MadDog49er 2017 NFL Draft Best Board Top 50 Draft Day Edition | Page 4

MadDog49er · 2017-04-27T02:20:59-07:00

It is draft day, and let's have some fun. I will be on the board for much of the draft the next three days throwing in my humble opinion about each selection. Very excited about the potential for the team to rebuild this roster. Here is my final best board, and some notes to go with it. First, I have removed two players completely off my top 50 board. Although the talent and film is sparkling for both Reuben Foster and Gareon Conley, you will not see them listed. Both would be top 10 on my board. Conley's circumstances are rare in being so close to the draft. It will be nearly impossible for teams to get all the information and make a judgment on his guilt or innocence. As for Foster, he simply doesn't get it. He has a 7-year child, but gets kicked out of the combine for yelling at a hospital employee (nobody else seemed to throw a tantrum at the hospital). has a diluted urine sample, is self-admittedly white-board challenged, and scored a low Wonderlic score. Middle linebackers are usually the team captain on defense. Not for me. I first moved him to OLB, then simply off it. Too many other good players to have than wasting energy on this guy who is clearly clueless. A best board for me doesn't automatically mean the surefire on the clock draft choice. Teams sometimes avoid a duplicate pick at the same position, or have a slim enough difference in grade between players that sometimes one leapfrogs over the rest. Some positions are simply more valuable than others. My best board is simply a projection of who I see has the greatest likelihood of success in the NFL. The top tier for me is from 1-6. I don't see any holes, or any question marks, in any of these top prospects. No deficiencies. Hooker and Davis are my best players who have a question mark attached (Can Hooker clean up his tackling and is he experienced enough; is Davis fully healed, and what would he post for a 40 time...we don't know). As chronicled many times before, my lower than expected score on Fournette is due to a couple issues: I don't believe he will be a three down back in the NFL and that cuts out a LOT of snaps; and that the huge gaping holes he saw at LSU are not going to exist in the NFL, and he is going to have to improve lateral cuts to be a top back. I could spend a day on each prospect, but that would take us into June, and that is no good. I welcome all questions, differences of opinion and more. As always, the draft is for fun (we are not solving the Israeli-Palestinian crisis here) and witchcraft (nobody truly knows what they are doing, and those who think they do are fooling themselves). Strap on the seatbelts, and let's roll. The numbers indicate the round graded (I have 20 players graded as first rounders) and positional ranking. 2017 NFL Draft Best Board Pick Player School Position Grade Position Rank 1 Myles Garrett Texas A&M Edge 1 1 2 Solomon Thomas Stanford Edge 1 2 3 Forrest Lamp Western Kentucky G 1 1 4 Haason Reddick Temple ILB/OLB 1 1 5 Christian McCaffrey Stanford RB 1 1 6 Jamal Adams LSU SS 1 1 7 Malik Hooker Ohio State FS 1 1 8 Corey Davis Western Michigan WR 1 1 9 Marshon Lattimore Ohio State CB 1 1 10 Patrick Mahomes Texas Tech QB 1 1 11 Mitchell Trubisky North Carolina QB 1 2 12 Derek Barnett Tennessee Edge 1 3 13 OJ Howard Alabama TE 1 1 14 Zach Cunningham Vanderbilt ILB 1 2 15 Jonathan Allen Alabama DT 1 1 16 Mike Williams Clemson WR 1 2 17 Evan Engram Mississippi TE 1 2 18 TJ Watt Wisconsin Edge 1 4 19 Kevin King Washington CB 1 2 20 John Ross Washington WR 1 3 21 Zay Jones East Carolina WR 2 4 22 Cooper Kupp Eastern Washington WR 2 5 23 Blair Brown Ohio ILB 2 3 24 Tarell Basham Ohio Edge 2 5 25 Obi Melifonwu Connecticut SS 2 2 26 TreDavious White LSU CB 2 3 27 Jordan Willis Kansas St Edge 2 6 28 Ryan Ramczyk Wisconsin OT 2 1 29 Chidobe Awuzie Colorado CB 2 4 30 Ahkello Witherspoon Colorado CB 2 5 31 Marcus Maye Florida FS 2 2 32 Alvin Kamara Tennessee RB 2 2 33 Kareem Hunt Toledo RB 2 3 34 Leonard Fournette LSU RB 2 4 35 Cam Robinson Alabama G 2 2 36 Carl Lawson Auburn Edge 2 7 37 Sidney Jones Washington CB 2 6 38 Budda Baker Washington SS 2 3 39 Garrett Bolles Utah OT 2 2 40 Taylor Moton Western Michigan OT 2 3 41 Dion Dawkins Temple G 2 3 42 Malik McDowell Michigan St DT 2 2 43 Chris Wormley Michigan DT 2 3 44 Jarrad Davis Florida ILB 2 4 45 DeShaun Watson Clemson QB 2 3 46 Marcus Williams Utah FS 2 3 47 Takkarist McKinley UCLA Edge 2 8 48 Joe Mixon Oklahoma RB 2 5 49 Dalvin Tomlinson Alabama DT 2 4 50 Charles Harris Missouri Edge 2 9

