DeShone Kizer QB, Notre Dame

Originally posted by Jcool:

Originally posted by jcs:
You are trying to justify the #2 pick in the entire draft on a QB completing only 48.2% of his passes in the 4th quarter of games. I agree at 6-4 230 he looks the part but he's a hollow player when you actually look at his production and leadership.

2015: 4th quarter - 66.3% & 10.01 YPA. Also how exactly are you "looking" at his leadership? Is there a stat that tells me that? Are you watching all his media interviews? Are you talking to ND coaches and players?

Also had 7 TDs to 1 Interception and a 174.9 passer rating in 2015 in the 4th quarter. One of the reasons his overall completion percentage was down this year (in addition to having terrible receivers and playing a game in a hurricane) is that he was playing from behind and Notre Dame became one dimensional in the 4th quarter of games. Kizer played well in the first 3 quarters and his team still regularly trailed which isn't his fault.

I'm curious about the evidence behind the lack of leadership as well. It feels like these guys made up their minds about Kizer purely by looking at his completion percentage and are now trying to toss out other reasons for not liking him like leadership or the eye test.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

Originally posted by Jcool:

Originally posted by jcs:
You are trying to justify the #2 pick in the entire draft on a QB completing only 48.2% of his passes in the 4th quarter of games. I agree at 6-4 230 he looks the part but he's a hollow player when you actually look at his production and leadership.

2015: 4th quarter - 66.3% & 10.01 YPA. Also how exactly are you "looking" at his leadership? Is there a stat that tells me that? Are you watching all his media interviews? Are you talking to ND coaches and players?

Also had 7 TDs to 1 Interception and a 174.9 passer rating in 2015 in the 4th quarter. One of the reasons his overall completion percentage was down this year (in addition to having terrible receivers and playing a game in a hurricane) is that he was playing from behind and Notre Dame became one dimensional in the 4th quarter of games. Kizer played well in the first 3 quarters and his team still regularly trailed which isn't his fault.

I'm curious about the evidence behind the lack of leadership as well. It feels like these guys made up their minds about Kizer purely by looking at his completion percentage and are now trying to toss out other reasons for not liking him like leadership or the eye test.

Its not just the 4th quarter where ND became one dimensional. For some reason Kelly tried to run his system like he was Mike Leach. They never seemed to want to establish the run. They were always passing it. They didn't even break 2,000 yards as a team (1,960). His completion percentage this year does match what a saw watching the games. He would always start off really hot and then cool down as the game went on. But that whole team was a mess & was so bad it almost cost Kelly his job.

Originally posted by jcs:

Originally posted by Jcool:
2015: 4th quarter - 66.3% & 10.01 YPA. Also how exactly are you "looking" at his leadership? Is there a stat that tells me that? Are you watching all his media interviews? Are you talking to ND coaches and players?

lol 2015 stats to justify a 2nd overall picks selection.

Why would you only look at one year when evaluating a QB? His numbers fell off a little, not a lot, mostly because that team fell apart on defense. I mean they fired the D-Coordinator midway through the season. They were giving up 33 ppg during the first 5 games. In that time he had 14 TDs & 4 INTs + 6 rushing TDs.

Originally posted by Jcool:

Originally posted by jcs:

Originally posted by Jcool:
2015: 4th quarter - 66.3% & 10.01 YPA. Also how exactly are you "looking" at his leadership? Is there a stat that tells me that? Are you watching all his media interviews? Are you talking to ND coaches and players?

lol 2015 stats to justify a 2nd overall picks selection.

Why would you only look at one year when evaluating a QB? His numbers fell off a little, not a lot, mostly because that team fell apart on defense. I mean they fired the D-Coordinator midway through the season. They were giving up 33 ppg during the first 5 games. In that time he had 14 TDs & 4 INTs + 6 rushing TDs.

His numbers did not fall off at all this season. Taking out the hurricane game, his passer rating is higher than last year, his yards per game is higher, he's accounted for more TDs and has fewer interceptions, and his yards per attempt is 8.6 again (same as last season). The only stat that is down is completion % which is 60.6%, but in aggregate, his numbers are better despite having a worse supporting cast.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

Also had 7 TDs to 1 Interception and a 174.9 passer rating in 2015 in the 4th quarter. One of the reasons his overall completion percentage was down this year (in addition to having terrible receivers and playing a game in a hurricane) is that he was playing from behind and Notre Dame became one dimensional in the 4th quarter of games. Kizer played well in the first 3 quarters and his team still regularly trailed which isn't his fault.

