1st Round Mock (top 17)

I'm going to try a mock with no trades because of the complications that will cause. Also, it should be noted that when making the picks I focus on 4 things (3 main ones, and another one grouped as "other").

1) BPA-I believe most teams look at the player that brings the most to the table talent wise. Sure the Falcons won't look at QB, and the Eagles are not likely to go WR again, but unless a player simply won't find a way to get on the field, I don't think teams can look passed the BPA, and this will always be the most important factor.

2) Need-This is especially important if a team needs an OT, pass rusher, or QB, and will forego BPA to address the need. Cards a few years ago come to mind--as do the niners in 2005. This is often the driving factor in mock drafts--moreso than in actual drafts, I feel.

3) Draft Philosophy-Even though I don't know everyone's draft philosophy, I do know enough to influence certain opinions. Parcels is not likely to draft a WR early, Billecik (and his disciples) like taking front 7 early. Pioli doesn't believe in going to the OL early, and isn't afraid to reach, Al Davis drafts for speed/size, etc, etc, etc.

4) Other-This refers to what kind of leash the drafter is on (win now, or has several years to build a winner), recent year's selections (can the Jags really pick another DE early?), the depth at the position later on (is it worth taking a receiver in the top 10 this year with all the value at the end of the 1st?), team's system (look for the Colts to draft smaller, faster defenders), and the division (niners need to stop big receivers, not small, quick ones, to win divisional games).

so here it is....

1) STL - Suh

This is the classic case of BPA. I had a QB here for some time, but Suh is so far and away the best player that I think this will be the pick. Just a very very rare talent.

2) DET - Gerald McCoy

Need meets BPA perfectly. Detroit's defense is disgusting, and they have no playmakers on the line. OT is needed as well, but Okung isn't going to go over McCoy...just not good enough.

3) TB - Eric Berry

With both DTs gone, the Bucs look at Brees and ask themselves how they can beat him. They then look at Eric Berry, his college stats, measurables, and game tape, and instantly run to the podium. Dez Bryant might make sense as a weapon for their young QB, but Berry is too good. Maybe the best FS prospect to ever come out of college.

4) WAS - Jimmy Claussen

It's simple - Shannahan has learned that he needs a QB to win, and more specifically, he needs a QB with a big arm. Claussen fits the bill.

5) KC - Jason Pierre-Paul

I don't think Pioli takes an OT early. He doesn't believe in it. WR is a possibility, but also not a position I see him spending a premium pick for. For me this comes down to seeing if someone from the front 7 is worthy. JPP has the most upside in the draft, and will remind Pioli of the great LT. It's also not as big of a reach as some might think.

6) SEA - Russel Okung

Anyone else notice how important the OL has been to USC over the years? It just makes sense. Carrol has always put a premium on OL, Seattle just lost one of the great LTs in the game, this is a major position of need, Okung presents great value. Everything just seems to be coming together with this pick. Can this be Bradford? Sure. But I think Carrol will be annoyed at dealing with a QB that has only played in the spread.

7) CLE - Sam Bradford

This wasn't the plan, but Holmgren isn't going to sit by and let a potential franchise QB slip away while Brady Quinn continues to disappoint. Luckily Holmgren understands the QB position well enough to find the right people to teach Bradford the transition.

8) OAK - Anthony Davis

Al Davis loves speed and size, and the big OT has very impressive size. I think Anthony Davis gets the nod over guys like Haden and Morgan because OT is such a need, and his size is so impressive. If he has an impressive workout, you can write this in stone. Oh, and work ethic issues won't be a factor.

9) BUF - Trent Williams

This is definitely NOT BPA, however the need is so great that the Bills reach for an OT that can play both sides of the line and even slide over inside if needed. QB is the hope here, but the 2 QBs with first round grades are gone. Dez Bryant, Joe Haden and Derrick Morgan are better prospects, but OT is a huge huge need for this team, especially with the recent retirement of their starting RT; and so they make the reach.

10) JAX - Joe Haden

This was the toughest pick, but after considering that this is a local kid, the team's history of drafting DBs (and Gator DBs), how good this kid is, the division they play in (Andre Johnson or Payton Manning ring a bell?), the recent success of Revis, Sharper, Woodson and other members of the secondary, and the fact that they just spend 2 early picks on DEs (even though they're both busts), I think this team goes with Haden over Morgan.

11) DEN - Dez Bryant

First of all, Bryant has been BPA for some time now. Second of all, this gives the team much flexibility with Marshall (if, they had not already dealt him). The front 7 could use help from the likes of Dan Williams or McClain, but Bryant simply makes too much sense from a need and value standpoint.

