I don't see what the big deal is. Smith has 7.5 sacks playing on 3rd downs and Von Miller, who is amazing and will win DROY for sure, has 10.5 playing full time. He played OLB in college so he is more ready for the role whereas Smith is transitioning to OLB from DE and isn't quite yet the all round player yet to play full time in this defense which is the best in the NFL. Different situations.
If he'd been drafted by Denver instead of Von Miller he certainly would be starting and would very likely have 10.5 sacks or more given the chance to play full time. Probably not as many tackles though, as he is still learning the linebacker position. I can't understand why fans shouldn't be excited about Aldon Smith with what he's done so far, he looks like a tremendously disruptive player who has the chance to be something special. I don't see anyone claiming that he should be all-pro, DROY (although it was a legit conversation a few weeks ago when he had more sacks than Miller), or MVP.
The very simple logic us Aldon Smith lovers are using is that once he has the linebacker skills down and play full time, he has the chance to be a monster pass rusher for years to come. It's been a long time since the niners had a consistent pro bowl level pass rusher.
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Aldon Smith vs Oher
Dec 2, 2011 at 11:13 AM
- KowboyKiller
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Dec 3, 2011 at 1:37 AM
- Eskendale
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Originally posted by KowboyKiller:
I don't see what the big deal is. Smith has 7.5 sacks playing on 3rd downs and Von Miller, who is amazing and will win DROY for sure, has 10.5 playing full time. He played OLB in college so he is more ready for the role whereas Smith is transitioning to OLB from DE and isn't quite yet the all round player yet to play full time in this defense which is the best in the NFL. Different situations.
If he'd been drafted by Denver instead of Von Miller he certainly would be starting and would very likely have 10.5 sacks or more given the chance to play full time. Probably not as many tackles though, as he is still learning the linebacker position. I can't understand why fans shouldn't be excited about Aldon Smith with what he's done so far, he looks like a tremendously disruptive player who has the chance to be something special. I don't see anyone claiming that he should be all-pro, DROY (although it was a legit conversation a few weeks ago when he had more sacks than Miller), or MVP.
The very simple logic us Aldon Smith lovers are using is that once he has the linebacker skills down and play full time, he has the chance to be a monster pass rusher for years to come. It's been a long time since the niners had a consistent pro bowl level pass rusher.
My problem, as others have stated, is that people are diminishing the accomplishments of other players in order to make Aldon Smith look better. Using the profootball focus metric (described in the excerpt below), Von Miller has lead the league quarterback knockdowns. Furthermore, he has lead the league in combined sacks and QB knockdowns. For all the games Aldon Smith has come in as a back-up, he has only 64 less pass-rushing attempts than Von Miller, 302-238. Let's also throw out the fact that Von Miller has greatly contributed to Denver's recent string of victories, coming in big for the Broncos when it has mattered in run defense, pass rushing, and other aspects of the game. Aldon Smith shouldn't win DROY, if only for the simple reason that sacks alone are NOT good measurement of how good a player really is and how much he means to the team. The game saving plays Justin Smith made will not show up with an asterisk, but that forced fumble and tipped pass made all the difference in the world because of the time at which they occurred. Justin Smith for DPOY? More logical than the casual fan would think, but most only look at stats and sack numbers, especially if they don't watch games.
