Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports


San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Football Team odds and pick - Week 14, 2020

Dec 10, 2020 at 11:00 AM0


The San Francisco 49ers and Robert Saleh's defense were exposed by Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in a 24-34 prime time defeat that was never really close. The Niners will remain at their home away from home as they host former 49ers quarterback and possible comeback player of the year in Alex Smith and a streaking Washington Football Team that has won three straight and just knocked off what was the final remaining undefeated team in the NFL. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday December 13th, 2020 at 1:25 pm PST (FOX)
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Line: 49ers -3, o/u 43.5

Washington Football Team
The Washington Football Team has won three straight behind strong defense and the gutsy play of Alex Smith, coming off of a 23-17 upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

After thirteen weeks, Washington is ranked 30th in passing offense defense-adjusted value over replacement (DVOA) at -18.4 percent, 17th in rushing offense DVOA at -7.9 percent, and 25th with 22.0 points per game. Washington's defense is 3rd in passing defense DVOA at -11.3 percent, 10th in rushing defense DVOA at -17.8 percent, and 8th with 21.7 points allowed per game.

Alex Smith is 30th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at -245, 32nd with total quarterback rating (QBR) of 40.8 with 4 touchdowns passing, 5 interceptions, and zero fumbles lost, completing 68.7 percent of his passes. Washington ranks 15th in Football Outsiders' weighted total DVOA at 0.0 percent, 27th in weighted offensive DVOA at -15.4 percent, and 4th in weighted defensive DVOA at -14.3 percent. Washington's offensive line is ranked 27th in pass protection and 15th in adjusted line yards, while its defensive line is 4th in adjusted sack rate and 7th in adjusted line yards. The Football Team is 7-5 against the spread (ATS) and 5-7 to the over/under.

San Francisco 49ers
After thirteen weeks, the Niners offense is 21st in passing offense DVOA at 13.2 percent, 18th in rushing offense DVOA at -8.9 percent, and 20th with 23.8 points per game. San Francisco's defense is 16th in passing defense DVOA at 9.4 percent, 8th in rushing defense DVOA at -20.2 percent, and 13th with 24.0 points allowed per game.

Nick Mullens is 22nd in DYAR at 161, 29th with QBR of 48.8 with 9 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, and 2 fumbles lost, completing 67.4 percent of his passes. San Francisco ranks 14th in weighted total DVOA at 0.8 percent, 20th in weighted offensive DVOA at -3.3 percent, and 11th in weighted defensive DVOA at -4.1 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 7th in pass protection and 28th in adjusted line yards, while its defensive line is 22nd in adjusted sack rate and 8th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 5-7 ATS and 6-6 to the over/under.

Prediction
San Francisco opened up as a 4.5-point favorite against the Washington Football Team but after how bad the Niners looked last Monday, compared to how good the Football Team looked, it's no wonder that money has come in on Washington, shrinking the spread down to 3 points. But would it be recency bias to base our prediction for this game on how the teams looked last week?

We have to admit our own susceptibility to recency bias in picking the Niners the weeks after their strong wins at the New York Giants, New England Patriots, and at the Los Angeles Rams and have discerned some semblance of a zig-zag pattern with their performances. Based on the Niners looking horrendous last week, we anticipate a much stronger performance in Week 14.

Similarly, the Washington Football Team and Alex Smith are darlings of the NFL following their Thanksgiving demolition of the Dallas Cowboys and comeback win to hand the Pittsburgh Steelers their first loss of 2020, and bettors being high on Washington based on the last three weeks has moved this line in San Francisco's favor, but the Football Team could be due for a let down.

Washington had a great spot against Pittsburgh, having last played a blow-out win on Thanksgiving (11/26), while Pittsburgh last played an ugly divisional game against the Baltimore Ravens on a Tuesday (12/2) with less organized practice due to COVID-19, and that situation contributed to Washington pulling off the upset.

