MadDog49er Draft Analysis and Grade for 2015 NFL Draft | Page 5

MadDog49er · 2015-05-02T22:03:27-07:00

Another draft year has come and gone, and honestly, the weekend felt anticlimactic to me. Some drafts are like that. On the Niners' draft. In one word: Argh! And, I'll be honest with you- I think this draft will be the undoing of Trent Baalke. Baalke has a strong philosophy of being very patient with players to either recover from injury, or develop their game, to eventually make their mark. The list of players who have been redshirted has been lengthy in the past few drafts, as well as guys they feel will be contributors down the road. The problem with that philosophy is....it is down the road. The team needs instant impact players...now. Which of these players are going to be instant impact players? Armstead? Tartt? Harold? Bell? Davis? Smelter? Pinion? Silverman? Brown? Anderson? I understand that teams should take some players that they believe will recover from injury and contribute after their first year, or some developmental guys that have upside. Maybe Baalke thinks that our team is so stocked with great players that nobody could be drafted and make an immediate impact. I see a roster that is aging quickly, and starting to lose some bodies. We have holes to fill, and there were guys in this draft that are very talented, and could have made a huge impact right away. We simply didn't make those choices, hence my disappointment. Let's break them down one by one: Armstead was my 49th best player in this draft. The upside- he could be the next Calais Campbell. The downside- he becomes a big stiffy. For a mid-first round pick, I can't miss on this pick. I need something that shows he was a dominant college player and that game translates to the pros. I don't see that in Armstead. He was largely a 3 tackle/game player in 2014, with 2.5 sacks. Good player, don't get me wrong. But, if you looked at a ton of football games, and you were given a piece of paper and said, "Write down 15-17 names of guys that you think will be a star in the NFL" I just don't think he's make the list. That being said, I have long praised his play in the National Championship game against OSU. He was the best Oregon defender on the field, and played his butt off. In the end, everyone knows that this is a projection pick- he will be a rotational player who maybe takes 15 snaps a game at this point. We hope he turns into a star. To me, is a mid-late second round value, not mid-first. Compare the difference in one pick between the 14th and 15th: Parker and Armstead. To me, there is a massive difference in value and performance. Tartt is a really nice college player who may end up being a starter down the road (2-3 years) in the NFL. Had a solid Senior Bowl week, and has good coverage skills. Once again, nice player. WIth Bethea at SS, Tartt is riding pine for at least one year. We might see him in some sub-packages, but he might not hit the field barely at all in 2015. Bethea is signed through 2017, with pretty cap friendly numbers for a Pro-Bowler: 3 million, 4.5 million, 5.25 million. So, we added the fourth safety on our depth chart for a mid-second rounder. I don't get it. I really like Eli Harold, and see a future stud edge player. He gave Ereck Flowers fits this year (the only player who Flowers struggled against). Super fast first step (1.56 10 yard split), and he is only 20 years old. In 2014, he is going to run behind at least two or three edge players (Smith, Lynch, maybe Brooks), so I am not sure how much playing time he is going to have. So, in a breakdown of the top three picks, we pretty much have three players who are barely, if all, going to play in 2015. I have a problem with this. In the fourth round, we pick up a tight end, in Blake Bell, who is a converted QB. Nice kid, good athlete, but little experience, and limited stats (16 catches in 12 games). This is a project player, plain and simple, and I can't see him making it on the field at all with Davis and McDonald in front of him. Maybe a few snaps in goalline position. I had Bell graded as a 6-7th rounder. Just not very good value. The second pick of the fourth was Mike