MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:

Hey MD, thoughts on raw pass rushers? You missed on Aldon and JPP, and Ansah barely cracked your top 50 this year (TBD on him, of course).

Didn't miss on Smith. He was my second ranked OLB after Miller. I didn't see his value at 7, thus the grade I posted at that time.

I think MD is one of the best resources out there, honestly. One on end of the spectrum you have the big name guys like Kiper, McShay, and Mayock. They can be fun to listen to during the draft, but honestly they don't put out much content in the weeks prior. Putting aside hit/miss ratio (and on that count I tend to trust MD when he says he stacks up well against the experts), MD is on of the main reasons this Draft War Room is a more enjoyable pre-draft resource than ESPN, CBS, NFL.com, Bleacher Report, Walter Football, etc. etc.

MD, you should put out more content too. I feel like you probably have a BPA board up to 100 or 200 in your files, and yet you only give us 50. You could also write up little scouting reports (just a couple paragraphs each) that rival the ones on CBS and NFL.com that I relied on this year.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Hey MD, thoughts on raw pass rushers? You missed on Aldon and JPP, and Ansah barely cracked your top 50 this year (TBD on him, of course).

Didn't miss on Smith. He was my second ranked OLB after Miller. I didn't see his value at 7, thus the grade I posted at that time.

Fair enough. I'm in your corner.

Putting Aldon aside I guess JPP and Ansah are more comparable. I am just curious if seeing JPP become a star despite being so inexperienced tempted you to give Ansah the benefit of the doubt, or what the reasons are you think Ansah is a likely bust.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If you want to Hesd that direction, it is a slippery slope, since the two players selected after AJ Jenkins and LaMichsel James last year were....Doug Martin and Casey Hayward. Let me rephrase your statement to...

If I ever need a reason to doubt Baalke, I just remember Jenkins and James.

Everyone misses, even Baalke.

I think you took my post too seriously

Every year, I learn as much from MD's amateur efforts to educate us on the draft as from professional commentators who get paid to do the same job. Thanks MD! And kudos for standing by your picks when Baalke does something different.

We all agree that grading a just completed draft is a fool's errand, but we do it anyway because training camp doesn't even start for a couple of months.

An assumption that MD makes in submitting his picks is no trading. As a pre-draft predictor you have to do this otherwise there are so many variations in the actual draft order (with trades) that there is no longer a basis for comparison between mock A and mock B. If you want to have a conversation about who to pick where, the only way to have that conversation is to assume no trading.

But we all know that the actual draft is full of trades. When MD compares his static picks to Baalke's dynamic picks (with trades), you have an apples to oranges comparison.

Consider Baalke trading up 6 spots, right in front of Seattle, to pick Vance McDonald TE. If you watch the NFL draft live feed, while waiting for the 55th selection, Chris Berman says that there have been a couple of trades at 55. The 49ers move up and select Vance McDonald, and Seattle trades down from pick 56. It was the speed with which Seattle traded down that caught my eye. Seattle wasn't even on the clock yet, at 56.

Seattle was also looking for a TE. In fact, Seattle drafted McDonald's teammate at Rice, Luke Willson, in the 5th round:
http://q13fox.com/2013/04/27/seahawks-2013-draft-rewind/#ixzz2S0QEOYen

While I'm not privy to either Seattle's or the 49er's war rooms, it looks to me like Baalke anticipated that Seattle might take McDonald at 56. And the "proof" is the fact that Seattle traded out of 56 before their time on the clock began. Both Seattle and the 49ers were scouting Rice TEs, so they likely noticed each others interests. Perhaps Seattle had Luke Wilson graded higher than Vance McDonald, but that isn't likely using MD's Big Board (Luke Wilson isn't on MD's Big Board.)

From MD's perspective, trading for Vance McDonald wastes a pick and there was a player of higher value waiting for us at 61. From Baalke's perspective, Seattle and the 49ers liked McDonald, and Baalke had a 6th round pick to burn to get the top rated player on his board. And as an added bonus, perhaps deprive Seattle of TE that they had scouted. Hence the apples and oranges comparison with the inevitable disagreements of who should have been picked where.

Lastly, both Seattle and the 49ers have stacked rosters. If they stay healthy, they will meet each other in the NFC champions game. What are the odds that a 5th round or latter player will make the roster? Even with the average NFL roster, i'm guessing less than 50%. With a stacked roster, much less. MD's static approach takes BPA at each draft slot. Baalke's dynamic, wheeling and dealing approach, accepts that the odds are small for a late round draftee making the team, and uses those late round picks to maximize the value of his early picks who are more likely to make the team.

Since 3 years is a long wait to settle the matter, I'm looking forward to training camp to get a first look at our 2013 draftees, and a better look at our 2012 draftees.

