49ers Week 13 2016 - Thoughts after rewatching the game...

• They
• Suck
• Bad

Originally posted by Marvin49:
Yeah...I like Tiller. Not sure whats up there.

Same. All Kelly's IZ runs are, are initial double-teams at the POA and then one G/C peeling off to block another on the second level (hell, even big Trenton Brown does that). Tiller has WAY more initial power at the POA vs. Beadles and he's certainly athletic enough to peel off, get to the second level and block the next wave or at least, get in the way with that big body. It's not like we're running some complicated zone scheme where we throw 10 screen passes a game, run some super complex zone blocking, pulling, crack-backing, etc. Plus Tiller/Brown had some excellent chemistry together on the right-side and were pancaking fools.

I would have LOVED to see: Staley - Garnett - Kilgore - Tiller - Brown

Every year we go through this crap with our coaches on personnel/scheme choices and every year we, as fans, end up being right. What gives?

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Marvin49:
Garrett.

Draft defense, sign offense.

I agree on Garrett.

It may prove difficult to sign offense with the current QB situation, at least as far as a wide out is concerned.

True, but far easier to sign offensive players to play on a Chip Kelly team than defensive players.

Originally posted by SoCold:

• They
• Suck
• Bad

Yes.

Originally posted by JDMathews49ers:

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Originally posted by solidg2000:
Dude, Kaepernick is completing less then 38% of his passes (not including the Miami game) in the 2nd half
Including the Miami game, he is completing 43% in the 2nd half
Kaep has had terrible games all the time

Didn't say he's been great. I said 1 for 5 with 5 sacks was a fluke.

I'm with you Marvin.

And 2016 has absolutely sucked.

Well my silver-lining is finding out my wife and I will be having a boy.

Grats! Named Colin?

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Disagree on their rushing offense. Take away QB runs and the OL does not seem to do a good job opening up holes and the YPC is not very good.

...don't really get this to be honest.

"Take away the QB runs". Huh? You can't do that. The QB running is part of the design of the offense. They had ZERO ability to move the ball in the air and still picked up chunks of yards in the run game.

The misdirection of the QB possibly keeping the ball and running is a part of the design.

I'm not trying to make out that they are world beaters or something, but there are MUCH, MUCH bigger fish to fry than the run game.

I'm sorry you don't get this.

I mean seriously...do we remove the rush yards from ALL teams with running QBs? Buffalo leads the NFL in rushing and Tyrod Taylor has 469 yards.

Cowboys and Titans are 2 and 3. Prescott has 217 yards and Mariota has 310. Do we remove ALL QB run stats from the teams that are good at running the ball or do we only do that with the 49ers to "prove" opinions we already hold?

Hyde has 686 yards despite missing two games and probably shouldn't have even suited up in a third. CERTAINLY not world beating numbers but as I've said before the run game hasn't been fantastic but it is FAR, FAR, FAR from the biggest problem right now.

Go take a look at all those teams YPC for their RBs vs the YPC carry for the Niners RBs. Notice how all those other teams not only have high YPC carry for their QBs, but also for their RBs? So forgive me if I'm not ecstatic that the only guys with above 4.0 YPC (sorry Harris and his 4.1 on 34 carries)are the QBs. That's not a true balanced rushing attack IMO

Originally posted by Nuns:

Originally posted by JDMathews49ers:

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Originally posted by solidg2000:

Dude, Kaepernick is completing less then 38% of his passes (not including the Miami game) in the 2nd half
Including the Miami game, he is completing 43% in the 2nd half
Kaep has had terrible games all the time

Didn't say he's been great. I said 1 for 5 with 5 sacks was a fluke.

I'm with you Marvin.

And 2016 has absolutely sucked.

Well my silver-lining is finding out my wife and I will be having a boy.

Grats! Named Colin?

Thanks. Nah...

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Disagree on their rushing offense. Take away QB runs and the OL does not seem to do a good job opening up holes and the YPC is not very good.

...don't really get this to be honest.

"Take away the QB runs". Huh? You can't do that. The QB running is part of the design of the offense. They had ZERO ability to move the ball in the air and still picked up chunks of yards in the run game.

The misdirection of the QB possibly keeping the ball and running is a part of the design.

I'm not trying to make out that they are world beaters or something, but there are MUCH, MUCH bigger fish to fry than the run game.

I'm sorry you don't get this.

I mean seriously...do we remove the rush yards from ALL teams with running QBs? Buffalo leads the NFL in rushing and Tyrod Taylor has 469 yards.

Cowboys and Titans are 2 and 3. Prescott has 217 yards and Mariota has 310. Do we remove ALL QB run stats from the teams that are good at running the ball or do we only do that with the 49ers to "prove" opinions we already hold?

