All22 analysis: Red Zone issues

#24
1st & Goal
Identical routes on each side. Back shoulder fade with a flat route underneath. Crabs vs Peterson to the left. VD versus Powers to the right.
ARI calls cover1 man


Kap takes the snap and immediately goes with the matchup of VD versus Powers on the back shoulder throw.


VD pins the ball against his face mask.


As VD tries to secure the catch, Powers knocks it out. Incomplete.


2nd & Goal
Three options for Kap on this play. WR screen to Crabs. Quick throw to Boldin. VD on a skinny post.
ARI calls cover1 man with a spy on Kap.


Kap sees the cushion being given to Boldin and quickly targets Boldin.


Boldin drops the pass. Not sure how much he could have done with the pass even if he had caught it. Incomplete.


3rd & Goal
Smash concept (Boldin/Crabs) out of a bunch formation on the left. The bunch is to get a rub effect. Back shoulder fade on the right (VD).
ARI calls cover1 man


ARI plays it well on the playside. Kap targets Crabs on the corner route and will get hit as soon as he releases the ball.


The pass sails high and incomplete. Bring in the FG unit.

Man that Tampa game, it looks like all the disruption was from the center position. I really hope Martin can fix that up for us.

Great work on the breakdowns. This was both good and bad to see; we really left a lot on the field.

thl408:
It seems that there are a variety of issues in the failures of our Red Zone package. It is also interesting that we are over 50% in the Red Zone as well. So not all that we do is defective. But if we tried to improve by 15% that would be quite an improvement. So is getting a new Center going to take care of 15% of the problem, better blocking by the Oline, better short yardage play by Hyde, or better design, better recognition of the defense, what are the things that can realistically be done to improve our Red Zone scoring by 10-15%?

Originally posted by GORO:
I hope that Snyder does not make the team.

^^^ What he said ^^^

#25
1st & Goal
Iupati will pull for guard lead right. The blue defender is coming on a blitz off the edge.


Due to the blue defender coming on a blitz and not having to pause to read run/pass, he beats Iupati to the spot and stops Gore in the backfield.


Gore for a loss of -3.


2nd & Goal
49ers run a triangle concept. Dixon with the curl. Boldin to the flat. Crabs on the out pattern in the end zone. The blue defender will play a role in stopping this play.
ARI calls cover1 man with a blitz up the middle.


ADavis does not block the blue defender and Dixon does not get a chip block (not sure if Dixon was supposed to as he has a pattern to run). The blue defender splits ADavis and Dixon and is quickly in the backfield as Kap rolls right.


Kap feels the pressure and can't focus on the routes developing. Crabs is about to cut to the outside to create a window of separation.


Crabs created some separation, but Kap is not in a good posture to throw due to the defender in his face. The window to throw this pass was actually a bit earlier than what's shown in this picture because anticipation throws are needed this close to the end zone.


Kap throws it away. Crabs is visibly upset after the play (not shown), but it's not Kap's fault he had immediate pressure in his face. Incomplete pass.


3rd & Goal
Kap reads blitz pre-snap and audibles (not shown).
ARI calls cover1 man with blitz pressure up the middle.


Peterson is very physical with the press coverage on Crabs. Kap takes a 3 step drop and targets Crabs on the slant. Kap is mid windup.


Pass is knocked down by two jumping defenders.


Incomplete pass. Bring in the FG unit.

Originally posted by Ninefan56:
thl408:
It seems that there are a variety of issues in the failures of our Red Zone package. It is also interesting that we are over 50% in the Red Zone as well. So not all that we do is defective. But if we tried to improve by 15% that would be quite an improvement. So is getting a new Center going to take care of 15% of the problem, better blocking by the Oline, better short yardage play by Hyde, or better design, better recognition of the defense, what are the things that can realistically be done to improve our Red Zone scoring by 10-15%?

