Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by libertyforever:
That wasn't the argument. No one is disputing that higher draft has higher success rate.

The argument is how relevant that is compare to player performance. Draft pick position is one data point, performance on the field is another data point. Sure the more snaps the more important the performance data point. As some point, the draft position data point becomes completely irrelevant. Purdy might play 7 to 10 games this season. How impressive does he need to have a fair competition for the 2023 starter job. Or are going to say he had a very impressive 7-10 games, but he is only a 7th rounder, so he is not gonna make it.

Not sure why this is having to be said.

Literally what he just wrote backed up that higher picks have a higher success rate…which in fact is about performance on the field. Overall there isn't a position that holds true more than the QB position.

You probably won't get it. But here is a joke that applied to what was discussed.

A statistician was travelling in an airplane.
About an hour into the flight, the pilot announced that they had lost an engine, but don't worry, they plane still has one engine left.
The statistician tried to calm everyone down "It is fine. Statistically, only one crash for approximately every 1.2 million flight."
A little later, the pilot announced that the last engine failed.
The passenger next the the statistican asked: "We should be ok, right? Only one crash for approximately every 1.2 million flight."
The statistician responded: "Yes only one crash for approximately every 1.2 million flight, but there is a good indication that we are among the one out of 1.2 million flight that will crash."

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by boast:
...... the original comments about draft position being irrelevant to how one will perform in the NFL.

I mean tbh boast....you've never served me an easier layup than this one.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=6e8eb7047495

I could bore you with statistics all day but why? The correlation should be quite obvious without even looking. There is your proof that it does matter, however. Not only are teams more patient with you, not only are you given more opportunities, but there are clear results there for you where nearly 30% of starters were 1st rounders, compared to 4% of 7th rounders.

lol you might want to read your screen cap "starters to begin the season". this actually proves your earlier argument that no one was making. teams are far more likely to start their earlier round picks over later picks. this has nothing really to do with a player's talent.

lol and look at undrafted at 13.6. it's higher than 3rd round picks. how come you didnt circle that? lololol

BTW,...that 2015 article has FAR MORE definitive stats and numbers than what I posted that shows there is a clear difference. 49% of All-Pro level players were 1st rounders,...compared to 1% of 7th rounders. Easily more than all other rounds combined.

I simply posted the 1st stat chart I saw. I mean really? Let's not do this.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
And a 7th rd rookie QB isn't lol? This team clearly doesn't need elite QB play to win games. That's been true for years now.

it's like none of you can accept the fact that they moved up for a QB and part of doing that means you have to play them and let them develop. That doesn't mean you have to lose games either.

I have no idea what you think Brock Purdy has to do with the teams decision to select Trey Lance and the strategy behind it.

I accept the fact that the team willingly decided to forego immediate improvement at the position on the belief that they could take on a multi year project that would pay off big down the road, and win at the same time. It didn't work last year. It hasn't worked this year. It's comically bad management.

Hopefully Brock Purdy continues to play this way and improve because beyond bringing in a veteran free agent for next season, we'll be on year three of this pie in the sky idea that comes at the expense of our Super Bowl quality roster.

Originally posted by random49er:
BTW,...that 2015 article has FAR MORE definitive stats and numbers than what I posted that shows there is a clear difference. 49% of All-Pro level players were 1st rounders,...compared to 1% of 7th rounders. Easily more than all other rounds combined.

I simply posted the 1st stat chart I saw. I mean really? Let's not do this.

and again UNDRAFTED is higher than the 3rd round for your ALL PRO argument. i rest my case.

Let me help you out with the "undrafted" discrepancy suggestion I saw coming from a mile away. Each round is limited to 32 players (generally).

You'll never guess the # of slots the "undrafted" round gets,...but let's just say it's way, way higher than 32. So no discrepancy at all, just pure statistics.

And yes,...it would be a good time to rest this case. The #'s are too convincing.

…so the majority of All Pro level players come after the 1st round.

Originally posted by random49er:
Let me help you out with the "undrafted" discrepancy I saw coming from a mile away. Each round is limited to 32 players (generally).

