MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by Rascal:

Besides, I doubt anyone (if being honest) can tell me, the Vikings and the Rams didn't draft better than the 9ers.

This remark seems insulting and more than a bit arrogant, but maybe you did not consider it sufficiently before making it. But, then we all make mistakes, so I will refrain from taking offense.

Again, we will not know who drafted better, until we see some football. I will not tell you that the 49ers drafted better than any team until the teams have played.
But, I can tell you that I do not think the Vikings drafted better than the 49ers.

Two of the the first four Viking picks are potential problems. I think that Xavier Rhodes and Gerald Hodges will be solid players, but there are doubts about the ability of Sharrif Floyd and Cordarrelle Patterson to acclimatize to the the NFL>

Sharrif Floyd dropped like a rock in this draft. Draft prognosticators and pundits, almost universally, placed him at the top of the draft.
The fact that so many teams passed upon him is a clear indications that he has blemishes that were not readily apparent.

His sack production ratio, a metric that measures a players sacks and tackles for a loss was not among the elite. Floyd had a 0.77.
The defensive linemen that had better production ratios were Devin Taylor, Margus Hunt, Jared Smith, Kawann Short, Brandon Williams, Datone Jones, Sly Williams, and Montori Hughes.

His ranking on the Explosive Power index was not among the elite. Floyd's rating was 0.95. A ratio of 1.00 is considered elite.
There were at least 9 defensive linemen who were better.

Cordarrelle Patterson, the top rated wide receiver by most draft ranking experts, also dropped in the draft.
His drop was not as surprising as Floyd's, but it was a major decent. Patterson's production as a wide receiver was hardly elite.
He has the hallmarks of a one year wonder.

But, let's face it, both players have the potential raw talent to have been taken much higher than they were.
My suspicion is that their intangibles put teams off and put them off quite considerably in the case of Floyd.

So, even without seeing the teams play, I have to consider the Viking draft more than a little risky.

There are no indications that that players selected by the 49ers are marked by poor intangibles.
There is no indication that Reid or Carradine lack the skill set or the mental attributes that are required in the NFL.
Carradine did pass the medical evaluation of the team and at this point there is no solid indication that he will not be able to produce this year.
Vance McDonald fits well into the SF scheme and given the penchant for SF to run two tight end sets, we can assume that he will play this year.

So, I can tell, and I am telling you, that there is no solid indication that the Vikings drafted better than the 49ers.

We need to be clear I am not claiming that the 49ers drafted better; your claim was that the Vikings drafted better.
If their drafts prove to be equal or San Francisco's draft proves to better my claim is vindicated.

We will have to see.

Now, the question before us is: Am I being honest?

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by Rascal:

Besides, I doubt anyone (if being honest) can tell me, the Vikings and the Rams didn't draft better than the 9ers.

This remark seems insulting and more than a bit arrogant, but maybe you did not consider it sufficiently before making it. But, then we all make mistakes, so I will refrain from taking offense.

Again, we will not know who drafted better, until we see some football. I will not tell you that the 49ers drafted better than any team until the teams have played.
But, I can tell you that I do not think the Vikings drafted better than the 49ers.

Two of the the first four Viking picks are potential problems. I think that Xavier Rhodes and Gerald Hodges will be solid players, but there are doubts about the ability of Sharrif Floyd and Cordarrelle Patterson to acclimatize to the the NFL>

Sharrif Floyd dropped like a rock in this draft. Draft prognosticators and pundits, almost universally, placed him at the top of the draft.
The fact that so many teams passed upon him is a clear indications that he has blemishes that were not readily apparent.

His sack production ratio, a metric that measures a players sacks and tackles for a loss was not among the elite. Floyd had a 0.77.
The defensive linemen that had better production ratios were Devin Taylor, Margus Hunt, Jared Smith, Kawann Short, Brandon Williams, Datone Jones, Sly Williams, and Montori Hughes.

His ranking on the Explosive Power index was not among the elite. Floyd's rating was 0.95. A ratio of 1.00 is considered elite.
There were at least 9 defensive linemen who were better.

Cordarrelle Patterson, the top rated wide receiver by most draft ranking experts, also dropped in the draft.
His drop was not as surprising as Floyd's, but it was a major decent. Patterson's production as a wide receiver was hardly elite.
He has the hallmarks of a one year wonder.

