Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

The one thing I have always argued, which has been completely dismissed by the Jimmy homers and dating back to the Alex Smith homers, is that short passes are exponentially easier to improve on than long passes.

Originally posted by 4ML:

Can you hear the music, Trey Lance?💥 #49ers pic.twitter.com/FKN6VM9xfP

— Chris Polo (@ChrisPolo__) August 6, 2023

Originally posted by 4ML:

Can you hear the music, Trey Lance?💥 #49ers pic.twitter.com/FKN6VM9xfP

— Chris Polo (@ChrisPolo__) August 6, 2023

Some nice looking throws by Trey in this video!! I hope he shines when he gets on the field!!!

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
The one thing I have always argued, which has been completely dismissed by the Jimmy homers and dating back to the Alex Smith homers, is that short passes are exponentially easier to improve on than long passes.

I am not sure I agree. Do you have anything to support your argument?

Originally posted by GoreGoreGore:

Originally posted by 4ML:

Can you hear the music, Trey Lance?💥 #49ers pic.twitter.com/FKN6VM9xfP

— Chris Polo (@ChrisPolo__) August 6, 2023

You just triggered Jose

Haha Furlow's still reviewing the # of revolutions and ball spin. Can't wait to see his latest report.

Originally posted by libertyforever:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
The one thing I have always argued, which has been completely dismissed by the Jimmy homers and dating back to the Alex Smith homers, is that short passes are exponentially easier to improve on than long passes.

I am not sure I agree. Do you have anything to support your argument?

I don't. Sure seems like common sense though.

Originally posted by libertyforever:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
The one thing I have always argued, which has been completely dismissed by the Jimmy homers and dating back to the Alex Smith homers, is that short passes are exponentially easier to improve on than long passes.

I am not sure I agree. Do you have anything to support your argument?

That seems like a common sense thing to me.....

Short flight time of the ball just just naturally keeps the ball in a smaller catch radius.

I also think timing and rhythm would be much easier, most short passing is based on timing....making many throws to an area very soon after the plant foot drops. The pocket is normally in the best shape it can be.

Deep throws? who knows, pocket might be falling apart, dead time waiting, feet might be rushed when someone flashes open.... seems to me more complicated.

A lot of stuff has to go right the deeper that ball needs to go.

Want to improve the deep ball? You need opportunity to start with, so you need a line. You also need targets that will give you an opportunity as well....so yeah you need speed, AND catching ability. There are normally only a handful of grade A deep threats in the NFL at a time.

Originally posted by libertyforever:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
The one thing I have always argued, which has been completely dismissed by the Jimmy homers and dating back to the Alex Smith homers, is that short passes are exponentially easier to improve on than long passes.

I am not sure I agree. Do you have anything to support your argument?

Improving your layup game is easier than improving your 3-pt shooting.

Drew Brees broke the comp % record twice as his passes became shorter, right?

Quarterbacks are throwing the ball quicker than in any era in history. Last season was the first since Pro Football Focus started tracking throwing time in 2011 that no starter took 2.6 seconds or more to throw on 60 percent of his passes. There were 10 quarterbacks who got rid of the ball faster in 2016 than anyone did in 2012. The number of players who have a quarterback rating over 90 on these quick passes has doubled to 20 last season from when the statistic was introduced in 2011.

...Eli Manning led the NFL in percentage of passes thrown in under 2.5 seconds last year after being among the worst in the league four years earlier. Nearly everyone is trending toward shorter passes. In his 230 attempts last season before an injury, Aaron Rodgers was throwing nearly 2 yards fewer per play than he was in 2016, according to AirYards. Joe Flacco is throwing 3 yards fewer in the air per pass than he did in 2012, which seems impossible, but here we are.

https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2018/7/30/17629632/two-seconds-or-less-speed-fast-pass-rush-philadelphia-eagles-pittsburgh-steelers

You're not going to find these same types of trends with throwing farther.

Per PFF...

ACCURACY RATE OVER EXPECTED (AROE)
Short Description

Accuracy is an important part of quarterback play, and PFF currently charts ball placement as a part of its grading process. However, it's easier to be accurate when the pass is shorter and the receiver is open, so AROE adjusts for that to give an expected accuracy rate for an average quarterback, given the circumstances.

