Whether it was the lack of a pre-season, practicing in smoke-filled skies or a real Super Bowl hangover, the San Francisco 49ers appeared to be out of sync in their 20-24 loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1. Now cornerback Richard Sherman has been placed on IR as the Niners head to the East Coast for a 10:00 am PT start against the New York Jets on Sunday. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday September 20th, 2020 at 10:00am PT (FOX)
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Line: 49ers -7, o/u 42.5
New York Jets
The Jets are surely missing safety Jamal Adams, allowing Josh Allen to throw for 312 yards, 2 touchdowns and zero interceptions in a 17-27 loss in Week 1. Sam Darnold threw for 215 yards, with 69 yards coming on his lone touchdown pass to Jamison Crowder, was intercepted once, and was sacked three times. Le'Veon Bell was placed on IR and the ageless wonder Frank Gore led New York in rushing with 24 yards on 6 carries. Prior to the season starting, Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley had opted out due to COVID-19 concerns.
New York has an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of -2.8 and Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating of -14.0%.
San Francisco 49ers
Aside from Raheem Mostert's explosive catch and run for a touchdown, Kyle Shanahan's offense did not seem innovative, Jimmy Garoppolo's throwing was not accurate, and the Niners defense could not contain Kyler Murray's running or DeAndre Hopkins' receiving in a home opener that Niners Empire will be eager to put in the rear view mirror.
Though George Kittle proclaimed he is OK after being taken out of the game for what appeared to be a hyperextended knee, the fact that Kittle did not have a catch in the second half is somewhat concerning and now Richard Sherman's injury opens the door for Akhello Witherspoon, but even he has been reported to be in the concussion protocol.
Richard Sherman isn't the only #49ers cornerback injured Sunday. Per a league source, Ahkello Witherspoon suffered a concussion and is in the concussion protocol. He will take over for Sherman when cleared.
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) September 16, 2020
The 49ers have an ESPN FPI score of 3.5 and DAVE rating of 3.9%.
Prediction
As poorly as the Niners played in Week 1 and despite the valid injury concerns and concept that West Coast teams do more poorly with 10:00 am PT starts, San Francisco is in a prime spot to bounce back against the lowly New York Jets.
The Jets defense is a shell of itself without C.J. Mosley and Jamal Adams, making Josh Allen look like a world beater with both his arms and legs last week, and we expect Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan to get back on track this week, but with injured receivers and lingering questions surrounding Kittle, concerns about the Niners' offensive potency remain.
And despite the significant loss of Richard Sherman, we often see a team step up in the first game after a key player goes down and we expect members of San Francisco's defense to be chomping at the bit to get at stationary quarterback Sam Darnold and wanting badly to get the taste of last week's loss out of their mouths.
These two teams have failed to top 40 points in five straight games against each other and in seven out of their last nine matchups together. We expect the Niners defense to get to Darnold multiple times, limiting New York's offense in a lower scoring game. Pick: Under 42.5
2020 Season ATS
1-0
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