But, let's face it, both players have the potential raw talent to have been taken much higher than they were.
My suspicion is that their intangibles put teams off and put them off quite considerably in the case of Floyd.

So, even without seeing the teams play, I have to consider the Viking draft more than a little risky.

There are no indications that that players selected by the 49ers are marked by poor intangibles.
There is no indication that Reid or Carradine lack the skill set or the mental attributes that are required in the NFL.
Carradine did pass the medical evaluation of the team and at this point there is no solid indication that he will not be able to produce this year.
Vance McDonald fits well into the SF scheme and given the penchant for SF to run two tight end sets, we can assume that he will play this year.

So, I can tell, and I am telling you, that there is no solid indication that the Vikings drafted better than the 49ers.

We need to be clear I am not claiming that the 49ers drafted better; your claim was that the Vikings drafted better.
If their drafts prove to be equal or San Francisco's draft proves to better my claim is vindicated.

We will have to see.

Now, the question before us is: Am I being honest?

I quite like the trio of 1st rounders Minnesota was able to snag. I think they are all great fits there and perhaps even more likely to succeed than they would have been elsewhere. With the possible exception of Patterson, who would probably be better off with a better quarterback. I like the pick because I think he can do a lot of the things Harvin did last year and produce even without a good QB and despite being raw.

I'm not disagreeing with the thrust of your post, that being that one can honestly say the Vikings didn't draft better than the 49ers. But I think I'm more bullish on their three marquee picks than you are.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Hey MD, thoughts on raw pass rushers? You missed on Aldon and JPP, and Ansah barely cracked your top 50 this year (TBD on him, of course).

Didn't miss on Smith. He was my second ranked OLB after Miller. I didn't see his value at 7, thus the grade I posted at that time.

I do not agree. I think you missed, and by far on Smith.

Well, at least that is my take, and if I remember correctly you have acknowledged that you missed on your evaluation of him.

I thought this discussion had ended. But, my memory could be, and often is, faulty.

Here is your draft evaluation of Smith. Do you still argue that you did not miss?


First Round- Aldon Smith- C grade

"Smith was the best OLB left on the board when the Niners selected. He does present a need for the team. However, the team intended on selecting a QB along the way, and missed on grabbing the best one in the draft, Blaine Gabbert. Instead, the team selected Colin Kaepernick, who may not be the best fit for the WCO.

As for Smith, he is a good straight ahead rush backer. At the same time, he is not an elite athlete, which is what you want from a guy this high on the board. Smith's shuttle numbers at the combine, which show change of direction skills, was amongst the worst for the DE class. He only pressed the bar 20 times, which is not horrible for a guy with a long wingspan, but still mediocre. Smith's long jump, which measures explosiveness, was average, and his cone time was poor.

So, while he posted good numbers at Missouri, and certainly has a big upside, the current Smith is not an elite Smith, and to me, too risky for the 7th overall. Can he be great? Maybe. But, once again, the team is not drafting in the 15th, or 20th, or 25th spot. This is the 7th overall. Just not good value."

You gave him a C. Clearly, he was a A.

You claimed he was not a good value at 7. He was a good value at 7.

You seem to imply that the team should have taken Blaine Gabbert instead of Aldon.

Based upon two years of play by both players, we should not have taken Gabbert with 7.

Again, like I said, I had thought before reading the above quoted response that you had conceded that you had missed on Aldon Smith.

Aldon in the 1st and Colin in the 2nd is an All-Time great piece of drafting, simply genius. You could make a case for Watt instead of Aldon but we were desperate for a pure pass rusher, we nailed that draft through the mattress.

Originally posted by SofaKing:
Haha..I know I'm being Cpt. Obvious here. I just find it funny when people truly believe they know better than Baalke, especially with his strong draft record. There is a reason we've built the most talented roster in the league.

up to this draft he had only had 2 classes to his name....and last years sucked

I didn't read all 17 pages and this may have been mentioned but moving from #31 to #18 was worth more then the #74 pick we gave Dallas. If you go by the value chart our late second rounder would've have been close to equal value. Now way were we moving from #31 to #14 for anything less then a secound round pick.

Originally posted by jreff22:
up to this draft he had only had 2 classes to his name....and last years sucked

Completely jumping the gun, on last years draft. All those players except for Slowey are currently still on the team and the rest of them eventually made the 53 except for Fleming(hurt), that's pretty good on an absolutely load team. We also picked up the extra 3, 5, 6, and 7 draft picks setting us up for this past draft.

