Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Oh yeah, for contrast, here's Trubisky's ranking using his last full season: (1729 + (45*17) - (45*10))/(516) = 3.96.

The Steelers wanted this guy over Jimmy?

Using the half-assed version with the multiple on the coefficient for QBs with fewer attempts, last year he'd be: (26 + (.25*45*0) - (.25*45*1))/(8) = 1.84. 1.84!

What in the world, this is not a starting QB.

Don't follow your poindexter math but Trubisky is top 32

29-21 as starter
87 rating
27 yrs old
former #2 overall has the height, weight, arm strength, mobility that teams covet

Upgrade over I should have retired 2 years ago Ben Cheeseburger.

Didn't read. Lol

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:
Can't read. Lol

Over/Under 30+ post about Jimmy being traded random places tomorrow?

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Oh yeah, for contrast, here's Trubisky's ranking using his last full season: (1729 + (45*17) - (45*10))/(516) = 3.96.

The Steelers wanted this guy over Jimmy?

Using the half-assed version with the multiple on the coefficient for QBs with fewer attempts, last year he'd be: (26 + (.25*45*0) - (.25*45*1))/(8) = 1.84. 1.84!

What in the world, this is not a starting QB.

Don't follow your poindexter math but Trubisky is top 32

29-21 as starter
87 rating
27 yrs old
former #2 overall has the height, weight, arm strength, mobility that teams covet

Upgrade over I should have retired 2 years ago Ben Cheeseburger.

Yeah, if you go by his last season where he actually did some playing, he ranks as a starter. That 3.96 would be just behind Jared Goff.

As I was researching ways to value those coefficients, I discovered something interesting: The first version of this I made was actually very close to what a statistician who worked on a book called "The Hidden Game of Football" decided for AY/A.

The differences are that they used yards instead of completed air yards, and reversed the coefficients (20 on TDs, and 45 on INTs). Now, for them, since they were calculating adjusted YARDS, the reason for the 45 had to do with an estimation about what a turnover approximately costs in terms of yards. Something similar with the TDs. Later calculations from other people determined those values should be 23.3 and 67 respectfully.

So, we can do an Adjusted AIR YARDS/Attempt as a good passer rating, using these new numbers, except combining them with completed air yards instead of standard yards.

That formula would be:


I don't feel like doing all the QBs like this again, but I'll do a few to get a feel on how this would work:

Tier 1 guys:
Rodgers: (1947 + 23.3*37 - 67*4)/531 = 4.79
Wilson: (1730 + 23.3*25 - 67*6)/400 = 4.78
Winston: (589 + 23.3*14 - 67*3)/161 = 4.44
Stafford: (2760 + 23.3*41 - 67*17)/601 = 4.29
Tier 2 guys:
Lance: (315 + 23.3*5 - 67*2)/71 = 4.19
Brady: (2762 + 23.3*43 - 67*12)/719 = 4.12
Bridgewater: (1658 + 23.3*18 - 67*7)/426 = 3.78
Jimmy: (1844 + 23.3*20 - 67*12)/441 = 3.41
Mahomes: (2140 + 23.3*37 - 67*13)/658 = 3.24
Mac Jones: (2027 + 23.3*22 - 67*13)/521 = 3.20
Tier 3 guys:
Tannehill: (1958 + 23.3*21 - 67*14)/531 = 2.84
Darnold: (1151 + 23.3*9 - 67*13)/406 = 1.21

So looking at this, it cannot be right. Because when I did Kirk Cousins, he scored 4.84.

Now, BEFORE this 23.3 and 67 coefficients were used, the ORIGINAL work in "The Hidden Game of Football" used 20 and 45 respectfully. Using THAT instead (this brings Jimmy's score up a bit):