Long Description
Accuracy rate over expected was again created using an extreme gradient boosting model. The most important factor for determining expected accuracy was the pass depth, as passes with fewer air yards are usually more accurate. Another factor is the standard of coverage, which ranges from the receiver being "wide open" to the coverage being "tight." Using AROE is more predictive than completion percentage over expected (CPOE), as it doesn't need the receiver to complete their side of the pass. The quarterback just has to be accurate.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by libertyforever:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
The one thing I have always argued, which has been completely dismissed by the Jimmy homers and dating back to the Alex Smith homers, is that short passes are exponentially easier to improve on than long passes.

I am not sure I agree. Do you have anything to support your argument?

I don't. Sure seems like common sense though.

If you see it as just completing a pass, sure.

However, that is not it. For short passes especially, it is important to hit the receiver on stride for YAC. You want those short passes to be as perfect as possible, with just the right amount of touch to make it easier for the receiver. Just catchable is not enough. In that sense, I disagree with you.

Originally posted by libertyforever:
If you see it as just completing a pass, sure.

However, that is not it. For short passes especially, it is important to hit the receiver on stride for YAC.

This also improves exponentially the shorter the pass is. Not sure what u are trying to say.

Originally posted by libertyforever:

U want those short passes to be as perfect as possible, not just catchable. In that sense, I disagree with you.

You want ALL passes to be as perfect as possible,... No?

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by libertyforever:
If you see it as just completing a pass, sure.

However, that is not it. For short passes especially, it is important to hit the receiver on stride for YAC.

This also improves exponentially the shorter the pass is. Not sure what u are trying to say.

Originally posted by libertyforever:

U want those short passes to be as perfect as possible, not just catchable. In that sense, I disagree with you.

You want ALL passes to be as perfect as possible,... No?

It is easier to be more accurate the shorter the throw if you look at it like a basketball hoop, but I disagree because the hoop should not be the same size. The longer the throw the more time for the receiver to make adjustments.

Originally posted by libertyforever:
It is easier to be more accurate the shorter the throw if you look at it like a basketball hoop, but I disagree because the hoop should not be the same size. The longer the throw the more time for the receiver to make adjustments.

The more time for the coverage to adjust to the ball as well... Which is ALOT more of a problem the farther a pass travels.

This is in the context of actually playing against opposition, right?

And btw...i can look at it like a football as well. Stats, trends, and charts have been given,...and plenty more are out there if you need to see that short passes are easier.

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I think it is quite the opposite. Trey lost his starting job due to a 7th round rookie who played exceptional while he was rehabbing. Now he is battling for the #2 spot with a 4th year journey man with a similar draft status. He for sure feels the pressure. Hopefully it creates a diamond out of him.

i like your take better and I hope that's the case, we want someone that doesn't tighten up when the pressure is on!

He played his best game as a pro in a must win game. Some are quick to dismiss that game because it was vs the Texans but forget the pressure of that game. Had we lost we don't make the playoffs in any scenario the following week.

It's pretty obvious why Trey is making a significant improvement. He's healthy and put in the work which is very clear to see as far as his mechanics. He's also in his 3rd year in the offense. He SHOULD be improved so I'm not sure why some of you are surprised and questioning why.

Originally posted by Patton:

Originally posted by 4ML:

Can you hear the music, Trey Lance?💥 #49ers pic.twitter.com/FKN6VM9xfP

— Chris Polo (@ChrisPolo__) August 6, 2023

Some nice looking throws by Trey in this video!! I hope he shines when he gets on the field!!!

It's wild to see the hatful comments in that tweet. I've never seen someone get hated on so bad by his own fan base. whatever with people outside of the 49er fan base. That's just what football does.

Dude does everything you want your QB to do. He's nothing but professional and supportive of everyone. He puts in all the work you want the QB to do. He sounds like a great all around human being and yet the hate is next level. Pretty f**king pathetic imo.

Originally posted by libertyforever:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
The one thing I have always argued, which has been completely dismissed by the Jimmy homers and dating back to the Alex Smith homers, is that short passes are exponentially easier to improve on than long passes.

I am not sure I agree. Do you have anything to support your argument?

You're kidding right?