Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

Anyone who lets people call him booger i don't think holds to much water in my book. Those guys are just fishing for clicks and views as far as i'm concerned. So as far as i'm concerned they all can go to h##l. Go niners !!!!!!

Originally posted by NCommand:
Literally, the only concern I have for Trey initially, is his current mindset:

"I appreciate when I can play how I play and be off schedule."

Trey on his own game: 1:45 mark

Trey Lance talks #HOUvsSF prep. pic.twitter.com/vFN72gjGRp

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 31, 2021

I'm excited to see him grow in this area but initially, I'm expecting him to bail early and often and rely on hero-ball for a while. Some of it will be successful and some, not so much.

I'm also excited to see how Kyle handles it given how much of a control freak he is. LOL

Kyle drafted Trey over Fields for that reason imo. Trey will have a tendency to bail like most young QBs but I think Trey will play within the offense more than Fields or Wilson would have.

Trey's raw in terms of experience and his mechanics. But he's anything but raw in his understanding of a pro style offense.

Originally posted by goldlame2013:
Here's the deal, nobody is questioning his mental or physical abilities, bottom line, the kid is more raw than bloody red hamburger meat. He's a project. Deebo, Kittle, Bosa and coming up Aiyuk, are in their primes. By the time Trey is ready to play, the others are gonna past their primes and it's gonna be too be late. The team is built to challenge for a Superbowl now, not 3 yrs from now when an experienced QB finally gets it.. Keep something in mind folks, he has 4 yrs of High school, one yr, I repeat ONE YEAR of college against basically JUCO level competition, it's not like he was competing against the SEC. He started 2 games in the NFL, and that's it. Pete Carroll, Belichick, Raheem Morris, you name it, will eat him alive. I wish the front office had thought this through better.

Two years of college he red shirted in 2018. Let's put a touch more respect on FCS football and no I am not claiming they are Alabama. However, ndsu has not lost to an fbs team in 10+ years they beat #5 Iowa at one time. Fbs will not even schedule them at this point. They would beat the the middles to bottom of the SEC, big ten, pac-12 or any other division you put out there. They have proven this. They have more drafted players than most of the non top teams in these divisions. His team jabrill cox transferred to LSU and was immediately a starter and probably best defender on the team being drafted 14 overall.

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Literally, the only concern I have for Trey initially, is his current mindset:

"I appreciate when I can play how I play and be off schedule."

Trey on his own game: 1:45 mark

Trey Lance talks #HOUvsSF prep. pic.twitter.com/vFN72gjGRp

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 31, 2021

I'm excited to see him grow in this area but initially, I'm expecting him to bail early and often and rely on hero-ball for a while. Some of it will be successful and some, not so much.

I'm also excited to see how Kyle handles it given how much of a control freak he is. LOL

Kyle drafted Trey over Fields for that reason imo. Trey will have a tendency to bail like most young QBs but I think Trey will play within the offense more than Fields or Wilson would have.

Trey's raw in terms of experience and his mechanics. But he's anything but raw in his understanding of a pro style offense.

I can't wait until this kid get's the reps and balls out against all comers. I don't think it's going to take him all season to get in line with Kyles scheme, either.

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by Silky:
Well we're f*cked because Booger McFarland has major concerns about Trey Lance. Might as well trade him while we can still get something

f**k Booger.

Originally posted by TreyDeyEeyDey:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by ltrain:
https://denverfan.com/2097062/a-bold-move-would-add-a-long-term-answer-to-the-broncos-qb-question/

This time of year is absolutely nuts...only way we'd even consider it is if we don't think Lance is a FQB. Long story short, 3 1st rounders for Lance from Denver.

Crazy article. They pay people to write garbage like this?

Lolol so f**king stupid. 3 first? At the very least it would have to be 4 since if we traded him we wasted a pick. Even with that said... F* no.

If we get a low first round or high second round pick for Jimmy, 49ers will recoup a lot of what the 49ers paid a premium for to get Trey. As for four 1st round picks, the way Kyle's been developing Trey over the course of a year, I agree about the 4 firsts.

