Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Los Angeles Rams

The classic Jimmy excuse…he was injured. Y'all say that as if he was lighting it up and then all of the sudden his play dropped off a cliff.

He was average from beginning to end, injured or not injured, with spurts of sub par play and glimmers of above average play sprinkled in. He missed throws like the one above multiple times even when he was healthy.

Originally posted by Goatie:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by Goatie:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
IMO, this is why we are moving on from Jimmy. He misses both a wide open Deebo down the sideline. Probably because he doesn't have the confidence to make that throw. We have seen time and time again if you reference back to the over throw to Juice earlier in the season and the over throw to Aiyuk in the playoffs. He also misses a wide open Aiyuk in the middle of the field on the same play. We have seen him make this type of throw many times so either he was blind or had a mental lapse on the play. This play occured on the second to last drive of the game. I have atleast three other plays where Jimmy missed open receivers on the last two drives of the NFCCG.

Sad thing is, these types of missed opportunities are also why we lost the super bowl. Jimmy is good enough to win games but he will never be good enough to put us over the top. The rams sold out to stop our running game and Jimmy was reluctant to advantage of it.

One suggestion he had a bum throw hand and shoulder. No way he is operating at 100%. Perhaps he knows his ability to drive the deep ball is compromised to a degree in this game.

That said he had a 70 QBR in this one. Posted a higher QBR than Matt S in this game. Not the reason we lost.

We are moving on imo cuz we got shelled in 2018 and 2020. JG misses seasons like the SF Giants used to win championships; consistently and even years.

And Lance will never have an injury ever nor miss any game time.

I mean he's already had em and yeah he probably will. Law of averages says he'll be more durable than JG I guess

One gripe here is I consistently see no protection of our investment we make in players. In 2018 JG had the boundary vs KC. He was fresh off signing the $137m deal. Did anyone pull him aside and say look you are too valuable to the club to put yourself at risk? Obviously not, at least if they did it didn't get through. Then we see the usage of TL vs Arizona after we invested 3 firsts. Used the dude as a battering ram. Need to get smarter here and that comes from the top imo.

Never invested properly in the oline either

never ?

Trent W, Mack, two drafted OL this past season which was a regime first

The GB game was on last night and I had the misfortune of deciding to watch it again.
Jimmy either was not seeing the field or refused to throw deep. It was really bad.

Originally posted by NDSU:
The GB game was on last night and I had the misfortune of deciding to watch it again.
Jimmy either was not seeing the field or refused to throw deep. It was really bad.

DI'd you also see how s**tty the hall of famer played as well? At the end of the day Jimmy made the plays in the last drive to win and Mr hall of famer didn't.

Originally posted by JoseCortez:

Originally posted by NDSU:
The GB game was on last night and I had the misfortune of deciding to watch it again.
Jimmy either was not seeing the field or refused to throw deep. It was really bad.

DI'd you also see how s**tty the hall of famer played as well? At the end of the day Jimmy made the plays in the last drive to win and Mr hall of famer didn't.

I do agree with that. His te and receivers didn't exactly do him any favors in the first half of the GB either.

Originally posted by cciowa:

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by cciowa:

Originally posted by mayo49:
3 more months until Jimmy is throwing again.

kicking the dominoes down the road.. or moving the domino goal post?

suppose the surgery makes jimmy throw better

this is not the six million dollar man here. john lynch is no oscar goldman. whoever did the surgery on jimmy is no dr rudy. can we just stop moving this goal post down the road..... a new shoulder no matter how bionic it is will not fix jimmys brain and decision making. please stop

Well what im saying is that is there any chance that some of Jimmy's crazy throws, like the dallas int, were due to his bum shoulder. So now his shoulder will be better. Will it make a difference? Or is this whole surgery thing a phony baloney smoke screen.

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by cciowa:

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by cciowa:

Originally posted by mayo49:
3 more months until Jimmy is throwing again.

kicking the dominoes down the road.. or moving the domino goal post?

suppose the surgery makes jimmy throw better

this is not the six million dollar man here. john lynch is no oscar goldman. whoever did the surgery on jimmy is no dr rudy. can we just stop moving this goal post down the road..... a new shoulder no matter how bionic it is will not fix jimmys brain and decision making. please stop

Well what im saying is that is there any chance that some of Jimmy's crazy throws, like the dallas int, were due to his bum shoulder. So now his shoulder will be better. Will it make a difference? Or is this whole surgery thing a phony baloney smoke screen.