Davis, a player who had a better year in 2013, and ran for less than a thousand yards in 2014. Here is a big red flag to me. He ran behind two drafted OL in Robinson and Cann, and pulled off 4.9 yards/carry. In college, that is a very poor benchmark for a RB. I just didn't see much burst or explosiveness. He is tough, and good-sized. However, I don't see anything more than a mediocre change of pace back that makes little to no impact. Call me a skeptic on Davis. Of the three fourth rounders, I like Smelter the best. I watched nearly all of the GT games this year, and he was clearly the better receiver between him and Waller. Smelter always seemed to make the key catches to keep drives alive. Good, reliable hands, a big target, finds seems on the field to sit down into. Much to like. The downside- he is STRICTLY a possession, intermediate route WR. There is no juice at all, and separation is going to be a challenge for him. The bigger immediate problem- he is not going to play in 2015 unless there is a miracle. His ACL was late in the year, and he is about 4 months removed from surgery. At best, he will be a PUP, but more than likely a redshirt candidate. Quick question. Who was the 165th best eligible player in the NFL Draft. According to the 49ers, it is Bradley Pinion. NFLDraftScout ranked Pinion the 11th best punter in the NFL draft. We better hope they are wrong. Pinion finished 5th in the ACC in yards per punt. He did pick up a fairly large percentage of fair catches. Maybe Andy Lee's $2 million salary is something the team wants to dump. I just don't get the pick...at all. Sorry to reference NFL Draft Scout too much, but they ranked Ian Silberman as the 47th best guard in this draft. He is a converted left tackle, and I have seen him play (I watched about 6 BC games this year). Someone in the front office must be related, because this is another headscratcher. Athletically, he fits into the 50th or so percentile for athleticism compared to OL at the combine. Going to have to rewatch some games to make a more complete observation. Trenton Brown is a monstrous OT/G from Florida, who had a solid Senior Bowl week. Played alongside three other drafted OL for Florida this weekedn: Humphries, Garcia, Green. Amazing that offense was so dysfunctional with 4 NFL draftees. He is a Pittsburgh Steeler in size at 6'8 1/2", 355. Brown has 36 inch arms, which is enormous. Athletically, he is subpar, so he needs to kick inside. Might be a valuable swing OL down the road, as I think he can play a little RT in an emergency. Versatility huge with these late rounders. I like this pick. I like Busta ("don't call me Rory") Anderson- I am sure the teachers loved that line in high school. Very good athlete. Fast, can split the seam. The problem- 61 career catches at South Carolina, and recurring hamstring and triceps injuries. He is injured all the time. Microscopic sized hands (less than 9"). He has practice squad written all over him. Late rounders are late rounders, so I don't put too much value on them when establishing a final grade. For me, you have to hit on Rounds 1-4 with guys who either start, or are significant contributors that make a big difference on the team. I hope I am wrong, and each of these guys becomes amazing players for the best franchise in the NFL. At the same time, I have to be real, objective, and put the pom-poms down. What I have seen this year in game action is what I must rely upon to grade players. This is one man's opinion. And that opinion is that Baalke is going to be in deep trouble with this cluster of players, because I see 2012 all over again in this group. My grade: D (In this grade, I don't take additional future picks, nor undrafted free agents, into account. I only base it upon the players selected at their slots). My draft when the Niners were on the clock (would have loved to have picked up Ty Lockett, Henry Anderson, David Parry along the way, but it is what it is). 1st Cameron Erving C 2nd Jaelen Strong WR 3rd Carl Davis DE 4th Jay Ajayi RB 4th Martrell Spaight ILB 4th Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB 5th Tre McBride WR 6th Joey Mbu NT 7th BJ Finney C/G 7th Anthony Harris SS