As for Trey being ready or not in 2022, didn't anybody watch the AZ game? The guy was so called "raw and rough around the edges" was able to bring the team to withing a TD of tying the game as the game ended. Keep in mind AZ, at the beginning of the year was playing *playoff caliber* football. AZ got destroyed by the Rams, but they did *make* the playoffs. This wasn't a chump change bottom feeding team like the Texans.

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Literally, the only concern I have for Trey initially, is his current mindset:

"I appreciate when I can play how I play and be off schedule."

Trey on his own game: 1:45 mark

Trey Lance talks #HOUvsSF prep. pic.twitter.com/vFN72gjGRp

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 31, 2021

I'm excited to see him grow in this area but initially, I'm expecting him to bail early and often and rely on hero-ball for a while. Some of it will be successful and some, not so much.

I'm also excited to see how Kyle handles it given how much of a control freak he is. LOL

Kyle drafted Trey over Fields for that reason imo. Trey will have a tendency to bail like most young QBs but I think Trey will play within the offense more than Fields or Wilson would have.

Trey's raw in terms of experience and his mechanics. But he's anything but raw in his understanding of a pro style offense.

True. Understanding the pro style system and standing in there through all the progressions and fighting that urge to bail too early will no doubt, be the early tightwire he'll learn to walk. And he's going to be unstoppable when he learns that balance.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Giedi:
Just for fun I did some rough calculations:
I used the information from NFL draft value pick from the WebZone Draft boards

Year
2021 #3 pick = 2200 {value for Trey Lance}

2021 #12 pick = 1200 {first round}
2022 #29 Pick = 640 {first round}
2022 #80 pick = 190 {3rd round pick - I just used the middle of the pack number - hoping its the average value of 3rd round picks in 2022}
2023 #16 pick = 1000 {first round pick - again I tried to pick the middle of the pack number - hoping it's the average value of first round picks in 2023}

You add the picks given up for Trey from 2021 through 2023 and you get 3030. So 3030 minus 2200 equals 830.
830 according to the draft value chart roughly equals the 20th pick in the first round.

So theoretically, the 49ers overpaid for Trey the equivalent of a 20th pick (first round) in the draft.

What you're not taking into consideration is it is said future picks are valued at one round less. Obviously with unknown picks you can't really put a clear value on it but the value of #29 this year and whatever our first rounder will be next season don't equal the value of same picks in last years draft.

So shave off value that value and check again.

Unfortunately there's no charts for the time value of future draft picks. I'd be going on more of a subjective path at that point. On the time value of draft picks, I *think* it goes like one round less, or something like that. Example: today's picks are worth more than tomorrows picks - i.e. a second rounder today is worth a first rounder tomorrow (or next year). I think that's how it goes - but how do you judge the time value of picks in the 3rd rounds and later? Also, the trade was done in 2021 not 2022 or 2023, shouldn't the value of the trade be better judged at the time of the trade and not as if the trade happened in 2022 or 2023?

I know there's no chart showing value of future picks but you're right about the value. That was my point.

2nd today is worth a first next year, etc.

So in 2021 we traded a first rounder(value is set as is)
2022 first(value in 2021 of a 2nd round pick)
2023 first(value in 2021 at least of a 2nd round pick)
2022 3rd rounder(value in 2021 of a 4th round pick)

So check the trade chart based on those vs giving point values as if all the picks were in 2021. No direct science to it of course but it's not as simple as value of 3rd overall for 12th overall, 29th overall and what whatever pick we get in the first next year and the 3rd comp pick this year.

Just off the cuff calculations - dropping a 1st round, 16th pick (using average/median of first round value) to 2nd round 16th pick drops the value from 1000 points to 420, which is an average of 580. 580 is valued at Round 2, pick 1 on the draft chart. So trying to analyze the 3 firsts and a 3rd by factoring in the time value, I think, results in a false valuation.

At the time of Trey's pick - in 2021 - you had actual data valuations on pick #3 and#12 -- but also a set of unknows (2022 round 1, 2022 round 3, 2023 round 1). We didn't know, at the time, that the first round pick in 2022 was going to be round 1 pick 29, so that's going to inflate the value *given* for Trey vs the actual value (round 1 pick 29). So now we *know* that in 2022 the first round pick is #29 vs an unknown projected number back in 2021, and hence you have a more accurate valuation of draft capital given up *now,* vs using and average first round pick valuation by trying to factor in time. Now in 2023, we again will have an even more accurate valuation of the draft capital given up for Trey because in the future, we will *know* the actual draft capital picks given up for Trey. In 2023, we will know exactly where we will draft because the season would have been played out. So I think factoring in the time value of draft picks would result in a lesser accurate valuation of the draft capital given up for Trey.