I agree that there are various points of failure on every different set of downs. Untimely play calling, bad play design, poor execution by a certain player, slow QB reads, or just good defense. Every st of downs where the 49ers failed to score 6 had it's own main point of failure. I'll try to somehow quantify them based on my own personal observations as I review the breakdowns later. Then I will feel better about giving an honest evaluation.

Getting a new Center will have a domino effect as Kap will get more time and Gore will have better rushing lanes in the interior of the Oline, which is where he excels - between the tackles. Although getting a new Center doesn't necessarily mean getting a better center because I know nothing of how Kilgore will play at Center and MMartin is a rookie so we can all hope he's better, but none of us are sure. Kilgore was always the 2nd/3rd TE in the Jumbo packages, never getting any meaningful snaps at Center.

With all the regular season red zone opportunities shown, I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks. I'll break down the playoff opportunities as well.

Originally posted by thl408:
There seems to be a discrepancy between the article I referenced in the first post from Eric Branch and my count of failed red zone TD conversion.

Branch stated: they scored touchdowns on 31 of 55 red-zone trips (56.4 percent)

By his count, that's 24 red zone possessions that resulted in not scoring a TD. I am about to cutup #24 and I see #25 already. I'll try to see what happened. It's possible his count is wrong .

So I counted 25 red zone opportunities that failed to get a TD. This is one more than what Eric Branch cited in his article (success rate of 56.4%). I now know that his count only includes the regular season. I'll double check what I posted to see if I made an error.

The website I cited in the first post said the 49ers were successful at 53%. My guess is that includes the playoffs. I'll will cut up the playoff failures in the upcoming days.

Originally posted by thl408:

I agree that there are various points of failure on every different set of downs. Untimely play calling, bad play design, poor execution by a certain player, slow QB reads, or just good defense. Every st of downs where the 49ers failed to score 6 had it's own main point of failure. I'll try to somehow quantify them based on my own personal observations as I review the breakdowns later. Then I will feel better about giving an honest evaluation.

Getting a new Center will have a domino effect as Kap will get more time and Gore will have better rushing lanes in the interior of the Oline, which is where he excels - between the tackles. Although getting a new Center doesn't necessarily mean getting a better center because I know nothing of how Kilgore will play at Center and MMartin is a rookie so we can all hope he's better, but none of us are sure. Kilgore was always the 2nd/3rd TE in the Jumbo packages, never getting any meaningful snaps at Center.

With all the regular season red zone opportunities shown, I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks. I'll break down the playoff opportunities as well.

For starters, thanks for doing this. I appreciate the time and effort you take to fully detail this.

I surveyed just the first down plays for our redzone failures and just for information purposes I counted 10 first Down passes and 15 first down runs. Now when I counted if it was a designed pass, I counted it as a pass even if kaep ran. So we pretty much stayed true to our 60% first down run number for what's it worth. Again I know this number can and was inflated by game situations, but I feel especially in the red zone throwing a little more on first could help keep the team ahead of the sticks.

Just as an aside, I loved the l.james jet sweep play vs Tampa. I think that has so many old school WCO/spilt back play action/waggle stuff that can be run from it and really utilize kaeps legs.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Ninefan56:
thl408:
It seems that there are a variety of issues in the failures of our Red Zone package. It is also interesting that we are over 50% in the Red Zone as well. So not all that we do is defective. But if we tried to improve by 15% that would be quite an improvement. So is getting a new Center going to take care of 15% of the problem, better blocking by the Oline, better short yardage play by Hyde, or better design, better recognition of the defense, what are the things that can realistically be done to improve our Red Zone scoring by 10-15%?

I agree that there are various points of failure on every different set of downs. Untimely play calling, bad play design, poor execution by a certain player, slow QB reads, or just good defense. Every st of downs where the 49ers failed to score 6 had it's own main point of failure. I'll try to somehow quantify them based on my own personal observations as I review the breakdowns later. Then I will feel better about giving an honest evaluation.

