Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by tankle104:
Stats help provide context and are important but the most accurate assessment comes from film, no question.

It's hard to argue a stance if all you're using are stats. You can manipulate stats to tell your own story often. It's important to watch the film and analyze the context.

It's easy to show off treys stats in the Texans game but when you break down his starts, it's the only game
hes throw a touchdown(s). They were also an awful team and only the other worst teams in the league (besides titans that year - division rivals) scored less. He's thrown an int every game, his completion percentage over his three starts combined is 55% etc etc.

his few starts have been rough. It def doesn't mean that's the player he will always be. He can and will improve, I'm confident in that. Just slowly but surely. I personally don't see him hitting top 10 qb in the league, but I could be wrong.

overall, we have an awesome qb room with Tons of talent and Kyle will make the best decision. I think it'll be Purdy unless he isn't healthy yet. When he is, I don't see him keeping Purdy on the bench. We will see though in a few months

Dont get me wrong I use stats too. You have to. But nothing bypasses the eye test.

I thought his questioning what Brock did well after taking away TD% was comical. You can see with your eyes how different we looked with him under center.

Don't need any types of formulas for that.

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by tankle104:
Stats help provide context and are important but the most accurate assessment comes from film, no question.

It's hard to argue a stance if all you're using are stats. You can manipulate stats to tell your own story often. It's important to watch the film and analyze the context.

It's easy to show off treys stats in the Texans game but when you break down his starts, it's the only game
hes throw a touchdown(s). They were also an awful team and only the other worst teams in the league (besides titans that year - division rivals) scored less. He's thrown an int every game, his completion percentage over his three starts combined is 55% etc etc.

his few starts have been rough. It def doesn't mean that's the player he will always be. He can and will improve, I'm confident in that. Just slowly but surely. I personally don't see him hitting top 10 qb in the league, but I could be wrong.

overall, we have an awesome qb room with Tons of talent and Kyle will make the best decision. I think it'll be Purdy unless he isn't healthy yet. When he is, I don't see him keeping Purdy on the bench. We will see though in a few months

Dont get me wrong I use stats too. You have to. But nothing bypasses the eye test.

I thought his questioning what Brock did well after taking away TD% was comical. You can see with your eyes how different we looked with him under center.

Don't need any types of formulas for that.

It's not even remotely close. One looks like a rookie and one looks like a 15 year vet.

Tbh, im really excited to see how Lance responds with this kind of pressure on him. I don't think he's had that since he's been here, and if he is the competitor we all think he is, it should help him improve as a player.

i believe he's been with an off season coach and I'm hoping that helps him make big strides in the accuracy dept. as well as building confidence in his progression Reading.

Originally posted by krizay:
Dont get me wrong I use stats too. You have to. But nothing bypasses the eye test.

I thought his questioning what Brock did well after taking away TD% was comical. You can see with your eyes how different we looked with him under center.

Don't need any types of formulas for that.

Brock's TD percentage was higher than Mahomes every season he's played except for his first year starting, and his passer rating was better than Mahomes in 3 of his 5 years. Is that an indicator that he's playing better than Mahomes? Absolutely not and you'd be nuts to think that.

The gigantic variable there is the team contribution to those stats. Imagine Mahomes had Shanahan's run game as the thing team's focused on first, and instead of having Juju, and McKinnon, he had Deebo, Aiyuk and CMC in addition to an all pro TE.

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by tankle104:

Stats help provide context and are important but the most accurate assessment comes from film, no question.

It's hard to argue a stance if all you're using are stats. You can manipulate stats to tell your own story often. It's important to watch the film and analyze the context.

It's easy to show off treys stats in the Texans game but when you break down his starts, it's the only game
hes throw a touchdown(s). They were also an awful team and only the other worst teams in the league (besides titans that year - division rivals) scored less. He's thrown an int every game, his completion percentage over his three starts combined is 55% etc etc.

his few starts have been rough. It def doesn't mean that's the player he will always be. He can and will improve, I'm confident in that. Just slowly but surely. I personally don't see him hitting top 10 qb in the league, but I could be wrong.

overall, we have an awesome qb room with Tons of talent and Kyle will make the best decision. I think it'll be Purdy unless he isn't healthy yet. When he is, I don't see him keeping Purdy on the bench. We will see though in a few months

Dont get me wrong I use stats too. You have to. But nothing bypasses the eye test.

