Vernon Adams - QB Oregon

Originally posted by Jcool:

Originally posted by strickac:
No, I get your point. It just doesn't really make sense. If Adams were 3 inches taller everyone would be calling for him in the 2nd round. Maybe late in the 2nd because of him baby hands

Ehhhh no they probably wouldn't.

He has all the tools? I think he'd be a great steal for anyone if he was put in the right system with development. I know everyone hates the Wilson comparison, but the elusiveness and ability to stretch plays nowadays is RARE and Adams and Wilson both strive in that. Adams isn't run first, he can throw the ball with great power and accuracy. He made late round QB's look like CFL players in the Shrine game. Adams is intriguing and yes if he was taller I think he'd be arguably the 2nd or 3rd QB taken.

Since we are talking new coach new regime and possibly new QB why not draft both Hogan and Adams with late picks as we have lots of comp picks. Increase the odds. I think Seattle would take a serious look at him (Adams). Even though we may keep 2 or three, someone will be traded as majority of starting QBs will get hurt for a game or more.

He reminds me of another 49er QB.. what's his name again?? the guy form Ohio Sate and Baltimore Ravens??

I really like Adams. He has QB instincts, and seems similar to Wilson in that he's elusive and makes good decisions. He's the anti-Kap in that he seems like he's got that quick processing chip that allows him to be decisive and not take meaningless sacks. He's not afraid to set his feet when the pocket is collapsing either.

My major concern with Adams is whether he can hold up at the NFL level. Durability seemed to be a concern for him this year, and Russell Wilson is unusually durable for a smaller QB. That said, I think he can be a player at the next level if given the right opportunity, with good coaching and a functional OL.

Originally posted by 9moon:

He reminds me of another 49er QB.. what's his name again?? the guy form Ohio Sate and Baltimore Ravens??

Troy Smith

Originally posted by WildBill:
Since we are talking new coach new regime and possibly new QB why not draft both Hogan and Adams with late picks as we have lots of comp picks. Increase the odds. I think Seattle would take a serious look at him (Adams). Even though we may keep 2 or three, someone will be traded as majority of starting QBs will get hurt for a game or more.

Assuming that Kaep stays due to contract paragraphs, we certainly don't need to waste two picks for some QB-scrubs. It is absolutely useless. The probability to get a non-QB-starter on day 3 is way too high to do that.

Even if Kaep is cut, one QB-prospect is fine on day 2 or even 3.

Originally posted by rubbersoul80:
I really like Adams. He has QB instincts, and seems similar to Wilson in that he's elusive and makes good decisions. He's the anti-Kap in that he seems like he's got that quick processing chip that allows him to be decisive and not take meaningless sacks. He's not afraid to set his feet when the pocket is collapsing either.

My major concern with Adams is whether he can hold up at the NFL level. Durability seemed to be a concern for him this year, and Russell Wilson is unusually durable for a smaller QB. That said, I think he can be a player at the next level if given the right opportunity, with good coaching and a functional OL.

To be fair he missed games this year due to a broken finger (on his throwing hand). Not sure if that warrants a durability concern.

Oh and the bowl game he went out with a concussion but that hit was brutal helmet to helmet.

Originally posted by communist:

Originally posted by WildBill:
Since we are talking new coach new regime and possibly new QB why not draft both Hogan and Adams with late picks as we have lots of comp picks. Increase the odds. I think Seattle would take a serious look at him (Adams). Even though we may keep 2 or three, someone will be traded as majority of starting QBs will get hurt for a game or more.

Assuming that Kaep stays due to contract paragraphs, we certainly don't need to waste two picks for some QB-scrubs. It is absolutely useless. The probability to get a non-QB-starter on day 3 is way too high to do that.

Even if Kaep is cut, one QB-prospect is fine on day 2 or even 3.

QB position is one of the biggest keys, its a matter of the odds, one of them scrubs might not end being a scrub. Start gabbert (who maybe gone after this year) if not Kaep, if Kaep is not the starter trade him (or Gabbert) this trade would recoup a pick for one of the QBs, this is a comp pick anyway which we have used to find a diamond in the rough that has sometimes survived (Brown) or not (take your pick). As someone pointed out last year, Baalke has always picked a QB every draft, this year, being on the hot seat, he may pick two, just not real high.

Originally posted by WildBill:

Originally posted by communist:

Originally posted by WildBill:
Since we are talking new coach new regime and possibly new QB why not draft both Hogan and Adams with late picks as we have lots of comp picks. Increase the odds. I think Seattle would take a serious look at him (Adams). Even though we may keep 2 or three, someone will be traded as majority of starting QBs will get hurt for a game or more.

Assuming that Kaep stays due to contract paragraphs, we certainly don't need to waste two picks for some QB-scrubs. It is absolutely useless. The probability to get a non-QB-starter on day 3 is way too high to do that.

Even if Kaep is cut, one QB-prospect is fine on day 2 or even 3.