But clearly if you factor the time value of the draft capital given up, it's going to result in a greater disparity between what was given up vs the actual value of #3 in 2021.

Originally posted by Giedi:
Just off the cuff calculations - dropping a 1st round, 16th pick (using average/median of first round value) to 2nd round 16th pick drops the value from 1000 points to 420, which is an average of 580. 580 is valued at Round 2, pick 1 on the draft chart. So trying to analyze the 3 firsts and a 3rd by factoring in the time value, I think, results in a false valuation.

At the time of Trey's pick - in 2021 - you had actual data valuations on pick #3 and#12 -- but also a set of unknows (2022 round 1, 2022 round 3, 2023 round 1). We didn't know, at the time, that the first round pick in 2022 was going to be round 1 pick 29, so that's going to inflate the value *given* for Trey vs the actual value (round 1 pick 29). So now we *know* that in 2022 the first round pick is #29 vs an unknown projected number back in 2021, and hence you have a more accurate valuation of draft capital given up *now,* vs using and average first round pick valuation by trying to factor in time. Now in 2023, we again will have an even more accurate valuation of the draft capital given up for Trey because in the future, we will *know* the actual draft capital picks given up for Trey. In 2023, we will know exactly where we will draft because the season would have been played out. So I think factoring in the time value of draft picks would result in a lesser accurate valuation of the draft capital given up for Trey.

But clearly if you factor the time value of the draft capital given up, it's going to result in a greater disparity between what was given up vs the actual value of #3 in 2021.

So, wouldn't the way to do this be as follows:

Points for the 2021 draft picks (at that time / in 2021) + 2022 draft pick points (at this time / 2022) + 2023 draft pick points (known next year, and given at that time - meaning their worth in 2023, not their projected worth today, nor in 2021) = total cost?

Seems like that's what you said, but I just want to make sure. I never liked using projected cost as a way to determine actual cost, though I understand that's what you have to do given future considerations.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by ltrain:

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
You're confident he can take us to the playoffs then.

If Rodgers and Brady retire, the nfc is wide open. Rams likely aren't as good and Seahawks are either rebuilding or "running it back" with Wilson to likely not make playoffs.

If we can keep pace with the Rams in the division - I think we can get one of the wildcard spots. I think it'd be tough to win the division, though.

NFC West doesn't like repeat division winners.

Rams won it because Arizona completely collapsed and we didn't find our identity until almost halfway through the season.

I don't want to speculate on what will happen next season until we actually see what each roster will look like after FA/draft but I don't see Rams repeating.

The Rams will not repeat,save my post & book it. Just because Stafford won the SB does not change my view on him that he's an elite QB.

I mean Trent Dilfer won a SB, Nick Foles and they couldn't come close to doing it after that time the stars lined up just right.

Now don't get me wrong, I think Stafford has way more talent then those two but I'm not ready to say he's a top 5-7 QB. If he wins another SB in the next 3 years or goes deep into the playoffs 3 of 4 years, leads a couple late comebacks (against good teams, not the jets,browns,jax etc) then I'll change my view.

Originally posted by NC49er:
The Rams will not repeat,save my post & book it. Just because Stafford won the SB does not change my view on him that he's an elite QB.

I mean Trent Dilfer won a SB, Nick Foles and they couldn't come close to doing it after that time the stars lined up just right.

Now don't get me wrong, I think Stafford has way more talent then those two but I'm not ready to say he's a top 5-7 QB. If he wins another SB in the next 3 years or goes deep into the playoffs 3 of 4 years, leads a couple late comebacks (against good teams, not the jets,browns,jax etc) then I'll change my view.

Yeah that Rams team imo goes down as one of the worst champs ever imo. 7th in points for 15th in points against. They don't run very well. Kupp and three HOF defenders carried that team, as well as the coaching staff. Stafford obviously upgraded their QB room but his performance doesn't win the SB if he doesn't have Kupp, Miller, Donald and Ramsey.