Hyde has 686 yards despite missing two games and probably shouldn't have even suited up in a third. CERTAINLY not world beating numbers but as I've said before the run game hasn't been fantastic but it is FAR, FAR, FAR from the biggest problem right now.

Go take a look at all those teams YPC for their RBs vs the YPC carry for the Niners RBs. Notice how all those other teams not only have high YPC carry for their QBs, but also for their RBs? So forgive me if I'm not ecstatic that the only guys with above 4.0 YPC (sorry Harris and his 4.1 on 34 carries)are the QBs. That's not a true balanced rushing attack IMO

When the 49er QB gets yards from the zone read, that's a part of the run game. The OL is run blocking and the QB keeper is a function of the playcall. When the QB takes off scrambling, that's not a part of the running game. If there was a stat that kept track of this and differentiated between the two, it would help indetify just how many of the QB rushing yards are from designed QB runs. I don't consider scramble yards part of the rushing attack. The OL isn't run blocking, and scramble yards don't help playaction. It seems as though most of the QB rushing yards this season are from scrambles.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Disagree on their rushing offense. Take away QB runs and the OL does not seem to do a good job opening up holes and the YPC is not very good.

...don't really get this to be honest.

"Take away the QB runs". Huh? You can't do that. The QB running is part of the design of the offense. They had ZERO ability to move the ball in the air and still picked up chunks of yards in the run game.

The misdirection of the QB possibly keeping the ball and running is a part of the design.

I'm not trying to make out that they are world beaters or something, but there are MUCH, MUCH bigger fish to fry than the run game.

I'm sorry you don't get this.

I mean seriously...do we remove the rush yards from ALL teams with running QBs? Buffalo leads the NFL in rushing and Tyrod Taylor has 469 yards.

Cowboys and Titans are 2 and 3. Prescott has 217 yards and Mariota has 310. Do we remove ALL QB run stats from the teams that are good at running the ball or do we only do that with the 49ers to "prove" opinions we already hold?

Hyde has 686 yards despite missing two games and probably shouldn't have even suited up in a third. CERTAINLY not world beating numbers but as I've said before the run game hasn't been fantastic but it is FAR, FAR, FAR from the biggest problem right now.

Go take a look at all those teams YPC for their RBs vs the YPC carry for the Niners RBs. Notice how all those other teams not only have high YPC carry for their QBs, but also for their RBs? So forgive me if I'm not ecstatic that the only guys with above 4.0 YPC (sorry Harris and his 4.1 on 34 carries)are the QBs. That's not a true balanced rushing attack IMO

When the 49er QB gets yards from the zone read, that's a part of the run game. The OL is run blocking and the QB keeper is a function of the playcall. When the QB takes off scrambling, that's not a part of the running game. If there was a stat that kept track of this and differentiated between the two, it would help indetify just how many of the QB rushing yards are from designed QB runs. I don't consider scramble yards part of the rushing attack. The OL isn't run blocking, and scramble yards don't help playaction. It seems as though most of the QB rushing yards this season are from scrambles.

I was hoping you had that stat. That should be your next film breakdown ...but that is my issue, between the scrambles and the poor YPC for the RBs, I just think the Niners 4th rated rushing attack ranking is very skewed especially as it relates to other top rushing teams

Originally posted by JDMathews49ers:

This.

I know it's not fun breaking down film when the 49ers lose like that, but I would love to see what you have. What has me scratching my mostly is why wasn't pulling the trigger more?

Also does Fangio have Chip'a number? I think back to the Philly game a few years ago where they didn't cross the 50 until late in the game. I imagine with pattern matching, it took away a lot of those crossing routes.

I'm not cutting up anything from this game. I watched some of the film but there's nothing very interesting to take from it. Also, the All22 camera in Chicago has a terrible angle (low).

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
I was hoping you had that stat. That should be your next film breakdown ...but that is my issue, between the scrambles and the poor YPC for the RBs, I just think the Niners 4th rated rushing attack ranking is very skewed especially as it relates to other top rushing teams

We are ranked as the 10th team in DVOA for rushing offense which is a lot more indicative stat to how effective our run game is... It is still higher than I thought it would be... but it does show that we have had some success running the ball, plus we've gone up against a lot of the top run defenses this year.

Our pass DVOA is 29th in the league this year and overall we rank 23rd for offensive efficiency... Way way better than last year at least.

Originally posted by matguy87:
We are ranked as the 10th team in DVOA for rushing offense which is a lot more indicative stat to how effective our run game is... It is still higher than I thought it would be... but it does show that we have had some success running the ball, plus we've gone up against a lot of the top run defenses this year.

Our pass DVOA is 29th in the league this year and overall we rank 23rd for offensive efficiency... Way way better than last year at least.

Oh also, I think the rush DVOA is still skewed by the scrambles but no where near as much as simply looking at total yards.