May 3, 2015 at 1:12 PM

#61

GhostofFredDean74
Hall of Fame
Posts: 30,082

Originally posted by jreff22:

Originally posted by Young2Rice:
I thought I was tripping about what happened. I'm glad there are others, especially qualified dudes like maddogg who feel the same way.

That was a weird draft. Almost like it was chaos.

It's either going to be genius or a colossal failure, I see no middle ground.

Seems obvious to me that Baalke drafted with a very specific profile in mind, thinking primarily about system/style/philosophical fit as opposed to adhering to what others see as "value." So long as this coaching staff is around long enough to develop these players and allow them to flourish in this system, and the players buy in mentally, physically and schematically, we should get pretty good results from this draft.

Belichick has proven that you don't have to field the best, most talented 53-man roster to win a Super Bowl. You clearly need a franchise QB (it starts/stops there, and it remains to be seen whether Kap can be that), but after that, you just need the RIGHT players who fit YOUR scheme, YOUR style, who buy into YOUR philosophy and who execute as it's drawn up.

If you can build that kind of dynamic, you can stay relevant and compete for titles for a very long time. IMO, that's Baalke's approach for good or for bad.

May 3, 2015 at 1:17 PM

#62

stonecold590
Veteran
Posts: 2,385

I honestly feel they have faith in the team now as it stands. I really think that the draft was focusing on more of next year. I doubt we resign VD. Vance may be cut if he doesnt show vast improvement. Boldin may be gone is possession receiver in Smelter. Dahl may not get through this year let alone next. Reid is a concussion away from possible early retirement, IE safety pick. Boone is gone next year if not before so Drafting big physical Oline that are raw so they can get a year of work and molding. Bush and Hunter are one 1 year deals. Draft the RB. It goes on and on.

Next year things may be different on how they draft but this year was def looking a year down the road. I know it pisses people off who want new guys starting right now.but building for the future instead of paying high priced stop gaps is cheaper and smarter. Let's at least let it play out

[ Edited by stonecold590 on May 3, 2015 at 1:20 PM ]

May 3, 2015 at 1:25 PM

#63

Since07
Veteran
Posts: 5,799

Armstead/Harold will be unstoppable in pre season.

May 3, 2015 at 1:28 PM

#64

socal9er42
Veteran
Posts: 4,631

Agree with the rest - Good work as always MD! Sure do appreciate the work you put into this. I hope it is a labor of love.

I'm also in the C+ range, but hope that I am wrong.

As much as I liked Baalke's 2013 and 2014 Drafts, this has the feel of 2012 written all over it.

May 3, 2015 at 2:26 PM

#65

ProfessorKel
Veteran
Posts: 3,739

Originally posted by Since07:
Armstead/Harold will be unstoppable in future Superbowl runs.

fixed.

May 3, 2015 at 2:30 PM

#66

ProfessorKel
Veteran
Posts: 3,739

Originally posted by socal9er42:
Agree with the rest - Good work as always MD! Sure do appreciate the work you put into this. I hope it is a labor of love.

I'm also in the C+ range, but hope that I am wrong.

As much as I liked Baalke's 2013 and 2014 Drafts, this has the feel of 2012 written all over it.

I disagree with the 2012 comparison due the miscalculated intent of that draft. Our team sorely lacked speed after a successful 2011 run, so we drafted players with those characteristics, despite not fitting the overall 49er identity of size and power (see AJ Jenkins and Lamichael James, specifically).

This time around, while some of the selections weren't BPA, each player, including our punter, fit Balke's vision (Outside of Mike Davis, not a single player is under 6'2). While all respective players are relative projects that need development, the potential of each selection dwarfs the ceilings of those drafted in 2012.

May 3, 2015 at 2:35 PM

#67

ClassicNiner
Veteran
Posts: 827

Great job, MD, throughout the whole draft process. Sadly, I think your analysis will turn out to be accurate. The 2 words in this thread that best describe Balke, imho, are hubris and arrogance. The jury is still out on his skill in the draft. Hyde, Ellington, MacDonald, Ward, Patton all still haven't shown much. Yeah, you can say some of them didn't get to play, but maybe they weren't good enough. Was Aldon a great pick at #8? Jury still out on that one. Borland was a terrible pick because he is gone already.

May 3, 2015 at 2:51 PM

#68

socal9er42
Veteran
Posts: 4,631

Originally posted by Imfasterthanur:

Originally posted by socal9er42:
Agree with the rest - Good work as always MD! Sure do appreciate the work you put into this. I hope it is a labor of love.

I'm also in the C+ range, but hope that I am wrong.

As much as I liked Baalke's 2013 and 2014 Drafts, this has the feel of 2012 written all over it.

I disagree with the 2012 comparison due the miscalculated intent of that draft. Our team sorely lacked speed after a successful 2011 run, so we drafted players with those characteristics, despite not fitting the overall 49er identity of size and power (see AJ Jenkins and Lamichael James, specifically).

This time around, while some of the selections weren't BPA, each player, including our punter, fit Balke's vision (Outside of Mike Davis, not a single player is under 6'2). While all respective players are relative projects that need development, the potential of each selection dwarfs the ceilings of those drafted in 2012.

It feels like the 2012 Draft to me because of the fact that in both, we were reaching. It doesn't matter much to me about the reason, just the fact that we took Players too early or who didn't fit a need.

I know it takes two to tango, but if it's coming up to your pick (say #46) and the player you have targeted is ranked in the 80's by most analysis - trade back. Even if AJ Jenkins didn't fit the prototype of what you perceived as the type of player the 9ers needed, he was still drafted way too high (IMHO).