QB position is one of the biggest keys, its a matter of the odds, one of them scrubs might not end being a scrub. Start gabbert (who maybe gone after this year) if not Kaep, if Kaep is not the starter trade him (or Gabbert) this trade would recoup a pick for one of the QBs, this is a comp pick anyway which we have used to find a diamond in the rough that has sometimes survived (Brown) or not (take your pick). As someone pointed out last year, Baalke has always picked a QB every draft, this year, being on the hot seat, he may pick two, just not real high.

1) as pointed out by Phoenix and others, the odds to find a starting QB in late rounds are VERY small
2) how many of these QB-pickups are still here?

Originally posted by communist:
1) as pointed out by Phoenix and others, the odds to find a starting QB in late rounds are VERY small
2) how many of these QB-pickups are still here?

well it has happened, but very rarely as you are pushing. The most successful being Brady. Although not drafted, guys like Moon, Warner and others show how imperfect the system is finding one for your team and system is. Then you add in guys drafted so high that screamed bust (Leaf and others) and it furthers how inexact a science it is. Point is when getting players, especially QB, one should not be tunnel vision and allow oneself to be more open minded. Especially when you got what we hope is an offensive guru who made Foles look good before he turned into a pumpkin (same goes for the QB who came from the packers).

Originally posted by WildBill:
well it has happened, but very rarely as you are pushing. The most successful being Brady. Although not drafted, guys like Moon, Warner and others show how imperfect the system is finding one for your team and system is. Then you add in guys drafted so high that screamed bust (Leaf and others) and it furthers how inexact a science it is. Point is when getting players, especially QB, one should not be tunnel vision and allow oneself to be more open minded. Especially when you got what we hope is an offensive guru who made Foles look good before he turned into a pumpkin (same goes for the QB who came from the packers).

Extremely rare. QB has the lowest hit rate of any position after the 4th round. Most guys drafted after that will not take a single NFL snap. Its not like a safety or a linebacker where a guy can contribute on special teams if he can't play on defense. Your QB can either start games or he can't and is of no use to you anywhere else.


Hit rate in the 1st round for QB's is about 50:50, drops off into the 2nd significantly, drops off even more into the 3rd and by the 4th round, you're lining up and buying a Powerball ticket. You don't have to look any further than yesterday's playoff games. Every QB playing was a 1st rounder except for Brady who has become a significant outlier. Push it back a week to the divisional round and Brady and Wilson were the only non 1st round QBs playing.

This is why I'm far more in favor of taking QBs early in the first couple of rounds. IF you're going to draft one, get the best bang for your buck that you can.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by WildBill:
well it has happened, but very rarely as you are pushing. The most successful being Brady. Although not drafted, guys like Moon, Warner and others show how imperfect the system is finding one for your team and system is. Then you add in guys drafted so high that screamed bust (Leaf and others) and it furthers how inexact a science it is. Point is when getting players, especially QB, one should not be tunnel vision and allow oneself to be more open minded. Especially when you got what we hope is an offensive guru who made Foles look good before he turned into a pumpkin (same goes for the QB who came from the packers).

Extremely rare. QB has the lowest hit rate of any position after the 4th round. Most guys drafted after that will not take a single NFL snap. Its not like a safety or a linebacker where a guy can contribute on special teams if he can't play on defense. Your QB can either start games or he can't and is of no use to you anywhere else.


Hit rate in the 1st round for QB's is about 50:50, drops off into the 2nd significantly, drops off even more into the 3rd and by the 4th round, you're lining up and buying a Powerball ticket. You don't have to look any further than yesterday's playoff games. Every QB playing was a 1st rounder except for Brady who has become a significant outlier. Push it back a week to the divisional round and Brady and Wilson were the only non 1st round QBs playing.

This is why I'm far more in favor of taking QBs early in the first couple of rounds. IF you're going to draft one, get the best bang for your buck that you can.

This.

Of course, one could come up and say "then let's double the probability to hit on one, i.e. take two QBs late"...Useless, with a probability around 1% or so. Rather go after a defensive player in Baalke's case where the hit rate is quite high (as pointed out by Phoenix, just in a generalized fashion).

This would scare me away. He gets compared to Russell Wilson, but Adams has very small hands, at 8.75" compared to about 9.5" for an average NFL QB. Russell Wilson's are 10.25.

Take him late and let him compete. No harm done if he doesn't make it.

The big difference between Adams and Wilson in terms of size has to do with their respective weights not height. Adams was measured at the Shrine game at 5ft 10.5 inches and weighed 195. At the combine the year Wilson was drafted he measured just under 5ft 11in tall but weighed 220 pounds. Wilson has a huge and sturdy lower body that provides him a solid platform in the passing game, makes him more durable and protects him from injuries and gives him the great balance we see when he scrambles. That balance coupled with his quick feet makes him deadly. I think that Adams has a very comparable skill set to Wilson when evaluating arm strenght and overall passing ability plus quick feet to get a way from rushers. It is difficult to excel in the NFL at QB when you are under 5ft 11in. The huge lower body gives Wilson an asset that Adams will never have. Wilson also held the edge over Adams when he came out due to the system he played in at Wiscy. I think a 6 or 7th round pick for Adams is about right. He could possibly develop into a quality backup but the odds are against him developing into anything more due to his size.