MadDog's Niners Draft Grade and Analysis for 2012 NFL Draft | Page 15

MadDog49er · 2012-04-29T11:16:56-07:00

Well, another draft comes and goes and time will tell who are the big winners and losers from this weekend. The Niners tried an unconventional approach this year, which may end working out well, or flopping. Once again, a few years down the road, a clear picture of the strength of this draft will emerge. There are many ways to approach my analysis. At first glance, I thought an incomplete grade is warranted. The addition of a third round pick next year, via trade, does add some merit to this draft class. The later rounds won't have the same impact in the grade, but any additional pick is an additional pick. However, going the incomplete route is a cop-out, since this is all fun and games. So, here it is: Round One- AJ Jenkins- A bit surprised with the pick. However, in the last days before the draft, the Rams were all over him, and I almost put him at 33 on my big board. I thought they wanted J. Jenkins more and had AJ after him. Jenkins was the 7th WR on my board, and the 4th taken overall. I think he is a good player, not a great player. To me, he is a solid number two WR in the NFL, but this is not going to happen until year 3. Expect very little impact in 2012. Smooth, quick, runs good routes, and productive, despite a lack of quality QB play. Saw a lot of him since I live in Big Ten country. Grade: F. The reason for the grade is more than the player (because to me, Jenkins at 30 is a C+ grade). It is the opportunity to utilize the pick for the best value. And the best value at 30, was to not stay at 30. Great opportunities jump in front of you rarely in the draft, and the Niners passed on a golden one. Due to the nature of needs-based picks, from 6-21, we saw a complete run on defensive players. Only Tannehill at 8, Floyd at 13, and K. Wright at 20 were selected on the offensive side of the ball. At 21, the Bengals traded down so NE could draft Chandler Jones. The next handful of teams on the clock had OL needs, and to me, this was the time to make a move. The Browns, at 22, from all reports, lost out on K. Wright at 20, and could have been a trade partner. The Lions, at 23, needed OL help. The Steelers, at 24, for sure. The Texans, at 26, as well. So, with the top graded interior lineman in possibly a decade sitting on the board at 22, in David DeCastro, the Niners could have picked up one of the best players in the draft, and at great value. It would have cost a third rounder according to the value of trades around the same pick and according to trade value chart. The Niners missed on DeCastro, which would have anchored the right side of the OL for a decade. Round 2- LaMichael James- Quick, shifty RB who can make players miss, and has potential to make big plays on offense. Rotational, third down back, who will probably play 10 snaps per game. And, therein lies the problem. The team is stocked at RB, with Gore, who is a three down back, Hunter, who is a similar back to James, and Brandon Jacobs. James may get his hands on the ball 3-4 times a game, and I just don't think this is good value for a second round selection. The team could have found a similar type player with even more explosiveness in Chris Rainey, about 4 rounds later. Grade: D. Round 3 Traded- Good negotiation by Baalke. The Colts drafted TY Hilton, who is more explosive than James, but they gave up a lot in moving up. A fifth rounder next year and the pick five picks later. Grade- A Round 4- Another great value trade dropping six slots and picking up a 6th this year and 6th next year. The Dolphins saw Lamar Miller on the board. Grade- A Round 4- A third trade in the matter of ten picks. Team gives up pick for a 3rd rounder in 2013. Panthers desperately wanted Frank Alexander, and I don't know why. Great value trade. Grade- A Round 4- Joe Looney- A pretty good pick under the circumstances. I think the team got burnt in the Dolphins trade when the Ravens grabbed Gino Gradkowski, who I think the team was all over. The best of the interior OL are long gone by now, and the team needs a guy who can come in and compete right now for a starting position. Looney has a ton of experience, is savvy, smart, and is technically sound. He will compete for the starting RG spot right away. That is the upside. The downside, Looney doesn't have much upside, and I'm not sure he will ever reach the level of Adam Snyder. A decent value pick because the team desperately needed a body. I had a list of guys graded higher, but I think pick is alright. Grade- B- Round 5- Darius Fleming- Good football player that is athletic, quick, and productive. Not sure how he fits on our team. I speculate the team will shift him inside to ILB, and he will compete for the primary backup role under Bowman. He provides some insurance in case Bowman does not re-sign with the team in the future. The team had greater needs, and there were better players on the board, so this is a head scratcher to me. Grade: D Round 6- Trent Robinson, Michigan State, FS- Home Run. The Niners get a steal in the 6th with a guy I had a late 3rd round grade. One of the best FS prospects in this draft, Robinson can run with WR's, and is not afraid to tackle. Productive, experienced, and solid instincts. Really outstanding pick.Grade: A Round 6- Jason Slowey- Another terrific pick from small school Western Oregon. Slowey adds a lot of versatility in this draft, as we will be able to play all three interior line positions, and in an emergency, play tackle. Athletic, tough, and raw. Has much more upside than Looney, and Slowey was on a list of six small school guys I predicted the team would select. Brilliant play for a sixth rounder. Grade: A Round 7- Cam Johnson- Edge OLB rusher, Virginia. Johnson is an enigma. Great athletic ability, played in a 3-4 system, has tremendous upside, and is a terrible underachiever. Lacks passion for the game, should be more productive and dominant. Guy with character flaws. However, you are getting second-third round talent in the 7th round, and if he can get his head on straight, becomes a terrific value pick. Could be starting material on another 3-4 team. Grade: A So, as you can see, this is a complicated grade, with the variable of additional productive players next year. In most drafts, the greatest focus of the grade is the first two or three picks, and this was the down part of this draft class. Just not enough bang for your buck, and the loss of a potential Pro-Bowl type player in DeCastro because the team did not make the move up. Late rounders and future picks helped the final score below. Final Draft Grade: C As for my draft board, based on my best player available board, in a straight up, no trade draft, I had: Round One- Peter Konz, C/G Round Two- Mohamed Sanu, WR Round Three- Brandon Thompson, NT Round Four- Malik Jackson, DE Round Five- Vick Ballard, RB Round Six- Antonio Allen, SS Round Seven- Derrius Brooks, CB It has been a fun run. I will gladly take all questions, and time permitting as I shift from this board to real life, I will hopefully get a chance to respond to all. Cheers.