This shoulder surgery seemed to catch the fo by surprise. If Jimmy knew his injury was enough to limit his ability to make the necessary throws to win the game. However, refused to take himself out or let his coach and/or medical staff make an informed decision. That would make Jimmy look even worse. Lets not take it down that road though.

Edit: Shanahan noted he talks with Lance "all the time." As for Garoppolo, not so much.

"We don't do a lot of talking in the offseason. Jimmy is not the most communicating guy," Shanahan said.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Oh yeah, for contrast, here's Trubisky's ranking using his last full season: (1729 + (45*17) - (45*10))/(516) = 3.96.

The Steelers wanted this guy over Jimmy?

Using the half-assed version with the multiple on the coefficient for QBs with fewer attempts, last year he'd be: (26 + (.25*45*0) - (.25*45*1))/(8) = 1.84. 1.84!

What in the world, this is not a starting QB.

Don't follow your poindexter math but Trubisky is top 32

29-21 as starter
87 rating
27 yrs old
former #2 overall has the height, weight, arm strength, mobility that teams covet

Upgrade over I should have retired 2 years ago Ben Cheeseburger.

Yeah, if you go by his last season where he actually did some playing, he ranks as a starter. That 3.96 would be just behind Jared Goff.

As I was researching ways to value those coefficients, I discovered something interesting: The first version of this I made was actually very close to what a statistician who worked on a book called "The Hidden Game of Football" decided for AY/A.

The differences are that they used yards instead of completed air yards, and reversed the coefficients (20 on TDs, and 45 on INTs). Now, for them, since they were calculating adjusted YARDS, the reason for the 45 had to do with an estimation about what a turnover approximately costs in terms of yards. Something similar with the TDs. Later calculations from other people determined those values should be 23.3 and 67 respectfully.

So, we can do an Adjusted AIR YARDS/Attempt as a good passer rating, using these new numbers, except combining them with completed air yards instead of standard yards.

That formula would be:

(CAY + 23.3*TD - 67*INT)/ATT

I don't feel like doing all the QBs like this again, but I'll do a few to get a feel on how this would work:

Tier 1 guys:
Rodgers: (1947 + 23.3*37 - 67*4)/531 = 4.79
Wilson: (1730 + 23.3*25 - 67*6)/400 = 4.78
Winston: (589 + 23.3*14 - 67*3)/161 = 4.44
Stafford: (2760 + 23.3*41 - 67*17)/601 = 4.29
Tier 2 guys:
Lance: (315 + 23.3*5 - 67*2)/71 = 4.19
Brady: (2762 + 23.3*43 - 67*12)/719 = 4.12
Bridgewater: (1658 + 23.3*18 - 67*7)/426 = 3.78
Jimmy: (1844 + 23.3*20 - 67*12)/441 = 3.41
Mahomes: (2140 + 23.3*37 - 67*13)/658 = 3.24
Mac Jones: (2027 + 23.3*22 - 67*13)/521 = 3.20
Tier 3 guys:
Tannehill: (1958 + 23.3*21 - 67*14)/531 = 2.84
Darnold: (1151 + 23.3*9 - 67*13)/406 = 1.21

So looking at this, it cannot be right. Because when I did Kirk Cousins, he scored 4.84.

Now, BEFORE this 23.3 and 67 coefficients were used, the ORIGINAL work in "The Hidden Game of Football" used 20 and 45 respectfully. Using THAT instead (this brings Jimmy's score up a bit):

Rodgers: (1947 + 20*37 - 45*4)/531 = 4.72
Wilson: (1730 + 20*25 - 45*6)/400 = 4.9
Winston: (589 + 20*14 - 45*3)/161 = 4.56
Stafford: (2760 + 20*41 - 45*17)/601 = 4.68
Tier 2 guys:
Lance: (315 + 20*5 - 45*2)/71 = 4.56
Brady: (2762 + 20*43 - 45*12)/719 = 4.29
Bridgewater: (1658 + 20*18 - 45*7)/426 = 4.0
Jimmy: (1844 + 20*20 - 45*12)/441 = 3.86
Mahomes: (2140 + 20*37 - 45*13)/658 = 3.49
Mac Jones: (2027 + 20*22 - 45*13)/521 = 3.61
Tier 3 guys:
Tannehill: (1958 + 20*21-45*14)/531 = 3.29
Darnold: (1151 + 20*9 - 45*13)/406 = 1.84

Cousins (litmus test): (2415 + 20*33 - 45*7)/561 = 4.9 Ugh. Still too high. I admit he had fantastic numbers, but he's not the best QB, and wasn't last year. You could certainly make the argument that he was somewhere in tier one with those numbers, but if he was, it's at the bottom.

