Week 17 NFL Draft Scenarios (and who to root for)

nickbradley · 2009-12-30T13:18:51-08:00

Below is a "who to root for guide for week 17 with the odds: Game // Who to Root for // Odds SF @ STL // Go Niners…can't lose to the Rams, no matter what // SF Favored by 7 NE @ HOU // Go Texans! A Win Bumps them to 9-7 // NE Favored by 8 ATL @ TB // Go Falcons! A Win Bumps them to 9-7 // Pick 'em NO @ CAR // Go Saints, for obvious reasons // Off PIT @ MIA // Go Fins! A MIA win puts them at 8-8. CAR and SF pick ahead // Steelers Favored by 3 JAC @ CLE // Go Jags! They'll finish at 8-8. 49ers pick ahead of an 8-8 JAX // Jags favored by 3 NYG @ MIN // Go GIANTS! 49ers and Carolina pick ahead of an 8-8 Giants team // Vikes favored by 8 1/2 IND @ BUF // Go Colts! We played IND and CAR played BUF, but CAR needs help reducing their SOS // Indy favored by 7 CHI @ DET // Go Bears! -- the outcome does not affect our SOS, but if we lose to STL, we pick ahead // Bears by 3 WAS @ SD // Go Bolts! Carolina played WAS, will decrease CAR SOS // Bolts by 7 TEN @ SEA // Go Titans! Puts them at 8-8, behind SF, but ahead of CAR // Titans by 5 BAL @ OAK // Go Ravens! Puts them at 9-7, behind SF and CAR // Baltimore favored by 11 PHI @ DAL // Go (uggh) Dallas! Philly loss decreases SF SOS // Eagles by 3 KC @ DEN // Go Denver! A Bronco loss would put them (Seattle) ahead of CAR // Broncos by 13 1/2 GB @ ARI // Go GB! We played ARI x2 and carolina played them once -- responsible for 9.4% of combined SOS // Packers by 3 CIN @ NYJ // Go Jets! A win puts them at 9-7 // Bengals by 9 Below is the draft order if the favorites win (and Car and ATL also win, since there is no line): Order Team 10 // CHI 7-9 // 492 11 // CAR 7-9 // 550* 12 // MIA 7-9 // 554* 13 // SF 8-8 // 483 14 // JAX 8-8 // 492 15 // HOU 8-8 // 517 16 // NYJ 8-8 // 525 17 // NYG 8-8 // 542 18 // TEN 8-8 // 546 19 // PIT 9-7 // 479 20 // ATL 9-7 // 508 21 // BAL 9-7 // 521 22 // DEN 9-7 // 529 If Miami ends up winning, we move up a spot to #12. So, IF the FAVORITES WIN, we pick 11 OR 12 and 13; I do not know whether CAR or MIA will have the league's highest SOS The Worst-Case Scenario is if Carolina Wins. In that case, they could be picking #22, since their SOS is so high; it is unlikely for another 8-8 team to have a higher SOS (since CAR plays NO and MIA plays PIT in week 17). But for Carolina to pick #22, Denver, Baltimore, Atlanta, and the Steelers would all have to lose -- highly unlikely, since that would mean there are ZERO 9-7 teams in 2009.

Dec 30, 2009 at 1:34 PM

tjd808185
Veteran
Posts: 26,075

There's 32 teams in the NFL, right? Shouldn't that mean Carolina's pick can at the very worse be the 20th selection?

Dec 30, 2009 at 1:38 PM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by tjd808185:
There's 32 teams in the NFL, right? Shouldn't that mean Carolina's pick can at the very worse be the 20th selection?

No -- an 8-8 AFC team can make the playoffs over Carolina and the would still pick ahead of Carolina. Last year, San Diego picks ahead of 6 non-playoff teams, including 11-5 New England. Stupid that they don't re-stack playoff teams, but that's the reality.

Dec 30, 2009 at 1:40 PM

tjd808185
Veteran
Posts: 26,075

Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
There's 32 teams in the NFL, right? Shouldn't that mean Carolina's pick can at the very worse be the 20th selection?