I thought his questioning what Brock did well after taking away TD% was comical. You can see with your eyes how different we looked with him under center.

Don't need any types of formulas for that.

Stats can be deceiving, particularly when a player is in a very favorable situation. Stats are something that hold up better over time. Stats from a game will tell you nothing about a player.

We can s**t on Martz all we want, but when a former coach says you look like you don't belong, that's pretty bad. That's failing the eye test, and I have to say he's not wrong. Watching Trey run the offense is awkward to say the least.

When you watch Brock you can just tell. Forget the players around him, just look at the way he's operating the offense compared to our 10 year vet that was in the system for years

Originally posted by CharlieSheen:

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by tankle104:
Stats help provide context and are important but the most accurate assessment comes from film, no question.

It's hard to argue a stance if all you're using are stats. You can manipulate stats to tell your own story often. It's important to watch the film and analyze the context.

It's easy to show off treys stats in the Texans game but when you break down his starts, it's the only game
hes throw a touchdown(s). They were also an awful team and only the other worst teams in the league (besides titans that year - division rivals) scored less. He's thrown an int every game, his completion percentage over his three starts combined is 55% etc etc.

his few starts have been rough. It def doesn't mean that's the player he will always be. He can and will improve, I'm confident in that. Just slowly but surely. I personally don't see him hitting top 10 qb in the league, but I could be wrong.

overall, we have an awesome qb room with Tons of talent and Kyle will make the best decision. I think it'll be Purdy unless he isn't healthy yet. When he is, I don't see him keeping Purdy on the bench. We will see though in a few months

Dont get me wrong I use stats too. You have to. But nothing bypasses the eye test.

I thought his questioning what Brock did well after taking away TD% was comical. You can see with your eyes how different we looked with him under center.

Don't need any types of formulas for that.

Stats can be deceiving, particularly when a player is in a very favorable situation. Stats are something that hold up better over time. Stats from a game will tell you nothing about a player.

We can s**t on Martz all we want, but when a former coach says you look like you don't belong, that's pretty bad. That's failing the eye test, and I have to say he's not wrong. Watching Trey run the offense is awkward to say the least.

When you watch Brock you can just tell. Forget the players around him, just look at the way he's operating the offense compared to our 10 year vet that was in the system for years

It's easy to forget the players around them when Purdy had Kittle and CMC and Trey didn't.

If Trey had played a full season or the opposite situation happened, in that, Trey had Kittle and CMC but Purdy didn't. Or if Purdy started the season with multiple inexperienced offensive lineman and Trey came in later when they were more comfortable. I would think all of these points were valid.

If I was a betting man I'd still say Purdy will win the job, but it's still too soon.

Originally posted by Waterbear:
It's easy to forget the players around them when Purdy had Kittle and CMC and Trey didn't.

If Trey had played a full season or the opposite situation happened, in that, Trey had Kittle and CMC but Purdy didn't. Or if Purdy started the season with multiple inexperienced offensive lineman and Trey came in later when they were more comfortable. I would think all of these points were valid.

If I was a betting man I'd still say Purdy will win the job, but it's still too soon.

There is definitely merit to what you're saying but at the same time, he still had deebo (all pro), Williams (all pro), Aiyuk (dependable 1k receiver), McG (solid RT), Elijah Mitchell, juice, and Kyle. So it isn't like he was playing with scrubs - just not all pro talent across the board. Most are lucky to play with one all pro and a pro bowler. So I personally view his situation as victimless and just bad football.

id bet on Purdy, as well. It isn't necessarily a matter of IF he wins it, just when is he healthy. If Lance has to start a few games and tears it up - awesome for the 49ers.

Originally posted by Waterbear:
It's easy to forget the players around them when Purdy had Kittle and CMC and Trey didn't.

