Originally posted by GoldBrick:
The 49ers' Draft hinges almost entirely on a handful of key personnel decisions this offseason. Magic 8-ball says:
# 1) Extend Kittle. He deserves to be the richest TE in football, and his contract will look like a bargain in a few years. Extend Williams and Mostert as well.
# 2) Cut McKinnon. Don't throw good money after bad money. Goodwin too. Those moves alone free up over $8M next year ($13.5M minus dead money).
# 3) Cut Coleman. He's a good back, but Shanahan does not need to pay a rotational guy $5M per year when he's getting 5+ yards/carry out of UDFAs. Coleman's deal can (and should) be voided this offseason with no cap hit. Bring him back on a team-friendly multiyear deal if he's interested.
# 4) If Lynch slaps a second-round tender on Brieda and Borne, I don't think another team will bite on either. Good value retaining both.
# 5) I'd love to keep Sanders in the building on a team-friendly multiyear deal assuming he wants to stay in SF and chase another ring or two before he hangs them up. If he wants to chase $10M/year instead, let him walk.
# 6) Dee Ford vs. AA. Can't afford to keep them both. Ford's contract is front-loaded and incentive rich, meaning the $87M sticker price was largely an illusion. He has struggled to stay healthy, and the niners would only accrue $6.4M in dead cap if they cut him. Problem is, it's clear how much his presence is needed outside to force favorable matchups for Bosa, Buckner and the others. AA, meanwhile, is about to get PAID. He's only 26. He's outstanding vs run and pass. Someone will pay this dude like he's Aaron Donald. So my guess is we keep the team-friendly Dee Ford deal in the hope he's healthier next season.
# 7) Resign Ward and extend Tartt, neither of whom should break the bank.
Draft Day needs would then look something like:
1) Offensive line: Is our future LT on the roster? Is Richburg's injury history concerning? Is Person's neck problem chronic? Do Bruskill, Skule, or Garland project as future starters? Shon Coleman?
2) Safety: Harris is a thumper, but he's a clear a liability in coverage. Ward and Tartt have concerning injury histories. What should we expect from Moore?
3) TE: I appreciate Dwelley's versatility, and I think that earns him a spot on the 53 next year, but imagine the mismatches Shanahan could exploit with a stud TE opposite Kittle.
4) LB: Greenlaw was a gem. We could use a couple more unless you're comfortable potentially starting Al-Shaair or Nzeocha.
5) RB: If McKinnon and Coleman both leave, we will need another horse in the stable.
6) WR: Will Sanders be back? What should we expect from Hurd and Taylor coming off IR?
I agree with all except 6. I think we somehow keep AA, though I won't be surprised if he is gone. Someone will definitely overpay. We'd be better off slapping the franchise tag on and trading him then just letting him walk. I can see a team giving up a 2nd for AA (higher than the 3rd round max comp we'd get for him).
But again, I think we keep AA and the defense remains in tact until 2021, then the bubble bursts.
I wanted to draft someone for most of our position groups.
1. Speedy edge rusher
2. Deep threat receiver that has the work ethic to become more than a one trick pony
3. Guard/center (what will become of Richburg?)
4. Linebacker (to push anyone not named Alexander, Warner, or Greenlaw potentially off the roster)
5. safety (capable of backing up at both spots)
6. Corner (to compete with Mosely)
7. TE (to play either TE and/or back up at FB. More mismatches created).
8. RB (Coleman replacement)
9. T/G (I think Brunskill should be able to compete for a starting spot. If he makes it, we are going to need to start developing another versatile guy)
10. More of a 3-4 OLB rusher. Still can rush in the wide 9 and has the ability to drop into coverage. I'm thinking one more is needed because I do not expect Ronald Blair to be ready at the start of the season if he is extended.
With a couple of trade downs and really working the boards better in terms of value, I think we can check all these boxes
kinda reminds me of another hawkeye in Desmond King.