Getting a new Center will have a domino effect as Kap will get more time and Gore will have better rushing lanes in the interior of the Oline, which is where he excels - between the tackles. Although getting a new Center doesn't necessarily mean getting a better center because I know nothing of how Kilgore will play at Center and MMartin is a rookie so we can all hope he's better, but none of us are sure. Kilgore was always the 2nd/3rd TE in the Jumbo packages, never getting any meaningful snaps at Center.

With all the regular season red zone opportunities shown, I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks. I'll break down the playoff opportunities as well.

That's exactly what I've seen throughout the year and in my offseason watching as well. It's frustrating but also provides hope because there were no "red flag" guys - where you could point to and say, "that's why we sucked!!!!" It felt like the offense as a whole couldn't really put it all together at the right times. It felt like a lot of the guys played great 9/10 times but they'd all have their 1/10 on different plays. And, we all know that it takes all 11 guys to succeed. I think all of our guys can take their game to another level next year and am hopeful it will happen. If this team can put it all together and get all the little things and start flowing in sync - the players aren't joking when they say "the sky's the limit".

Originally posted by jonnydel:

That's exactly what I've seen throughout the year and in my offseason watching as well. It's frustrating but also provides hope because there were no "red flag" guys - where you could point to and say, "that's why we sucked!!!!" It felt like the offense as a whole couldn't really put it all together at the right times. It felt like a lot of the guys played great 9/10 times but they'd all have their 1/10 on different plays. And, we all know that it takes all 11 guys to succeed. I think all of our guys can take their game to another level next year and am hopeful it will happen. If this team can put it all together and get all the little things and start flowing in sync - the players aren't joking when they say "the sky's the limit".

This is so true. If they do find this next level we will be an absolute juggernaut (assuming defense stays strong). On paper, there are a lot of tough match ups on this offense. My guts feel is we will all be pleased with what we witness on the offensive side of the ball this year.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Ninefan56:

thl408:
It seems that there are a variety of issues in the failures of our Red Zone package. It is also interesting that we are over 50% in the Red Zone as well. So not all that we do is defective. But if we tried to improve by 15% that would be quite an improvement. So is getting a new Center going to take care of 15% of the problem, better blocking by the Oline, better short yardage play by Hyde, or better design, better recognition of the defense, what are the things that can realistically be done to improve our Red Zone scoring by 10-15%?

I agree that there are various points of failure on every different set of downs. Untimely play calling, bad play design, poor execution by a certain player, slow QB reads, or just good defense. Every st of downs where the 49ers failed to score 6 had it's own main point of failure. I'll try to somehow quantify them based on my own personal observations as I review the breakdowns later. Then I will feel better about giving an honest evaluation.

Getting a new Center will have a domino effect as Kap will get more time and Gore will have better rushing lanes in the interior of the Oline, which is where he excels - between the tackles. Although getting a new Center doesn't necessarily mean getting a better center because I know nothing of how Kilgore will play at Center and MMartin is a rookie so we can all hope he's better, but none of us are sure. Kilgore was always the 2nd/3rd TE in the Jumbo packages, never getting any meaningful snaps at Center.

With all the regular season red zone opportunities shown, I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks. I'll break down the playoff opportunities as well.

Some takeaways for me from this excellent analysis thread.
1. Avoid penalties in the redzone
2. Offense has to deal much better with cover zero defense and a high pressure disruptive pass rush.
3. Colin just has to be better in going to his 2nd and 3rd options because defenses are doing a good job taking his first option away in the red zone. If Colin can see the entire field instead of just half of it, defenses will have a tougher time defending the horizontal passing attack in the red zone.

Things that I think will help us improve in the red zone. Carlos hyde is a big back that can hopefully move piles in the endzone. This will help short yardage as well as play action passes. Colin improving his anticipation passes in the endzone. A stronger and deeper O-line, specially at center should help bolster the inside run game in the red zone. More options at WR (stevie and ellington) can enable more mixed personnel groupings to catch the defense in a bad situation substitution that close to the goal line.