12) MIA - Derrick Morgan

This was another tough pick. This came down to Dan Williams, Derrick Morgan and Rolando McClain. Morgan gets to nod because of Parcell's affinity for drafting edge rushers early, and because of Miami's current situation at the OLB position. Porter is gone. Taylor is OOOOOOLD and likely gone as well. Even though NT and ILB both make a ton of sense, I think the top pass rusher in the draft makes the most sense here. Many have labeled Morgan to be a pure 4-3 DE, but I've also heard that the real scouting community does not necessarily buy into that thought. Also don't be surprised if Grahm is in discussion here.

13) SF - Rolando McClain

I know I know, we have the best ILB in football. Now we will have 2. In fact, between our coach, and players, we will have the biggest collection of top tier ILB in football. So how does that help us? Simple. Leadership. Willis is a monster on the field, but he's reserved in nature, and does not have nearly the football intelligence (known as FBI in the scouting community) that is needed to run a defense. McClain will be the Payton Manning of our defense, and the importance of that simply can't be overstated. Like it or not, I don't think there's much chance this team will pass up on a player like McClain.

14) SEA - CJ Spiller

Seattle needs offensive playmakers, especially if some of their WRs depart. RB is a major need, and even though they got nice production from Forsett, this is a very safe pick whether Forsett is the real deal or not. I don't think a ton of explanation is in order here, because this is a very obvious choice.

15) NYG - Earl Thomas

When you look at this team's offense, there's not a lot that needs to be addressed early in the draft. On defense this team can use help in several places, including the secondary. The Giants would love McClain here, but he's already on the plane to SF to meet his role models in Singletary and Willis. Earl thomas is a ballhawk, and will now have the daunting task of keeping the equally smallish Desean Jackson in check.

16) TEN - Carlos Dunlap

With the resigning of their OL, the emergence of CJ as the best RB in football, the success of rookie WR Kenny Britt, and the solid play of Vince Young, I think this team can lean away from offense at this early pick. Their bigger issue will involve getting to the QB, and or stopping the WRs in their division. Since there isn't much value in the secondary, they look to the DL. This comes down to Dan Williams, Dunlap, and Grahm. Since they've had success there before, the Titans select a questionable player with immense potential.

17) SF - Mike Iupati

This comes down to Grahm, Iupati, and Bulaga. At the end of the day I don't think this team can afford to use 2 1st round picks on LBs, and so they'll have to look another way. Dan Williams was also in consideration, but Franklin isn't as old as people say, and really fits well with this team. Don't think the team will address it's 2 biggest STRENGTHS (NT and ILB) in the 1st round. On the offensive side of the ball a playmaker would be nice, but this is a bit of a reach for Golden Tate, and I don't think anyone else fits the team's needs. Kyle Wilson could make some sense, but might not be the right CB for this division. Soctty values size in CBs, and this doesn't bode well for Wilson. Almost by process of elimination the niners look to Iupati. A massive, and very talented lineman, he will help bring Singletary's vision into reality. He struggled at the Sr. Bowl Game, but many believe it's because he was playing out of position. Look for the niners to try and address the RT spot early in the 2nd round, but go with the BPA here.

Nice mock. I could see things shaking down this way.

I would be happy with McClain and Iupati.

I just can't see the Seahawks not selecting Bradford if he is still on the board. Hasselbeck is nearing the end, he is starting to fall apart physically.

JAX simply has to draft a pass rusher, not matter what, 14 sacks last year isn't getting it done.. I see them taking Morgan or Dunlop.

I don't think we would select McClain, not that he is worth the pick, but like other have said in other threads, we would have way too much invested in inside linebackers. There would have to be a plan to either move Willis or McClain to OLB

Originally posted by Fincham11:
I would be happy with McClain and Iupati.

Yippee ki yay mother fcukers

I wouldn't draft Iupati over Bulaga if both were available at 17. There's is no OT in the 2nd round that could start from day 1 once the big 6 are gone.

I'd rather go with a combination of Bulaga at 17 and guards Jon Asamoah, Mike Johnson, Maurkice Pouncey (OC/G) , or John Jerry (OT/OG) in the 2nd round.

Iupati and Ciron Black, or Ducasse just doesn't sound as good to me.

Lag double post

[ Edited by noobie on Feb 20, 2010 at 22:00:31 ]

When did a guard become more important than a tackle? Bulaga is a better prospect at t than iupati is at g. The fall from the top tier OTs is bigger than the fall from iupati and the second/third guards IMO. While I love McClain I don't think he's the pick at 13.
If Seattle goes qb at 6 they have to a take to protect him with Walter jones probably retiring.

Originally posted by DaveWilcox:
I just can't see the Seahawks not selecting Bradford if he is still on the board. Hasselbeck is nearing the end, he is starting to fall apart physically.

JAX simply has to draft a pass rusher, not matter what, 14 sacks last year isn't getting it done.. I see them taking Morgan or Dunlop.