Apr 29, 2012 at 11:30 PM

#211

nw9erfan
Veteran
Posts: 1,497

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Why does everyone always point to Carl Nicks when arguing the dangers of spending too many first rounders on offensive linemen?

Also, has MD responded in this thread yet?

Why does a man climb a mountain? Because it is there....

OK...with all due respect...I guess I will have to spell it out for you...

Look, it is true that Nicks was not a first rounder but the point is....he became a Pro Bowl OG which still translates into a boatload of Benjamins... Get the picture?

In today's NFL, there is a salary cap.

If the Niners had drafted DeCastro and he did turn into a Pro Bowl OG, that would mean the Niners have got to pay 3 Pro Bowl OLmen (Staley, Iupati, and then DeCastro)... Gets a little expensive, no? Yes. That means that to sign all 3 AND get under the cap, the Niners have to sacrifice money elsewhere.....let's see.....perhaps their top 5 defense?.....which if corners are cut, isn't top 5 anymore. Catching my drift?

At times, two and two do actually make four...

Apr 29, 2012 at 11:31 PM

#212

LieutKaffee
Veteran
Posts: 1,988

Originally posted by jreff22:

Originally posted by D-Money:
jreff do yourself a favor and watch that highlight video on you tube, well most players videos are 5-7 min with repeated plays. James goes on and on and on, it's really exciting actually.

It doesn't show flaws and I want to know how the kid is every play, not just his good ones. Every prospect has a reel that shows how great he is....we know that not every kid is great and the majority will fail.

I did read he has fumble issues, major flag IMO. Nobody has been able to say otherwise so I guess its true......

We drafted him to make plays, and he's made a s**t ton of plays. And his "flaws" didn't keep him from being one of the best players in the nation for three years.