We were red shirting a lot of players, so we didn't get to see them...we had no need to see most of them. Jenkins obviously could've of stepped up, but that didn't happen, WR is notoriously a hard transition. We will get a better feel this year for this draft..Jenkins could flop(but maybe he breaks out), James is good, Looney and Robinson could ultimately have starting roles, Fleming, Cam Johnson? we just don't know. Bottom line is e will get a better feel this year for this draft. Way too early to say last year sucked. Definitely no instant dividends though.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Why dont you ask him this way... would you rather have drafted Hunter at 34 or have moved down and drafted Tank Carradine and gotten a 3rd next year.

Hunter's my favorite for biggest bust of this NFL draft. Just not convinced that he'll have success that next level, great physical traits, but football-wise, he carries the same traits as many previous WR busts.

Why is that ?

You mean Hunter is an even bigger bust than AJ Jenkins ? Is that what you are saying ?

At least one thing for sure, Hunter's draft value was right there cos the Titans used our 34th pick to select exactly Justin Hunter.

Originally posted by buck:
I do not agree. I think you missed, and by far on Smith.

Well, at least that is my take, and if I remember correctly you have acknowledged that you missed on your evaluation of him.

I thought this discussion had ended. But, my memory could be, and often is, faulty.

Here is your draft evaluation of Smith. Do you still argue that you did not miss?


First Round- Aldon Smith- C grade

"Smith was the best OLB left on the board when the Niners selected. He does present a need for the team. However, the team intended on selecting a QB along the way, and missed on grabbing the best one in the draft, Blaine Gabbert. Instead, the team selected Colin Kaepernick, who may not be the best fit for the WCO.

As for Smith, he is a good straight ahead rush backer. At the same time, he is not an elite athlete, which is what you want from a guy this high on the board. Smith's shuttle numbers at the combine, which show change of direction skills, was amongst the worst for the DE class. He only pressed the bar 20 times, which is not horrible for a guy with a long wingspan, but still mediocre. Smith's long jump, which measures explosiveness, was average, and his cone time was poor.

So, while he posted good numbers at Missouri, and certainly has a big upside, the current Smith is not an elite Smith, and to me, too risky for the 7th overall. Can he be great? Maybe. But, once again, the team is not drafting in the 15th, or 20th, or 25th spot. This is the 7th overall. Just not good value."

You gave him a C. Clearly, he was a A.

You claimed he was not a good value at 7. He was a good value at 7.

You seem to imply that the team should have taken Blaine Gabbert instead of Aldon.

Based upon two years of play by both players, we should not have taken Gabbert with 7.

Again, like I said, I had thought before reading the above quoted response that you had conceded that you had missed on Aldon Smith.

I think maddog has been over this a million times. He's admitted to being off on Aldon's evaluation but in his defense I believe his guy was JJ Watt NOT Gabbert. Hard to fault the guy on that. JJ Watt is a beast and while this may be blasphemy here I think he's a better talent than Aldon. Granted by a very slim margin but damn he's pretty good!

Originally posted by Rascal:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Why dont you ask him this way... would you rather have drafted Hunter at 34 or have moved down and drafted Tank Carradine and gotten a 3rd next year.

Hunter's my favorite for biggest bust of this NFL draft. Just not convinced that he'll have success that next level, great physical traits, but football-wise, he carries the same traits as many previous WR busts.

Why is that ?

You mean Hunter is an even bigger bust than AJ Jenkins ? Is that what you are saying ?

At least one thing for sure, Hunter's draft value was right there cos the Titans used our 34th pick to select exactly Justin Hunter.

it is way premature to call aj jenkins a bust..i think he will be a rductive player for niners this year...players dont always adapt to the pro game right away, and receivers traditionally tend to take longer to do so...jenkins had 0 catches his 1st year at illinois, had 90 his last year...

Originally posted by mebemused:
Every year, I learn as much from MD's amateur efforts to educate us on the draft as from professional commentators who get paid to do the same job. Thanks MD! And kudos for standing by your picks when Baalke does something different.

We all agree that grading a just completed draft is a fool's errand, but we do it anyway because training camp doesn't even start for a couple of months.