I don't think we would select McClain, not that he is worth the pick, but like other have said in other threads, we would have way too much invested in inside linebackers. There would have to be a plan to either move Willis or McClain to OLB

As I stated early in the post, the first thing I look for is BPA, and then need. From a BPA perspective I believe Okung has a slight edge over Bradford. Even though Bradford has a higher ceiling, he's also got a much higher bust factor. From a need standpoint I think these positions are neck in neck. Hassleback is clearly passed his prime, while Jones just retired. They must replace both. But what really pushed me over the edge, is that I don't think Carrol will be all that excited about a QB that played in a non-pro style offense his whole life. Even in college Carrol never bought into it, and my gut tells me he wants to stay away from what he's not familiar with--which in this case is the spread-style QB.

As for the Jags, this is based primarily on 2 factors. First, Haden is hands down the BPA. Where as Haden is widely considered to be an elite prospect, Morgan is projected to be a solid, not elite DE, and definitely not a game changing pass rusher. Dunlop simply has too many question marks around him to be a top 10 pick. The second factor is the Jags history of drafting Gators, especially from the defensive side of the ball. Draft habits can give a lot away, and this team clearly has a habit of staying with local Florida prospects.

Finally onto McClain. A) He's likely the BPA. B) Singletary has stated on numerous occasions that if Crabtree didn't fall to 10 last year, the pick would be between Oher and Maualuga. Scotty has also mentioned being interested in Curtis Loften 2 years ago. This team is still looking for a top rated talent to play next to Willis. This isn't my opinion of what they should do, but rather my deduction of what I think they will do based on what I've witnessed. My guess is that Singletary will fall in love with McClain's intelligence, leadership, and knowledge of the 3-4, while Scotty will go crazy over the fact that he played in the SEC. If Trent Williams was on the board I might have to consider need as the primary driver, but since he's gone, and I've been hearing more and more about Bulaga being overrated and lower on team's boards than some may think, I have to go with the best player here, and that happens to be McClain.

I gotta say with this mock,we go Bulaga with the 2nd pick. Mostly because Snyder is so much worse than Baas. Compare how many sacks each gave up and you'll see what I mean. A tackle is just such a need for this team, I have a hard time seeing us leaving the first round without one. Maybe if Spiller fell we would grab him w/ our 2nd pick instead of RT.

Originally posted by DesiDez:
I wouldn't draft Iupati over Bulaga if both were available at 17. There's is no OT in the 2nd round that could start from day 1 once the big 6 are gone.

I'd rather go with a combination of Bulaga at 17 and guards Jon Asamoah, Mike Johnson, Maurkice Pouncey (OC/G) , or John Jerry (OT/OG) in the 2nd round.

Iupati and Ciron Black, or Ducasse just doesn't sound as good to me.

What I've been hearing is that teams aren't really all that high on Bulaga, and he's actually not the elite prospect many have made him out to seem. In fact, many scouts believe that his performance against GT wasn't all that impressive. Sure OT is a bigger need than OG, but this comes down to a dominant OG vs an avg OT.

Originally posted by noobie:
When did a guard become more important than a tackle? Bulaga is a better prospect at t than iupati is at g. The fall from the top tier OTs is bigger than the fall from iupati and the second/third guards IMO. While I love McClain I don't think he's the pick at 13.
If Seattle goes qb at 6 they have to a take to protect him with Walter jones probably retiring.

I'm not sure if that's true. What are you basing that on?

Also, I have Seattle going with an OT, not a QB at 6.

Originally posted by DesiDez:
I wouldn't draft Iupati over Bulaga if both were available at 17. There's is no OT in the 2nd round that could start from day 1 once the big 6 are gone.

I'd rather go with a combination of Bulaga at 17 and guards Jon Asamoah, Mike Johnson, Maurkice Pouncey (OC/G) , or John Jerry (OT/OG) in the 2nd round.

Iupati and Ciron Black, or Ducasse just doesn't sound as good to me.

Not sure about taking another ILB. It's an option, but I tend to think I would wish to fix the O line with Bulaga and Iupati. I think Spikes is good for a while and we have already drafted his replacement, surely?

While I agree McClain and Iupati are two of the best at their given positions, there are other positions of greater need. Those picks don't get Singletary the OT he wants so badly...and just about all the top OT's will be gone in the 1st rd. Instead of McClain, if you're going BPA first, I'd want Haden or Spiller...both guys should have immediate impact in areas we need help the most. Agree, Iupati's a beast, but I don't see any way Mac will pull the trigger on any OG that early. An OT, yes, one because that's the bigger need, but it's a position both Mac and Singletary would be totally in synch with. Bulaga, Williams, or even Charles Brown would be good picks...the latter because I've just learned he excels at zone blocking, which Coach Solari will implement this off-season.

Although I do believe we need a future replacement for Spikes I don't believe McClain is the answer. I just don't think its smart for the organization to tie up that much money to our ILB positions, especially since the organization still needs to extend PW's contract. Plus I have a feeling Brandon Spikes will be around in the second round and I think he would provide better value at that pick. I say stick to CJ and Bulaga in the first round.