You'll never guess the # of slots the "undrafted" round gets,...but let's just say it's way, way higher than 32.

this is all BS anyway. because like you said later round guys are not likely to get snaps in practice or any significant playing time to prove that they are talented.

want an example?

look at our very own Brock Purdy. 7th rounder. all these players said he's an absolute baller going back to training camp but the guy wasn't going to get any snaps or playing time UNLESS the team lost two starting QBs. that's a real world example right there.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
I can't believe we're even having a debate about it. Same s**t with thinking the only way you can start a young QB is if the team is bad lol. Wtf is going on in here??

it's okay to talk about outliners and "hope" Brock is one…But for the love of god realize the odds of that happening are small as f**k. Let's also stop acting like having a great team around a young QB isn't gonna help that QB develop. let's stop acting like this team can't win a bunch of games with middle of the road QB play, we've been doing it for years now.

Two obvious problems jump out here:

1. That winning games, and not the Super Bowl, is this current team's goal.
2. That Trey Lance showed anything close to middle of the road NFL starter QB play. That's Jimmy.

Originally posted by boast:
this is all BS anyway. because like you said later round guys are not likely to get snaps in practice or any significant playing time to prove that they are talented.

want an example?

look at our very own Brock Purdy. 7th rounder. all these players said he's an absolute baller going back to training camp but the guy wasn't going to get any snaps or playing time UNLESS the team lost two starting QBs. that's a real world example right there.

I didn't say they're not likely and again you're changing my words. Is a 7th round guy as likely to get as full of a look and chance as a 1st rounder? Of course not.

The numbers are definitive: draft position correlates in very, very large ways. And when you are allowed to compile the time on the field for multiple years,...7th rounders basically go to 0%, by comparison, as the other chart shows.

The pool of UFAs to choose from for signings and camp invites is in the multiple-thousands on a yearly basis, btw.

Originally posted by OKC49erFan:
…so the majority of All Pro level players come after the 1st round.

lol....I have to give u that much

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by OKC49erFan:
…so the majority of All Pro level players come after the 1st round.

lol....I have to give u that much

Just goofin.
considering the whole situation, just think how fortunate the team and we are! The season could have been over when Jimmy went down, but it isn't. Pretty incredible!
Trey's season is done. He will have all off-season to work to compete next season. Two young qbs: different gifts, styles, experience. Gonna be interesting!

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by boast:
this is all BS anyway. because like you said later round guys are not likely to get snaps in practice or any significant playing time to prove that they are talented.

want an example?

look at our very own Brock Purdy. 7th rounder. all these players said he's an absolute baller going back to training camp but the guy wasn't going to get any snaps or playing time UNLESS the team lost two starting QBs. that's a real world example right there.

I didn't say they're not likely and again you're changing my words. Is a 7th round guy as likely to get as full of a look and chance as a 1st rounder? Of course not.

The numbers are definitive: draft position correlates in very, very large ways. And when you are allowed to compile the time on the field for multiple years,...7th rounders basically go to 0%, by comparison, as the other chart shows.

The pool of UFAs to choose from for signings and camp invites is in the multiple-thousands on a yearly basis, btw.

but there's not "multiple-thousands" of UDFAs signed on a yearly basis. not sure of this point.

what all this stuff from the article ultimately shows me is that the higher a player is drafted, the better the opportunity. this is ESPECIALLY true of the QB position. the actual position we were talking about.

Originally posted by OKC49erFan:

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by OKC49erFan:
…so the majority of All Pro level players come after the 1st round.

lol....I have to give u that much

Just goofin.
considering the whole situation, just think how fortunate the team and we are! The season could have been over when Jimmy went down, but it isn't. Pretty incredible!
Trey's season is done. He will have all off-season to work to compete next season. Two young qbs: different gifts, styles, experience. Gonna be interesting!

Please please let Brock win the superbowl, and have Trey make enough of a leap to still push him for the job next year

Originally posted by boast:
but there's not "multiple-thousands" of UDFAs signed on a yearly basis. not sure of this point.

The point is to explain why the UFAs would be higher, percentage-wise, than 7th rounders.

UFAs are not only signed, but constantly given chances in camp invites and workouts throughout the season. You are selecting from a pool of thousands of guys.

It only stands to reason that this practically limitless supply to bring in and check out over and over would yield higher results than a category that has to stay @ a static "32" forever.

That's really all.