No -- an 8-8 AFC team can make the playoffs over Carolina and the would still pick ahead of Carolina. Last year, San Diego picks ahead of 6 non-playoff teams, including 11-5 New England. Stupid that they don't re-stack playoff teams, but that's the reality.

Fair enough but it's only mathematically possible for one 8-8 team to make the playoffs this year. Houston and Pitt play each other this week.

Dec 30, 2009 at 1:58 PM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by tjd808185:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
There's 32 teams in the NFL, right? Shouldn't that mean Carolina's pick can at the very worse be the 20th selection?

No -- an 8-8 AFC team can make the playoffs over Carolina and the would still pick ahead of Carolina. Last year, San Diego picks ahead of 6 non-playoff teams, including 11-5 New England. Stupid that they don't re-stack playoff teams, but that's the reality.

Fair enough but it's only mathematically possible for one 8-8 team to make the playoffs this year. Houston and Pitt play each other this week.

Wrong again. Pitt plays Miami and Houston Plays New England. Not a long-shot for both to lose either. Talking to a friend at work who's a Broncos fan (I live in Colorado), the Broncos can still make the playoffs as an 8-8 5 seed if they lose to KC.

Dec 30, 2009 at 2:03 PM

tjd808185
Veteran
Posts: 26,075

Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
There's 32 teams in the NFL, right? Shouldn't that mean Carolina's pick can at the very worse be the 20th selection?

No -- an 8-8 AFC team can make the playoffs over Carolina and the would still pick ahead of Carolina. Last year, San Diego picks ahead of 6 non-playoff teams, including 11-5 New England. Stupid that they don't re-stack playoff teams, but that's the reality.

Fair enough but it's only mathematically possible for one 8-8 team to make the playoffs this year. Houston and Pitt play each other this week.

Wrong again. Pitt plays Miami and Houston Plays New England. Not a long-shot for both to lose either. Talking to a friend at work who's a Broncos fan (I live in Colorado), the Broncos can still make the playoffs as an 8-8 5 seed if they lose to KC.

D*mn you got me again.

But let's be reallistic here those 8-7 teams won't go 0-5 this week so we're not going to be picking 22nd.

The Jets play Cincy and Cincy will rest their players.
The Ravens play Charlie Frey and the Raiders
The Broncos play the hapless Chiefs.

I'm thinking 19th at the very worse.

[ Edited by tjd808185 on Dec 30, 2009 at 2:03 PM ]

Dec 30, 2009 at 2:09 PM

epdavis
Veteran
Posts: 428

Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
There's 32 teams in the NFL, right? Shouldn't that mean Carolina's pick can at the very worse be the 20th selection?

No -- an 8-8 AFC team can make the playoffs over Carolina and the would still pick ahead of Carolina. Last year, San Diego picks ahead of 6 non-playoff teams, including 11-5 New England. Stupid that they don't re-stack playoff teams, but that's the reality.

I thought they had chaged that rule after last yr. when the Chargers who made it to the 2nd rd. of the playoffs drafted before teams who didn't even make the playoffs?

Dec 30, 2009 at 2:17 PM

epdavis
Veteran
Posts: 428

Originally posted by epdavis:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
There's 32 teams in the NFL, right? Shouldn't that mean Carolina's pick can at the very worse be the 20th selection?

No -- an 8-8 AFC team can make the playoffs over Carolina and the would still pick ahead of Carolina. Last year, San Diego picks ahead of 6 non-playoff teams, including 11-5 New England. Stupid that they don't re-stack playoff teams, but that's the reality.

I thought they had chaged that rule after last yr. when the Chargers who made it to the 2nd rd. of the playoffs drafted before teams who didn't even make the playoffs?

I was right the rule was changed

The draft order for playoff teams was reworked and will be based on where teams were eliminated in the postseason. Last season, the Chargers (8-8) beat the Colts (12-4) in a wild-card game, but San Diego will pick before Indianapolis in next month's draft. The new procedure begins in 2010.

