Let's logic this out..
Top 10 pick locks are:
1. Carter
2. Hunter
3. Ward
4. Sanders
5. Graham
Likely top 10 picks:
6. Will Johnson
7. McMillan
8. Campbell
BPA after those guys (combine can change things obv):
* Jeanty
* Warren
* Starks
Then is the next tier of guys which imo is extremely crowded and hard to grade and differentiate between these guys. Guy drafted at #22 prob has every bit a chance to be a star as the guy at #14-18 That's 13 players listed that I wouldn't mind taking at all... just not at #11 when Jeanty, Warren, and Starks are likely to be sitting there.
* Mykel Williams
* Pearce Jr.
* Mike Green
* Jalon Walker
* Walter Nolen
* Burden III
* Egbuka
* Simmons
* Banks
* Loveland
* Membou
* Harmon
* Stewart
So my logic is let's look at some teams just below us if we traded down and see the risk of missing out on a guy we'd want assuming they are in the list of those 13 guys above.
#12. Dallas - Strong possibility Dallas they take Jeanty or Burden III, both guys we probably would not take anyways.
#13. Miami - They could go in a lot of directions and take Starks or any of the 13 guys in the next tier below as they need OL/DL as well. Seen some mocks having them take Starks which makes sense.
#14. Indianapolis - So many mocks have the Colts taking Warren if he is there. I'll assume he doesn't last beyond this pick.
#15. Atlanta - Would take Starks or any of the 13 in the tier above
#16. Arizona - Would take Starks or any of the 13 in the tier above
#17. Cincinnati - Would take Starks or any of the 13 in the tier above
#18. Seattle - Would take Starks or any of the 13 in Tier above
So we can project Dallas and Indy taking Jeanty/Burden and Warren off the board. If Miami takes Starks, then by pick #15 ALL of the 13 guys listed together would be available.
Trade down with Atlanta to #15: Would receive their 3rd rounder at #79 and still have first choice of the 13.
Trade down with Arizona to #16: Would receive their 3rd rounder at #80 and their 4th rounder at #112 and we would have to give back a 7th. OR We could ask for their 2nd rounder at #48 and we would have to give our #99 and #111.
Trade down with Cincinnati to #17: Get their 2nd rounder at #49 and give back #99 and a 7th.
Trade down with Seattle to #18: Would get their 2nd rounder at #50 and we would give back a 4th round comp pick. Our picks would be #18, #43, #50, #75, #99, #11
Miami, Atlanta, Cincinnati, and Seattle (would think long and hard before I make a trade with them giving them Starks) need a S and could realistically target Starks at #11 if the 49ers don't want to go in that direction. If that was the case, the board would fall similar to:
#11 - Starks (trade w/ 49ers)
#12 - Dallas - Jeanty/Burden III
#13 - Miami - One of the 13 guys
#14 - Warren (if Indy isn't the one trading up to #11 - we could tell them hey we're taking Warren if you don't trade with us)
#15 - 49ers? (2nd choice of the 13 guys)
#16 - 49ers? (3rd choice of the 13 guys)
#17 - 49ers? (4th choice of the 13 guys)
#18 - 49ers? (5th choice of the 13 guys)
Even at #18 only 4 of those 13 guys are gone - hell what if Starks was still there at 15/16/17/18 + we get the extra picks. All of the options above net us additional valuable extra draft capital to replenish talent on our DL/OL in the 2nd/3rd rounds and we easily still get one of the guys we want at 15, 16, 17, 18 which all have similar grades.
Let's look at Mike Green...let's assume he's our first choice of the 13 guys DAL, MIA, and IND are def not taking Green when Warren/Starks are there and DAL going RB/WR. So if we trade down with ATL to #15 he is highly likely to still be there and we grab the extra 3rd at #79. That pick at #79 could net us Darius Alexander DL or a top G/S/EDGE/LB with little risk in that trade down to #15.
I like the idea of trading down to #17 and getting Cinci's 2nd rounder at #49. Green could still be there at #17 and if he isn't the board seems to like Nolen and if he is gone then one of Pearce Jr/Mykel Williams/Derrick Harmon/Membou/Simmons/Stewart/Jalen Walker will be there. Who's going to be upset landing any one of those guys + getting the extra pick in the 2nd. What if one of these 13 guys (say Membou) falls to late 20s now we have the ammo to trade back up and grab another one of those top guys if we want and still have a 2nd round pick #49 from the trade down.
Thinking out loud here. Sorry for the long-winded post, but really think a small trade down 4-6 spots can be VERY beneficial for the 49ers IF we have no desire to take a blue chip TE (Warren) or S (Starks) in the 1st round. All of this is subject to combine performances.
[ Edited by Ezekiel38 on Feb 1, 2025 at 9:27 PM ]