MadDog49er Draft Analysis and Grade for 2015 NFL Draft

Another draft year has come and gone, and honestly, the weekend felt anticlimactic to me. Some drafts are like that.

On the Niners' draft. In one word: Argh! And, I'll be honest with you- I think this draft will be the undoing of Trent Baalke. Baalke has a strong philosophy of being very patient with players to either recover from injury, or develop their game, to eventually make their mark. The list of players who have been redshirted has been lengthy in the past few drafts, as well as guys they feel will be contributors down the road. The problem with that philosophy is....it is down the road.

The team needs instant impact players...now. Which of these players are going to be instant impact players? Armstead? Tartt? Harold? Bell? Davis? Smelter? Pinion? Silverman? Brown? Anderson? I understand that teams should take some players that they believe will recover from injury and contribute after their first year, or some developmental guys that have upside. Maybe Baalke thinks that our team is so stocked with great players that nobody could be drafted and make an immediate impact. I see a roster that is aging quickly, and starting to lose some bodies. We have holes to fill, and there were guys in this draft that are very talented, and could have made a huge impact right away. We simply didn't make those choices, hence my disappointment.

Let's break them down one by one:
Armstead was my 49th best player in this draft. The upside- he could be the next Calais Campbell. The downside- he becomes a big stiffy. For a mid-first round pick, I can't miss on this pick. I need something that shows he was a dominant college player and that game translates to the pros. I don't see that in Armstead. He was largely a 3 tackle/game player in 2014, with 2.5 sacks. Good player, don't get me wrong. But, if you looked at a ton of football games, and you were given a piece of paper and said, "Write down 15-17 names of guys that you think will be a star in the NFL" I just don't think he's make the list.

That being said, I have long praised his play in the National Championship game against OSU. He was the best Oregon defender on the field, and played his butt off.

In the end, everyone knows that this is a projection pick- he will be a rotational player who maybe takes 15 snaps a game at this point. We hope he turns into a star. To me, is a mid-late second round value, not mid-first. Compare the difference in one pick between the 14th and 15th: Parker and Armstead. To me, there is a massive difference in value and performance.

Tartt is a really nice college player who may end up being a starter down the road (2-3 years) in the NFL. Had a solid Senior Bowl week, and has good coverage skills. Once again, nice player. WIth Bethea at SS, Tartt is riding pine for at least one year. We might see him in some sub-packages, but he might not hit the field barely at all in 2015. Bethea is signed through 2017, with pretty cap friendly numbers for a Pro-Bowler: 3 million, 4.5 million, 5.25 million. So, we added the fourth safety on our depth chart for a mid-second rounder. I don't get it.

I really like Eli Harold, and see a future stud edge player. He gave Ereck Flowers fits this year (the only player who Flowers struggled against). Super fast first step (1.56 10 yard split), and he is only 20 years old. In 2014, he is going to run behind at least two or three edge players (Smith, Lynch, maybe Brooks), so I am not sure how much playing time he is going to have.

So, in a breakdown of the top three picks, we pretty much have three players who are barely, if all, going to play in 2015. I have a problem with this.

In the fourth round, we pick up a tight end, in Blake Bell, who is a converted QB. Nice kid, good athlete, but little experience, and limited stats (16 catches in 12 games). This is a project player, plain and simple, and I can't see him making it on the field at all with Davis and McDonald in front of him. Maybe a few snaps in goalline position. I had Bell graded as a 6-7th rounder. Just not very good value.

The second pick of the fourth was Mike Davis, a player who had a better year in 2013, and ran for less than a thousand yards in 2014. Here is a big red flag to me. He ran behind two drafted OL in Robinson and Cann, and pulled off 4.9 yards/carry. In college, that is a very poor benchmark for a RB. I just didn't see much burst or explosiveness. He is tough, and good-sized. However, I don't see anything more than a mediocre change of pace back that makes little to no impact. Call me a skeptic on Davis.

