Solomon Thomas, DT

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by crusher49er:
Hopefully they allow him to play at 285lbs instead of 270lbs this year. I think that would make him much more effective especially when kicked inside.

Exactly. Move him inside permanently on every down.

Do what the Colts did with Margus Hunt (6-8) and slide Buckner over to nose tackle.

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2018/12/21/margus-hunts-indianapolis-colts-al-woods-denico-autry/2366120002/

Thomas is already at 280+. Change his off season training back to being inside every down like in college (normal), build up his base (weight training), increase his weight 5-10 pounds, refine his technique, make him compete...then see what happens.

Good point, agreed.

Would Buckner lose effectiveness moving over to nose? I don't know what the nose's responsibilities are in this scheme. Buckner is the heavier of the two at 300 pounds though.

Originally posted by swaccmac1:
bottom line ... Thomas was a miss at number three overall. Doesn't mean he isn't and wont end up being a solid football player and have a decent career. The number 3 overall pick is suppose to be a dynamic roster altering player. Thomas is just not that type of player and in my opinion, never will be.

I happens sometimes, the league is about 6 for 18 over the last 24 years at that spot. So about one third were either busts or just solid players. He is young enough that I would still give him next year before I make a final call on his ceiling, but getting merely a solid player at 3 happens. It sucks, but it isn't as heartbreaking as missing on number one over all.

Originally posted by GMniner805:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Exactly. Move him inside permanently on every down.

Do what the Colts did with Margus Hunt (6-8) and slide Buckner over to nose tackle.

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2018/12/21/margus-hunts-indianapolis-colts-al-woods-denico-autry/2366120002/

Thomas is already at 280+. Change his off season training back to being inside every down like in college (normal), build up his base (weight training), increase his weight 5-10 pounds, refine his technique, make him compete...then see what happens.

I'd rather see Solly add some pounds and eat up double teams at Nose, more one on one match ups for Buck.

If I am betting man, what happens with this years pick is going to have a whole hell of a lot to do with where Solly plays.

Originally posted by PhillyNiner:

Originally posted by swaccmac1:
bottom line ... Thomas was a miss at number three overall. Doesn't mean he isn't and wont end up being a solid football player and have a decent career. The number 3 overall pick is suppose to be a dynamic roster altering player. Thomas is just not that type of player and in my opinion, never will be.

I happens sometimes, the league is about 6 for 18 over the last 24 years at that spot. So about one third were either busts or just solid players. He is young enough that I would still give him next year before I make a final call on his ceiling, but getting merely a solid player at 3 happens. It sucks, but it isn't as heartbreaking as missing on number one over all.

Yeah, I've noticed that Edge guys like Franchise QB's are hit and miss, mostly miss. That's why I am weary of Bosa and Allen being drafted that high up.

Originally posted by GMniner805:

I'd rather see Solly add some pounds and eat up double teams at Nose, more one on one match ups for Buck.

Yeah, it doesn't really matter either way. 3T or NT...subtle differences in a 1 gap attack defense as the article highlights but it's all based on how the OL decides to play you on any particular play...really, more of the play call than anything unless there is a player so dominant, you need to focus on doubling. If Buckner is at BE, 1T, or 3T, the blocking will shift towards his dominance.

This is why you often saw Thomas get doubled inside while leaving Buckner 1on1. It's the play call that dictates mostly.

Originally posted by Niner4ever:

Good point, agreed.

Would Buckner lose effectiveness moving over to nose? I don't know what the nose's responsibilities are in this scheme. Buckner is the heavier of the two at 300 pounds though.

Buckner is actually 320. Crazy.

Good question. Oscar over at BetterRivals noted that, per PFF, there was no drop off in production in Buckner's play at NT but an obvious increase in production from Thomas inside (duh). These snaps included run and passing downs.

They even moved AA to NT late in the season on several snaps.

I have no doubt, wherever you move Buckner, aside from LEO, he's going to have plenty of success.

Originally posted by Memphis9er:
He spends entirely too much time watching the play instead of making the play. I cut him slack due to his personal tragedy, but he is a professional, and a grown man. At some point you have to man up and earn your keep. Plenty of NFL players have lost loved ones to tragic circumstances and have not only kept their level of play up, but used the loss as inspiration to reach greater heights. Hopefully hes not some emotional weakling who cannot cope with what life throws at him.

I think the coaches noticed that a lot of the players were watching and not reacting to plays. The last few games they were told to go out and attack and the results were better. Some of that may have been because of the constant shuffling in the line and defensive backfield. Too many guys were unsure of where they should be and what their assignment was. Some of that was coaching but a lot was turmoil.

Originally posted by PhillyNiner:

Originally posted by swaccmac1:
bottom line ... Thomas was a miss at number three overall. Doesn't mean he isn't and wont end up being a solid football player and have a decent career. The number 3 overall pick is suppose to be a dynamic roster altering player. Thomas is just not that type of player and in my opinion, never will be.