If Trey had played a full season or the opposite situation happened, in that, Trey had Kittle and CMC but Purdy didn't. Or if Purdy started the season with multiple inexperienced offensive lineman and Trey came in later when they were more comfortable. I would think all of these points were valid.

If I was a betting man I'd still say Purdy will win the job, but it's still too soon.

A comparison between Trey and Brock shouldn't and doesn't have to rely on supporting cast around them... even though the cast directly affects the statistics people are arguing about.

Brock consistently showed poise under pressure, a good understanding of the offense, a willingness to pull the trigger on open reads, an ability to improvise and both kill bad plays and extend plays and turn potential losses into gains, good accuracy, good field vision, an ability to go through progressions quickly. These traits in conjunction with the supporting cast are what lead to success in terms of production and statistics. Only the production and statistics would directly suffer if the cast was different, but the individual play wouldn't necessarily change. You might see a QB try to do too much because he has to make up for subpar teammate performance however.

I'm not sure what everyone thinks Trey showed consistently in his limited time (we can have good arguments about it) but I would say it was mostly limited to an ability to attack a defense with his legs, solid vision, and the ability to stretch the defense with solid downfield accuracy. Beyond that it was inconsistent accuracy, frenetic play in the pocket, hesitation in pulling the trigger and in the run game, inconsistent timing. Are those things going to change with more experience? We all hope so. But they're not necessarily going to change if he has Kittle instead of Tyler Kroft, or CMC instead of Jeff Wilson Jr. If Trey didn't improve in those areas, some of these statistics could still improve because the impact the other players have on them would be different (because it would be better players).

What I do know is when Kyle makes an inevitable decision between the two, it won't be because of passer rating, YPA, or TD percentage. He's going to watch 'da philm' and judge it.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by Waterbear:

It's easy to forget the players around them when Purdy had Kittle and CMC and Trey didn't.

If Trey had played a full season or the opposite situation happened, in that, Trey had Kittle and CMC but Purdy didn't. Or if Purdy started the season with multiple inexperienced offensive lineman and Trey came in later when they were more comfortable. I would think all of these points were valid.

If I was a betting man I'd still say Purdy will win the job, but it's still too soon.

A comparison between Trey and Brock shouldn't and doesn't have to rely on supporting cast around them... even though the cast directly affects the statistics people are arguing about.

Brock consistently showed poise under pressure, a good understanding of the offense, a willingness to pull the trigger on open reads, an ability to improvise and both kill bad plays and extend plays and turn potential losses into gains, good accuracy, good field vision, an ability to go through progressions quickly. These traits in conjunction with the supporting cast are what lead to success in terms of production and statistics. Only the production and statistics would directly suffer if the cast was different, but the individual play wouldn't necessarily change. You might see a QB try to do too much because he has to make up for subpar teammate performance however.

I'm not sure what everyone thinks Trey showed consistently in his limited time (we can have good arguments about it) but I would say it was mostly limited to an ability to attack a defense with his legs, solid vision, and the ability to stretch the defense with solid downfield accuracy. Beyond that it was inconsistent accuracy, frenetic play in the pocket, hesitation in pulling the trigger and in the run game, inconsistent timing. Are those things going to change with more experience? We all hope so. But they're not necessarily going to change if he has Kittle instead of Tyler Kroft, or CMC instead of Jeff Wilson Jr. If Trey didn't improve in those areas, some of these statistics could still improve because the impact the other players have on them would be different (because it would be better players).

What I do know is when Kyle makes an inevitable decision between the two, it won't be because of passer rating, YPA, or TD percentage. He's going to watch 'da philm' and judge it.

This. Brock lost Deebo in his first start so it kinda evens out, but it still doesn't matter, I know what I'm seeing. We can give Trey more weapons and they'll make a few more plays for him, but the offense will still be the same clunky mess that relies on Kyle getting a long developing deep shot open for him to score consistently

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by Waterbear:
It's easy to forget the players around them when Purdy had Kittle and CMC and Trey didn't.