10/10/21 We lose to AZ by 7 at Arizona (10-17)
11/07/21 We lose to AZ by 14 at Arizona (17-31)

What was the difference? Who was QB for each game.
Do people really still think Jimmy G was better than Lance in 2021?

Originally posted by NDSU:
10/10/21 We lose to AZ by 7 at Arizona (10-17)
11/07/21 We lose to AZ by 14 at Arizona (17-31)

What was the difference? Who was QB for each game.
Do people really still think Jimmy G was better than Lance in 2021?

That game was 100% on the defense and 2 bone headed fumbles. Jimmy played excellent that game

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Originally posted by Silky:
Well we're f*cked because Booger McFarland has major concerns about Trey Lance. Might as well trade him while we can still get something

I feel more confident now that Booger is concerned.

Grant Cohn>Booger

Scary

Originally posted by Polkadots:

Originally posted by Giedi:
Just off the cuff calculations - dropping a 1st round, 16th pick (using average/median of first round value) to 2nd round 16th pick drops the value from 1000 points to 420, which is an average of 580. 580 is valued at Round 2, pick 1 on the draft chart. So trying to analyze the 3 firsts and a 3rd by factoring in the time value, I think, results in a false valuation.

At the time of Trey's pick - in 2021 - you had actual data valuations on pick #3 and#12 -- but also a set of unknows (2022 round 1, 2022 round 3, 2023 round 1). We didn't know, at the time, that the first round pick in 2022 was going to be round 1 pick 29, so that's going to inflate the value *given* for Trey vs the actual value (round 1 pick 29). So now we *know* that in 2022 the first round pick is #29 vs an unknown projected number back in 2021, and hence you have a more accurate valuation of draft capital given up *now,* vs using and average first round pick valuation by trying to factor in time. Now in 2023, we again will have an even more accurate valuation of the draft capital given up for Trey because in the future, we will *know* the actual draft capital picks given up for Trey. In 2023, we will know exactly where we will draft because the season would have been played out. So I think factoring in the time value of draft picks would result in a lesser accurate valuation of the draft capital given up for Trey.

But clearly if you factor the time value of the draft capital given up, it's going to result in a greater disparity between what was given up vs the actual value of #3 in 2021.

So, wouldn't the way to do this be as follows:

Points for the 2021 draft picks (at that time / in 2021) + 2022 draft pick points (at this time / 2022) + 2023 draft pick points (known next year, and given at that time - meaning their worth in 2023, not their projected worth today, nor in 2021) = total cost?

Seems like that's what you said, but I just want to make sure. I never liked using projected cost as a way to determine actual cost, though I understand that's what you have to do given future considerations.

Agree, I like actual costs methods myself too. Projected costs are sometimes quite speculative. Having said that, the numbers do look a lot better if you speculate.

Ok, so the picks in 2022 that are known are (round 1, pick 29) and (round 3, pick 93) - which is a difference of 62 (so reduce my original 3rd round amount by 62). Makes sense because both 2022 picks were dropped in value because 49ers made the playoffs vs being a bottom feeder team in 2022. I didn't have the 3rd round data yet when I did that first off the cuff calculation. Just looked up now our 3rd round pick in 2022, and I believe it's #93.

If you factor in time value for the 2023 pick, that 2023 first round pick drops it to a 2nd round pick? Which if I use the median/average 2nd round picks is 420

**recalculating- based on the updated 3rd round pick data and dropping the 1rst round pick in 2023 to 2nd round**
Year
2021 #3 pick = 2200 {value for Trey Lance}

2021 #12 pick = 1200 {first round}
2022 #29 Pick = 640 {first round}
2022 #93 pick = 128 {3rd round pick - actual value vs my original average/media value of 190}
2023 #48 pick = 420 {the first is now a 2nd pick due to time value of the draft pick - again I tried to pick the middle of the pack number - hoping it's the average/median value of 2nd round picks in 2023}

You add the actual and projected picks given up for Trey from 2021 through 2023 and you get 2388. So 2388 minus 2200 equals .
188 according to the draft value chart that roughly equals the 80th pick in the 3rd round.

So theoretically, the 49ers overpaid for Trey the equivalent of the 80th pick in the 3rd round if you speculate.