I'm curious about the evidence behind the lack of leadership as well. It feels like these guys made up their minds about Kizer purely by looking at his completion percentage and are now trying to toss out other reasons for not liking him like leadership or the eye test.

Agreed. This happens every year though unfortunately, people are too quick to throw players out before all the bowl games are done and before the combine and pro days because of what little they have seen from games (and usually games from that season only) they watched and YouTube highlights.

In a month, we'll be hearing the experts and analysts talk about the more tape they watched on a prospect the more they liked or disliked them and said prospect is now climbing or falling on boards.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
His numbers did not fall off at all this season. Taking out the hurricane game, his passer rating is higher than last year, his yards per game is higher, he's accounted for more TDs and has fewer interceptions, and his yards per attempt is 8.6 again (same as last season). The only stat that is down is completion % which is 60.6%, but in aggregate, his numbers are better despite having a worse supporting cast.

This is something crucial that people continually miss when it comes to Kizer. That game alone bombed his stats and we are talking about conditions that aren't applicable to 99% of NFL games. Not just playing in the rain but literally in hurricane conditions.

Take that game out and he's above 60% in terms of his completions and physically he has the highest upside of any quarterback in this draft with the possible exception of Mahomes.

Originally posted by evil:
Agreed. This happens every year though unfortunately, people are too quick to throw players out before all the bowl games are done and before the combine and pro days because of what little they have seen from games (and usually games from that season only) they watched and YouTube highlights.

In a month, we'll be hearing the experts and analysts talk about the more tape they watched on a prospect the more they liked or disliked them and said prospect is now climbing or falling on boards.

He couldn't even win enough games to get his team into a bowl game...

Originally posted by jcs:

Originally posted by evil:

Agreed. This happens every year though unfortunately, people are too quick to throw players out before all the bowl games are done and before the combine and pro days because of what little they have seen from games (and usually games from that season only) they watched and YouTube highlights.

In a month, we'll be hearing the experts and analysts talk about the more tape they watched on a prospect the more they liked or disliked them and said prospect is now climbing or falling on boards.

He couldn't even win enough games to get his team into a bowl game...

Your response tells me all I need to know about your evaluation of him as a prospect. Football is a team game, his defense was beyond horrible, the talent level around him were a young and inexperienced squad that struggled on a weekly basis and his head coach did a terrible job all season with play calling and game management.

This year, Kizer's completion percentage went down from 63 percent to 59 percent mainly because he had a very inexperienced group of receivers. Except for Torii Hunter Jr., who missed almost half the season with injuries, the receiving corps was basically first-year players. The offensive line lost two players to the NFL after the 2015 season and wasn't nearly as good as it was last year.

Still, Kizer was able to throw for 2,915 yards and 26 touchdowns along with nine interceptions. Those stats are remarkable especially when you consider that Kizer was not the quarterback that Brian Kelly wanted playing. Kelly would have preferred that Zaire win the quarterback job and even started Zaire in the opening game versus Texas. Kelly had the two QBs alternating series but when it was obvious that Kizer was clearly the better and more productive player, Zaire was made the backup.

Even though Kizer re-won the starting job, the damage had been done. There was no question who the more talented player was, but when the head coach prefers another it can be tough to play with confidence. Add to that the fact that Notre Dame redshirted their quarterback of the future this past season. Sophomore Brandon Wimbush has size and traits similar to Zaire and is the quarterback Kelly wants to lead Notre Dame in 2017.

The offense Notre Dame played this year also hurt Kizer's development. In 2015, we saw a lot of quick passes where Kizer was able to get the ball out of his hand quickly. Of course, he had receivers who were very good after the catch. This year, except for some bubble screens, most of the pass plays were slower developing downfield throws. That type of offense is a much lower percentage passing offense and will hurt any quarterback's stats.

Kizer is about 6-4, 235 pounds with good to very good athletic ability. He doesn't have the suddenness of a smaller player but he has good speed and can run well with the ball. He has a good feel for pass rushers and can keep plays alive with his feet. His arm strength is second to none when compared to other quarterbacks who may be in this draft class.

Kizer can make all the throws that an NFL quarterback needs to make. The Notre Dame offense is more sophisticated than most of the spread offenses we see and Kizer is asked to do things similar to what NFL quarterbacks have to do. He can change plays at the line as well as protections. The offense is a full-field offense and the route tree the receivers run is an NFL-type. This gives him an advantage over many spread formation QBs, as they have half-field reads and minimal route trees.

