trade Kaepernick and pick #7 to Cleveland for Pick 2 (assuming Goff is on the board)

If we traded up to #2, we better not pick Jay Cutler 2.0 ( Goff ). If it were Tunsil, I'd be ok with that.

Originally posted by HERN:

If we traded up to #2, we better not pick Jay Cutler 2.0 ( Goff ). If it were Tunsil, I'd be ok with that.

Definitely don't want Goff unless he is still there at 7. He is not a can't miss prospect. He is accurate, above average arm, quick release and decent athlete....how is that different from Bradford who played "okay" in Chip's offense?

Originally posted by English:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
I'd take any of those 3 players I listed way before anyone who will be available at 7 including Jared Goff. There's no guarantee that the Browns finish as one of the bottom 3 teams in the league, but they were the worst team in football this year and we'd also be getting rid of Kaepernick's contract and freeing up $13.4 million which can be rolled over to next year's cap. It's a bad trade if you think Kaepernick is still worth something to other teams, but a good trade if we'd be sitting him on the bench all year or giving up picks to get rid of him.

Giving up picks to get rid of him? That isn't going to happen, is it.

We aren't going to know if he will be sitting on the bench all year. We don't know if the new coaching staff can turn him around. We aren't going to know if Gabbert gets injured or just is unable to perform to the required standard.

Our cap position means we don't have to cut or trade him. And trading him for a future pick would be foolishness right now, in my opinion.

By the way, just explain to me how the Browns' 1st round pick next year (an indeterminate pick right now) can be worth "a lot more" than our 2nd round pick this year? At best, I would suggest that the two picks are fairly equivalent, the '17 pick being a year off providing any value at all.

The general guide for mid-round picks is that this year's 5th round pick could be worth as much as next year's 4th round pick. I don't believe this is the case for first round picks, because if you look at the trade value chart, a top 5 pick is worth multiples more than a late first round pick. The probability that the worst team in football this year finishes next season with a top 10 pick is fairly high and there is a decent chance they end up with a top 5 pick in what looks like a more top heavy draft class in 2017.

The 1st round pick in a given year is worth twice as much as the #7 pick (3000 to 1500) according to the pick value calculator and more than 5 times as much as the 32nd pick. Late round picks are much closer in value which is why you're able to trade 5th or 6th round picks for picks that are a round higher next year. The expected value of the Browns' pick is likely 1500-2000 when you weight by the probability that they pick at 1, 2, 3, etc. I'd argue it's actually worth more than 1500 next year, because next year's class has some elite prospects at the top. Our 2nd round pick (37) is worth 570 points. 570 points in 2016 is not remotely close to 1500 points in 2017. That only works for late round picks.

If the Browns had an equal probability of finishing between 1 and 16, their expected pick value is 1575 in 2017. They were the worst team in the NFL in +/- this year, so I don't think that's a stretch. There's probably a very small probability they finish between 17 and 32, but there's a high probability they finish in the top 5-10. Either way, the pick is worth way more than our 2nd round pick this year.

with all the injuries and cap hit kaep is honestly probably worth a 6th round pick. remember your trading him at this bottom value right now

Jason La Canfora reporting no interest from Browns or Texans

Originally posted by Sims19849ers:
Jason La Canfora reporting no interest from Browns or Texans

well if they openly expressed interest there's risk of tampering investigation…where there's smoke there's fire

Originally posted by Mertonschickendance:

well if they openly expressed interest there's risk of tampering investigation…where there's smoke there's fire

This. No team can openly say they have interest in a player under contract.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by Mertonschickendance:
well if they openly expressed interest there's risk of tampering investigation…where there's smoke there's fire

This. No team can openly say they have interest in a player under contract.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's true, though.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by Mertonschickendance:

well if they openly expressed interest there's risk of tampering investigation…where there's smoke there's fire

This. No team can openly say they have interest in a player under contract.

Very good point and the 49ers haven't granted permission for him to seek a trade so it could just be playing it smart on their part.

Originally posted by strickac:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
I might be on the other side of this but I think he will get more than what people on here are thinking...this draft is not chalk full of day one starters and their isn't much in FA we can all agree on this.

He's been to a SB and won multiple playoff games on the road. IF Bradford can get a 2nd for doing nothing his whole career I don't see how Kap couldn't get the same...and all it takes is two teams that want him and reportedly Cleveland and Texans both are interested.

I'm with you on this. People were giving up on Alex and he got us two 2nd rounders. Chip said a team offered a 1st for Bradford.

I'm guessing that we'll get atleast a 2nd for Kaepernick.

If Alex had thrown a couple more passes to be qualified he would have been 3rd in rating at 104 in 2012 prior to his trade. Kap turned in a worst ever 31st ranking at 78 last year. Only Kap fans act like the last two years didn't happen, GMs aren't going to do that. He is at most going to get a 3rd day pick, if that.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by midrdan:
A more realistic trade:

49ers send Kap, their 3rd rounder and their 5th rounder to Cleveland for Cleveland's 2nd round pick.

I'm down. That is basically acquiring the last pick of the 1st with the Patriots pick having been taken away.



Goff, Wentz, Buckner, Stanley or Spence in the 1st.

Butler, Doctson, Spriggs or Calhoun with the Browns pick.


Butler, Kelly, Whitehair, Calhoun or Drango....otherwise trade down once or twice, take Prescott if no QB has been taken.

If Hue wants Kaep, and that's a big if, then I could see Baalke doing that scenario and getting Brown's 2nd RD pick. I still believe Hue is taking Wentz at #2, Cowboys go D at #4 and the Rams are trading up with the Ravens to #6 and draft Goff. Baalke goes either Buckner or Jack at #7 and then Baalke takes Prescott at top of 3rd RD (although he made have to trade up into lower 2nd to get ahead of Broncos).

Originally posted by Sims19849ers:

Originally posted by HERN:

If we traded up to #2, we better not pick Jay Cutler 2.0 ( Goff ). If it were Tunsil, I'd be ok with that.

Definitely don't want Goff unless he is still there at 7. He is not a can't miss prospect. He is accurate, above average arm, quick release and decent athlete....how is that different from Bradford who played "okay" in Chip's offense?

He's not gonna cost $20 million or whatever bradford looking to get...he's also not coming off 2 torn ACLs and isn't injury prone.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by Sims19849ers:

Originally posted by HERN:

If we traded up to #2, we better not pick Jay Cutler 2.0 ( Goff ). If it were Tunsil, I'd be ok with that.

Definitely don't want Goff unless he is still there at 7. He is not a can't miss prospect. He is accurate, above average arm, quick release and decent athlete....how is that different from Bradford who played "okay" in Chip's offense?

He's not gonna cost $20 million or whatever bradford looking to get...he's also not coming off 2 torn ACLs and isn't injury prone.

Got that but Bradford was relatively healthy last year and his strengths are very similar to Goff's strengths and that simply wasn't good enough. I want a more athletic QB for that zone read rushing attack. Bradford was no threat to take off

Originally posted by BobS:

If Alex had thrown a couple more passes to be qualified he would have been 3rd in rating at 104 in 2012 prior to his trade. Kap turned in a worst ever 31st ranking at 78 last year. Only Kap fans act like the last two years didn't happen, GMs aren't going to do that. He is at most going to get a 3rd day pick, if that.

I think some GMs will write last season as a result of Tomsula/Chryst ran offense. No one denies the physical talents and coaches think they can fix players.