Of the three fourth rounders, I like Smelter the best. I watched nearly all of the GT games this year, and he was clearly the better receiver between him and Waller. Smelter always seemed to make the key catches to keep drives alive. Good, reliable hands, a big target, finds seems on the field to sit down into. Much to like. The downside- he is STRICTLY a possession, intermediate route WR. There is no juice at all, and separation is going to be a challenge for him. The bigger immediate problem- he is not going to play in 2015 unless there is a miracle. His ACL was late in the year, and he is about 4 months removed from surgery. At best, he will be a PUP, but more than likely a redshirt candidate.

Quick question. Who was the 165th best eligible player in the NFL Draft. According to the 49ers, it is Bradley Pinion. NFLDraftScout ranked Pinion the 11th best punter in the NFL draft. We better hope they are wrong. Pinion finished 5th in the ACC in yards per punt. He did pick up a fairly large percentage of fair catches. Maybe Andy Lee's $2 million salary is something the team wants to dump. I just don't get the pick...at all.

Sorry to reference NFL Draft Scout too much, but they ranked Ian Silberman as the 47th best guard in this draft. He is a converted left tackle, and I have seen him play (I watched about 6 BC games this year). Someone in the front office must be related, because this is another headscratcher. Athletically, he fits into the 50th or so percentile for athleticism compared to OL at the combine. Going to have to rewatch some games to make a more complete observation.

Trenton Brown is a monstrous OT/G from Florida, who had a solid Senior Bowl week. Played alongside three other drafted OL for Florida this weekedn: Humphries, Garcia, Green. Amazing that offense was so dysfunctional with 4 NFL draftees. He is a Pittsburgh Steeler in size at 6'8 1/2", 355. Brown has 36 inch arms, which is enormous. Athletically, he is subpar, so he needs to kick inside. Might be a valuable swing OL down the road, as I think he can play a little RT in an emergency. Versatility huge with these late rounders. I like this pick.

I like Busta ("don't call me Rory") Anderson- I am sure the teachers loved that line in high school. Very good athlete. Fast, can split the seam. The problem- 61 career catches at South Carolina, and recurring hamstring and triceps injuries. He is injured all the time. Microscopic sized hands (less than 9"). He has practice squad written all over him.

Late rounders are late rounders, so I don't put too much value on them when establishing a final grade. For me, you have to hit on Rounds 1-4 with guys who either start, or are significant contributors that make a big difference on the team.

I hope I am wrong, and each of these guys becomes amazing players for the best franchise in the NFL. At the same time, I have to be real, objective, and put the pom-poms down. What I have seen this year in game action is what I must rely upon to grade players. This is one man's opinion. And that opinion is that Baalke is going to be in deep trouble with this cluster of players, because I see 2012 all over again in this group.

My grade: D (In this grade, I don't take additional future picks, nor undrafted free agents, into account. I only base it upon the players selected at their slots).

My draft when the Niners were on the clock (would have loved to have picked up Ty Lockett, Henry Anderson, David Parry along the way, but it is what it is).

1st Cameron Erving C
2nd Jaelen Strong WR
3rd Carl Davis DE
4th Jay Ajayi RB
4th Martrell Spaight ILB
4th Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB
5th Tre McBride WR
6th Joey Mbu NT
7th BJ Finney C/G
7th Anthony Harris SS

Appreciate all the hard work you put into the draft. I'm also hope full that these guys will be better then expected. The whole draft just seems like a project. Not one guy can I say for sure that he is going to be the future starter or he will take over for so and so next year.

I could be wrong but I feel like we will have to address some of the same issues next year. Who's replacing Boldin or when Boone leaves in free agency? Wilhoite plays well but will we be wanting an upgrade? Vernon Davis' replacement?

Maybe some of those guys are in this group

I really thought we would end up with a Goldman, Parker or Peters. I thought we would add to the Oline in the early rounds as well.

I give it a C simply because I don't know what to make of all of it.

It's really hard to give it more than a B- or a C+ grade for me. I think Armstead, Harold, Tartt, Mike Davis, and Bell (I graded him higher than most) are good players, but you're right -- none of them will be needed or expected to significantly contribute this year. Not a single one. With two in Smelter and Rory Anderson that probably wind up on the PUP/IR list in year one.