Apr 29, 2012 at 11:32 PM

#213

D-Money
Veteran
Posts: 429

Dude watch the video, and tell me if the good doesn't out weight the bad. Im telling you the kid is legit, he had two scary injuries this past year, hyperextending elbows while falling unnaturally, and he has fumbled a bit-but he also carries the ball a lot.And I don't like the fact he didnt have good games against LSU (2011) or Auburn (2010). Those are some negatives for you. But this kid was the number one back, with a great back behind him. The thing I like about him is he's just starting out on punt returns and he is good-great, only room to grow. Some things that I actually went backed and watched in the "highlight video" after Harbaugh talked about his toughness and goal line ability. I found LMJ finishes his runs, he's only 5-8 yet he's dropping shoulders and running over guys. I think the fly sweep inside the five is coming with him from Oregon to S.F. as Stanford(Harbaugh) and other Pac-12 teams couldn't stop him.
JReff go watch a whole game of his on ESPNU then hate, until then you have to do some more homework, LMJ is a beast and fast fast fast fast.

Apr 29, 2012 at 11:36 PM

#214

LieutKaffee
Veteran
Posts: 1,988

Originally posted by nw9erfan:

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Why does everyone always point to Carl Nicks when arguing the dangers of spending too many first rounders on offensive linemen?

Also, has MD responded in this thread yet?

Why does a man climb a mountain? Because it is there....

OK...with all due respect...I guess I will have to spell it out for you...

Look, it is true that Nicks was not a first rounder but the point is....he became a Pro Bowl OG which still translates into a boatload of Benjamins... Get the picture?

In today's NFL, there is a salary cap.

If the Niners had drafted DeCastro and he did turn into a Pro Bowl OG, that would mean the Niners have got to pay 3 Pro Bowl OLmen (Staley, Iupati, and then DeCastro)... Gets a little expensive, no? Yes. That means that to sign all 3 AND get under the cap, the Niners have to sacrifice money elsewhere.....let's see.....perhaps their top 5 defense?.....which if corners are cut, isn't top 5 anymore. Catching my drift?

At times, two and two do actually make four...

Yeah but I'm kind of with MD on this one. Just because we drafted a OG in the 4th doesn't mean that we don't want him to become a Pro Bowler in an ideal world. You hope that all the players you draft become big money players some day. Worry about paying them when the time comes and you actually have to decide which positions to invest the most $$ in.

So, we used our first pick on a WR instead of an OG. If Jenkins and Crabtree both become paid like #1s some day, we may have to part ways with one of them. Star WRs make a hell of a lot more than star OGs. So actually, if I had to pick the position on the team to put the most All Pros, I'd probably go with offensive line since 5 star OL are cheaper than 5 star skill players.

Apr 29, 2012 at 11:38 PM

#215

jreff22
Veteran
Posts: 67,311

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:

Originally posted by jreff22:

Originally posted by D-Money:
jreff do yourself a favor and watch that highlight video on you tube, well most players videos are 5-7 min with repeated plays. James goes on and on and on, it's really exciting actually.

It doesn't show flaws and I want to know how the kid is every play, not just his good ones. Every prospect has a reel that shows how great he is....we know that not every kid is great and the majority will fail.

I did read he has fumble issues, major flag IMO. Nobody has been able to say otherwise so I guess its true......

We drafted him to make plays, and he's made a s**t ton of plays. And his "flaws" didn't keep him from being one of the best players in the nation for three years.

Same can be said for lots of players, Crabtree was one of the most heralded guys coming out of college. I'm not saying he's bad and he wont contribute, I hope he does great and lets us release Dixon and maybe Jacobs. I was just surprised by the pick and the round it happened. Hunter is dangerous in space and has shown to be a good upcoming player. I just don't know how we get enough touches to all these guys? I'm assuming Harbs puts in more pro set plays so we can line up any combo of Gore-Hunter-James-Miller and not show our cards.

Apr 29, 2012 at 11:47 PM

#216

LieutKaffee
Veteran
Posts: 1,988

Originally posted by jreff22:
Same can be said for lots of players, Crabtree was one of the most heralded guys coming out of college. I'm not saying he's bad and he wont contribute, I hope he does great and lets us release Dixon and maybe Jacobs. I was just surprised by the pick and the round it happened. Hunter is dangerous in space and has shown to be a good upcoming player. I just don't know how we get enough touches to all these guys? I'm assuming Harbs puts in more pro set plays so we can line up any combo of Gore-Hunter-James-Miller and not show our cards.