If vance can improve that will make the three tight end play action pass more potent because the defense will be concentrating on VD. Vance is a big guy with excellent verticals and so why not use him on endzone jump balls. Speed is not very important in the red zone. Size strength and quickness matter more down there so I think Stevie and Vance will be key to getting more passing TD'S down there.

Originally posted by Giedi:
Some takeaways for me from this excellent analysis thread.
1. Avoid penalties in the redzone
2. Offense has to deal much better with cover zero defense and a high pressure disruptive pass rush.
3. Colin just has to be better in going to his 2nd and 3rd options because defenses are doing a good job taking his first option away in the red zone. If Colin can see the entire field instead of just half of it, defenses will have a tougher time defending the horizontal passing attack in the red zone.

Things that I think will help us improve in the red zone. Carlos hyde is a big back that can hopefully move piles in the endzone. This will help short yardage as well as play action passes. Colin improving his anticipation passes in the endzone. A stronger and deeper O-line, specially at center should help bolster the inside run game in the red zone. More options at WR (stevie and ellington) can enable more mixed personnel groupings to catch the defense in a bad situation substitution that close to the goal line.

If vance can improve that will make the three tight end play action pass more potent because the defense will be concentrating on VD. Vance is a big guy with excellent verticals and so why not use him on endzone jump balls. Speed is not very important in the red zone. Size strength and quickness matter more down there so I think Stevie and Vance will be key to getting more passing TD'S down there.

Nice take, Giedi. The penalties got me looking at which RZ opportunities had penalties called and I think I spotted where my count and the count in Eric Branch's article differ. It is failed chance #13 (post #69). The 49ers start off at the 20 yard line, but commit a holding penalty which pushes them to 1st &20 at the 30 yard line. My guess is that it is now no longer a RZ opportunity. My count and Branch's count differed by 1 (I counted one more). This is probably that one. Still, I count it as a RZ opportunity because at one point they were at the 20 which constitutes a RZ count, then they made a mistake by committing a penalty.

About the high pressure rush, that is a solid tactic to use against young QBs in the red zone. Pressure with blitz and rely on the CBs to man up (cover0/cover1). If we are talking about passing plays, I think the heavy load falls on the shoulder's of Kap to make quicker decisions and better anticipation throws. Throwing before the WR makes his break and make decisions based on the leverage of the CB versus the WR. Once the WR makes his break, most of the time it is too late to throw that pass.

#26 (#1 of playoffs)

1st & Goal
Play action roll right


The blue defender does not bite on the play fake by Kap, or the run block fake by VD.




Kap throws it to VD as VD works his way back towards the middle. CB breaks it up.


Incomplete


2nd & Goal
Play fake, rollout right. Triangle concept


Osgood and VD are held up at the line as Kap completes a play fake and rolls right.


Gore's block gets the defender on the ground. Kap has time, but no one becomes open as he runs out of field to roll right. Thrown away for an incomplete pass.


3rd & Goal
Back shoulder fades on each side.


Kap selects the matchup of Crabs versus House.


Bring on the FG unit.

Originally posted by thl408:

#26 (#1 of playoffs)

1st & Goal
Play action roll right


The blue defender does not bite on the play fake by Kap, or the run block fake by VD.




Kap throws it to VD as VD works his way back towards the middle. CB breaks it up.


Incomplete


2nd & Goal
Play fake, rollout right. Triangle concept


Osgood and VD are held up at the line as Kap completes a play fake and rolls right.


Gore's block gets the defender on the ground. Kap has time, but no one becomes open as he runs out of field to roll right. Thrown away for an incomplete pass.


3rd & Goal
Back shoulder fades on each side.


Kap selects the matchup of Crabs versus House.


Bring on the FG unit.

I remember this series. Looking at this makes me cringe. Look at that last play, never takes his eyes off Crabtree then throws a pretty poor pass. And that first one really should have been picked