Dec 30, 2009 at 2:19 PM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by tjd808185:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
There's 32 teams in the NFL, right? Shouldn't that mean Carolina's pick can at the very worse be the 20th selection?

No -- an 8-8 AFC team can make the playoffs over Carolina and the would still pick ahead of Carolina. Last year, San Diego picks ahead of 6 non-playoff teams, including 11-5 New England. Stupid that they don't re-stack playoff teams, but that's the reality.

Fair enough but it's only mathematically possible for one 8-8 team to make the playoffs this year. Houston and Pitt play each other this week.

Wrong again. Pitt plays Miami and Houston Plays New England. Not a long-shot for both to lose either. Talking to a friend at work who's a Broncos fan (I live in Colorado), the Broncos can still make the playoffs as an 8-8 5 seed if they lose to KC.

D*mn you got me again.

But let's be reallistic here those 8-7 teams won't go 0-5 this week so we're not going to be picking 22nd.

The Jets play Cincy and Cincy will rest their players.
The Ravens play Charlie Frey and the Raiders
The Broncos play the hapless Chiefs.

I'm thinking 19th at the very worse.

You're right -- this would be the first year, I think EVER, where there are no 9-7 finishers if all went 0-5/ No looking at matchups.

The bookies have the Bengals by 9, which says something.

With the Pats and Bengals tied for the 3 seed (3 tiebreakers down!), it comes down to strength of schedule, which the Pats have the edge.

So if the Patriots win, the Bengals will sit their starters -- the Pats will have already clinched the 3 seed. But if the Pats lose, the Bengals will play all their starters.

Even if the Pats win, the Bengals could play their starters to stay 'fresh'.

Buit for the other games, only the Steelers play a tough game.

Dec 30, 2009 at 2:22 PM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by epdavis:
Originally posted by epdavis:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
There's 32 teams in the NFL, right? Shouldn't that mean Carolina's pick can at the very worse be the 20th selection?

No -- an 8-8 AFC team can make the playoffs over Carolina and the would still pick ahead of Carolina. Last year, San Diego picks ahead of 6 non-playoff teams, including 11-5 New England. Stupid that they don't re-stack playoff teams, but that's the reality.

I thought they had chaged that rule after last yr. when the Chargers who made it to the 2nd rd. of the playoffs drafted before teams who didn't even make the playoffs?

I was right the rule was changed

The draft order for playoff teams was reworked and will be based on where teams were eliminated in the postseason. Last season, the Chargers (8-8) beat the Colts (12-4) in a wild-card game, but San Diego will pick before Indianapolis in next month's draft. The new procedure begins in 2010.

That only says playoff teams re-order. It doesn't say anything about non-playoff teams. There's been a long-standing rule that SB teams have the last two picks, but a Conf Championship game lose could pick before a division round winner -- that is what they corrected.

Dec 30, 2009 at 2:28 PM

#10

tjd808185
Veteran
Posts: 26,075

Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by epdavis:
Originally posted by epdavis:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
There's 32 teams in the NFL, right? Shouldn't that mean Carolina's pick can at the very worse be the 20th selection?

No -- an 8-8 AFC team can make the playoffs over Carolina and the would still pick ahead of Carolina. Last year, San Diego picks ahead of 6 non-playoff teams, including 11-5 New England. Stupid that they don't re-stack playoff teams, but that's the reality.

I thought they had chaged that rule after last yr. when the Chargers who made it to the 2nd rd. of the playoffs drafted before teams who didn't even make the playoffs?

I was right the rule was changed

The draft order for playoff teams was reworked and will be based on where teams were eliminated in the postseason. Last season, the Chargers (8-8) beat the Colts (12-4) in a wild-card game, but San Diego will pick before Indianapolis in next month's draft. The new procedure begins in 2010.

That only says playoff teams re-order. It doesn't say anything about non-playoff teams. There's been a long-standing rule that SB teams have the last two picks, but a Conf Championship game lose could pick before a division round winner -- that is what they corrected.

If playoff teams re order it means the highest we can we pick is 20th.