I know I'm overusing this comparison throughout the threads, but look at the Saints. 6th in the league last year with 132.9 yard per game on the ground. And that doesn't even account for the RBs in the passing game.

Jacobs will be an afterthought and get a couple carries per game on 3rd and inches, if that. Gore-Hunter-James will be our stable of RBs. The Saints were also #4 in the league in yards per attempt, while we were 19th at 4.1 yards

Apr 30, 2012 at 12:14 AM

#217

D-Money
Veteran
Posts: 429

Who dat. f**k dat

Apr 30, 2012 at 12:15 AM

#218

nw9erfan
Veteran
Posts: 1,497

Originally posted by strickac:
On Jenkins: he might not become a #1 WR, but I'm comfortable that he'll big a very productive player for us. He runs good routes, has speed to beat safeties, and has solid hands, which is nice to finally have. He gets good separation on crossing routes, which should get him on the field earlier, maybe even in the slot. Most importantly though, he's not diva and he's a hard worker. I think he'll fit in perfectly in the offense. Like Harbaugh said, what can't he do well?

Most people thought very highly of Josh Morgan and Jenkins is a far superior prospect. I think he'll be a huge upgrade as our #2, especially over Ginn. Moss is on a trial basis. If he pans out, that just a bonus. Manningham and now Jenkins vastly strengthened our receiving corps. We're adding a fast guy with reliable hands, who knows how to separate. I like his upside.

As for your grades, I don't follow your logic. We missed on DeCastro, but so what? We missed on Luck also. You had Jenkins as an early 2nd rounder and we drafted him at the end of the 1st. That seems to line up to me. We got a solid football player, with no character issues, at a position of need.

That's a nice pick IMO.

IMO too... The qualities that stick out the most to me is his ability to separate, his hands, and his speed. To me, those are the qualities that a # 1 receiver has...

Crabtree has good hands but isn't considered a # 1 because he isn't that fast and can't get consistent separation.

Apr 30, 2012 at 12:18 AM

#219

DRnSFw
BlessUp
Posts: 68,566

this thread is a reach

Apr 30, 2012 at 12:24 AM

#220

nw9erfan
Veteran
Posts: 1,497

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Yeah but I'm kind of with MD on this one. Just because we drafted a OG in the 4th doesn't mean that we don't want him to become a Pro Bowler in an ideal world. You hope that all the players you draft become big money players some day. Worry about paying them when the time comes and you actually have to decide which positions to invest the most $$ in.

So, we used our first pick on a WR instead of an OG. If Jenkins and Crabtree both become paid like #1s some day, we may have to part ways with one of them. Star WRs make a hell of a lot more than star OGs. So actually, if I had to pick the position on the team to put the most All Pros, I'd probably go with offensive line since 5 star OL are cheaper than 5 star skill players.

Perhaps.....but star WRs and skill players win you some Super Bowls.....just sayin'. You need look no further than the 5 SB trophies the Niners have. Guys named Montana, Rice, Craig, and Taylor....

The skill players are the guys that win those playoff games... Just look at the Giants last year....guy named Manningham.....his key catches help beat the Niners in the NFC Championship game and the Pats in the SB...

More to the point, it is the opinion of you, MD, and quite a few other Zoners that the Niners biggest weakness before the draft was at RG. That certainly may have been a weakness but the Niners' FO felt differently. They clearly felt that the team's biggest weakness was its lack of playmakers....so they went out and got two of them. Kind of hard to argue with that point, yes?

[ Edited by nw9erfan on Apr 30, 2012 at 12:38 AM ]

Apr 30, 2012 at 12:32 AM

#221

LieutKaffee
Veteran
Posts: 1,988

Originally posted by nw9erfan:

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Yeah but I'm kind of with MD on this one. Just because we drafted a OG in the 4th doesn't mean that we don't want him to become a Pro Bowler in an ideal world. You hope that all the players you draft become big money players some day. Worry about paying them when the time comes and you actually have to decide which positions to invest the most $$ in.

So, we used our first pick on a WR instead of an OG. If Jenkins and Crabtree both become paid like #1s some day, we may have to part ways with one of them. Star WRs make a hell of a lot more than star OGs. So actually, if I had to pick the position on the team to put the most All Pros, I'd probably go with offensive line since 5 star OL are cheaper than 5 star skill players.