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:13 AM

#46

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by 49erThrowback:
MD, since you eliminated some obvious characters from your board, among those currently on it, whom would you consider to have the greatest high-risk/high-reward future in the NFL.

Mixon. He has prototypical size/speed/hands and you don't have to be a leader at RB, just a guy.

Best player with inconsistent motor- McDowell. If he had the heart of a Barnett, he would be a top 5 pick.

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:14 AM

#47

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by jreff22:
What is the ceiling on Adams?

Lower than Hooker for sure. However, the floor is really high. Ready to plug and play now. I don't see the huge upside of Hooker, but Hooker's tackling needs some real work.

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:15 AM

#48

gold49digger
Veteran
Posts: 17,688

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by 49erThrowback:
MD, since you eliminated some obvious characters from your board, among those currently on it, whom would you consider to have the greatest high-risk/high-reward future in the NFL.

Mixon. He has prototypical size/speed/hands and you don't have to be a leader at RB, just a guy.

Best player with inconsistent motor- McDowell. If he had the heart of a Barnett, he would be a top 5 pick.

I've heard McDowells talent when fully motivated can be a candidate for all pros and dpoy year in and year out. But that motor has everyone scared of him. If he had the motor, he wouldve been in discussion for number 1 along with garrett.

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:15 AM

#49

Hysterikal
Veteran
Posts: 39,560

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by 49erThrowback:
MD, since you eliminated some obvious characters from your board, among those currently on it, whom would you consider to have the greatest high-risk/high-reward future in the NFL.

Mixon. He has prototypical size/speed/hands and you don't have to be a leader at RB, just a guy.

Best player with inconsistent motor- McDowell. If he had the heart of a Barnett, he would be a top 5 pick.

2 well 3 of my favorite players in the draft just mentioned. Love Barnett, Mixon and McDowell. The way McDowell was able to play NT and take on double and triple teams and beat double teams. If he is motivated he might be the JJ Watt to Garretts Von Miller.

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:18 AM

#50

49erBigMac
Veteran
Posts: 8,002

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Touches- 22
Carries- 17
Catches- 5

Just need to get another back to help out.

I agree on the carries, and think his catch number has no upper limit.

While it would be very exciting to see Shanahan get his hands on him, I think his stock has been inflated, call me old fashioned, but even if I don't need a bell cow, I at least want a 1st round RB to be able to do it if required.

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:19 AM

#51

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by adrianlesnar:
Interesting to see that you're super high on Basham, but not on most of the other edge rushers thought to go in the late first early second.

As for grading and big boards in general, if you were a GM, do you individually grade each player, and then apply a multiplier to positional value and/or need value, and then arrange them in order of high to low?

Guys like Lawson and Harris are somewhat single dimensional. You are getting a fierce pass rusher and not much else. Basham has a more well-rounded game, and is big enough to play the 4-3 DE.

I grade players by round, then three tiers in each round. So, my top 6 are Round 1, Tier 1; the next level from 7-12, tier 2; and the rest of first round graded players, tier three.

Hope that makes sense.

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:21 AM

#52

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by GoldenJoe:
Great job as always MD. You have a 1 next to Takk as his draft grade but you have him at 8th at his position and 47th overall. Just wondering if this was an oversight? Where do you think Thomas projects best in this defense? How does he compare to Aaron Donald?

It was an error. I have Takk as second round grade.

Donald was about 12-15 pounds heavier that Thomas, shorter and squattier but has similar traits. However, Donald is purely an inside guy, while Thomas should play inside and outside. As for interior pass rushing, similar for sure.

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:27 AM

#53

thl408
Moderator
Posts: 33,299

MD, who are some off the ball LBs that you like in rounds 4-5? I want the 49ers to have a good developmental prospect there to learn behind Bow, possibly fight for snaps with RRArmstrong. I'm looking for instincts more so than athletic ability. Perhaps there's a guy that has great awareness but posted meh combine numbers?

