MD was right

Originally posted by pahlerbj:

I believe an update is coming...

Lol. I just saw the stat line and thought the same thing.

Originally posted by AmpLee:
Another monster game from Watt today. What a defensive draft class 2011 is turning out to be.

Pretty happy he is on my fantasy team.

Watt is turning in one of the Bruce Smith years.

Originally posted by pahlerbj:
Aldon didnt get a sack today......he sucks

We should cut him

Rushing to Smith's defense: Although he did not get a sack in 65 pass attempts by Brady, one thing to note: Brady doesn't take sacks; Smith had an INT; two hits and four hurries is not bad.

Of course, everybody is compared weekly to each other, so Smith and Von Miller pale in comparison to what Watt did this week. However, there are two more weeks and games to b played, so there is still fluidity. All of that bring said, Watt is clearly the front runner.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Rushing to Smith's defense: Although he did not get a sack in 65 pass attempts by Brady, one thing to note: Brady doesn't take sacks; Smith had a very important tipped ball for an INT; two hits and four hurries is not bad.

Of course, everybody is compared weekly to each other, so Smith and Von Miller pale in comparison to what Watt did this week. However, there are two more weeks and games to b played, so there is still fluidity. All of that bring said, Watt is clearly the front runner.

Front runner for what? DPOY or sack title?

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Front runner for what? DPOY or sack title?

DPOY. If thr numbers are close on sacks, Watt will be a runaway winner. Smith needs to post another Chicago-like game to win, in my opinion. Watt is simply superior in nearly every major category compared to Smith (tackles, tackles for loss, Passes defensed, etc.).

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Front runner for what? DPOY or sack title?

DPOY. If thr numbers are close on sacks, Watt will be a runaway winner. Smith needs to post another Chicago-like game to win, in my opinion. Watt is simply superior in nearly every major category compared to Smith (tackles, tackles for loss, Passes defensed, etc.).

Yeah, and Watt led his team to an impressive and memorable victory over the Patriots in New England two weeks ago!!! Right.


Oh, wait.

Aldon didn't have a sack last night, but did have a great game, and there were things he did that are not measured in stats. There are also things he did that Watt simply doesn't do--coverage for example, which Aldon continues to demonstrate a capacity to do very well.

I'm sure you will now agree that the Niners were right to take Aldon at #7 even though Watt was still on the board. Aldon presents a constant headache for opposing QBs and OCs, and helps the entire D play better. Watt is a great talent, but when Houston's secondary had some injuries, their entire defense struggled despite anything Watt did or didn't do. He may not even be the most valuable player on the Houston defense.

If they had drafted him instead of Aldon, Watt might have been a replacement for Justin Smith on the Niners. We saw last night that the D can still play at a very high level even with Justin Smith out, as long as they have Aldon in there to draw double teams and create mismatches.

Watt has put up some impressive stats, but I'm not sure that translates to DPOY, especially when there are others with impressive stats who also play a big role on their D and create big problems for opposing offenses irrespective of any stats.

If you read my previous post, nobody is saying that Aldon had a bad game. However, in comparison with Watt's game, it was far inferior. Since these two guys are the front runners, people are going to compare them weekly.

Watt- 10 solo tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 4 QB hits
Smith- 1 assisted tackle, 0 tackles for loss, 0 sacks, 1 INT, 2 QB hits

If you believe that Smith's performance last night was superior, then that is fine. I do encourage you to watch the Texans game, if it is replayed this week on the NFL network.

As for guys compiling impressive stats, nobody is arguing that are other players with nice stats. Geno Atkins has been phenomenal, Justin Smith is having another solid year, etc. However, nobody is in Watt's league right now. First in the NFL in sacks, first in the NFL in tackles for loss, first amongst all non-secondary members in deflections, second against the run for all DL according to Advacnced NFL Stats and Pro Football Focus, and thr highest graded player of all positions according to both of the previously listed sites.

Justin Smith is the benchmark for excellence as a 3-4 DE. He is second amongst all DL in tackles, with 66. Watt has 74. Justin Smith has 3 sacks, Watt has 19.5. Justin Smith has 2 passes defense, Watt 15. Smith has zero forced fumbles, Watt has three. So, even though Smith is having a fine overall year, the benchmark player has been dwarfed by Watt this year.