If Trey had played a full season or the opposite situation happened, in that, Trey had Kittle and CMC but Purdy didn't. Or if Purdy started the season with multiple inexperienced offensive lineman and Trey came in later when they were more comfortable. I would think all of these points were valid.

If I was a betting man I'd still say Purdy will win the job, but it's still too soon.

There is definitely merit to what you're saying but at the same time, he still had deebo (all pro), Williams (all pro), Aiyuk (dependable 1k receiver), McG (solid RT), Elijah Mitchell, juice, and Kyle. So it isn't like he was playing with scrubs - just not all pro talent across the board. Most are lucky to play with one all pro and a pro bowler. So I personally view his situation as victimless and just bad football.

id bet on Purdy, as well. It isn't necessarily a matter of IF he wins it, just when is he healthy. If Lance has to start a few games and tears it up - awesome for the 49ers.

There's also a tremendous difference between game 1 and game 13. A vast majority of the teams are not even close to being in rhythm until week 8-10 or so.

Originally posted by elguapo:
Exactly. I love how some people neglect to state how good the Cowboys pass rush is and how poorly our offensive line played. Any quarterback would've done worse than Brock except maybe Mahomes and Allen. Purdy was so much better than we are used to and he's a damn rookie

Go watch our OL vs the bears weeks one. Pretty bad man. Trent was getting beat vs day 3 rookie edge rushers. That has nothing to do with Brock, just as fact of a WK1 football game.

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by JTB1974:
Trey never had CMC. And I don't think he had Kittle at all.

He had kittle in the 2nd half of SEA. he went 0 for 3 to kittle.

Texans game he had kittle. 1 of 2 targets for 29 yards

Does it really matter if he had CMC or not. Fact is Trey Lance had a championship roster in place, a top 10 roster in the NFC. Saying he didn't have CMC is just another excuse.

Yes it matters unless you're brain dead.

We have a great look at the difference he made in the offense with Jimmy G. He's the QB we've seen the most in this offense so we have real data on the improvement CMC's presence brings to the offense.

The idea that CMC somehow wouldn't help Trey bring his game up is incredibly stupid. So is Krizay minimizing the impact Kittle has on the offense. I guess the defense doesn't have to account for George on other plays and only his receptions impact the performance of the offense…

And not sure if you noticed but that top flight roster didn't play like it week 1. All offseason we heard the vets say "Trey doesn't have to do much cuz he has us"…woops.

Originally posted by Psinex:

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Psinex:
To this point, Lance has looked an awful lot like Kaepernick, and not the good one. Having difficulty finding open receivers, holding onto the ball, wandering all over the pocket, then ultimately trying to run but getting taken down for short gains.

For him to become anywhere as proficient as Purdy in running the offense, he needs to really improve his accuracy and recognition. He struggles to complete over 60%, when Purdy and Jimmy were passing in the high 60's, around 66-68%. He looks awkward trying to complete short passes because he has no touch on his balls. People say he just needs experience but in just four games they've tried to use him as a runner, he's had two lower body injuries, the second time a season ender. If his legs are that prone to injury, he may not be able to run more than 3-5 times a game.

Realistically, this is his last off-season to prove he can be the guy because Purdy damn near locked down the job last year. Circumstances would be very different if Purdy hadn't gotten injured.

Oh lookie it's the Kap comparison again.

Trey has shown a much better grasp of the passing game in his limited snaps than Kap has. He doesn't have trouble finding open receivers unless you're the type of guy who assumes a QB should always find the "open guy" on the play regardless of progressions on that play.

Trey's pocket presence for his young age has been a strength. The "he can't make short passes" thing is a joke as well. He's shown that ability a bunch of times, he just hasn't had the big RB threats out there or the offense calling for him to make those throws on the regular. He's shown plenty of touch in limited snaps as well.

It honestly feels like you watched ESPN takes on the kid and just regurgitated them back here. Go back and watch his games(unfortunately there aren't too many to look at) and actually look at the full play in question. Keep in mind who is out there, down and distance, conditions, etc...