As far as ADJUSTED AIR YARDS PER ATTEMPT, this stat, even the very first version of it, probably works really, really well. But as a QB rating? Not quite. There is something missing.

This is all intersting. Im super busy these lately and cant get it together to sortbout my thoughts and respond. But hope to soon.

Originally posted by JoseCortez:
DI'd you also see how s**tty the hall of famer played as well? At the end of the day Jimmy made the plays in the last drive to win and Mr hall of famer didn't.

Mr. Hall of Famer got his team downfield in less than half a minute to score the win. Something Jimmy cannot do.

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Oh yeah, for contrast, here's Trubisky's ranking using his last full season: (1729 + (45*17) - (45*10))/(516) = 3.96.

The Steelers wanted this guy over Jimmy?

Using the half-assed version with the multiple on the coefficient for QBs with fewer attempts, last year he'd be: (26 + (.25*45*0) - (.25*45*1))/(8) = 1.84. 1.84!

What in the world, this is not a starting QB.

Don't follow your poindexter math but Trubisky is top 32

29-21 as starter
87 rating
27 yrs old
former #2 overall has the height, weight, arm strength, mobility that teams covet

Upgrade over I should have retired 2 years ago Ben Cheeseburger.

Yeah, if you go by his last season where he actually did some playing, he ranks as a starter. That 3.96 would be just behind Jared Goff.

As I was researching ways to value those coefficients, I discovered something interesting: The first version of this I made was actually very close to what a statistician who worked on a book called "The Hidden Game of Football" decided for AY/A.

The differences are that they used yards instead of completed air yards, and reversed the coefficients (20 on TDs, and 45 on INTs). Now, for them, since they were calculating adjusted YARDS, the reason for the 45 had to do with an estimation about what a turnover approximately costs in terms of yards. Something similar with the TDs. Later calculations from other people determined those values should be 23.3 and 67 respectfully.

So, we can do an Adjusted AIR YARDS/Attempt as a good passer rating, using these new numbers, except combining them with completed air yards instead of standard yards.

That formula would be:

(CAY + 23.3*TD - 67*INT)/ATT

I don't feel like doing all the QBs like this again, but I'll do a few to get a feel on how this would work:

Tier 1 guys:
Rodgers: (1947 + 23.3*37 - 67*4)/531 = 4.79
Wilson: (1730 + 23.3*25 - 67*6)/400 = 4.78
Winston: (589 + 23.3*14 - 67*3)/161 = 4.44
Stafford: (2760 + 23.3*41 - 67*17)/601 = 4.29
Tier 2 guys:
Lance: (315 + 23.3*5 - 67*2)/71 = 4.19
Brady: (2762 + 23.3*43 - 67*12)/719 = 4.12
Bridgewater: (1658 + 23.3*18 - 67*7)/426 = 3.78
Jimmy: (1844 + 23.3*20 - 67*12)/441 = 3.41
Mahomes: (2140 + 23.3*37 - 67*13)/658 = 3.24
Mac Jones: (2027 + 23.3*22 - 67*13)/521 = 3.20
Tier 3 guys:
Tannehill: (1958 + 23.3*21 - 67*14)/531 = 2.84
Darnold: (1151 + 23.3*9 - 67*13)/406 = 1.21

So looking at this, it cannot be right. Because when I did Kirk Cousins, he scored 4.84.

Now, BEFORE this 23.3 and 67 coefficients were used, the ORIGINAL work in "The Hidden Game of Football" used 20 and 45 respectfully. Using THAT instead (this brings Jimmy's score up a bit):

Rodgers: (1947 + 20*37 - 45*4)/531 = 4.72
Wilson: (1730 + 20*25 - 45*6)/400 = 4.9
Winston: (589 + 20*14 - 45*3)/161 = 4.56
Stafford: (2760 + 20*41 - 45*17)/601 = 4.68
Tier 2 guys:
Lance: (315 + 20*5 - 45*2)/71 = 4.56
Brady: (2762 + 20*43 - 45*12)/719 = 4.29
Bridgewater: (1658 + 20*18 - 45*7)/426 = 4.0
Jimmy: (1844 + 20*20 - 45*12)/441 = 3.86
Mahomes: (2140 + 20*37 - 45*13)/658 = 3.49
Mac Jones: (2027 + 20*22 - 45*13)/521 = 3.61
Tier 3 guys:
Tannehill: (1958 + 20*21-45*14)/531 = 3.29
Darnold: (1151 + 20*9 - 45*13)/406 = 1.84