As for the comment that Watt does not drop back into coverage, that is not accurate. About 4 times a game he drops into coverage. This often leave two OL wondering what to do.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If you read my previous post, nobody is saying that Aldon had a bad game. However, in comparison with Watt's game, it was far inferior. Since these two guys are the front runners, people are going to compare them weekly.

Watt- 10 solo tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 4 QB hits
Smith- 1 assisted tackle, 0 tackles for loss, 0 sacks, 1 INT, 2 QB hits

If you believe that Smith's performance last night was superior, then that is fine. I do encourage you to watch the Texans game, if it is replayed this week on the NFL network.

As for guys compiling impressive stats, nobody is arguing that are other players with nice stats. Geno Atkins has been phenomenal, Justin Smith is having another solid year, etc. However, nobody is in Watt's league right now. First in the NFL in sacks, first in the NFL in tackles for loss, first amongst all non-secondary members in deflections, second against the run for all DL according to Advacnced NFL Stats and Pro Football Focus, and thr highest graded player of all positions according to both of the previously listed sites.

Justin Smith is the benchmark for excellence as a 3-4 DE. He is second amongst all DL in tackles, with 66. Watt has 74. Justin Smith has 3 sacks, Watt has 19.5. Justin Smith has 2 passes defense, Watt 15. Smith has zero forced fumbles, Watt has three. So, even though Smith is having a fine overall year, the benchmark player has been dwarfed by Watt this year.

Yeah, I read your "defense" of Aldon, which, while correct, seems like faint praise when you immediately switch back to your "Watt for DPOY" campaign.

Watt's having a great year, statistically. Aldon's not doing too badly, either.

Aldon didn't have as good a game, statistically, against the Pats, as Watt did, but the end result for Aldon's team (you remember them), was much, much better.

Frankly, last night's game appeared to be one where the leadership of the defense passed, at least in part, from Justin to Aldon. Aldon is capable of contributing to the defense in many more ways than a DE can.

If DPOY is based solely on statistics, Watt may win it.

If its based on statistics and other things, intangibles, value to a team's defense overall, then some others may get consideration, including Aldon.

Either way, my point is that Aldon has proven to be THE RIGHT SELECTION in the 2011 draft for the Niners, irrespective of whether Watt was still available or not. That won't change if Watt wins some individual award at the end of the year.

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Either way, my point is that Aldon has proven to be THE RIGHT SELECTION in the 2011 draft for the Niners, irrespective of whether Watt was still available or not. That won't change if Watt wins some individual award at the end of the year.

yeah even if you make the argument that Aldon was a reach (which i agree it was), after his analysis Baalke felt like it was worth the risk to have high him higher on his big board and to make the call to get him.

I don't believe he got lucky.

Von Miller is every bit the beast JJ Watt is... can't leave him out of a DPOY discussion.

Originally posted by AmpLee:
While MD was certainly right about JJ Watt being a force, he was wrong on his assessment of Smith. But what I'm most excited about was how wrong he was about Kaep. This guy looks to have the tools to be a dominant force at the QB position for years to come. He's got elite size, speed, arm strength. Coupled with intelligence, accuracy, leadership, and humbleness, this guy could be the steal of the draft. I'm really surprised since RGIII and Cam Newton garnered the exact same superlatives, and that we were fortunate enough to land Kaep in the second round. What a home-run. Looks like Baalke knew what he was doing after all.

Really you could say that the entire 2011 draft has proven to be a great one (except for that USC WR, forget his name.) Aldon, Kaepernick, Culliver, Hunter, Miller, Kilgore--that's quite a draft class.

And its true that MD graded it a "C" overall at the time. He has recently stated that he was wrong about his grade, so I'm not here to ridicule him about it.

I will note that draft grades are meaningless, except perhaps as discussion starters.

As far as MD's championing Watt, frankly, I don't believe that at the time of the draft MD had any idea that Watt would have the stellar year he has had this year. Nobody did, or Watt would have gone #1 overall, not #11.

And despite the title of this thread, MD was not right in claiming that the Niners should have taken Watt over Aldon Smith. Watt has had a great year, but Aldon has as well, and he filled a much greater need for the Niners in 2011.

Bottom line: its a team sport, and individual awards might be nice, but they do not compare with that Lombardi Trophy.