An assumption that MD makes in submitting his picks is no trading. As a pre-draft predictor you have to do this otherwise there are so many variations in the actual draft order (with trades) that there is no longer a basis for comparison between mock A and mock B. If you want to have a conversation about who to pick where, the only way to have that conversation is to assume no trading.

But we all know that the actual draft is full of trades. When MD compares his static picks to Baalke's dynamic picks (with trades), you have an apples to oranges comparison.

Consider Baalke trading up 6 spots, right in front of Seattle, to pick Vance McDonald TE. If you watch the NFL draft live feed, while waiting for the 55th selection, Chris Berman says that there have been a couple of trades at 55. The 49ers move up and select Vance McDonald, and Seattle trades down from pick 56. It was the speed with which Seattle traded down that caught my eye. Seattle wasn't even on the clock yet, at 56.

Seattle was also looking for a TE. In fact, Seattle drafted McDonald's teammate at Rice, Luke Willson, in the 5th round:
http://q13fox.com/2013/04/27/seahawks-2013-draft-rewind/#ixzz2S0QEOYen

While I'm not privy to either Seattle's or the 49er's war rooms, it looks to me like Baalke anticipated that Seattle might take McDonald at 56. And the "proof" is the fact that Seattle traded out of 56 before their time on the clock began. Both Seattle and the 49ers were scouting Rice TEs, so they likely noticed each others interests. Perhaps Seattle had Luke Wilson graded higher than Vance McDonald, but that isn't likely using MD's Big Board (Luke Wilson isn't on MD's Big Board.)

From MD's perspective, trading for Vance McDonald wastes a pick and there was a player of higher value waiting for us at 61. From Baalke's perspective, Seattle and the 49ers liked McDonald, and Baalke had a 6th round pick to burn to get the top rated player on his board. And as an added bonus, perhaps deprive Seattle of TE that they had scouted. Hence the apples and oranges comparison with the inevitable disagreements of who should have been picked where.

Lastly, both Seattle and the 49ers have stacked rosters. If they stay healthy, they will meet each other in the NFC champions game. What are the odds that a 5th round or latter player will make the roster? Even with the average NFL roster, i'm guessing less than 50%. With a stacked roster, much less. MD's static approach takes BPA at each draft slot. Baalke's dynamic, wheeling and dealing approach, accepts that the odds are small for a late round draftee making the team, and uses those late round picks to maximize the value of his early picks who are more likely to make the team.

Since 3 years is a long wait to settle the matter, I'm looking forward to training camp to get a first look at our 2013 draftees, and a better look at our 2012 draftees.

Very astute observations. It seems like the Niners and Seahawks have similar interests in players: Both seemed very interested in Bruce Irvin last year with their first round pick. It could be an overlap between the Scot years and Baalke years, or simply the random nature of two teams crossing paths on similar players.

You are right in saying it gets messy once trades happen to make selections. Under the path the Niners established in moving up to 18, it greatly alters my non-trade draft, since I go Tyler Eifert at 18. It still would have selected Carradine at 40, but then it begins to go in a different direction.

Originally posted by dhp318:
I think you took my post too seriously

My apologies.

Originally posted by Rascal:
Hey MadDog, do you consider giving away Justin Hunter at 34th a huge miss on our part ?

I do. Even though my draft and Baalke's draft overlap on Patton, I think Hunter would have been a huge piece of the puzzle for us at WR. I graded him as my number two WR in this class and the 24th best overall player in this draft.

I think the club will look back in a few years and would be happy to switch Reid for Hunter. In my book, he will be the stud Tennessee WR from this class, not Patterson.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Hunter's my favorite for biggest bust of this NFL draft. Just not convinced that he'll have success that next level, great physical traits, but football-wise, he carries the same traits as many previous WR busts.

We part on Hunter. I think Patterson is the bust in waiting. Comparing the two in college, Hunter was the star, was so much more productive. I see this trend continuing in the NFL.

All of that being said, I am the least comfortable at analyzing WRs more than any other position. To me, it is witchcraft trying to figure out which guys make it or not. I feel much more comfortable projecting the big guys.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
I think the Niners would have drafted Carradine and Cyprien if they had not traded up.

If the order was Cyprien and Carradine. Cyprien was selected by the Jags at 33.

I would have gone Carradine at 31 and then been skunked by the Jags at 33, since I had Cyprien at 17 on my BPA board and Hunter at 24. Hunter was next best undrafted and of need and in right scheme.