Rodgers: (1947 + 20*37 - 45*4)/531 = 4.72
Wilson: (1730 + 20*25 - 45*6)/400 = 4.9
Winston: (589 + 20*14 - 45*3)/161 = 4.56
Stafford: (2760 + 20*41 - 45*17)/601 = 4.68
Tier 2 guys:
Lance: (315 + 20*5 - 45*2)/71 = 4.56
Brady: (2762 + 20*43 - 45*12)/719 = 4.29
Bridgewater: (1658 + 20*18 - 45*7)/426 = 4.0
Jimmy: (1844 + 20*20 - 45*12)/441 = 3.86
Mahomes: (2140 + 20*37 - 45*13)/658 = 3.49
Mac Jones: (2027 + 20*22 - 45*13)/521 = 3.61
Tier 3 guys:
Tannehill: (1958 + 20*21-45*14)/531 = 3.29
Darnold: (1151 + 20*9 - 45*13)/406 = 1.84

Cousins (litmus test): (2415 + 20*33 - 45*7)/561 = 4.9 Ugh. Still too high. I admit he had fantastic numbers, but he's not the best QB, and wasn't last year. You could certainly make the argument that he was somewhere in tier one with those numbers, but if he was, it's at the bottom.

As far as ADJUSTED AIR YARDS PER ATTEMPT, this stat, even the very first version of it, probably works really, really well. But as a QB rating? Not quite. There is something missing.

I would argue that my version better reflects on the order of actual QBs. The one with the 45 and 45 coefficients.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Oh yeah, for contrast, here's Trubisky's ranking using his last full season: (1729 + (45*17) - (45*10))/(516) = 3.96.

The Steelers wanted this guy over Jimmy?

Using the half-assed version with the multiple on the coefficient for QBs with fewer attempts, last year he'd be: (26 + (.25*45*0) - (.25*45*1))/(8) = 1.84. 1.84!

What in the world, this is not a starting QB.

Don't follow your poindexter math but Trubisky is top 32

29-21 as starter
87 rating
27 yrs old
former #2 overall has the height, weight, arm strength, mobility that teams covet

Upgrade over I should have retired 2 years ago Ben Cheeseburger.

Yeah, if you go by his last season where he actually did some playing, he ranks as a starter. That 3.96 would be just behind Jared Goff.

As I was researching ways to value those coefficients, I discovered something interesting: The first version of this I made was actually very close to what a statistician who worked on a book called "The Hidden Game of Football" decided for AY/A.

The differences are that they used yards instead of completed air yards, and reversed the coefficients (20 on TDs, and 45 on INTs). Now, for them, since they were calculating adjusted YARDS, the reason for the 45 had to do with an estimation about what a turnover approximately costs in terms of yards. Something similar with the TDs. Later calculations from other people determined those values should be 23.3 and 67 respectfully.

So, we can do an Adjusted AIR YARDS/Attempt as a good passer rating, using these new numbers, except combining them with completed air yards instead of standard yards.

That formula would be:

(CAY + 23.3*TD - 67*INT)/ATT

I don't feel like doing all the QBs like this again, but I'll do a few to get a feel on how this would work:

Tier 1 guys:
Rodgers: (1947 + 23.3*37 - 67*4)/531 = 4.79
Wilson: (1730 + 23.3*25 - 67*6)/400 = 4.78
Winston: (589 + 23.3*14 - 67*3)/161 = 4.44
Stafford: (2760 + 23.3*41 - 67*17)/601 = 4.29
Tier 2 guys:
Lance: (315 + 23.3*5 - 67*2)/71 = 4.19
Brady: (2762 + 23.3*43 - 67*12)/719 = 4.12
Bridgewater: (1658 + 23.3*18 - 67*7)/426 = 3.78
Jimmy: (1844 + 23.3*20 - 67*12)/441 = 3.41
Mahomes: (2140 + 23.3*37 - 67*13)/658 = 3.24
Mac Jones: (2027 + 23.3*22 - 67*13)/521 = 3.20
Tier 3 guys:
Tannehill: (1958 + 23.3*21 - 67*14)/531 = 2.84
Darnold: (1151 + 23.3*9 - 67*13)/406 = 1.21

So looking at this, it cannot be right. Because when I did Kirk Cousins, he scored 4.84.

