MadDog49er 2017 NFL Draft Best Board Top 50 Draft Day Edition | Page 3

MadDog49er · 2017-04-27T02:20:59-07:00

It is draft day, and let's have some fun. I will be on the board for much of the draft the next three days throwing in my humble opinion about each selection. Very excited about the potential for the team to rebuild this roster. Here is my final best board, and some notes to go with it. First, I have removed two players completely off my top 50 board. Although the talent and film is sparkling for both Reuben Foster and Gareon Conley, you will not see them listed. Both would be top 10 on my board. Conley's circumstances are rare in being so close to the draft. It will be nearly impossible for teams to get all the information and make a judgment on his guilt or innocence. As for Foster, he simply doesn't get it. He has a 7-year child, but gets kicked out of the combine for yelling at a hospital employee (nobody else seemed to throw a tantrum at the hospital). has a diluted urine sample, is self-admittedly white-board challenged, and scored a low Wonderlic score. Middle linebackers are usually the team captain on defense. Not for me. I first moved him to OLB, then simply off it. Too many other good players to have than wasting energy on this guy who is clearly clueless. A best board for me doesn't automatically mean the surefire on the clock draft choice. Teams sometimes avoid a duplicate pick at the same position, or have a slim enough difference in grade between players that sometimes one leapfrogs over the rest. Some positions are simply more valuable than others. My best board is simply a projection of who I see has the greatest likelihood of success in the NFL. The top tier for me is from 1-6. I don't see any holes, or any question marks, in any of these top prospects. No deficiencies. Hooker and Davis are my best players who have a question mark attached (Can Hooker clean up his tackling and is he experienced enough; is Davis fully healed, and what would he post for a 40 time...we don't know). As chronicled many times before, my lower than expected score on Fournette is due to a couple issues: I don't believe he will be a three down back in the NFL and that cuts out a LOT of snaps; and that the huge gaping holes he saw at LSU are not going to exist in the NFL, and he is going to have to improve lateral cuts to be a top back. I could spend a day on each prospect, but that would take us into June, and that is no good. I welcome all questions, differences of opinion and more. As always, the draft is for fun (we are not solving the Israeli-Palestinian crisis here) and witchcraft (nobody truly knows what they are doing, and those who think they do are fooling themselves). Strap on the seatbelts, and let's roll. The numbers indicate the round graded (I have 20 players graded as first rounders) and positional ranking. 2017 NFL Draft Best Board Pick Player School Position Grade Position Rank 1 Myles Garrett Texas A&M Edge 1 1 2 Solomon Thomas Stanford Edge 1 2 3 Forrest Lamp Western Kentucky G 1 1 4 Haason Reddick Temple ILB/OLB 1 1 5 Christian McCaffrey Stanford RB 1 1 6 Jamal Adams LSU SS 1 1 7 Malik Hooker Ohio State FS 1 1 8 Corey Davis Western Michigan WR 1 1 9 Marshon Lattimore Ohio State CB 1 1 10 Patrick Mahomes Texas Tech QB 1 1 11 Mitchell Trubisky North Carolina QB 1 2 12 Derek Barnett Tennessee Edge 1 3 13 OJ Howard Alabama TE 1 1 14 Zach Cunningham Vanderbilt ILB 1 2 15 Jonathan Allen Alabama DT 1 1 16 Mike Williams Clemson WR 1 2 17 Evan Engram Mississippi TE 1 2 18 TJ Watt Wisconsin Edge 1 4 19 Kevin King Washington CB 1 2 20 John Ross Washington WR 1 3 21 Zay Jones East Carolina WR 2 4 22 Cooper Kupp Eastern Washington WR 2 5 23 Blair Brown Ohio ILB 2 3 24 Tarell Basham Ohio Edge 2 5 25 Obi Melifonwu Connecticut SS 2 2 26 TreDavious White LSU CB 2 3 27 Jordan Willis Kansas St Edge 2 6 28 Ryan Ramczyk Wisconsin OT 2 1 29 Chidobe Awuzie Colorado CB 2 4 30 Ahkello Witherspoon Colorado CB 2 5 31 Marcus Maye Florida FS 2 2 32 Alvin Kamara Tennessee RB 2 2 33 Kareem Hunt Toledo RB 2 3 34 Leonard Fournette LSU RB 2 4 35 Cam Robinson Alabama G 2 2 36 Carl Lawson Auburn Edge 2 7 37 Sidney Jones Washington CB 2 6 38 Budda Baker Washington SS 2 3 39 Garrett Bolles Utah OT 2 2 40 Taylor Moton Western Michigan OT 2 3 41 Dion Dawkins Temple G 2 3 42 Malik McDowell Michigan St DT 2 2 43 Chris Wormley Michigan DT 2 3 44 Jarrad Davis Florida ILB 2 4 45 DeShaun Watson Clemson QB 2 3 46 Marcus Williams Utah FS 2 3 47 Takkarist McKinley UCLA Edge 2 8 48 Joe Mixon Oklahoma RB 2 5 49 Dalvin Tomlinson Alabama DT 2 4 50 Charles Harris Missouri Edge 2 9