Originally posted by natrone06:

Originally posted by Rascal:
, I doubt anyone (if being honest) can tell me, the Vikings and the Rams didn't draft better than the 9ers.

Lol I love that! The only way you can disagree with me is if you are lying.... The definition of drafting "better" is drafting better players and as buck said that's yet to be determined.

Of course everything is yet to be determined. Aren't we all talking what is on paper at this juncture ? Afterall, that is all we can do at this stage. So, on paper, are you saying the Rams and Vikings drafted worse than the 9ers ?

Hey MadDog, do you consider giving away Justin Hunter at 34th a huge miss on our part ?

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by dhp318:
If I ever need reason to doubt Maddog, I just remember Adam Carriker.

If you want to Hesd that direction, it is a slippery slope, since the two players selected after AJ Jenkins and LaMichsel James last year were....Doug Martin and Casey Hayward. Let me rephrase your statement to...

If I ever need a reason to doubt Baalke, I just remember Jenkins and James.

Everyone misses, even Baalke.

I think Baalke is like a slugger. He will strike out but only because hes going for home runs. He won't take safe singles or walks.

He has hit a lot of homers for us.

So far he has provided us pretty much all of our pro bowlers/all pros.

Originally posted by Rascal:
Hey MadDog, do you consider giving away Justin Hunter at 34th a huge miss on our part ?

Why dont you ask him this way... would you rather have drafted Hunter at 34 or have moved down and drafted Tank Carradine and gotten a 3rd next year.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Why dont you ask him this way... would you rather have drafted Hunter at 34 or have moved down and drafted Tank Carradine and gotten a 3rd next year.

Hunter's my favorite for biggest bust of this NFL draft. Just not convinced that he'll have success that next level, great physical traits, but football-wise, he carries the same traits as many previous WR busts.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by Rascal:
Hey MadDog, do you consider giving away Justin Hunter at 34th a huge miss on our part ?

Why dont you ask him this way... would you rather have drafted Hunter at 34 or have moved down and drafted Tank Carradine and gotten a 3rd next year.

Not really.

Or may be I should ask was moving up to 18th to get Eric Reid a mistake perhaps since he had Carrandine and Hunter at 31st and 34th respectively.

Originally posted by Rascal:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by Rascal:
Hey MadDog, do you consider giving away Justin Hunter at 34th a huge miss on our part ?

Why dont you ask him this way... would you rather have drafted Hunter at 34 or have moved down and drafted Tank Carradine and gotten a 3rd next year.

Not really.

Or may be I should ask was moving up to 18th to get Eric Reid a mistake perhaps since he had Carrandine and Hunter at 31st and 34th respectively.

I think the Niners would have drafted Carradine and Cyprien if they had not traded up.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by Rascal:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by Rascal:
Hey MadDog, do you consider giving away Justin Hunter at 34th a huge miss on our part ?

Why dont you ask him this way... would you rather have drafted Hunter at 34 or have moved down and drafted Tank Carradine and gotten a 3rd next year.

Not really.

Or may be I should ask was moving up to 18th to get Eric Reid a mistake perhaps since he had Carrandine and Hunter at 31st and 34th respectively.

I think the Niners would have drafted Carradine and Cyprien if they had not traded up.

It's a moot point. They didn't want to stay put and select Cyprien or Hunter. Reid was rated higher on their board, at a position of need, so they traded up to get him.

Originally posted by SofaKing:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by Rascal:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by Rascal:
Hey MadDog, do you consider giving away Justin Hunter at 34th a huge miss on our part ?

Why dont you ask him this way... would you rather have drafted Hunter at 34 or have moved down and drafted Tank Carradine and gotten a 3rd next year.

Not really.

Or may be I should ask was moving up to 18th to get Eric Reid a mistake perhaps since he had Carrandine and Hunter at 31st and 34th respectively.

I think the Niners would have drafted Carradine and Cyprien if they had not traded up.

It's a moot point. They didn't want to stay put and select Cyprien or Hunter. Reid was rated higher on their board, at a position of need, so they traded up to get him.

Obviously

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by SofaKing:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by Rascal:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by Rascal:
Hey MadDog, do you consider giving away Justin Hunter at 34th a huge miss on our part ?

Why dont you ask him this way... would you rather have drafted Hunter at 34 or have moved down and drafted Tank Carradine and gotten a 3rd next year.

Not really.

Or may be I should ask was moving up to 18th to get Eric Reid a mistake perhaps since he had Carrandine and Hunter at 31st and 34th respectively.

I think the Niners would have drafted Carradine and Cyprien if they had not traded up.

It's a moot point. They didn't want to stay put and select Cyprien or Hunter. Reid was rated higher on their board, at a position of need, so they traded up to get him.

Obviously

Haha..I know I'm being Cpt. Obvious here. I just find it funny when people truly believe they know better than Baalke, especially with his strong draft record. There is a reason we've built the most talented roster in the league.