Now, BEFORE this 23.3 and 67 coefficients were used, the ORIGINAL work in "The Hidden Game of Football" used 20 and 45 respectfully. Using THAT instead (this brings Jimmy's score up a bit):

Rodgers: (1947 + 20*37 - 45*4)/531 = 4.72
Wilson: (1730 + 20*25 - 45*6)/400 = 4.9
Winston: (589 + 20*14 - 45*3)/161 = 4.56
Stafford: (2760 + 20*41 - 45*17)/601 = 4.68
Tier 2 guys:
Lance: (315 + 20*5 - 45*2)/71 = 4.56
Brady: (2762 + 20*43 - 45*12)/719 = 4.29
Bridgewater: (1658 + 20*18 - 45*7)/426 = 4.0
Jimmy: (1844 + 20*20 - 45*12)/441 = 3.86
Mahomes: (2140 + 20*37 - 45*13)/658 = 3.49
Mac Jones: (2027 + 20*22 - 45*13)/521 = 3.61
Tier 3 guys:
Tannehill: (1958 + 20*21-45*14)/531 = 3.29
Darnold: (1151 + 20*9 - 45*13)/406 = 1.84

Cousins (litmus test): (2415 + 20*33 - 45*7)/561 = 4.9 Ugh. Still too high. I admit he had fantastic numbers, but he's not the best QB, and wasn't last year. You could certainly make the argument that he was somewhere in tier one with those numbers, but if he was, it's at the bottom.

As far as ADJUSTED AIR YARDS PER ATTEMPT, this stat, even the very first version of it, probably works really, really well. But as a QB rating? Not quite. There is something missing.

Be careful adjusting that formula too much. You may end up creating a list that proves your bias more than it proves actual facts.

I don't believe JG will be around once the regular season kicks off

But in the event that JG is still here by then, he'll be watching Lance perform while keeping the bench warm enjoying a meatball sammich

Looking forward to the April Fools Garoppolo trade report

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Oh yeah, for contrast, here's Trubisky's ranking using his last full season: (1729 + (45*17) - (45*10))/(516) = 3.96.

The Steelers wanted this guy over Jimmy?

Using the half-assed version with the multiple on the coefficient for QBs with fewer attempts, last year he'd be: (26 + (.25*45*0) - (.25*45*1))/(8) = 1.84. 1.84!

What in the world, this is not a starting QB.

Don't follow your poindexter math but Trubisky is top 32

29-21 as starter
87 rating
27 yrs old
former #2 overall has the height, weight, arm strength, mobility that teams covet

Upgrade over I should have retired 2 years ago Ben Cheeseburger.

Yeah, if you go by his last season where he actually did some playing, he ranks as a starter. That 3.96 would be just behind Jared Goff.

As I was researching ways to value those coefficients, I discovered something interesting: The first version of this I made was actually very close to what a statistician who worked on a book called "The Hidden Game of Football" decided for AY/A.

The differences are that they used yards instead of completed air yards, and reversed the coefficients (20 on TDs, and 45 on INTs). Now, for them, since they were calculating adjusted YARDS, the reason for the 45 had to do with an estimation about what a turnover approximately costs in terms of yards. Something similar with the TDs. Later calculations from other people determined those values should be 23.3 and 67 respectfully.

So, we can do an Adjusted AIR YARDS/Attempt as a good passer rating, using these new numbers, except combining them with completed air yards instead of standard yards.

That formula would be:

(CAY + 23.3*TD - 67*INT)/ATT

I don't feel like doing all the QBs like this again, but I'll do a few to get a feel on how this would work:

Tier 1 guys:
Rodgers: (1947 + 23.3*37 - 67*4)/531 = 4.79
Wilson: (1730 + 23.3*25 - 67*6)/400 = 4.78
Winston: (589 + 23.3*14 - 67*3)/161 = 4.44
Stafford: (2760 + 23.3*41 - 67*17)/601 = 4.29
Tier 2 guys:
Lance: (315 + 23.3*5 - 67*2)/71 = 4.19
Brady: (2762 + 23.3*43 - 67*12)/719 = 4.12
Bridgewater: (1658 + 23.3*18 - 67*7)/426 = 3.78
Jimmy: (1844 + 23.3*20 - 67*12)/441 = 3.41
Mahomes: (2140 + 23.3*37 - 67*13)/658 = 3.24
Mac Jones: (2027 + 23.3*22 - 67*13)/521 = 3.20
Tier 3 guys:
Tannehill: (1958 + 23.3*21 - 67*14)/531 = 2.84
Darnold: (1151 + 23.3*9 - 67*13)/406 = 1.21

So looking at this, it cannot be right. Because when I did Kirk Cousins, he scored 4.84.