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:27 AM

#54

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by miked1978:
IMO you should have left Conley on your board but I get why you took him off.

You mentioned a few weeks ago you wore torn with Myles Garrett. What has kept him #1 on your board?

Another round of watching pre-Arkansas injury Garrett with post-Arkansas injury Garrett. Two very different players. Willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[ Edited by MadDog49er on Apr 27, 2017 at 9:29 AM ]

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:30 AM

#55

49erBigMac
Veteran
Posts: 8,002

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Guys like Lawson and Harris are somewhat single dimensional. You are getting a fierce pass rusher and not much else. Basham has a more well-rounded game, and is big enough to play the 4-3 DE.

I grade players by round, then three tiers in each round. So, my top 6 are Round 1, Tier 1; the next level from 7-12, tier 2; and the rest of first round graded players, tier three.

Hope that makes sense.

Makes sense to me, thanks. Are we overreacting or does this draft actually contain the most guys with 1st round grades you've ever seen?

I've heard people usually say there are about 20-25 true 1st round grades a year. This year it seems around 40

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:35 AM

#56

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by thl408:
MD, who are some off the ball LBs that you like in rounds 4-5? I want the 49ers to have a good developmental prospect there to learn behind Bow, possibly fight for snaps with RRArmstrong. I'm looking for instincts more so than athletic ability. Perhaps there's a guy that has great awareness but posted meh combine numbers?

My favorite is Samson Ekubam of Eastern Washington. If we could score him with a late fourth rounder on, I would be pumped. Super athletic, can rush inside and outside and also drop. Total stud!

My favorite no-namer is Blair Brown of Ohio at 23rd best overall. I think he goes 3rd or 4th round. So good! Love the kid. Total pro in his stance, preparation, instincts, and more. Watch the Tennessee tape to see a real treat.

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:36 AM

#57

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
Makes sense to me, thanks. Are we overreacting or does this draft actually contain the most guys with 1st round grades you've ever seen?

I've heard people usually say there are about 20-25 true 1st round grades a year. This year it seems around 40

Forty is too many. The difference for me this year is the amount of guys I grade second and third rounders. A whopping number.

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:38 AM

#58

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by gold49digger:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by 49erThrowback:
MD, since you eliminated some obvious characters from your board, among those currently on it, whom would you consider to have the greatest high-risk/high-reward future in the NFL.

Mixon. He has prototypical size/speed/hands and you don't have to be a leader at RB, just a guy.

Best player with inconsistent motor- McDowell. If he had the heart of a Barnett, he would be a top 5 pick.

I've heard McDowells talent when fully motivated can be a candidate for all pros and dpoy year in and year out. But that motor has everyone scared of him. If he had the motor, he wouldve been in discussion for number 1 along with garrett.

He is crazy good when he puts it all together. Reminds me a bit of Chris Jones of Miss. St. last year. He was a top 10 talent that I graded much lower because of consistency. Well, he put it all together last year and was a stud. McDowell could possibly do the same. I just got burned by Carl Davis the year before and am cautious about these guys. Some rise and some flame out.

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:42 AM

#59

49erBigMac
Veteran
Posts: 8,002

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Forty is too many. The difference for me this year is the amount of guys I grade second and third rounders. A whopping number.

Cool, good year to pick at the top then, hopefully we manage to get 2 guys with 1st round grades at #2 & 34, then our 3rd rd grades a 2nd and 4th grades a 3rd. We could knock this out of the park. Excited

Apr 27, 2017 at 9:45 AM

#60

highway49
Veteran
Posts: 4,075

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by GoldenJoe:
Great job as always MD. You have a 1 next to Takk as his draft grade but you have him at 8th at his position and 47th overall. Just wondering if this was an oversight? Where do you think Thomas projects best in this defense? How does he compare to Aaron Donald?

It was an error. I have Takk as second round grade.

Donald was about 12-15 pounds heavier that Thomas, shorter and squattier but has similar traits. However, Donald is purely an inside guy, while Thomas should play inside and outside. As for interior pass rushing, similar for sure.

To me that begs the question regarding Thomas ? What is Thomas's potential in the future to put on more weight and still be effective, i.e. Explosive, quick and disruptive. And if so how much weight could he carry ? He is young but is he projected to still grow and fill out and still keep his speed ? I don't see it as a deal breaker but it would be nice to have a feel for what some think about it. Tx

[ Edited by highway49 on Apr 27, 2017 at 9:47 AM ]