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Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

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Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
You keep bringing up Brock "regressing to the mean".
You realize that his mean is exactly what he did last year so that wouldn't be a regression.

Lol he didn't play at the mean level. You even said that you said he played at an elite level. Something he's never really done since before college…it's not out of the realm of possibilities that he regresses based on past production and some of the stats he was damn good at are not easily replicated like TD % and td/INT ratio…hence showing the dropped ints and bad passes.

Again I hope he turns into an all-pro and becomes Montana. I'm not gonna pretend that's the only scenario or there can't be any regression. Especially now with the injury and not having a full off season to improve

I think Woo simply has a problem with your wording. Brock doesnt have a "mean" to regress to, because we only have the sample we have....which was basically elite play. You cant use other QB's mean and apply it to Brock. Unless you want to use his college stats (which would be silly), there is no mean to regress to. All we have is consistent play.

Now, its a little nitpicky for Woo to call you out on your wording, as we all know exactly what you are trying to say (which isnt necessarily wrong). But he is correct.
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Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by TreyDeyEeyDey:
Yup. Like the posters that were s**tting on Trey because he was practicing with Mahomes. A couple prominent Trey detractors literally mocked me for saying it was a good thing. Saying how pointless it was and that he wouldn't learn anything. Now we learn that it has actually helped him quite a bit(though it was literally about as common sense as it gets) but these guys didn't want that. They truly didn't. They took a huge positive and made it a negative just to be negative against him.

I'm a huge Trey guy based off raw potential but I still have no clue what the guy possesses. To sit and judge any player any sport after 4 games is one of the least honest and intelligent sports conversation I can think of. Trey could be a bust for all that I know but after 4 games? How utterly ridiculous.

Him working out with Mahomes does nothing. It was working out with his personal Trainer that has helped Trey. I did say, that if he was able to pickup on Patricks workout regime that COULD be a plus. But just because he was throwing with Patrick doesn't really mean much. He's been to like 4 different passing coaches( including Patrick's guy) hey are going to teach him a hell of a lot more than he's going to get from just throwing with Patrick. That was my point. A lot of these guys throw together in the off-season. They are there to work on their own game. They aren't there to teach. That is what the Passing coaches are for.

As I understand it, the trainer himself said watching Mahomes execute what Christensen asked him to do was the biggest factor in the mechanical changes he's made.

Yup he did. As I said any excuse to bring the guy down. The fact that this needs to be explained is absolutely astonishing to me. To think practicing with a great player and learning tips and tricks from him will amounts to nothing is just dumb. I'm sorry but players are always learning and training with others. This is common sense.....

"So say Kyle Shanahan, John Lynch and Jeff Christensen, the private quarterbacks coach who analyzed Lance's throwing motion and worked with him earlier in the offseason. In a phone interview with The Athletic this week, Christensen said Lance's biggest breakthrough came when he stood behind his most famous client, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and watched him throw."

"I said, 'Watch this. Watch what he does here,'" Christensen recounted. "It was something I was telling him to do that he wasn't quite doing. And then he saw Patrick apply it perfectly. And I think that visual buy-in, that mental buy-in, helped him past that mental hump."

"And to his credit he just kept getting better," he continued. "(Over) the last seven days, every day was a substantial jump."
https://theathletic.com/4533179/2023/05/19/49ers-trey-lance-patrick-mahomes/
Originally posted by TreyDeyEeyDey:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by TreyDeyEeyDey:
Yup. Like the posters that were s**tting on Trey because he was practicing with Mahomes. A couple prominent Trey detractors literally mocked me for saying it was a good thing. Saying how pointless it was and that he wouldn't learn anything. Now we learn that it has actually helped him quite a bit(though it was literally about as common sense as it gets) but these guys didn't want that. They truly didn't. They took a huge positive and made it a negative just to be negative against him.

I'm a huge Trey guy based off raw potential but I still have no clue what the guy possesses. To sit and judge any player any sport after 4 games is one of the least honest and intelligent sports conversation I can think of. Trey could be a bust for all that I know but after 4 games? How utterly ridiculous.

Him working out with Mahomes does nothing. It was working out with his personal Trainer that has helped Trey. I did say, that if he was able to pickup on Patricks workout regime that COULD be a plus. But just because he was throwing with Patrick doesn't really mean much. He's been to like 4 different passing coaches( including Patrick's guy) hey are going to teach him a hell of a lot more than he's going to get from just throwing with Patrick. That was my point. A lot of these guys throw together in the off-season. They are there to work on their own game. They aren't there to teach. That is what the Passing coaches are for.

As I understand it, the trainer himself said watching Mahomes execute what Christensen asked him to do was the biggest factor in the mechanical changes he's made.

Yup he did. As I said any excuse to bring the guy down. The fact that this needs to be explained is absolutely astonishing to me. To think practicing with a great player and learning tips and tricks from him will amounts to nothing is just dumb. I'm sorry but players are always learning and training with others. This is common sense.....