Apr 27, 2017 at 7:14 AM

#31

adrianlesnar
Veteran
Posts: 6,466

Interesting to see that you're super high on Basham, but not on most of the other edge rushers thought to go in the late first early second.

As for grading and big boards in general, if you were a GM, do you individually grade each player, and then apply a multiplier to positional value and/or need value, and then arrange them in order of high to low?

Apr 27, 2017 at 7:19 AM

#32

Joecool
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Posts: 70,984

Really liking the player rank within his position, MD.

Apr 27, 2017 at 7:24 AM

#33

All22
Veteran
Posts: 2,881

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by All22:
He's only second because after years of dominance people decided to nitpick Jonathan Allen and Fournette. Without the NC game Thomas wouldn't even be in the first round. Hell, if you check the mocks from just a couple months ago the guy couldn't even sniff #2 or even the top 10.

http://walterfootball.com/draft2017overreaction.php
https://www.profootballfocus.com/draft-jonathan-allen-myles-garrett-first-2017-mock-draft/

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/mock-drafts/daniel-jeremiah/330601 -- #17 in this one

Guys climb up draft boards all the time. It's not like Thomas is just a combine freak who gets pushed up regardless of tape. The tape is there, the leadership, the demeanor and work ethic are all there.

Actually that's exactly what happened. He was a combine freak with great intangibles and virtually everyone else either had a character issue (Mixon, Foster, Conley, Peppers, Mcdowell etc) or an injury (Hooker, Fournette, Lattimore, Davis, McCaffery, Allen).

Allen is being pushed down due to concerns about his shoulders. Fournette is a RB, a position simply not getting the same pull as far as value it did even a decade ago.

I get that there may be some long term issues with Allen's shoulders but he's been near the top of everyone's board for two years.

RB isn't actually less important than it was a decade ago, people are just unknowingly feeding the QB bubble. QB's are overvalued in the draft and FA, RB's are undervalued.

Carson Wentz was a 2nd/3rd round pick...how did that turn out?

???? He played like a 2nd or 3rd rounder... 16/14 TD/INT and 79QB rating is on par with Kaep's worst year and nowhere near Kaep's best. Wentz looked good compared to Goff but compared to guys actually worth the 1st or 2nd pick? Luck, Newton, RG3 (first year anyway) even Winston and Mariota... no comparison.

[ Edited by All22 on Apr 27, 2017 at 7:26 AM ]

Apr 27, 2017 at 7:25 AM

#34

GoldenJoe
Veteran
Posts: 4,177

Great job as always MD. You have a 1 next to Takk as his draft grade but you have him at 8th at his position and 47th overall. Just wondering if this was an oversight? Where do you think Thomas projects best in this defense? How does he compare to Aaron Donald?

Apr 27, 2017 at 7:31 AM

#35

GoldenJoe
Veteran
Posts: 4,177

Originally posted by All22:
???? He played like a 2nd or 3rd rounder... 16/14 TD/INT and 79QB rating is on par with Kaep's worst year and nowhere near Kaep's best. Wentz looked good compared to Goff but compared to guys actually worth the 1st or 2nd pick? Luck, Newton, RG3 (first year anyway) even Winston and Mariota... no comparison.