Perhaps.....but star WRs win you some Super Bowls.....just sayin'.

The skill players are the guys that win those playoff games......just look at the Giants last year....guy named Manningham.....helped beat the Niners in the NFC Championship game and the Pats in the SB...

You kind of help make my point. Manningham is a middling skill player, not a star. Manningham won a Super Bowl. Santonio Holmes caught the winner from Big Ben. You don't need a guy making Megatron money to make big-time plays. You also don't need to go to the same weapon every single time you need that big play.

I loved our draft, so I don't want to harp on getting DeCastro, but I am definitely all about dumping high picks into the trenches. I'm sure as hell glad we did it two years ago.

Apr 30, 2012 at 12:32 AM

#222

jreff22
Veteran
Posts: 67,311

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:

Originally posted by jreff22:
Same can be said for lots of players, Crabtree was one of the most heralded guys coming out of college. I'm not saying he's bad and he wont contribute, I hope he does great and lets us release Dixon and maybe Jacobs. I was just surprised by the pick and the round it happened. Hunter is dangerous in space and has shown to be a good upcoming player. I just don't know how we get enough touches to all these guys? I'm assuming Harbs puts in more pro set plays so we can line up any combo of Gore-Hunter-James-Miller and not show our cards.

I know I'm overusing this comparison throughout the threads, but look at the Saints. 6th in the league last year with 132.9 yard per game on the ground. And that doesn't even account for the RBs in the passing game.

Jacobs will be an afterthought and get a couple carries per game on 3rd and inches, if that. Gore-Hunter-James will be our stable of RBs. The Saints were also #4 in the league in yards per attempt, while we were 19th at 4.1 yards .

You need to look deeper in the Saints stats. Although ranked high the numbers and effectiveness are deceiving

BY OUTCOME
In Wins/ties
ATT-YDS
370-1920

In Losses
ATT-YDS
61-207

BY VICTORY MARGIN
Final Margin 0-7
ATT-YDS
112-426
Final Margin 8-14
ATT-YDS
126-609
Final Margin 15+
ATT-YDS
193-1092

In contrast even if a game is close we still run the ball.
Final Margin 0-7
ATT-YDS
225-952
We actually run more when the game is close oddly enough. NO is running when the game is in the bag. Now looking at their top RB for each game the numbers are funny. Some games the most yards by 1 of their guys is only 22 yards...he gained the most out of the whole group. On average the top guy out of the stable had 59 yards per game. Gore should be getting no less then 80 yards a game the way this team is built. We should be able to get close to 135 a game so that means Hunter/James will be responsible for 40-60 yards a game. I don't want the NO split where each guy gets 12 carries and accumulates 45 yards a game, Gore is a workhorse let him get the yards. Chances are we avg 27-30 carries a game and Gore will be good for 20 so who gets the rest? Working Hunter and James into the mix will be hard because the crumbs are small.

Apr 30, 2012 at 12:42 AM

#223

LieutKaffee
Veteran
Posts: 1,988

I'm going to shy away from the presumption you made that Gore still needs those 20 carries per game. Throughout last year I thought Gore was much more effective in smaller doses. I'm thinking around 15 carries for 70 yards from Gore, 8-10 carries for 50 yards from Hunter, and something like 5 rush and 3-5 catches from James.

There's some hypothetical averages for you. Obviously it won't be that consistent. I think mixing them up will give you the higher YPA totals.

Apr 30, 2012 at 12:56 AM

#224

49ersHeroine
Member
Posts: 167

I love your analysis and think it is very accurate. Any 49ers fans that don't agree. Are just grabbing for optimism. Our 1st round pick set the tempo for the worse draft I've seen out of the 49ers, since the Jim drunkenmiller draft.

Apr 30, 2012 at 1:03 AM

#225

LieutKaffee
Veteran
Posts: 1,988

Originally posted by 49ersHeroine:
I love your analysis and think it is very accurate. Any 49ers fans that don't agree. Are just grabbing for optimism. Our 1st round pick set the tempo for the worse draft I've seen out of the 49ers, since the Jim drunkenmiller draft.

Nice debut.