"So say Kyle Shanahan, John Lynch and Jeff Christensen, the private quarterbacks coach who analyzed Lance's throwing motion and worked with him earlier in the offseason. In a phone interview with The Athletic this week, Christensen said Lance's biggest breakthrough came when he stood behind his most famous client, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and watched him throw."

"I said, 'Watch this. Watch what he does here,'" Christensen recounted. "It was something I was telling him to do that he wasn't quite doing. And then he saw Patrick apply it perfectly. And I think that visual buy-in, that mental buy-in, helped him past that mental hump."

"And to his credit he just kept getting better," he continued. "(Over) the last seven days, every day was a substantial jump."
https://theathletic.com/4533179/2023/05/19/49ers-trey-lance-patrick-mahomes/

Just an unfortunate set of circumstances for Trey. Had he went to Christensen last year, who knows? But unfortunately (for Trey), Purdy looked good enough to get dibs on the starting position, and he's unlikely to relinquish that, despite what others say about his sample size being too small. He had four years of college ball. Some of what plagued him in college didn't go away in the NFL. He was still sometimes late on deep balls, especially out breaking ones. But he also clearly improved in some areas, such as his alleged tendency to avoid throwing into tight windows. He definitely did that in the NFL. And even with some of those flaws remaining, he still presented an excellent overall body of work.

So what's his "mean?" I think at minimum it's not very much worse than last year. But it might be a little bit better. And either way, that's winning football. A step above Jimmy G.

So, if Brock continues to play at that level, Trey's only hope of even getting on the field is if Brock gets hurt. So yeah, very unfortunate for Trey. And possibly us, if Trey actually maximizes his talent, which would—drum roll please—likely make him better than Purdy in the end. But, Purdy's going to be cheaper, both now and the next contract (if Trey maximized his potential), and the team is still going to win. So we're good either way. But it's just not fair to Trey to be hit with these injuries and have his development derailed so badly.
[ Edited by 5_Golden_Rings on May 30, 2023 at 5:33 PM ]
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
You keep bringing up Brock "regressing to the mean".
You realize that his mean is exactly what he did last year so that wouldn't be a regression.

Lol he didn't play at the mean level. You even said that you said he played at an elite level. Something he's never really done since before college…it's not out of the realm of possibilities that he regresses based on past production and some of the stats he was damn good at are not easily replicated like TD % and td/INT ratio…hence showing the dropped ints and bad passes.

Again I hope he turns into an all-pro and becomes Montana. I'm not gonna pretend that's the only scenario or there can't be any regression. Especially now with the injury and not having a full off season to improve

So you are talking about him "returning to the mean" of all QBs who are in the NFL?
That's not how the term is ever used.
The term "regress to the mean" is used to describe a player returning to their career mean after performing above their mean for some period of time.

Regress means return to a lower state.
The mean is Brock's average so there is no lower state.
Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
You keep bringing up Brock "regressing to the mean".
You realize that his mean is exactly what he did last year so that wouldn't be a regression.

Lol he didn't play at the mean level. You even said that you said he played at an elite level. Something he's never really done since before college…it's not out of the realm of possibilities that he regresses based on past production and some of the stats he was damn good at are not easily replicated like TD % and td/INT ratio…hence showing the dropped ints and bad passes.

Again I hope he turns into an all-pro and becomes Montana. I'm not gonna pretend that's the only scenario or there can't be any regression. Especially now with the injury and not having a full off season to improve

I think Woo simply has a problem with your wording. Brock doesnt have a "mean" to regress to, because we only have the sample we have....which was basically elite play. You cant use other QB's mean and apply it to Brock. Unless you want to use his college stats (which would be silly), there is no mean to regress to. All we have is consistent play.

Now, its a little nitpicky for Woo to call you out on your wording, as we all know exactly what you are trying to say (which isnt necessarily wrong). But he is correct.

What is the Mean he is referring to?

He doesn't seem to get the meaning of the word regree or mean and he keeps using that term without ever defining what he thinks is the mean.


Originally posted by TheWooLick:
You keep bringing up Brock "regressing to the mean".
You realize that his mean is exactly what he did last year so that wouldn't be a regression.


what is Brock's play is not mean regressive? or his mean performance level is so much better than most in the league? nobody completely knows these answers yet but he sure did put up 9 great data points last year... and, he will undoubtedly make a sophomore year improvement from year 1 to 2, the 9ers think of BCB as being a "massive" piece to their future according to Rappoport today
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
What is the Mean he is referring to?

He doesn't seem to get the meaning of the word regree or mean and he keeps using that term without ever defining what he thinks is the mean.


Isn't he effectively saying he might not play as well? I think that's a pretty easy takeaway even if he's misusing terms according to their proper definition.
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
What is the Mean he is referring to?

He doesn't seem to get the meaning of the word regree or mean and he keeps using that term without ever defining what he thinks is the mean.


Isn't he effectively saying he might not play as well? I think that's a pretty easy takeaway even if he's misusing terms according to their proper definition.