May 3, 2015 at 3:01 PM

#69

TheFunkyChicken
Veteran
Posts: 4,364

Thanks Maddog, your post was very refreshing. And you did a much better job articulating what I have been banging on about here, and getting banged on right back for: which is our confounding resistance to drafting an impact WR. When I tried to explain my position I got caught up talking about 'elite' WRs and ended up in arguments that weren't really about what I was trying to say. And you said it perfectly, we're drafting players that will make an impact.

It kills me when every year we have our pick of impact WRs, but we take Jimmy Ward (who isn't even drafted to ever play a starting position!) and pass on Kelvin Benjamin, Martavius Bryant and Donte Moncrief. All players who make contributions right away.

But you've hit on something bigger, which is that Baalke's need to get cute and reach for high upside, low pay off percentage players is affecting all positions. It's giving us a roster bloated with project players.

I am excited about some of our guys, but they still aren't the ones I would have gone after. Tartt is exactly the kind SS I think we need, but I think Geathers would have been better value. Coates, Funchess and Agholor all seem like much surer bets than Smelter, and still have high upside. And while I like Davis, I think we could have waited and gone after Robinson, who looks like a very similar RB to me (although a little shorter).

Well, as always, I'll hope for the best. Thanks for your post, MD.

May 3, 2015 at 3:38 PM

#70

pasodoc9er
Veteran
Posts: 21,040

Kudos to MD, who as usual at draft time has done hours, weeks, months of work. Kudos also to NCommand, who looked at this from Baalke's and then MD's viewpoints. Both guys deserve our thanks. That said, i go with GoFD, Wrath to name a few. I think our first 3 guys are going to get a lot of playing time by end of season and we are going to see a rearrangement of our LBs in passing situations. I like all 3 picks as very likely to contribute this yr, and get significant playing time. Qb is the one position that is a problem for me, and i sure wish we would havre taken Garopolo last yr. AFter 1st two picks i didn't like any QB, and nothing we could have done about that this yr. So more than likely we get a journeyman backup QB elsewhere. If JT is going with gabbert as backup, yikes. I just don't see that.

Otherwise i look at this draft a lot like NC, and really didn't think the talent was there in the first two rds, more developmental talent in rds 4-7. where 30 % of all teams starters come from.(Courtesy of Herm Edwards). Therefore, unless picking in top 6 or 7, the true stars of the future were gone. Ok, a lot of folks would say later than that, but this was not the world's best talent iin number of great players available. Yes i liked marriotta but sure wouldn't give away the franchise to get him. We got good talent developers. This was a developmental draft to me, and that what baalke did. Guys who know a lot more than i didn't agree, but i liked this draft for what we got in talent. And i think the top 3 will be starters within 2 yrs and play a lot the first yr. Grade witheld pending how these guys develop(are developed) or not.

I will end with this would be a lousy draft wth harbaw as HC. JT is a player developer, and JH wasn't, especially at QB where he was wrongly known as a QB whisperer. That was the Stanford QB, now with Colts, NOT the coach. So based on that i like trent's draft. It would have been a terrible draft if harbaw was stilll here.

[ Edited by pasodoc9er on May 3, 2015 at 3:44 PM ]

May 3, 2015 at 3:40 PM

#71

ElephantHaley
Member
Posts: 7,020

Originally posted by deepniner:
Great analysis MadDog! The only positive about this draft, is that I'm hoping York sees that Baalke is not up to the task and fires him very soon.

Soooooooooooooooooooooo THIS!!!!!! Balke Needs to go...NOW.

May 3, 2015 at 3:55 PM

#72

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by jreff22:

Originally posted by Young2Rice:
I thought I was tripping about what happened. I'm glad there are others, especially qualified dudes like maddogg who feel the same way.

That was a weird draft. Almost like it was chaos.

It's either going to be genius or a colossal failure, I see no middle ground.

Seems obvious to me that Baalke drafted with a very specific profile in mind, thinking primarily about system/style/philosophical fit as opposed to adhering to what others see as "value." So long as this coaching staff is around long enough to develop these players and allow them to flourish in this system, and the players buy in mentally, physically and schematically, we should get pretty good results from this draft.

Belichick has proven that you don't have to field the best, most talented 53-man roster to win a Super Bowl. You clearly need a franchise QB (it starts/stops there, and it remains to be seen whether Kap can be that), but after that, you just need the RIGHT players who fit YOUR scheme, YOUR style, who buy into YOUR philosophy and who execute as it's drawn up.