Actually, I'm a Levi's season ticket holder and I watched every snap of his closely in person and later on video. I've also been saying the same things from the beginning. He got flustered easily, and overreacted to pressure quite often. And the numbers don't lie; he was barely getting to a 60% completion percentage with one of the slower releases in the league. You can call the short passes issue a joke, but it's true. He struggles with accuracy on shorter passes because of his velocity and lack of arc on his throws. Obviously, Trey can improve, but there are some people here that seem more content just to give him the benefit of a doubt while dismissing legitimate concerns.

Good for you being a season ticket holder. I just don't trust what you see if you believe the stuff you wrote in that comparison.

Originally posted by TreyDeyEeyDey:
There's also a tremendous difference between game 1 and game 13. A vast majority of the teams are not even close to being in rhythm until week 8-10 or so.

It's definitely a factor when it comes to team success. Same with Trey not getting consecutive starts or enough play time in general to see if he 'calms down' naturally, from an individual standpoint.

But there are still comparisons that can be made with the limited picture we had. Basic example would be Brock coming in on the fly with no reps and displaying all these positive traits from the jump.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by JTB1974:
Trey never had CMC. And I don't think he had Kittle at all.

He had kittle in the 2nd half of SEA. he went 0 for 3 to kittle.

Texans game he had kittle. 1 of 2 targets for 29 yards

Does it really matter if he had CMC or not. Fact is Trey Lance had a championship roster in place, a top 10 roster in the NFC. Saying he didn't have CMC is just another excuse.

Yes it matters unless you're brain dead.

We have a great look at the difference he made in the offense with Jimmy G. He's the QB we've seen the most in this offense so we have real data on the improvement CMC's presence brings to the offense.

The idea that CMC somehow wouldn't help Trey bring his game up is incredibly stupid. So is Krizay minimizing the impact Kittle has on the offense. I guess the defense doesn't have to account for George on other plays and only his receptions impact the performance of the offense…

And not sure if you noticed but that top flight roster didn't play like it week 1. All offseason we heard the vets say "Trey doesn't have to do much cuz he has us"…woops.

That roster gave up sacks, fumbled the ball in the RZ, left cat boy Pettis wide open for the worlds easiest TD, blew another coverage on another TD, and flopped on a walk in TD. Lance had his own issues without question. But pretending that WK1 roster was playing like a super roster is a f**king joke.

Originally posted by tankle104:
Have you ever seen a starting lineup start to peak and then a 7th round rookie gets thrown in and they do even better? The answer is no because that's never happened - which is a credit to Purdy.

The facts are that when lance starts with this coaching staff and numerous all pros/pro bowlers - the offense as a whole significantly plays worse and performs worse, Especially PPG, Then when jimmy or Purdy did.

they all had all pro players missing time, the difference is - jimmy operated at a top 10 offense level and Purdy operated as a top two offense and then lance
Operated at a 25-32 level. Bottom of
The league.

only variable that changed was qb. If Lance was a good
qb right now, that wouldn't be the drop off

Dude shut up. I don't want to knock Brock because he played great but I've been seeing your posts last few pages go on and on about how amazing he was while pretending Lance "stunk it up" and how CMC didn't make a big impact in that.

You literally saw a glimpse of Brock's worst set of reps in a rain game nowhere near what the team played with week 1.

Before Brock went in we saw the improvement on offense with CMC in there. Jimmy G went from Jittery Jimmy back to Jimmy GQ.

The idea that Lance would "stink it up" with a healthy Kittle and CMC in games outside of a monsoon during a period when the team wasn't clearly rusty from preseason is straight hate or delusion, your choice.

This thread is about Lance not Brock. Even if Brock comes back healthy before week 1, Trey is the guy who will be out there for the bulk of camp. We don't know if Brock will be back healthy, if he'll be back by week 1, if he'll stay healthy.

The best thing for this team is to get to see both guys play with the same players, in same conditions and vs the same defenders. Comparing games week 1 to when the team hits their stride is ridiculous, especially when you have two or your game changers unavailable for one guy.