Nobody could have expected that a 3-4 DE could lead the NFL in sacks, and make a run at 22.5, nor be number one in QB hits by a wide margin (Watt at 39, Wake second at 28, Smith tied for third at 26), tackles for a DL by a wide margin (Watt at 74, J. Smith second with 66) number one in the NFL in tackles for loss by a wide margin (Watt at 33, Miller second at 25, Lavonte David third at 18, A. Smith tied for fourth at 17), lead the NFL in passes defensed by a non-secondary player (Watt has 15, the next DL has 7; the top LB has 9), lead the NFL by a wide margin of negative plays with 81 (sacks, tackles for loss or no gain, deflections), nor blow everyone away defensively in what Advanced NFL Stats grades as their WPA, which determines the impact a player has in a game.

To me, this is not about being right or wrong anymore for the year 2012. This is about the stuff of legends. We are witnessing the greatest performance by a DL since Bruce Smith. For me, it is simply the joy of watching a player dominate the game.

Stats courtesy of Advanced NFL Stats

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If you read my previous post, nobody is saying that Aldon had a bad game. However, in comparison with Watt's game, it was far inferior. Since these two guys are the front runners, people are going to compare them weekly.

Watt- 10 solo tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 4 QB hits
Smith- 1 assisted tackle, 0 tackles for loss, 0 sacks, 1 INT, 2 QB hits

If you believe that Smith's performance last night was superior, then that is fine. I do encourage you to watch the Texans game, if it is replayed this week on the NFL network.

As for guys compiling impressive stats, nobody is arguing that are other players with nice stats. Geno Atkins has been phenomenal, Justin Smith is having another solid year, etc. However, nobody is in Watt's league right now. First in the NFL in sacks, first in the NFL in tackles for loss, first amongst all non-secondary members in deflections, second against the run for all DL according to Advacnced NFL Stats and Pro Football Focus, and thr highest graded player of all positions according to both of the previously listed sites.

Justin Smith is the benchmark for excellence as a 3-4 DE. He is second amongst all DL in tackles, with 66. Watt has 74. Justin Smith has 3 sacks, Watt has 19.5. Justin Smith has 2 passes defense, Watt 15. Smith has zero forced fumbles, Watt has three. So, even though Smith is having a fine overall year, the benchmark player has been dwarfed by Watt this year.

Yeah, I read your "defense" of Aldon, which, while correct, seems like faint praise when you immediately switch back to your "Watt for DPOY" campaign.

Watt's having a great year, statistically. Aldon's not doing too badly, either.

Aldon didn't have as good a game, statistically, against the Pats, as Watt did, but the end result for Aldon's team (you remember them), was much, much better.

Frankly, last night's game appeared to be one where the leadership of the defense passed, at least in part, from Justin to Aldon. Aldon is capable of contributing to the defense in many more ways than a DE can.

If DPOY is based solely on statistics, Watt may win it.

If its based on statistics and other things, intangibles, value to a team's defense overall, then some others may get consideration, including Aldon.

Either way, my point is that Aldon has proven to be THE RIGHT SELECTION in the 2011 draft for the Niners, irrespective of whether Watt was still available or not. That won't change if Watt wins some individual award at the end of the year.

You're grasping, dude. I know the whole Watt vs. Aldon thing is ingrained in the premise of this thread, but it's time to let go of the notion that Watt's success in the NFL diminishes Aldon's success. They are both superstars, plain and simple.

As for DPOY, I agree 100% with MD, and your rebuttals are weak. You say it shouldn't be based just on Watt's stats but rather on "other things" like "value to a team's defense overall." Well, the body of stats MD has pointed out show, definitively, that Watt has added the most value to a team's defense overall in the entire NFL. There's no doubt in my mind that he's asked to do more things than Smith and is a more dynamic all-around player (don't take this as a commentary on whom we should have drafted, simply an evaluation of their current seasons).

Here's how I see it. If Aldon is the only one to break 22.5, he will win DPOY over Watt because of the prestige that record carries. If Watt beats Aldon in sacks, Watt will win DPOY. If they both fall short of 22.5, Watt will win DPOY even if Aldon edges him for the sack title. The wild-card is what happens if Aldon beats Watt, but they both break the record (of course, this wouldn't be considered a "record" for Watt in this scenario, but imagine 23.0 for Watt and 23.5 for Aldon). Even though Aldon's name would go in the record books, I could see the voters using Watt's number as justification to give him DPOY. It all comes down to sacks at this point.

Whatever happens, keep in mind Aldon is about to follow this year with another dozen or so opportunities to break the sack record and collect DPOY awards.