Cousins (litmus test): (2415 + 20*33 - 45*7)/561 = 4.9 Ugh. Still too high. I admit he had fantastic numbers, but he's not the best QB, and wasn't last year. You could certainly make the argument that he was somewhere in tier one with those numbers, but if he was, it's at the bottom.

As far as ADJUSTED AIR YARDS PER ATTEMPT, this stat, even the very first version of it, probably works really, really well. But as a QB rating? Not quite. There is something missing.

This is all intersting. Im super busy these lately and cant get it together to sortbout my thoughts and respond. But hope to soon.

I think it can be much better.

We need to figure out to what degree an interception hurts, and to what degree not throwing any at all hurts (because if you're not taking any risks, you're not scoring a lot of points). Same for TDs, and same for CAY.

I don't think any of these can be known for certain, but I fear that making a good weight for these three factors will require analyzing at least an entire season of passing data. Fortunately, that's been done by other people, but it's hard to find that stuff. Also, they don't always agree (for example, in the above post, one said interceptions cost about 67 yards [converted], and another 45).

What I DO like though, is a straight up summing of these terms and dividing by attempts. It's really neat mathematically. The trick is to weight those three things appropriately.

And again, I don't see much need to include completion percentage. I was looking at some data regarding dispersion from the mean for these three things and completion percentage, and completion percentage just didn't vary that much. Everyone was between about 10 points, with the overwhelming majority being within just a few points. But, correlating something like mean Mean absolute deviation (around the mean itself, and perhaps divided by it to kind of normalize it) with success (probably success scoring) could give some insight into the order of importance for those stats. By that I mean, essentially, looking at the most successful QBs and finding out which of these stats most reliably correlate with their success. Sounds easy, but the other than the grunt work (the hardest part), the difficulty is then converting that information into an equation that properly weights each of these categories.

Originally posted by NDSU:

Originally posted by JoseCortez:
DI'd you also see how s**tty the hall of famer played as well? At the end of the day Jimmy made the plays in the last drive to win and Mr hall of famer didn't.

Mr. Hall of Famer got his team downfield in less than half a minute to score the win. Something Jimmy cannot do.

He can.

By handing it off to Deebo.

Don't know how Lance will fair, but wish him luck. However, everyone proclaiming Lance will or can do this or do that might be in for some disappointment. As everyone knows, he needs to get on the field to gain experience, but don't be surprised if his first ends up hopeful but refrained like Aaron Rodger's first year after sitting for the first three.

As for Jimmy, got no hate on him, despite his limitations, he won, yes we had a good D and running game, but yet all those other QBs that played when he didn't, should have gotten similar results if he was that bad. I'll take Jimmy over a lot of others.

Originally posted by JoseCortez:
DI'd you also see how s**tty the hall of famer played as well? At the end of the day Jimmy made the plays in the last drive to win and Mr hall of famer didn't.

Jimmy making plays in one drive ain't sustainable and won't get this team over the hump.

Originally posted by WildBill:
Don't know how Lance will fair, but wish him luck. However, everyone proclaiming Lance will or can do this or do that might be in for some disappointment. As everyone knows, he needs to get on the field to gain experience, but don't be surprised if his first ends up hopeful but refrained like Aaron Rodger's first year after sitting for the first three.

As for Jimmy, got no hate on him, despite his limitations, he won, yes we had a good D and running game, but yet all those other QBs that played when he didn't, should have gotten similar results if he was that bad. I'll take Jimmy over a lot of others.

Yup. We'll have to deal with some growing pains. But the same can be said about jimmy even though he's been in the league for many years. That is why we need to make the switch.

Can't keep spinning the wheels with Jimmy G. His ceiling is being a stop-gap QB. Serviceable, but not close to elite.

Originally posted by eric_anthony:
Jimmy making plays in one drive ain't sustainable and won't get this team over the hump.

So the ability to go 70 yards in 30 seconds in the final minutes of a game to win is not a sustainable goal for Jimmy.
Thanks for making my point.