Sometimes you need to leave the homeland in order to find wisdom, and thus I reference the 49ers.com webforum concerning how sack numbers are no great indicator of actual impact in play. http://forums.49ers.com/messageboard/showthread.php?p=4197858#post4197858
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/11/30/pass-rushing-productivity-the-story-so-far/
From the profootball focus article:
"The sack stat. Also known as the bane of my existence. Every day I get emails or tweets where someone references how many sacks a player has as the sole reason why they deserve recognition. It's like a sack is the only way a pass rusher can impact a game, forgetting how pressure also impacts the decision-making and accuracy of a quarterback. Now pressure doesn't guarantee a negative play like a sack, but look at it this way: Aaron Rodgers completes 76.1% of passes when he isn't pressured, and completes "just" 54.4% when he is. It's a universal truth for all QBs that getting pressured makes them far more inaccurate. So we devised our own pass rushing formula back after the 2008 season. Given that we are the only people to break down how many times a player rushes the passer we felt the best way of figure out the most productive pass rusher was to use that data, along with our sacks, hits and hurries counts, to give us a magical figure known as Pass Rushing Productivity. A simple formula that looks something like this: Sacks + 0.75 (Hits + Hurries)/ Number of Snaps Rushing The Passer * 100 That's enough math for now. Shall we get to the interesting stuff and look at the pass rushers who have gone after the QB at least 200 times? Leading the Way If you had to guess the most productive pass rusher in the NFL on a per-snap basis, who would be the first guy you think of? Some of you may go for Dwight Freeney (17th), others may look at those with the big sack numbers like DeMarcus Ware (11th) or Jared Allen (43rd). You'd all be wrong because actually the most productive pass rusher in the NFL is Carlos Dunlap. On 202 pass rushing attempts he's picked-up just three sacks, but a staggering 11 hits and 24 hurries. Granted most of this has been in the Bengals sub-package defense so he'd afforded more opportunity to pin his ears back, but that shouldn't discount from what he has done. Dunlap, with his 15.47 PRP rating, has narrowly held off the challenge of rookie sensation Von Miller who is third in the league in total pressure (55 combined sacks, hits and hurries) and second in the PRP rankings. What makes Miller's score all the more remarkable is how heavily weighted his pressure is towards bringing the QB down. His 29 QB knockdowns (hits and sacks) are six better than the man in second place in this regard (Andre Carter). These numbers add a lot of statistical evidence to what we've been saying since Week 1; Miller is a special talent. The two men with the most QB disruptions in the NFL, Chris Long and Cameron Wake, join Dunlap, Miller and Trent Cole in a Top 5 short of the established names that have become synonymous with this list. Players like last years' leader Tamba Hali (20th) and the man with the best rating between 2008 and 2010 John Abraham (12th) aren't far off the pace, but they're having to contend with a new class of rushers looking to make an impact. That includes plenty of rookies featuring in the Top 25, with Miller joined by the excellent Aldon Smith (10th), relentless Ryan Kerrigan (18th), and often-overlooked Robert Quinn (21st). Let's take a look at the overall Top 25."
Here is a link to another page about Aldon http://forums.49ers.com/messageboard/showthread.php?t=124259
[ Edited by Eskendale on Dec 3, 2011 at 2:26 AM ]
Dec 3, 2011 at 2:21 AM
- Eskendale
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The amount of pressure and productivity that Justin Smith generates for the amount of snaps he plays is simply mind-boggling. I know that others have been saying that Aldon will be amazing if he just has more time, but if Justin Smith is the definition of amazing, then we must give all due deference to the journey Aldon must take in order to get to that level. It's not just simple extrapolation and voila, but I sure hope we can have a team of 11 Justin Smiths. Feel confident about our front seven, but we need a guy like that in our secondary, a relentless play-maker.
What the profootballfocus metric does, like most metrics, is that gives another dimension by which one can look at a single problem, pass-rushing performance, confirming what in general must be true. For example, Cameron Wake had 14 sacks last year for Miami, but many could have correctly extrapolated this performance from the fact that he was an absolute sacking-machine in the CFL, being a two-time defensive player of the year. This year he has 6.5 sacks. Does that mean that Aldon Smith is having a better year than him? NO!!!!!! Cameron Wake ranks at the top in QB pressures and hits, meaning that even though he's not getting there he is still have a hell of an impact on the game. It also means that in his year post-beasthood that he is facing more attention (on a team that doesn't have a Justin Smith or Ray McDonald or Ahmad Brooks) and still is able to get close to sacking the QB.