I just told my boss that the company could fail and collapse tomorrow, so I'm not coming in. Lol

why play Brock, when he is healthy, if he might regress? Makes more sense to play Lance and hope he is as good or better.
Originally posted by tankle104:
I just told my boss that the company could fail and collapse tomorrow, so I'm not coming in. Lol

why play Brock, when he is healthy, if he might regress? Makes more sense to play Lance and hope he is as good or better.

lol, I obviously don't subscribe to that argument. Just think we can have better conversations if we stop getting hung up on semantics when there is an obvious meaning to what a poster is saying.

Brock may be just as good, better, or he could not play as well. No need to get hung up on math terms, lol.
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
Jimmy won, Trey has not won a lot.
People who win are called winners.

Nick Foles is a winner too, right

Who cares?

And the answer is no, Foles is a .500 qb.

1-0 in games that REALLY matter
Jimmy btw is 0-1 if you don't recall.

what are we doing here?
do you think Foles is a better QB than JG?

Being ridiculous to make a point how silly the "he's a winner" talk is when it's without context.

I don't want to turn this into a thread about a guy who isn't here anymore but a winning record doesn't make someone a better QB regardless of other things.

Tom Brady is a winning QB
Mahomes is a winning QB

Their play elevates the team around them and they don't have an easy way to stop them from playing well or limit their options on the field.

We have mountains of examples where "winning record" is simply a matter of being on the right team.

That's why Nick Foles has a winning record with the Eagles and a losing record with 4 other teams.

So he was a winning QB but then decided he had enough of winning so he stopped and then decided to win again?

How about Matt Stafford? Years of losing then he goes to the Rams and wins a SB how's that work?

Winning is everything and very important to have a QB who can help you win games but a W/L record isn't the ultimate in QB evaluations.
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
Jimmy won, Trey has not won a lot.
People who win are called winners.

Nick Foles is a winner too, right

Who cares?

And the answer is no, Foles is a .500 qb.

1-0 in games that REALLY matter
Jimmy btw is 0-1 if you don't recall.

what are we doing here?
do you think Foles is a better QB than JG?

He is trying to prop up Lance by trashing Brock.

Where is Brock in any of that exchange until you just brought him up? I hope you stretched before reaching that hard.
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Originally posted by tankle104:
I just told my boss that the company could fail and collapse tomorrow, so I'm not coming in. Lol

why play Brock, when he is healthy, if he might regress? Makes more sense to play Lance and hope he is as good or better.

lol, I obviously don't subscribe to that argument. Just think we can have better conversations if we stop getting hung up on semantics when there is an obvious meaning to what a poster is saying.

Brock may be just as good, better, or he could not play as well. No need to get hung up on math terms, lol.

Lmao I'm just playing around with some guys.

id rather a poster say "I'm concerned he may regress because of XYZ." Instead of "it's possible he regresses! Who knows" because that's a soulless argument. If people post like that, then you can just say whatever you want and make the claim "anytbing is possible" with no substance. I always try to make sure I have a reason and explanation regarding why I feel how I feel about things.

it makes it so I can be challenged and either prove my point or someone can school me and I learn something new
Originally posted by tankle104:
He played at the same level as jimmy g in regards to the things Jimmy excelled at, yes. Better than him at most other things. There were things that Jimmy was usually one of the best in the league at such as YPA, performance on third downs, accuracy etc. those are things we should be proud of?

i know you only account for what Trey did in third/fourth quarter of the Texans game, but who would you say he played like over the course of his three games?

YPA is a sketchy stat…it doesn't factor in YAC. I don't hold a ton of weight in it. That's my opinion there.

Like I said if you want to break down quarters of play to determine if a QB had a good game. We can do that for Brock all the same. Multiple games of not playing great for at least 3 QRs.

The AZ game was a s**t show on multiple levels including the play calling. WK5 for a 21 yr old that hadn't played meaningful football since 2019. Plus a f**ked up throwing hand. The bears game was a s**t show on multiple levels. Weather played a factor regardless of what you say. Missing multiple players. Our other studs stinking up the place and Kyle's horrible overall record on WK1 games.

I never said there was nothing to be proud of, or Brock played horrible every snap. It was a lot of what Jimmy did though. Numbers back that up. The ability to move a little is a bonus and needed. Is that sustainable? I don't know he was getting rocked plenty trying to do that. We will see.
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
Ypu linked a clip to contested pass and called it an almost INT.

Lol when a DB drops a would be pick because the ball is inaccurate and a floater.

There's by for more good then bad. No reason to try and act like he didn't have f**k ups and would be picks though.
[ Edited by NYniner85 on May 30, 2023 at 7:24 PM ]

this is hilarious lmao. Things could be a hell of a lot worse, gents. I'll take Lance/Purdy/darnold over any of the bucs QBs in a heartbeat. Lol what a disaster.i think the bucs will give the cards a run for their money on the #1 pick
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