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Originally posted by TreyDeyEeyDey:
They spent 3 first but only lost 2. I know this has been discussed but to me, we swapped first and spent 2.
Originally posted by Bluesbro:
It only that, but the value of 1sts last year was heavily in favor of the 49ers. To me it was like trading 1.5 1sts in value. All this talk will go away if Trey takes off. And that is exactly what I expect. No way he is a bust unless he has the Unlucky Jimmy curse with injuries.
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
One side insisting he has underwhelmed. Another side insisting he'll tear the league up.
Can we trade Jimmy already and end this nonsense? Already tired of it.
NNobody is saying Trey has underwhelmed. Just said he's not going to be ready in 2022. That's the argument. And ready means getting us in the playoffs with 10 wins or more. Tall order for a Cub Scout who's 22. Can you name any NFL quarterback that has taken his team to a winning record at 22? Doesn't happen a lot
And he's never gonna be "ready" until he gets to actually play football.
jackson was 21 when he went to the playoffs. Micheal Vick was 22. Big Ben 22. Hurts, Watson, Mahomes Wilson etc were 23.
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Thanks for looking this up. Vick didnt win 10 games til he was 24. Ben and lamar won 13 games at 22. So that's two guys since 2004. anyone else?
roughly 2 players / 18 years = 11%
The odds look low to me.
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Vick won a playoff game at 22. I didn't look up anything that was off the top of my head. Most QBs drafted high go to trash teams….so why would you expect them to go to the playoffs or win 10+ games. The roster matters and we've said this for yrs.
Almost got to a SB with avg ass banged up Jimmy lol.
Originally posted by Giedi:
Just for fun I did some rough calculations:
I used the information from NFL draft value pick from the WebZone Draft boards
Year
2021 #3 pick = 2200 {value for Trey Lance}
2021 #12 pick = 1200 {first round}
2022 #29 Pick = 640 {first round}
2022 #80 pick = 190 {3rd round pick - I just used the middle of the pack number - hoping its the average value of 3rd round picks in 2022}
2023 #16 pick = 1000 {first round pick - again I tried to pick the middle of the pack number - hoping it's the average value of first round picks in 2023}
You add the picks given up for Trey from 2021 through 2023 and you get 3030. So 3030 minus 2200 equals 830.
830 according to the draft value chart roughly equals the 20th pick in the first round.
So theoretically, the 49ers overpaid for Trey the equivalent of a 20th pick (first round) in the draft.
Originally posted by ltrain:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Just for fun I did some rough calculations:
I used the information from NFL draft value pick from the WebZone Draft boards
Year
2021 #3 pick = 2200 {value for Trey Lance}
2021 #12 pick = 1200 {first round}
2022 #29 Pick = 640 {first round}
2022 #80 pick = 190 {3rd round pick - I just used the middle of the pack number - hoping its the average value of 3rd round picks in 2022}
2023 #16 pick = 1000 {first round pick - again I tried to pick the middle of the pack number - hoping it's the average value of first round picks in 2023}
You add the picks given up for Trey from 2021 through 2023 and you get 3030. So 3030 minus 2200 equals 830.
830 according to the draft value chart roughly equals the 20th pick in the first round.
So theoretically, the 49ers overpaid for Trey the equivalent of a 20th pick (first round) in the draft.
So, if we can get around 830 points of draft value out of Jimmy, we get around a wash in value? I'd take that as a win. I appreciate the work done here, however it all still comes down whether lance is a franchise quarterback. If he is, he's worth 10000 points. If he's a bust, the trade is -10000 and we start over at qb and front office.
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
vick lucked out with an 8-6-1 record. Will that work for us, do you think?
Watch your insults bub. second quartile jimmy. better than average.
Here's an interesting article that says 20-21 year old qb's drafted in the first round do better in the NFL than 22-23 year iolds.
If they have 30 games experience in college.
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/18979/nfl-draft-does-age-matter-for-quarterback-prospects
This study looks at 17 years of 1st round picks. So not just the first couple years of performance.
I still got my Kap one
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
vick lucked out with an 8-6-1 record. Will that work for us, do you think?
Watch your insults bub. second quartile jimmy. better than average.
Here's an interesting article that says 20-21 year old qb's drafted in the first round do better in the NFL than 22-23 year iolds.
If they have 30 games experience in college.
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/18979/nfl-draft-does-age-matter-for-quarterback-prospects
This study looks at 17 years of 1st round picks. So not just the first couple years of performance.
Jimmy is avg and his 170 yards and 3 INTs 2 TD in the playoffs is actually being generous. Bud.
that article is what 3 or 4 yrs old? Man you're gonna be so mad if Lance plays a part in SF making the playoffs lol. It's cool dude you can still rock the Jimmy jersey
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
I'll be mad if we don't make the playoffs because our cherub isn't ready for prime time the way you are asserting.
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
I'll be mad if we don't make the playoffs because our cherub isn't ready for prime time the way you are asserting.
Originally posted by NYniner85:
People acting like Lance is replacing Brett Favre or something…
"I will be surprised if Trey Lance in 2022 isn't as good or better than Garoppolo was in 2021," King told Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area. "And having said that, I think that Garoppolo was better than he will ultimately get credit for."I don't necessarily agree that he will be better as far as having a grasp of the position, but he will bring added elements to the table that can make a bigger impact.
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
If we make the playoffs then of course Lance will have something to do with it. Only posters pushing agendas believe that a team can reach the playoffs without the assistance of the QB lol