What the profootballfocus metric does, like most metrics, is that gives another dimension by which one can look at a single problem, pass-rushing performance, confirming what in general must be true. For example, Cameron Wake had 14 sacks last year for Miami, but many could have correctly extrapolated this performance from the fact that he was an absolute sacking-machine in the CFL, being a two-time defensive player of the year. This year he has 6.5 sacks. Does that mean that Aldon Smith is having a better year than him? NO!!!!!! Cameron Wake ranks at the top in QB pressures and hits, meaning that even though he's not getting there he is still have a hell of an impact on the game. It also means that in his year post-beasthood that he is facing more attention (on a team that doesn't have a Justin Smith or Ray McDonald or Ahmad Brooks) and still is able to get close to sacking the QB.
[ Edited by Eskendale on Dec 3, 2011 at 2:57 AM ]
Dec 3, 2011 at 3:19 AM
- Eskendale
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Dec 3, 2011 at 4:11 AM
- BrianGO
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Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You cannot see that many people downplay an off game by Smith with excuses, because you refuse to read them. You want to see them, then just open your eyes. I challenge you, and anyone else, to go through Aldon Smith threads, and count the myriad of excuses for a game that is not that productive." If this", "If that" is what you get, which I am sure has a powerful and profound influence on voters for the DROY award.
Let me get this straight, since it appears you may be having problems understanding English these days: The Broncos would be stupid to trade Miller for Smith. No, not stupid, idiotic. Miller is a stud right now. Smith has potential to be a stud. They are two completely different leagues right now. It is not close. Only the most brash homer would say that Smith is the better player, or the one they would rather have on their team.
As for bothering, you have been my own personal stalker for who knows how long now, so when I make a comment on the board, please feel free to bypass attacking me if you are so "bothered".
What is the debate going on right now?
Which of these statements is wrong?
1. Miller is better than Smith right now.
2. Smith's sack production PER SNAP is close to, if not equal to Miller's.
3. Because Smith is making such a big transition from college, he is much more raw than Miller right now.
4. Because Smith is raw, he has a chance to get even better.
5. If not for Von Miller, Aldon Smith would be a very strong candidate for DROY.
What is there to not be excited about?
Miller is one of the most amazing OLB's to come out since Merriman. I am confused as to how this diminishes Aldon Smith's performance.
Dec 3, 2011 at 4:35 AM
- English
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We have great Smiths!
Dec 3, 2011 at 8:02 AM
- father49er
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Originally posted by English:
We have great Smiths!
Dec 4, 2011 at 3:57 PM
- Sunshine
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LMFAO! Sucks to suck!
Dec 4, 2011 at 4:07 PM
- Hoovtrain
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Originally posted by Baugh_Area:LMFAO! Sucks to suck!
Meh. I'd rather have Watt
Dec 4, 2011 at 4:16 PM
- dtg_9er
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His bull rush today was something we haven't see a SF LB do for...ever? What I love most about Aldon Smith is that he will be playing next to J Smith, Sopoaga and McDonald. That group, along with Willis, Bowman...wow!
Dec 4, 2011 at 6:06 PM
- Sunshine
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Originally posted by dtg_9er:
His bull rush today was something we haven't see a SF LB do for...ever? What I love most about Aldon Smith is that he will be playing next to J Smith, Sopoaga and McDonald. That group, along with Willis, Bowman...wow!
Damnit, i just finished getting the NFC west jizz shot off my pants, now I gotta go back to work
Dec 5, 2011 at 7:59 AM
- genus49
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Very similar move this week, except I believe against Baltimore it was a delayed rush. Yesterday he went right at the LT. That sack was pure beauty.
Dec 5, 2011 at 8:27 AM
- lamontb
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Originally posted by genus49:
Very similar move this week, except I believe against Baltimore it was a delayed rush. Yesterday he went right at the LT. That sack was pure beauty.
that bull rush brought a tear to my eyes
Dec 6, 2011 at 10:02 AM
- Wodwo
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- Posts: 8,476
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Actually, you've got it backwards.
You're just now saying what many of the rest of this board have been saying all along: Aldon Smith's got great potential (and was well worth the 7th pick).