Here's what I would've done instead if I were making the picks:

1. Cameron Erving, C
2. Carl Davis, DL
3. Eli Harold, OLB
4. Javorius Allen, RB
4. Marcus Hardison, DL
4. Stefon Diggs, WR
5. Tyrus Thompson, OT
6. Darren Waller, WR
7. Daryl Roberts, CB
7. Chris Hackett, S

Note: Edit did not change any of the players, simply corrected a typo.

You know, I told a friend of mine that this draft won't improve this team this year. If these guys somehow find the field, it will be in areas I thought we were ok in. But even if this happens, the same glaring holes from last year still exist.

A lot of these guys are physical specimens. A bit rough around the edges, but have really exciting potential.

I really liked this draft for what it could turn into down the road. I think a few of these guys will have a role for this year, or at least can compete for one during camp. I think Tartt gets the most playing time out of this class, mostly as a sub-package defender in Nickel and Dime. I also think we're a little deeper at certain position groups than we get credit for (WR and CB come to mind). Ellington, Patton, Reaser, Acker, and Johnson are all recent draft choices who have the talent to contribute. It's just a matter of putting them on the field and giving them a role.

But I can totally see the point of view from people who dislike this draft. We never grabbed that WR, ILB, or CB that would instantly vault toward the top of the depth chart and play big roles. I don't like to get into "value" and "reaches" because each team structures their board very differently and looks for different skill sets depending on the scheme/needs. I'm most disappointed we didn't grab a stud LB to pair with Bowman. I'm glad we addressed the d-line in the 1st round, even though Armstead wasn't really the guy I wanted.

Even so, we did get some really talented prospects spread all throughout the roster, and I'm looking forward to seeing some of our past draft picks get a chance to play and prove their worth.

I also gave it a D. Too much bust potential, if even that.

I agree with all that you said. A bunch of us were roasted in NT for saying basically the same types of things.

we cant afford to go after a Center in round 1 when we got two guys in this position of which one of them was coached for a couple of years to play there. And he seemed to be solid last year. Erving would have been a luxury pick.

At WR, we are set with Boldin and Torrey for now. Ellington should be lined up in the slot pretty often, imho. Therefore, one cannot expect an impact by any WR-draftee because he wouldn't see the field that often.
At CB, we are loaded with people for now as well.
At ILB, I am a little bit surprised as well. Then again, Baalke does never align with our expectations.

Very good analysis. D is just a nice way of saying F in my opinion, so I guess you were being polite.

But, I don't agree with your picks. Center as the 1st pick is a no-no for me. Like you said, I would have gone for a proper impact player right off the bat in Melvin Gordon. Would have liked to take a WR in the 2nd round, I am fine with Jalen Strong if that's the guy you like. But, I definitely would have liked to pick up Bryce Petty. This is a complete shame, I was already hoping for Garappolo last year knowing Kap will bust out sooner rather than later. Again we have no QBs on the roster, is just ridiculous.

Originally posted by Rascal:
Very good analysis. D is just a nice way of saying F in my opinion, so I guess you were being polite.

But, I don't agree with your picks. Center as the 1st pick is a no-no for me. Like you said, I would have gone for a proper impact player right off the bat in Melvin Gordon. Would have liked to take a WR in the 2nd round, I am fine with Jalen Strong if that's the guy you like. But, I definitely would have liked to pick up Bryce Petty. This is a complete shame, I was already hoping for Garappolo last year knowing Kap will bust out sooner rather than later. Again we have no QBs on the roster, is just ridiculous.

yeah right, as if we ever thought about going after a QB in round 2 last year.

MadDog, you're assessment is way too harsh. This draft just wasn't loaded with starters and day 1 contributors. Even the first three picks in your draft includes only 1 possible starter (Erving).

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another draft year has come and gone, and honestly, the weekend felt anticlimactic to me. Some drafts are like that.