I happens sometimes, the league is about 6 for 18 over the last 24 years at that spot. So about one third were either busts or just solid players. He is young enough that I would still give him next year before I make a final call on his ceiling, but getting merely a solid player at 3 happens. It sucks, but it isn't as heartbreaking as missing on number one over all.

good point made... but what I was trying to get across is that when you have the number three pick which started out as the number 2, you're hoping like hell that he will be a franchise changer. So when you miss it just sucks balls. I like Solly and there is no need for crying over spilled milk ..... just wish he was kick a$$ instead of just a good player

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by GMniner805:
I'd rather see Solly add some pounds and eat up double teams at Nose, more one on one match ups for Buck.

Yeah, it doesn't really matter either way. 3T or NT...subtle differences in a 1 gap attack defense as the article highlights but it's all based on how the OL decides to play you on any particular play...really, more of the play call than anything unless there is a player so dominant, you need to focus on doubling. If Buckner is at BE, 1T, or 3T, the blocking will shift towards his dominance.

This is why you often saw Thomas get doubled inside while leaving Buckner 1on1. It's the play call that dictates mostly.

Originally posted by Niner4ever:
Good point, agreed.

Would Buckner lose effectiveness moving over to nose? I don't know what the nose's responsibilities are in this scheme. Buckner is the heavier of the two at 300 pounds though.

Buckner is actually 320. Crazy.

Good question. Oscar over at BetterRivals noted that, per PFF, there was no drop off in production in Buckner's play at NT but an obvious increase in production from Thomas inside (duh). These snaps included run and passing downs.

They even moved AA to NT late in the season on several snaps.

I have no doubt, wherever you move Buckner, aside from LEO, he's going to have plenty of success.

Yeah, totally agree about your first response in that the there are multiple factors that dictate who gets double teamed along the line. One thing is for sure though and it will never change. If the player is beast he will always get doubled no matter where he plays on the line lol.

Buckner at 320 LBS and moving like that is amazing. I was looking at his profile and they make him seem more sexy lol. One thing that I've thought that would benefit this team and Thomas immensely is for them to give him Armstead's position. I think Armstead should be moved, to me, that ship has sailed. Anyhow Thomas can play Armstead's Edge spot on first down and then be moved inside on 2nd and 3rd down. That would guarantee most or a great amount of snaps inside in the 3T while as you say moving Buckner to the nose.

I found this article about NFL drafting. The stats here are based on metrics from Pro Football Reference. It shows how hard it is to draft successfully. These were based on 7 rounds.
16.7% never played for the team that drafted them
37% were considered useless
15.3% were considered poor
10.5% were average
12.3% were considered good
6.9% were great
Only 1% were considered legendary.
That breaks down to about 20% being good players and only 30% above average. So based on 7 picks per team it works out to 1 or 2 players per dradt who actually end up being major contributors. The rest are backups, practice guys or busts. I know we get worked up when our draft picks don't work out, especially the first rounders, but it happens to all teams. We just see it more here because that's who we follow.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I found this article about NFL drafting. The stats here are based on metrics from Pro Football Reference. It shows how hard it is to draft successfully. These were based on 7 rounds.
16.7% never played for the team that drafted them
37% were considered useless
15.3% were considered poor
10.5% were average
12.3% were considered good
6.9% were great
Only 1% were considered legendary.
That breaks down to about 20% being good players and only 30% above average. So based on 7 picks per team it works out to 1 or 2 players per dradt who actually end up being major contributors. The rest are backups, practice guys or busts. I know we get worked up when our draft picks don't work out, especially the first rounders, but it happens to all teams. We just see it more here because that's who we follow.

Good stuff!

That's why if I were a GM I would be looking to trade out of the first round every year and accumulate as many picks as possible lol.

Originally posted by Niner4ever:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I found this article about NFL drafting. The stats here are based on metrics from Pro Football Reference. It shows how hard it is to draft successfully. These were based on 7 rounds.
16.7% never played for the team that drafted them
37% were considered useless
15.3% were considered poor
10.5% were average
12.3% were considered good
6.9% were great
Only 1% were considered legendary.
That breaks down to about 20% being good players and only 30% above average. So based on 7 picks per team it works out to 1 or 2 players per dradt who actually end up being major contributors. The rest are backups, practice guys or busts. I know we get worked up when our draft picks don't work out, especially the first rounders, but it happens to all teams. We just see it more here because that's who we follow.

Good stuff!

That's why if I were a GM I would be looking to trade out of the first round every year and accumulate as many picks as possible lol.

Do you want to see the success rate by round?

That may change your opinion again lol.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Niner4ever:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I found this article about NFL drafting. The stats here are based on metrics from Pro Football Reference. It shows how hard it is to draft successfully. These were based on 7 rounds.
16.7% never played for the team that drafted them
37% were considered useless
15.3% were considered poor
10.5% were average
12.3% were considered good
6.9% were great
Only 1% were considered legendary.
That breaks down to about 20% being good players and only 30% above average. So based on 7 picks per team it works out to 1 or 2 players per dradt who actually end up being major contributors. The rest are backups, practice guys or busts. I know we get worked up when our draft picks don't work out, especially the first rounders, but it happens to all teams. We just see it more here because that's who we follow.