Now, BEFORE this 23.3 and 67 coefficients were used, the ORIGINAL work in "The Hidden Game of Football" used 20 and 45 respectfully. Using THAT instead (this brings Jimmy's score up a bit):

Rodgers: (1947 + 20*37 - 45*4)/531 = 4.72
Wilson: (1730 + 20*25 - 45*6)/400 = 4.9
Winston: (589 + 20*14 - 45*3)/161 = 4.56
Stafford: (2760 + 20*41 - 45*17)/601 = 4.68
Tier 2 guys:
Lance: (315 + 20*5 - 45*2)/71 = 4.56
Brady: (2762 + 20*43 - 45*12)/719 = 4.29
Bridgewater: (1658 + 20*18 - 45*7)/426 = 4.0
Jimmy: (1844 + 20*20 - 45*12)/441 = 3.86
Mahomes: (2140 + 20*37 - 45*13)/658 = 3.49
Mac Jones: (2027 + 20*22 - 45*13)/521 = 3.61
Tier 3 guys:
Tannehill: (1958 + 20*21-45*14)/531 = 3.29
Darnold: (1151 + 20*9 - 45*13)/406 = 1.84

Cousins (litmus test): (2415 + 20*33 - 45*7)/561 = 4.9 Ugh. Still too high. I admit he had fantastic numbers, but he's not the best QB, and wasn't last year. You could certainly make the argument that he was somewhere in tier one with those numbers, but if he was, it's at the bottom.

As far as ADJUSTED AIR YARDS PER ATTEMPT, this stat, even the very first version of it, probably works really, really well. But as a QB rating? Not quite. There is something missing.

Be careful adjusting that formula too much. You may end up creating a list that proves your bias more than it proves actual facts.

There are reasons for why the statisticians chose those coefficients. They are related to a how much equivalent yards turnovers or touchdowns bring. And while I get that, if we're looking at a RATING instead of adjusted yards, I feel like the most obvious thing is to count touchdowns and interceptions equally. After all, how often do we talk about TD to INT ratio? And that leaves only the question of how much to value the QB's contribution to yards in comparison to touchdowns and interceptions. I don't feel like there's much need to include completion percentage as its own category, however, because it's essentially already counted, since completed air yards = completions*completed air yards per completion. Yeah, the units cancel, but you can't get CAY without that C there.

If someone can make a compelling argument why interceptions are more or less important than touchdowns, and to what degree, I'm all for it. Same with completed air yards. I do stand by CAY though, because those are the exact yards that are due to the quarterback, which is what we need to consider for rating QBs.

And we've got to have some coefficients on TDs and INTs, otherwise, CAY ends up weighing FAR more than those two, which makes little sense.

But I'll be researching the value of TD passes and cost of INTs for the next few days. I really hope to be able to find a better metric than what's out there. Total QBR is a mystery, and it seems a bit subjective, and NFL passer rating doesn't distinguish between QB and WR contributions at all.

All of this time, energy, and effort going into finding a "quantifiable metric" to prove that Jimmy is a bad QB just so you can convince a bunch of anonymous people in a fan forum that you're "right". No ego problems there right? Must be nice to have so much free time to waste.

Originally posted by 49ers81:
All of this time, energy, and effort going into finding a "quantifiable metric" to prove that Jimmy is a bad QB just so you can convince a bunch of anonymous people in a fan forum that you're "right". No ego problems there right? Must be nice to have so much free time to waste.

It's insane

Originally posted by dhp318:
Looking forward to the April Fools Garoppolo trade report

I feel like the world is onto these by now. But maybe this would be the perfect day to actually do a trade so as to maximize trolling effect.

Originally posted by Aj_hwd954:

Originally posted by 49ers81:
All of this time, energy, and effort going into finding a "quantifiable metric" to prove that Jimmy is a bad QB just so you can convince a bunch of anonymous people in a fan forum that you're "right". No ego problems there right? Must be nice to have so much free time to waste.

It's insane

Someone taking time to do something they enjoy…how insane! 🙄