Nobody on this board has been throwing a "mountain of accolades" at Aldon Smith. That's a gross overstatement, hyperbole compounded.
It's just another of the many straw men you so often set up so you can knock it down, and thereby belittle the "many [anonymous, non-existent] board members" you're pretending might have actually said this.
Thus you go to great extremes, and insult virtually the entire board, to try to make yourself look better, and in this case to try to backpeddle from your initial criticism of the Aldon Smith pick.
Its sad, really.
Now stop bothering me.
Beating dead horse once again: If you read my draft review, you will notice that I stated that Smith has a ton of potential, but that I felt he was not worth the risk at number seven, even though I had him as the top OLB on my board when the team picked. I saw him as a player down the board a bit, and that other players were better options for the team. Hence, the C grade, not an F grade. Nobody is saying the pick is a disaster. I leave that to my analysis of Taylor Mays and Chilo Rachal.
Many on the board simply cannot accept the fact that when he has an off day, that he is having an off day. Excuses are thrown his way..."if the QB held the ball three more seconds, "if he had more playing time", "if this" and "if that". Right now, the past few games, he is not producing in the main role assigned to him, get to the QB. It doesn't mean his career is doomed, it just means he is up and down. Meanwhile, guys like Von Miller, who are consistently chewing up offenses, would not be traded if Smith was offered? That is the sentiment by a lot of people on this thread, which to me, is crazy talk.
As for your previous statements on JJ Watt, you are not being intellectually honest when reading my writing. Nobody has stated that Watt is single-handedly changing the Texans' defense. However, he in undeniably a giant piece in the transformation, and he is emerging as one of the better 3-4 DE's in the game as a rookie, not a guy who is coming off the bench in nickle situations. The impact of a Watt, Kerrigan, Miller, is much greater than Smith. You would surely not deny that, would you?
Dec 6, 2011 at 10:15 AM
- oldninerdude
- Veteran
- Posts: 4,330
Originally posted by Wodwo:Hilarious.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Actually, you've got it backwards.
You're just now saying what many of the rest of this board have been saying all along: Aldon Smith's got great potential (and was well worth the 7th pick).
Nobody on this board has been throwing a "mountain of accolades" at Aldon Smith. That's a gross overstatement, hyperbole compounded.
It's just another of the many straw men you so often set up so you can knock it down, and thereby belittle the "many [anonymous, non-existent] board members" you're pretending might have actually said this.
Thus you go to great extremes, and insult virtually the entire board, to try to make yourself look better, and in this case to try to backpeddle from your initial criticism of the Aldon Smith pick.
Its sad, really.
Now stop bothering me.
Beating dead horse once again: If you read my draft review, you will notice that I stated that Smith has a ton of potential, but that I felt he was not worth the risk at number seven, even though I had him as the top OLB on my board when the team picked. I saw him as a player down the board a bit, and that other players were better options for the team. Hence, the C grade, not an F grade. Nobody is saying the pick is a disaster. I leave that to my analysis of Taylor Mays and Chilo Rachal.
Many on the board simply cannot accept the fact that when he has an off day, that he is having an off day. Excuses are thrown his way..."if the QB held the ball three more seconds, "if he had more playing time", "if this" and "if that". Right now, the past few games, he is not producing in the main role assigned to him, get to the QB. It doesn't mean his career is doomed, it just means he is up and down. Meanwhile, guys like Von Miller, who are consistently chewing up offenses, would not be traded if Smith was offered? That is the sentiment by a lot of people on this thread, which to me, is crazy talk.
As for your previous statements on JJ Watt, you are not being intellectually honest when reading my writing. Nobody has stated that Watt is single-handedly changing the Texans' defense. However, he in undeniably a giant piece in the transformation, and he is emerging as one of the better 3-4 DE's in the game as a rookie, not a guy who is coming off the bench in nickle situations. The impact of a Watt, Kerrigan, Miller, is much greater than Smith. You would surely not deny that, would you?
A gif that keeps on giving!