Good stuff!

That's why if I were a GM I would be looking to trade out of the first round every year and accumulate as many picks as possible lol.

Do you want to see the success rate by round?

That may change your opinion again lol.

Sure, why not.

I would imagine that picking up 2- 3 picks in rounds 2- 7 would help a team more than rolling the dice on one first rounder. There are a lot of quality football players that improve teams every year rounds 2- 7 I believe, especially if a team can grab an extra two or three guys.

Originally posted by Niner4ever:

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Niner4ever:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I found this article about NFL drafting. The stats here are based on metrics from Pro Football Reference. It shows how hard it is to draft successfully. These were based on 7 rounds.
16.7% never played for the team that drafted them
37% were considered useless
15.3% were considered poor
10.5% were average
12.3% were considered good
6.9% were great
Only 1% were considered legendary.
That breaks down to about 20% being good players and only 30% above average. So based on 7 picks per team it works out to 1 or 2 players per dradt who actually end up being major contributors. The rest are backups, practice guys or busts. I know we get worked up when our draft picks don't work out, especially the first rounders, but it happens to all teams. We just see it more here because that's who we follow.

Good stuff!

That's why if I were a GM I would be looking to trade out of the first round every year and accumulate as many picks as possible lol.

Do you want to see the success rate by round?

That may change your opinion again lol.

Sure, why not.

I would imagine that picking up 2- 3 picks in rounds 2- 7 would help a team more than rolling the dice on one first rounder. There are a lot of quality football players that improve teams every year rounds 2- 7 I believe, especially if a team can grab an extra two or three guys.

Damnit I don't actually have those numbers lol. I do know we've seen the QB success rate posted around here before and it's most certainly very first round heavy.

Originally posted by Niner4ever:

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Niner4ever:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I found this article about NFL drafting. The stats here are based on metrics from Pro Football Reference. It shows how hard it is to draft successfully. These were based on 7 rounds.
16.7% never played for the team that drafted them
37% were considered useless
15.3% were considered poor
10.5% were average
12.3% were considered good
6.9% were great
Only 1% were considered legendary.
That breaks down to about 20% being good players and only 30% above average. So based on 7 picks per team it works out to 1 or 2 players per dradt who actually end up being major contributors. The rest are backups, practice guys or busts. I know we get worked up when our draft picks don't work out, especially the first rounders, but it happens to all teams. We just see it more here because that's who we follow.

Good stuff!

That's why if I were a GM I would be looking to trade out of the first round every year and accumulate as many picks as possible lol.

Do you want to see the success rate by round?

That may change your opinion again lol.

Sure, why not.

I would imagine that picking up 2- 3 picks in rounds 2- 7 would help a team more than rolling the dice on one first rounder. There are a lot of quality football players that improve teams every year rounds 2- 7 I believe, especially if a team can grab an extra two or three guys.

The success rate is obviously higher in the first and goes down with each round, although 1 and 2 are close. In the end it really doesn't make much difference if you whiff on the 1st but get a pro bowler in the 5th. In the end if you end up with more than 2 or 3 guys from each draft that are real contributors then you have been successful. Top teams drafting at the end of each round are still trying to get 2 or 3 guys every year whether to replace free agents that leave or guys that retire. The NFL is always in motion. The quest for the "franchise QB" is the biggest joke of all. The failure rate is really high with most of them being just average. Real franchise QB's are very rare. The success rate is somewhat skewed for QB's since you only have 3 on each team and most are picked in the early rounds.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Niner4ever:

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Niner4ever:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I found this article about NFL drafting. The stats here are based on metrics from Pro Football Reference. It shows how hard it is to draft successfully. These were based on 7 rounds.
16.7% never played for the team that drafted them
37% were considered useless
15.3% were considered poor
10.5% were average
12.3% were considered good
6.9% were great
Only 1% were considered legendary.
That breaks down to about 20% being good players and only 30% above average. So based on 7 picks per team it works out to 1 or 2 players per dradt who actually end up being major contributors. The rest are backups, practice guys or busts. I know we get worked up when our draft picks don't work out, especially the first rounders, but it happens to all teams. We just see it more here because that's who we follow.

Good stuff!

That's why if I were a GM I would be looking to trade out of the first round every year and accumulate as many picks as possible lol.

Do you want to see the success rate by round?

That may change your opinion again lol.

Sure, why not.

I would imagine that picking up 2- 3 picks in rounds 2- 7 would help a team more than rolling the dice on one first rounder. There are a lot of quality football players that improve teams every year rounds 2- 7 I believe, especially if a team can grab an extra two or three guys.

Damnit I don't actually have those numbers lol. I do know we've seen the QB success rate posted around here before and it's most certainly very first round heavy.

No worries lol.