But now after traveling to Dallas and Pittsburgh, Washington will play its third straight game on the road, traveling to Arizona to face a 49ers team that was embarrassed in prime time, possibly without starting running back Antonio Gibson who is dealing with turf toe.

Robert Saleh's defenses have struggled at times against mobile quarterbacks and even though Alex Smith has had some ability to scramble in the past, he is no Josh Allen and we expect the Niners defense to be chomping at the bit to get at Washington's 28th-ranked offense after getting relentlessly gashed by the Buffalo Bills.

Nick Mullens actually has a better DYAR and QBR than Alex Smith and in this contest where recency bias is causing the market to overreact to last week and overvalue the Football Team and undervalue the Niners, we will take the side with the most value: Pick: 49ers -3.

2020 Season ATS
4-7

Poll

  • What is your best bet for 49ers vs Washington Football Team on 12/13/20?
  • Football Team +3
    48%
  • 49ers -3
    33%
  • Under 43.5
    13%
  • Over 43.5
    5%
  • 159 votes
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


0 Comments

  • No Comments

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



Updated: San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts odds and pick - Week 7, 2021

By Winston Chung
Oct 19

The San Francisco 49ers will be coming out of their bye week and attempting to snap a three game losing streak when they host the improving Indianapolis Colts in prime time. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective. When: Sunday October 24th, 2021 at 5:20pm PT (NBC) Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California Line: 49ers -3.5; over/under 42 Indianapolis Colts The Indianapolis Colts have won two out of their last three contests, including a 31-3 smashing of the Houston Texans in Week 6. Carson Wentz is quietly proving his doubters wrong with 3 straight weeks of throwing for two touchdown passes and zero interceptions and posted the highest Pro Football Focus grade among all quarterbacks in



San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears odds and pick - Week 8, 2021

By Winston Chung
Oct 26

The San Francisco 49ers' stock continues to drop and the possibility of the playoffs becomes more elusive after losing their fourth straight game. But the Niners do not have time to feel sorry for themselves as they must now travel to the Windy City to take on another desperate team in the Chicago Bears. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective. When: Sunday October 31st, 2021 at 10:00am PT (FOX) Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois Line: 49ers -3; over/under 39.5 Chicago Bears The Chicago Bears are coming off of a humiliating 3-38 loss at Tampa Bay. Rookie quarterback Justin Fields was intercepted three times, sacked four times and unable to facilitate a single



Collinsworth: 49ers a 'power football team' at their best, can recover from 2-3 start

By David Bonilla
Oct 23

Cris Collinsworth hasn't given up on the San Francisco 49ers. The team may be entering Week 7 with a 2-3 record and riding a three-game losing streak, but the NBC announcer knows things can turn around quickly for Kyle Shanahan's squad. Collinsworth will be calling the game on Sunday night between the 49ers and Indianapolis Colts. He was in Santa Clara this week to watch practice. Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area pulled him aside to talk about the Bay Area team, which has struggled to live up to its potential. "They're close," Collinsworth responded when asked how he views the 49ers. "I think that's the only way you can say it, is there's some teams that you look at them, and you go, 'OK, they're definitely not making the playoffs.' I mean, we're already to



49ers reportedly turned down 2nd-round pick from Patriots for Jimmy Garoppolo

By Rohan Chakravarthi
Oct 26

Whenever Seth Wickersham reveals a tidbit from his new book, "It's Better to Be Feared," examining the New England Patriots dynasty, Tom Brady, and his departure from the team, it always seems specifically directed at 49ers fans. And no, I'm not exaggerating. Earlier today, more news from Wickersham's book was revealed via ESPN scout Matt Miller, where it was reported that the Patriots allegedly offered a second-round pick for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo on Day 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft, to which the 49ers said no because they desired a first-rounder in return. The Patriots remained in the first round, selecting Mac Jones with the 15th overall pick, while the 49ers took Trey Lance after trading up to the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL


Featured

More by Winston Chung

More Articles

Share 49ersWebzone