For the most part, Kizer sees the field well and is a good decision-maker, but he will make the occasional poor decision and force a throw. If he goes back to school for 2017, I see him taking care of this problem with more college experience. The problem is, I doubt he returns, which means it's up to his NFL coaches to help him correct his flaws.

Kizer most likely won't be the first quarterback drafted and maybe not the second, but I do believe that two to three years down the road he will be the best quarterback in this class. He has as good or better natural tools than any other quarterback in this class, plus he has superb football character. He works at the game and wants to be a great player. Of course, time will tell, but some team in the middle of the first round will hit a home run.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2016/12/07/is-notre-dame-qb-deshone-kizer-worthy-of-a-first-round-pick/amko9ay/

Originally posted by evil:
Your response tells me all I need to know about your evaluation of him as a prospect. Football is a team game, his defense was beyond horrible, the talent level around him were a young and inexperienced squad that struggled on a weekly basis and his head coach did a terrible job all season with play calling and game management.

If he was a special, dominate player he would have overcome his teams failures and have won atleast 6 games...the min to get a bowl. Truth is he played on a bad team and was part of the failing equation. People want to say he looked good in 15' fine. So what we can take from that is his play declined in 16 and we are looking to spend the #2 on a QB who perhaps has already peaked. Something that needs to be looked into as well when you evaluate his stats are how they declined as the year wore on. He was ok at the beginning of the year but as it progressed he got worse. His 4th quarter splits are a massive red flag, showing he's only good to start games....don't we already have a QB like this on the roster?

Kizer in the 3rd round is a good pickup...he can sit and learn. Kizer at #2 is going to be thrown to the wolves and if he couldn't figure it out against unranked teams in college how do you think he's going to do on this team against NFL Defenses?

As much as I don't like him as a prospect. I'm willing to give him a chance. Notre Dame is as dysfunctional as we are, it's not surprising to see kizers production to be lackluster compared to his potential. The pre draft process will be his make or break point to be a top pick or a 2nd round guy. Interviews and whiteboard questions could boost him over Watson and trubisky.

Originally posted by jcs:
If he was a special, dominate player he would have overcome his teams failures and have won atleast 6 games...the min to get a bowl. Truth is he played on a bad team and was part of the failing equation. People want to say he looked good in 15' fine. So what we can take from that is his play declined in 16 and we are looking to spend the #2 on a QB who perhaps has already peaked. Something that needs to be looked into as well when you evaluate his stats are how they declined as the year wore on. He was ok at the beginning of the year but as it progressed he got worse. His 4th quarter splits are a massive red flag, showing he's only good to start games....don't we already have a QB like this on the roster?

Kizer in the 3rd round is a good pickup...he can sit and learn. Kizer at #2 is going to be thrown to the wolves and if he couldn't figure it out against unranked teams in college how do you think he's going to do on this team against NFL Defenses?

Lol at the idea that a QB performing worse in college in one season after losing all his starting receivers and his two best linemen and having to play in a hurricane is a sign that that player has peaked. Especially when his stats are almost exactly the same despite having a much worse supporting cast and are actually better once you exclude the hurricane game.

As others have pointed out, his stats in the 4th quarter last year were great. You're looking at a very small sample size if you're trying to use his play in 2016 to suggest that he's only good to start games. 2015 debunks the idea that Kizer struggles in the 4th quarter.

I don't understand the hate DK geta here??? he's a top prospect all this second third round b.s. lol.. you guys just don't get it.. he's going round one. and he's for sure going in the top half of round one.

This year, it was the opposite. In seven of the eight Notre Dame defeats, there was opportunity for the Irish in the fourth quarter to at least tie the score or move ahead, but the offense failed to achieve and execute what looked more routine the year prior. Consequently, Kizer joined some fine Notre Dame company in the frustration of "stats are fine, but wins would have been better."

https://notredame.rivals.com/news/quarterback-data-hype-with-team-success-not-always-one-at-notre-dame

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/2017-nfl-draft-where-is-the-deshone-kizer-hype-coming-from-122716

"First-round hype surrounding Deshone Kizer might be the most ridiculous thing I've seen associated with the NFL Draft this year. In a class lacking much NFL talent, people are throwing darts in the air hoping to hit something."