On the Niners' draft. In one word: Argh! And, I'll be honest with you- I think this draft will be the undoing of Trent Baalke. Baalke has a strong philosophy of being very patient with players to either recover from injury, or develop their game, to eventually make their mark. The list of players who have been redshirted has been lengthy in the past few drafts, as well as guys they feel will be contributors down the road. The problem with that philosophy is....it is down the road.

The team needs instant impact players...now. Which of these players are going to be instant impact players? Armstead? Tartt? Harold? Bell? Davis? Smelter? Pinion? Silverman? Brown? Anderson? I understand that teams should take some players that they believe will recover from injury and contribute after their first year, or some developmental guys that have upside. Maybe Baalke thinks that our team is so stocked with great players that nobody could be drafted and make an immediate impact. I see a roster that is aging quickly, and starting to lose some bodies. We have holes to fill, and there were guys in this draft that are very talented, and could have made a huge impact right away. We simply didn't make those choices, hence my disappointment.

Let's break them down one by one:
Armstead was my 49th best player in this draft. The upside- he could be the next Calais Campbell. The downside- he becomes a big stiffy. For a mid-first round pick, I can't miss on this pick. I need something that shows he was a dominant college player and that game translates to the pros. I don't see that in Armstead. He was largely a 3 tackle/game player in 2014, with 2.5 sacks. Good player, don't get me wrong. But, if you looked at a ton of football games, and you were given a piece of paper and said, "Write down 15-17 names of guys that you think will be a star in the NFL" I just don't think he's make the list.

That being said, I have long praised his play in the National Championship game against OSU. He was the best Oregon defender on the field, and played his butt off.

In the end, everyone knows that this is a projection pick- he will be a rotational player who maybe takes 15 snaps a game at this point. We hope he turns into a star. To me, is a mid-late second round value, not mid-first. Compare the difference in one pick between the 14th and 15th: Parker and Armstead. To me, there is a massive difference in value and performance.

Tartt is a really nice college player who may end up being a starter down the road (2-3 years) in the NFL. Had a solid Senior Bowl week, and has good coverage skills. Once again, nice player. WIth Bethea at SS, Tartt is riding pine for at least one year. We might see him in some sub-packages, but he might not hit the field barely at all in 2015. Bethea is signed through 2017, with pretty cap friendly numbers for a Pro-Bowler: 3 million, 4.5 million, 5.25 million. So, we added the fourth safety on our depth chart for a mid-second rounder. I don't get it.

I really like Eli Harold, and see a future stud edge player. He gave Ereck Flowers fits this year (the only player who Flowers struggled against). Super fast first step (1.56 10 yard split), and he is only 20 years old. In 2014, he is going to run behind at least two or three edge players (Smith, Lynch, maybe Brooks), so I am not sure how much playing time he is going to have.

So, in a breakdown of the top three picks, we pretty much have three players who are barely, if all, going to play in 2015. I have a problem with this.

In the fourth round, we pick up a tight end, in Blake Bell, who is a converted QB. Nice kid, good athlete, but little experience, and limited stats (16 catches in 12 games). This is a project player, plain and simple, and I can't see him making it on the field at all with Davis and McDonald in front of him. Maybe a few snaps in goalline position. I had Bell graded as a 6-7th rounder. Just not very good value.

The second pick of the fourth was Mike Davis, a player who had a better year in 2013, and ran for less than a thousand yards in 2014. Here is a big red flag to me. He ran behind two drafted OL in Robinson and Cann, and pulled off 4.9 yards/carry. In college, that is a very poor benchmark for a RB. I just didn't see much burst or explosiveness. He is tough, and good-sized. However, I don't see anything more than a mediocre change of pace back that makes little to no impact. Call me a skeptic on Davis.

Of the three fourth rounders, I like Smelter the best. I watched nearly all of the GT games this year, and he was clearly the better receiver between him and Waller. Smelter always seemed to make the key catches to keep drives alive. Good, reliable hands, a big target, finds seems on the field to sit down into. Much to like. The downside- he is STRICTLY a possession, intermediate route WR. There is no juice at all, and separation is going to be a challenge for him. The bigger immediate problem- he is not going to play in 2015 unless there is a miracle. His ACL was late in the year, and he is about 4 months removed from surgery. At best, he will be a PUP, but more than likely a redshirt candidate.

