Originally posted by blizzuntz:Originally posted by NCommand:Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:Because I'm a realist rather than a delusional fan who thinks this team is as good as 2011 or can win 13 games?
I've been a fan since I was little and will be a fan of the team my entire life, but in my opinion this team is better off long term if we end up with a high draft pick, so that's what I'm going to root for. I wouldn't follow these forums year round if I wasn't a fan of the team.
Ah yes, the "realist." LOL. Those realist lose a lot of money every year. This is life. This is parity. All you can do is play the probability game but every year, there are Cinderella stories. Every year. You just never know. To act like you do is ignorant. The premise for your stance is sound but 2011 is just another example of how off our own fans and Vegas and PFF can be. Way off. Could that happen again in 2016...in a rebuild? Not likely, but a little faith never hurts.
In general , Vegas is pretty close.
I'm sure they have the best in the business but what is close? +/- .5
The difference in just one game +/- can be huge.
To your point though, here's a great article on it.
We studied 12 years. Since there is a winner for every division, over the 12 years there must be 8 x 12 = 96 division winners. So how accurately did Vegas sportsbooks predict division winners? Well out of 96 actual division winners, they got 55 correct. That 55/96 equates to 57%. If I were a gambling man, I would rather bet on division winners than season win totals. Vegas is less accurate with their division winners than they are with their season win totals.
http://dantheman.sportsblog.com/posts/3915536/vegas-nfl-season-win-totals-are-astoundingly-accurate.html
[ Edited by NCommand on Jul 1, 2016 at 7:32 PM ]
