2016 week 5 Arizona Cardinals coaches film analysis thread

jonnydel · 2016-10-11T15:05:02-07:00

Greetings and salutations to everyone! I do apologize for not having this thread going, as is usual, earlier on a Tuesday morning. I was taking my wife to one of her regular OB/GYN checkups as she's about 5 months pregnant with our first baby. Normally, she has those appointments on a Monday, but since it was a holiday, they were close and our appointment was for later this morning. That being said - in the words of the Joker, "here..we...goooo" Overall - losses always suck - they suck more when you keep piling them on - they suck even more when you get outplayed in every phase of the game. Which is what happened. We lost on offense, defense, special teams and coaching. I'll start with coaching first, then move through the rest as I just listed them. I want to say something about the QB issue before it starts because I think we can lose the forest for the trees, sometimes. We're a bad team. We could, obviously, get better production out of our starting qb but I fear we still wouldn't win many games. I'm not saying we keep playing Gabbert, I'm saying we need to realize that this teams problems run much deeper. We gave up another 100 yard rusher - this time the highest single rusher of the season in the league. In the modern NFL teams that allow a 100 yard rusher lose 75% of the time. That's a problem and it's shown to be the real determining factor for if we win or lose. We won the 1 game we didn't allow a 100 yard rusher and lost the 4 games we've allowed them. People say our running game doesn't get going because we're too predictable when we run and the other team stacks the box. At one point, the Cards ran on 12/13 plays. We knew they were gonna run it. We stacked the box. We still couldn't stop them. So, what excuse do we have?? We don't...we suck. We have problems all over the field and we're gonna need CK to play all-world or better to help us overcome so many deficiencies. I thought we actually had the 2nd worst QB in that game. Drew Stanton's numbers were worse than Gabs(save for the picks) and he wasn't facing near the pressure and has much better receivers. Yet, his team was able to overcome his deficiencies. We are simply a bad team. Coaching - I felt like we got out-coached in this game. While we, as everyone is well aware, missed wide open receivers, so did the Cardinals. In fact, I saw more Cardinals receivers that were wide open during the game than there were ours. Bruce Arians had JoN's cards all game long. There were times when we'd have an interior blitz called and they, somehow, knew we were going to smash the middle and ran to the outside exploiting our defense and vice versa. There were times when we tried to crash the edges and they ran up the middle. As far as our offense goes, we still struggled to get a consistent effort from our running game. We still have far too many runs for 2 yards or less and far too many negative runs. I feel Gabbert and Kelly were both responsible for an INT in the game - just not the ones you think. I fault Gabbert on the first one - he should've gotten the ball out to a receiver who was open sooner, and the 2nd one was the result of an absolutely predictable play. I'll show that one. There's a formation we use a lot, but we only threw 4 passes out of it, 3 were the exact same play and the throw went to the same player each time and the 3rd time was when it was picked off. You can't be that predictable in your passing plays in the NFL. The defender was able to easily read the play and intercept the ball. This was something that I talked about in the off-season and is something a lot of people have said. Kelly's offense has complexity to it, just not a lot of volume. You can't go to the well that many times in the game without some major variation to keep the defense off base on you. These plays see the formations, they look at the film on the sidelines and you can't keep going to the exact same play out of the exact same formation multiple times in a game without showing many various plays to keep the defense from knowing what's coming. Offense - Overall we couldn't block well, we couldn't run well, we couldn't pass well, we couldn't catch well - basically....we sucked. We looked great on 2 drives and like roadkill on the others. No one performed well on offense and everyone had a hand in this defeat. Gabbert - Dude is getting benched for a reason. Why he wasn't the sole reason for our offensive problems, he didn't help things out at all. It's sad, because he had a chance to resurrect his career and prove he wasn't a bust and his accuracy problems bit him too many times. It's most sad because this type of offense was one that probably fit his skill set best. However, he couldn't have, "repetitive accuracy". If you can't be consistently accurate in the NFL you won't be playing for long. O-line - without doubt, this was the worst game of the year for them. They let the pocket get collapsed too many times and were never able to get to the 2nd level in the run game, consistently. I never saw Tiller on an injury headline on the plays, so it looked like he got benched at some point during the game. WR/TE - Celek played a terrible game. He had a really bad drop but also struggled with his blocking - not sure if it's his back or what? Our receivers still struggled to gain separation against man-coverage and Ari played a lot of cover 1 with a lurk/spy over the middle. When they didn't, Gabbert made them pay with his legs - but the D-line started to shut that down later or they outright blitzed the QB running lanes. I know T. Smith has gotten a lot of flak for lack of production, but Kelly has to vary his playbook to allow T. Smith some more route options. When we line up with 3 receivers on 1 side, there's 2 route he runs(seriously). Streak or post - that's it. He's gotten open on the post numerous times, but you gotta vary the routes within each formation to help give your receivers more ability to keep their defenders off-balance. You can't expect to line him up against Patrick Peterson with Peterson knowing there's only 2 routes to defend and they're both vertical.... Defense - JoN's scheme has been getting a lot of flak, but his players have also got to execute their assignments. My issue with his scheme is that I feel like he's blitzing too often and dropping 8 too often. We had success against the Rams, mostly, when we played 7 man-coverage and kept things in front of our players. He's running a lot of complex man-blitzes and has dropped 8 men in coverage numerous times over the first 5 games and the only times it's worked is when the offensive players have dropped open passes. He's getting too cute and this defense has morphed into something completely different than when Fangio was here and Mangini. D-line - Our D-line has been getting dominated. I think anyone can see that. It's gonna be a long season and I know we have injuries, but still. If our O-line didn't get a pass last year, I'm not giving our D-line one this year. LB - everything above applies here as well. Carradine and Harold are nearly worthless. They don't hold edges, they don't pressure the QB hardly ever - neither of them are very valuable at any part of the position. At least Parys Harolson was a stud against the run - these guys don't do nothing well. DB - Our outside guys were a bright spot. Brock got burned twice, really badly by Fitz - but it's also Fitz. Robinson has been a great bright spot. Our safeties were supposed to be a position of depth but have been highly underwhelming. Bethea gave up a 21 yard pass to a RB on the only pass of Ari's game clinching drive. Tartt missed some big tackles and Reid didn't do anything game-changing. They were all guilty of things in the game and none of them did anything to really make up for it. Considering these are a 1st and 2nd round picks and a multi-million dollar FA, we should be getting more from them. Overall - I feel like Jim Mora -"we suck...." I'm really hoping CK comes in and is a different QB than what he has been the previous 2 years. However, he doesn't exactly have the cards in his favor. He's got an uphill battle to climb with the state of the team being what it is around him. However, the bar hasn't been set real high. Either way, unless he performs wayyyyy better than what we've seen(and even then, he probably leaves via FA) it's most depressing because we have so many holes to fill on the team and we're going to have to spend a high draft pick on a QB. That means the only way we really improve next year is if Trent overpays from some FA's. Which we have to do because we have far too many holes to fill in the next 2 drafts and none of us are going to be patient enough (nor should we be) to wait that long to have a quality product put out on the field.