Quick question. Who was the 165th best eligible player in the NFL Draft. According to the 49ers, it is Bradley Pinion. NFLDraftScout ranked Pinion the 11th best punter in the NFL draft. We better hope they are wrong. Pinion finished 5th in the ACC in yards per punt. He did pick up a fairly large percentage of fair catches. Maybe Andy Lee's $2 million salary is something the team wants to dump. I just don't get the pick...at all.

Sorry to reference NFL Draft Scout too much, but they ranked Ian Silberman as the 47th best guard in this draft. He is a converted left tackle, and I have seen him play (I watched about 6 BC games this year). Someone in the front office must be related, because this is another headscratcher. Athletically, he fits into the 50th or so percentile for athleticism compared to OL at the combine. Going to have to rewatch some games to make a more complete observation.

Trenton Brown is a monstrous OT/G from Florida, who had a solid Senior Bowl week. Played alongside three other drafted OL for Florida this weekedn: Humphries, Garcia, Green. Amazing that offense was so dysfunctional with 4 NFL draftees. He is a Pittsburgh Steeler in size at 6'8 1/2", 355. Brown has 36 inch arms, which is enormous. Athletically, he is subpar, so he needs to kick inside. Might be a valuable swing OL down the road, as I think he can play a little RT in an emergency. Versatility huge with these late rounders. I like this pick.

I like Busta ("don't call me Rory") Anderson- I am sure the teachers loved that line in high school. Very good athlete. Fast, can split the seam. The problem- 61 career catches at South Carolina, and recurring hamstring and triceps injuries. He is injured all the time. Microscopic sized hands (less than 9"). He has practice squad written all over him.

Late rounders are late rounders, so I don't put too much value on them when establishing a final grade. For me, you have to hit on Rounds 1-4 with guys who either start, or are significant contributors that make a big difference on the team.

I hope I am wrong, and each of these guys becomes amazing players for the best franchise in the NFL. At the same time, I have to be real, objective, and put the pom-poms down. What I have seen this year in game action is what I must rely upon to grade players. This is one man's opinion. And that opinion is that Baalke is going to be in deep trouble with this cluster of players, because I see 2012 all over again in this group.

My grade: D (In this grade, I don't take additional future picks, nor undrafted free agents, into account. I only base it upon the players selected at their slots).

My draft when the Niners were on the clock (would have loved to have picked up Ty Lockett, Henry Anderson, David Parry along the way, but it is what it is).

1st Cameron Erving C
2nd Jaelen Strong WR
3rd Carl Davis DE
4th Jay Ajayi RB
4th Martrell Spaight ILB
4th Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB
5th Tre McBride WR
6th Joey Mbu NT
7th BJ Finney C/G
7th Anthony Harris SS

MadDog recognizes dem Hogs!!!

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

My grade: D (In this grade, I don't take additional future picks, nor undrafted free agents, into account. I only base it upon the players selected at their slots).

My draft when the Niners were on the clock (would have loved to have picked up Ty Lockett, Henry Anderson, David Parry along the way, but it is what it is).

1st Cameron Erving C
2nd Jaelen Strong WR
3rd Carl Davis DE
4th Jay Ajayi RB
4th Martrell Spaight ILB
4th Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB
5th Tre McBride WR
6th Joey Mbu NT
7th BJ Finney C/G
7th Anthony Harris SS

Lots of good assessments that I agree with.. and that draft is far more appealing than the reality.

You put in work. Much respect and much appreciated!

I actually like the upside of this draft. I dislike there are no immediate plug and play picks for 2015.

I love Tartt pick. I honestly think he is a baller.

I really wanted Hundley and Strong!

A D grade? Sounds about right to me. This group was a mix of reaches, head scratchers, and developmental prospects after one of the biggest talent drains in the offseason. Unbelievable. Thanks for all the hard work, MadDog.