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Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

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Dec 22, 2022 at 5:55 PM
  • boast
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Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
This is a 1 year example. Will it look like that of we use 25 years of data?

well you can massage any data to one's liking by changing the parameters. this discussion is happening today and this is the current crop of NFC QBs in the playoffs today.

and people can say but but but outliers! well it appears so far that Brock may just be in that outlier category.
Dec 22, 2022 at 5:56 PM
Originally posted by boast:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by libertyforever:
As Tom Brady and Kurt Warner said, draft position is not that relevant.

Now bring up the hundreds of QBs that didn't turn into Kurt and Brady…stop using outliers to proclaim anything. Maybe Brock turns into the next Brady, history says otherwise. Just enjoy the games now and worry about the future when it's time to worry about it.

draft position is largely irrelevant tho


Now do the AFC
Dec 22, 2022 at 5:58 PM
Originally posted by libertyforever:
Of course no one should have that hope for a 7th rounder, unless that player came on the field and ball out.

Purdy did exactly that in his first 3 games. That itself is a BIG outlier.

It's 3 games on a Super Bowl roster with an amazing HC. You think he's doing what he's done if he's a playing on the bears?
[ Edited by NYniner85 on Dec 22, 2022 at 5:59 PM ]
Dec 22, 2022 at 5:59 PM
Originally posted by boast:
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
This is a 1 year example. Will it look like that of we use 25 years of data?

well you can massage any data to one's liking by changing the parameters. this discussion is happening today and this is the current crop of NFC QBs in the playoffs today.

and people can say but but but outliers! well it appears so far that Brock may just be in that outlier category.

Increasing the data is far from massaging it to one's liking. The more data you have, the more accurate your results.
Dec 22, 2022 at 6:00 PM
Originally posted by boast:
well you can massage any data to one's liking by changing the parameters. this discussion is happening today and this is the current crop of NFC QBs in the playoffs today.

and people can say but but but outliers! well it appears so far that Brock may just be in that outlier category.

So if Brock lays an egg this Saturday is he still an outlier? I really hope he is…but I'm being realistic and not trying to turn a couple games into saying he's Tom Brady or something.
[ Edited by NYniner85 on Dec 22, 2022 at 6:02 PM ]
Dec 22, 2022 at 6:03 PM
  • boast
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Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by boast:
well you can massage any data to one's liking by changing the parameters. this discussion is happening today and this is the current crop of NFC QBs in the playoffs today.

and people can say but but but outliers! well it appears so far that Brock may just be in that outlier category.

So if Brock lays an egg this Saturday is he still an outlier? I really hope he is…I'm being realistic and not trying to turn a couple games into saying he's Tom Brady or something.

if Brock lays an egg, i dont believe the game will define him. it would be more telling if he regresses over the rest of the season and post.
Dec 22, 2022 at 6:03 PM
Originally posted by NotAFinga42:
Increasing the data is far from massaging it to one's liking. The more data you have, the more accurate your results.

And like I said go look at the AFC. Top 10 teams all first rd picks
Dec 22, 2022 at 6:04 PM
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by boast:
well you can massage any data to one's liking by changing the parameters. this discussion is happening today and this is the current crop of NFC QBs in the playoffs today.

and people can say but but but outliers! well it appears so far that Brock may just be in that outlier category.

So if Brock lays an egg this Saturday is he still an outlier? I really hope he is…but I'm being realistic and not trying to turn a couple games into saying he's Tom Brady or something.

Damn dude, you've used this example more than once. Please don't jinx this.
Dec 22, 2022 at 6:06 PM
  • boast
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Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by NotAFinga42:
Increasing the data is far from massaging it to one's liking. The more data you have, the more accurate your results.

And like I said go look at the AFC. Top 10 teams all first rd picks

but the NFC shows that draft position doesn't have anything to do with how successful a player can be. that's the point of the example.
Dec 22, 2022 at 6:07 PM
Originally posted by boast:
if Brock lays an egg, i dont believe the game will define him. it would be more telling if he regresses over the rest of the season and post.