Dec 30, 2009 at 2:32 PM

#11

epdavis
Veteran
Posts: 428

Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by epdavis:
Originally posted by epdavis:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
There's 32 teams in the NFL, right? Shouldn't that mean Carolina's pick can at the very worse be the 20th selection?

No -- an 8-8 AFC team can make the playoffs over Carolina and the would still pick ahead of Carolina. Last year, San Diego picks ahead of 6 non-playoff teams, including 11-5 New England. Stupid that they don't re-stack playoff teams, but that's the reality.

I thought they had chaged that rule after last yr. when the Chargers who made it to the 2nd rd. of the playoffs drafted before teams who didn't even make the playoffs?

I was right the rule was changed

The draft order for playoff teams was reworked and will be based on where teams were eliminated in the postseason. Last season, the Chargers (8-8) beat the Colts (12-4) in a wild-card game, but San Diego will pick before Indianapolis in next month's draft. The new procedure begins in 2010.

That only says playoff teams re-order. It doesn't say anything about non-playoff teams. There's been a long-standing rule that SB teams have the last two picks, but a Conf Championship game lose could pick before a division round winner -- that is what they corrected.

I believe that non-playoff teams will get picks 1-20 and playoff teams will draft from 21-32 based on how they fare in the postseason.

Dec 30, 2009 at 2:35 PM

#12

SonocoNinerFan
Veteran
Posts: 17,610

Whether we win or lose our own pick will be between 11-13.

Just root like HELL for the Saints . . . that's the only game that truly matters.

With Steve Smith out I like the chances.

Dec 30, 2009 at 2:45 PM

#13

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by epdavis:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by epdavis:
Originally posted by epdavis:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
There's 32 teams in the NFL, right? Shouldn't that mean Carolina's pick can at the very worse be the 20th selection?

No -- an 8-8 AFC team can make the playoffs over Carolina and the would still pick ahead of Carolina. Last year, San Diego picks ahead of 6 non-playoff teams, including 11-5 New England. Stupid that they don't re-stack playoff teams, but that's the reality.

I thought they had chaged that rule after last yr. when the Chargers who made it to the 2nd rd. of the playoffs drafted before teams who didn't even make the playoffs?

I was right the rule was changed

The draft order for playoff teams was reworked and will be based on where teams were eliminated in the postseason. Last season, the Chargers (8-8) beat the Colts (12-4) in a wild-card game, but San Diego will pick before Indianapolis in next month's draft. The new procedure begins in 2010.

That only says playoff teams re-order. It doesn't say anything about non-playoff teams. There's been a long-standing rule that SB teams have the last two picks, but a Conf Championship game lose could pick before a division round winner -- that is what they corrected.

I believe that non-playoff teams will get picks 1-20 and playoff teams will draft from 21-32 based on how they fare in the postseason.

Doesn't say that anywhere. The referenced issue was San Diego beating Indy, yet pickign behind them.

Dec 30, 2009 at 2:46 PM

#14

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by tjd808185:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by epdavis:
Originally posted by epdavis:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
There's 32 teams in the NFL, right? Shouldn't that mean Carolina's pick can at the very worse be the 20th selection?

No -- an 8-8 AFC team can make the playoffs over Carolina and the would still pick ahead of Carolina. Last year, San Diego picks ahead of 6 non-playoff teams, including 11-5 New England. Stupid that they don't re-stack playoff teams, but that's the reality.

I thought they had chaged that rule after last yr. when the Chargers who made it to the 2nd rd. of the playoffs drafted before teams who didn't even make the playoffs?

I was right the rule was changed

The draft order for playoff teams was reworked and will be based on where teams were eliminated in the postseason. Last season, the Chargers (8-8) beat the Colts (12-4) in a wild-card game, but San Diego will pick before Indianapolis in next month's draft. The new procedure begins in 2010.

That only says playoff teams re-order. It doesn't say anything about non-playoff teams. There's been a long-standing rule that SB teams have the last two picks, but a Conf Championship game lose could pick before a division round winner -- that is what they corrected.

If playoff teams re order it means the highest we can we pick is 20th.

No -- the new rule just means head-to-head playoff game impact draft order.