If you can build that kind of dynamic, you can stay relevant and compete for titles for a very long time. IMO, that's Baalke's approach for good or for bad.

Pretty much it in a nutshell. 100% agree. There was this other weird guy named Bill Walsh who used to take this very same approach.

May 3, 2015 at 4:14 PM

#73

nw9erfan
Veteran
Posts: 1,497

Originally posted by Imfasterthanur:
I disagree with the 2012 comparison due the miscalculated intent of that draft. Our team sorely lacked speed after a successful 2011 run, so we drafted players with those characteristics, despite not fitting the overall 49er identity of size and power (see AJ Jenkins and Lamichael James, specifically).

This time around, while some of the selections weren't BPA, each player, including our punter, fit Balke's vision (Outside of Mike Davis, not a single player is under 6'2). While all respective players are relative projects that need development, the potential of each selection dwarfs the ceilings of those drafted in 2012.

What strikes me about this draft is the wide variation of opinions on it. I've seen it graded as low as D (Maddog) and as high as a B+ (nfl.com). Considering that there are so many developmental players in it, I think it is not only impossible, but unfair, to give it a grade at this point. While I would probably not like Baalke if I met him (I'm not a big fan of intensely competitive people in general), I do think he is a good judge of talent ...except at WR...:). It seems to me that what this draft proved, if anything, is that Baalke has a tremendous amount of faith in the coaching staff's ability to develop players, not only the ones drafted this year, but the ones last year as well.

Now to the picks...
Armstead was hurt much of last year and got healthier (and better) as the season progressed. Therefore, it is a greater indication of his potential pro impact to look at the last 2-3 games. Also, I'm sure the Niners were impressed that he not only played hurt, but stepped up in pressure games.

While I would have liked the team to have gotten WR Strong, I do think that getting another S (Tartt), particularly given Reid's concussions and Ward's bad foot, was a good idea. I also like the guy in nickel packages.

Seems like everyone likes the Harold pick (and as we all know, pass rushers are worth their weight in gold).

The Bell pick was probably a reach but looking at last year's TE production, or lack thereof, trying to create more competition at that position (as well as find a possible replacement for Vernon) is certainly warranted.

RB Davis was also banged up much of last season but was terrific the previous season so I don't have an issue with this pick, especially since this guy is a fine receiver out of the backfield. In a pinch, Davis could certainly start a game or two, even as a rookie.

WR Smelter will undoubtedly redshirt the next season but with the tutelage of the coaching staff (and Boldin), he certainly is an intriguing pick for the future (as is the Anderson pick later...I'm hoping the Niners move him to WR actually).

We'll see, obviously, about the 2 OL prospects (not too impressed myself), but if they provide some competition for the guys on the roster already, then great.

So, to sum up, I don't think this was a bad draft for the Niners at all, especially given the lack of talent in it at ILB, CB, and TE overall (3 of the current "needs" of the team).

I do want to say though that I have an enormous amount of respect for Maddog's judge of talent....and always appreciate his excellent posts.

Cheers!

[ Edited by nw9erfan on May 3, 2015 at 7:55 PM ]

May 3, 2015 at 5:06 PM

#74

bzborow1
Veteran
Posts: 3,539

Have to say I came away somewhat disappointed in this draft, but Baalke has always been this way in his drafting. For as much discussion as has been made on Armstead, I think his selection speaks more to me as an indictment on Dial and Carradine as future starters. If Baalke were at all confident in those two, in particular Carradine, then we wouldn't have needed to go DE in the first place.

Perhaps I'm wrong,but I have yet to see one of his redshirted picks produce.

[ Edited by bzborow1 on May 3, 2015 at 5:07 PM ]

May 3, 2015 at 5:13 PM

#75

crew
Veteran
Posts: 805

Originally posted by ElephantHaley:
Originally posted by deepniner:
Great analysis MadDog! The only positive about this draft, is that I'm hoping York sees that Baalke is not up to the task and fires him very soon.

Soooooooooooooooooooooo THIS!!!!!! Balke Needs to go...NOW.

Great draft Baalke, love the first 6 picks, would have preferred Buck Allen over Davis, pissed that he went a pick before - go Niners !