Originally posted by matguy87:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

I was hoping you had that stat. That should be your next film breakdown ...but that is my issue, between the scrambles and the poor YPC for the RBs, I just think the Niners 4th rated rushing attack ranking is very skewed especially as it relates to other top rushing teams

We are ranked as the 10th team in DVOA for rushing offense which is a lot more indicative stat to how effective our run game is... It is still higher than I thought it would be... but it does show that we have had some success running the ball, plus we've gone up against a lot of the top run defenses this year.

Our pass DVOA is 29th in the league this year and overall we rank 23rd for offensive efficiency... Way way better than last year at least.

Thanks. That seems to be a good stat and 10th isn't bad. But does it differentiate between designed QB runs and scrambles? I still have a problem with that 3.7 YPC for their RBs though. I'm not too familiar with it, but going to look it up.
Edit: looks like you answered this thanks

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Sorry guys...work lately making it harder to get this out in a timely manner.

1) Kap: Yes, he had a rough day. Yes, It was statistically the worst passing performance by a Niner in like 50 years.

I think peeps need to chill a bit on that tho. The dude ATTEMPTED 5 passes and at least 2 were dropped. He was sacked 5 times. Meanwhile they ran for 122 years in the FIRST HALF. It was pretty clear that the gameplan was to run the hell out of the ball. I kept hearing during the game that he had never played in snow and that he would have to learn how to play in the cold...but it ain't exactly balmy in Reno in the winter. He didn't have much trouble in one of the coldest games on record vs the Packers in a playoff game a few years ago.

I dunno what was up with that game, but honestly I think that was more a fluke than anything else. Now I'm not saying to write it off completely but he had just had his best 4 game stretch in years. Perspective is in order.

Gabbert looked like Gabbert. Passes and players feet.


2) Running game/Media: I got into a short conversation with John Middlecoff via twitter during the game. His point was that he thought Chips running game was embarrassing because he stuck with the zone-read stuff when he should be running power in that weather. I really thought it an odd criticism when they were completely unable to pass the ball and at the time of the conversation they were on pace to rush for 250 yards.

His response was "watch the games"...as if I don't. Some other guy said that he was talking about all games, not just this one. Logically I said they've been able to run the game all year and rank 4th in the NFL in rushing. Johns response: "Garbage time yards". Wha? I have no idea what team he's been watching this year but the team I've been watching plays well in the first half when the game is in question and then completely falls apart in the second half. I said that BEFORE halftime of a game that was 7-6 and ended 26-6.

My point here is really about media narratives. The Niners suck this year. No two-ways about it...but why make sh*t up? They are bad enough all on their own without criticizing the ONE thing they do well.

Just annoyed me.


3) Hyde: Nice to see him running with power again. Doesn't seem to show signs of that injury. Hoping to see him finish strong.


4) Buckner: Yeah, that guy is getting like 2 seasons worth of seasoning in a single year. i see some plays where he just dominates and pushes his guy into the backfield and disrupts the entire play...and then I see him on the goal line get two high and get pushed back into the end zone easily. He's learning and he'll improve. These games are vital for his performance moving forward.


5) OLB: I really see NOTHING from this position group with Lynch out. Nothing. Brooks has some juice but he's short for this team. Eli? Tank? Yes, they've improved quite a bit vs the run, but there is almost ZERO pass rush to speak of.


6) WR: I really wanted to say something about the WRs....but Kap threw 5 passes. FIVE. WR is a need certainly but tough to say much of anything in that game.


7) DBs: DBs had a rough day, but tough to be too down on them as there were some stellar catches, but there were also some huge drops on plays where the Bears WR was wide open. Dos have plays well this year so some of this might be the conditions. We'll see how they play down the stretch.


8) Kelly: More and more I'm thinking I want to see him stay. I want to see him get another year with a few more players to see what he can do. They are moving the ball on the ground despite what Mr. Middlecoff thinks and up until this last game they were starting to move it in the air with a...shall we say suspect WR corps. They need a D Coordinator. I've read rumors that Fox may fire Vic in Chicago...hey a guy can dream, right. :)


9) Browns: Please win a damn game. Or 2.


10) 2016: This year has sucked in just about every conceivable way. From Celeb deaths to politics to my own job uncertainty to the worst statistical Niner season on record. THANK GOD its almost over.

I was hoping you'd also mention O'Neils game plan vs Fangio's. Fangio's understood the difficulty of covering receivers on a wet field and switched to zone. Oneil made zero adjustments, played Man defense and left his guys hanging.

The D is and always was the problem the entire season. It sucks. We need Myles Garrett and maybe a WR in the second round. We also need to make a big splash in free agency. If we don't Baalke's ass needs to go.

A front 7 of Armstead, Williams, Buckner, Lynch, Garrett, Bowman, and Armstrong sounds pretty good. And once OldToine Bethea is gone our secondary will be pretty good too.