So two starts means he's Tom Brady one bad game doesn't fine him. Gotcha. How about we cut the crap and say objectively that no one knows what Brock or Lance will be long-term as it stands right now. Seems to make the most sense.
Dec 22, 2022 at 6:07 PM
Originally posted by boast:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by libertyforever:
As Tom Brady and Kurt Warner said, draft position is not that relevant.

Now bring up the hundreds of QBs that didn't turn into Kurt and Brady…stop using outliers to proclaim anything. Maybe Brock turns into the next Brady, history says otherwise. Just enjoy the games now and worry about the future when it's time to worry about it.

draft position is largely irrelevant tho


Meanwhile, the AFC:

Josh Allen - 1st Round, 7th Overall
Patrick Mahomes - 1st Round, 10th Overall
Joe Burrow - 1st Round, 1st Overall
Ryan Tannehill - 1st Round, 8th Overall (but acquired via trade); Malik Willis - 3rd Round
Lamar Jackson - 1st Round, 32nd Overall
Justin Herbert - 1st Round, 6th Overall
Tua Taigavaloa - 1st Round, 5th Overall
Dec 22, 2022 at 6:08 PM
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by libertyforever:
Of course no one should have that hope for a 7th rounder, unless that player came on the field and ball out.

Purdy did exactly that in his first 3 games. That itself is a BIG outlier.

It's 3 games on a Super Bowl roster with an amazing HC. You think he's doing what he's done if he's a playing on the bears?

Are you trying to make me feel even worse about Trey? Super bowl roster, amazing HC.

Anyway, regarding on Purdy, he won't be as efficient, but he might throw for more yards either on a close game or in a blow out loss. But I think overall he will do good enough, which would still be impressive for any rookie QB.
Dec 22, 2022 at 6:09 PM
  • boast
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Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by boast:
if Brock lays an egg, i dont believe the game will define him. it would be more telling if he regresses over the rest of the season and post.

So two starts means he's Tom Brady one bad game doesn't fine him. Gotcha. How about we cut the crap and say objectively that no one knows what Brock or Lance will be long-term as it stands right now. Seems to make the most sense.

ive never claimed he's Tom Brady. i said so far he's playing in the outlier category.
Dec 22, 2022 at 6:10 PM
  • boast
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Originally posted by Wubbie:
Originally posted by boast:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by libertyforever:
As Tom Brady and Kurt Warner said, draft position is not that relevant.

Now bring up the hundreds of QBs that didn't turn into Kurt and Brady…stop using outliers to proclaim anything. Maybe Brock turns into the next Brady, history says otherwise. Just enjoy the games now and worry about the future when it's time to worry about it.

draft position is largely irrelevant tho


Meanwhile, the AFC:

Josh Allen - 1st Round, 7th Overall
Patrick Mahomes - 1st Round, 10th Overall
Joe Burrow - 1st Round, 1st Overall
Ryan Tannehill - 1st Round, 8th Overall (but acquired via trade); Malik Willis - 3rd Round
Lamar Jackson - 1st Round, 32nd Overall
Justin Herbert - 1st Round, 6th Overall
Tua Taigavaloa - 1st Round, 5th Overall

again cool. but you cant ignore that the NFC exists and shows that draft position doesnt prove how successful a player can be.
Dec 22, 2022 at 6:12 PM
  • boast
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Originally posted by boast:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by boast:
if Brock lays an egg, i dont believe the game will define him. it would be more telling if he regresses over the rest of the season and post.

So two starts means he's Tom Brady one bad game doesn't fine him. Gotcha. How about we cut the crap and say objectively that no one knows what Brock or Lance will be long-term as it stands right now. Seems to make the most sense.

ive never claimed he's Tom Brady. i said so far he's playing in the outlier category.

and ok cut the crap with trying to prove something about Purdy because of his draft position. youre the one who brought up draft position in the first place.
[ Edited by boast on Dec 22, 2022 at 6:13 PM ]
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