He played very similarly to Flacco in his rookie year, actually played quite a bit better. Division II QB, learning curve is steeper. Pretty good for the massive jump in competition. Got to compare apples to apples.

Apr 27, 2017 at 7:39 AM

#36

miked1978
Veteran
Posts: 12,546

IMO you should have left Conley on your board but I get why you took him off.

You mentioned a few weeks ago you wore torn with Myles Garrett. What has kept him #1 on your board?

Apr 27, 2017 at 7:56 AM

#37

JoseCortez
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Posts: 13,751

You take off Foster but not mixon?

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:05 AM

#38

gored49
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Posts: 949

This isn't a critique but I am curious about your thinking on this. What would Fournette have to do to surpass your ranking and what would he have to do to justify it? I'm curious if you just don't value a 2 down running back that much or you don't think he is as talented as most. If he is a rookie 1000 yard rusher would that mean you underestimated him or is that still in line with your ranking?

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:06 AM

#39

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by joey82:
MD

How many QBs do you think will be drafted in Round 1? Want to make a prediction on the teams that take QB?

Four QBs. I think Trubisky, then Mahomes, then Watson- all in top 12-15 and then Webb sneaking into the late first (maybe Texans at 27). Teams get players for the fifth year option if they are first rounders, so a team with an early second may move up a few slots just to secure him for the extra year.

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:08 AM

#40

fan49
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Posts: 6,293

Mahomes the best qb talent!!!! yes sir, I agree and so does gruden!

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:08 AM

#41

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Nice MD, do you think Reddick could be in play with our #2 overall selection and what position do you think he fits best at? Also if possible are you able to list your top 5 or 10 at each position? Thanks again for all your work and perspective!!

Best at each position coming later this afternoon. It is complete, just needs minor tweaking (Conley,etc.).

As for Reddick, he can play anywhere at LB. So smart, competitive. The best player at the Senior Bowl. That makes a huge statement. I have him pegged as an ILB. Is he worth the second overall? He is in the mix. I have him fourth best.

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:08 AM

#42

gold49digger
Veteran
Posts: 17,691

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by joey82:
MD

How many QBs do you think will be drafted in Round 1? Want to make a prediction on the teams that take QB?

Four QBs. I think Trubisky, then Mahomes, then Watson- all in top 12-15 and then Webb sneaking into the late first (maybe Texans at 27). Teams get players for the fifth year option if they are first rounders, so a team with an early second may move up a few slots just to secure him for the extra year.

damn for a weak draft class, thats a lot of qbs in the first. Is this the result of desperation or lack of depth after the top qbs?

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:09 AM

#43

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by Willisfn4life:
MD I like the board. Our board picks 1-9 would be almost virtually the same. Like you I love me some Lamp. Love the feet and effort, and I think he's the best plug and play day one starter in this draft. I posted a couple of days ago though that Ross would be my number one receiver in this draft followed by Corey Davis if it were not for his durability concerns which including those would push him down to about a second round grade for me. In first round receivers I look for number one receiver potential or electric playmaking ability. I love route running, release and yac in grading my receivers. Ross has a strong game and does a lot of things very well even without the straightline speed but the injury concerns are legit for me. I don't want to worry everytime he gets tackled.

Would Ross be higher on your board without his durability concerns or do you have him placed right about where you see his placement regardless of the injury concerns?

Ross' knees are a concern, and drops him down a bit. He would be second after Davis w/o knee issues.

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:10 AM

#44

fan49
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Posts: 6,293

and jordan willis your best 2nd round de/leo... agreed again!!!

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:11 AM

#45

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
Great work as always MD, I'm glad Charlton is off your board and Wormley has made it.

I have a question though, how many carries would you feel comfortable giving McCaffrey a game?

I think he is the prototypical new age passing game RB, but I still want to be able to give it to my number 1 guy 25-30 times if I have to. For me I wouldn't, and that would drop him out of my top tier.

Touches- 22
Carries- 17
Catches- 5

Just need to get another back to help out.