Oct 11, 2016 at 3:14 PM

susweel
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Congrats on the baby.

The team

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Oct 11, 2016 at 3:17 PM

jdk8008
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Good writeup as usual. I agree, there are so many things wrong at every level. I keep telling all the Kaepernick people that the grass isn't necessarily greener on the other side. We are going to plug in a QB that has trouble with read progressions with a group of receivers that are having trouble getting open. This is probably going to be a disaster.

Oct 11, 2016 at 3:23 PM

jonnydel
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Posts: 9,410

Originally posted by jdk8008:
Good writeup as usual. I agree, there are so many things wrong at every level. I keep telling all the Kaepernick people that the grass isn't necessarily greener on the other side. We are going to plug in a QB that has trouble with read progressions with a group of receivers that are having trouble getting open. This is probably going to be a disaster.

I'm not sure it's going to be any worse though. When you're receivers are getting open and your QB has trouble hitting them, you aren't going to do well either. Hence why we're 31st in the league. I think, at worst, it'll be a wash. If CK still struggles with the things he has in the past he'll miss some of the throws BG has been completing but will hit some of the ones BG has missed.

I has some belief in Gabs because he does seem to see the field well and passes the eyeball test. He's big, fast, strong arm and when he's accurate, he's pinpoint. The problem is that he's been so wildly inconsistent on a team with very little room for error and hasn't made up for it. He's missed the same throw, the same way, almost every week. It's inexcusable. If it were different throws, different weeks, then I might have more grace. But he keeps missing the double post throws on the inside post high and outside - if you're doing it wrong the same way every time, obviously you're not doing what needs to be done to correct it.

[ Edited by jonnydel on Oct 11, 2016 at 3:24 PM ]

Oct 11, 2016 at 3:37 PM

Overkill
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Originally posted by jonnydel:
As far as our offense goes, we still struggled to get a consistent effort from our running game. We still have far too many runs for 2 yards or less and far too many negative runs.

I was not a Chip Kelly fan before he got here, and I'm not ready to give up on him after a few games. But when you talk about effort in the run game, OL not getting to the second level, etc - isn't at least part of that scheme? Just from a fan's point of view, our rushing attack looks pretty basic. Everyone has to execute on every play in any offense, but it seems like there's less room for error when the playbook is simpler.

Oct 11, 2016 at 3:42 PM

jonnydel
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Wanted to show the last INT and how I put it on Kelly. To do that, you're going to have to bear with me as there's going to be a lot of pics.

Here's a play early in the 2nd quarter. Kelly likes to start out in this formation a lot 3 receivers to one side with the TE on the other and the HB in the pistol. About half the time he'll motion one of the receivers across the formation though. Note that Kerley is the closest receiver inside. This is the first pass thrown out of this formation with Kerley in this position.

We're going to run a mix of concepts. Divide + flood. We have a "divide" concept with the streak/post combo and a "flood" with the streak/D-out/shallow cross.

We run PA first(we run 75% of the time out of this formation) it holds up the LB's and Ari is in quarters cover(i think).

You see the double on the post, Peterson is taking care of Torrey(this is a formation where he only ever runs a streak...) and Marcus Cooper is attacking Kerley's route.

There's a busted coverage at the bottom with the RB - but I think this is designed to go to Kerley(i think...not sure though). We get 13 yards on a completion to Kerley.

This is later in the 2nd quarter. Again, Kerley is the closets receiver in from the same formation. Again, we're going to run divide+flood. This is the 2nd pass out of this formation.

We run PA...look familiar??

Ari is in zone. Your see the coverage on the post, you see Peterson has T. Smith again(again...the only route he runs from this formation....) and the underneath crossing route is attracting the LB to open up the D-Out.

Kerley is once again open. This time Ari doesn't bust coverage on the RB

Don't let the flip of the play fool you. Same formation, just flipped. This will be the 4th pass run out of this formation with Kerley in that inside spot. The next time they threw this formation it was still a flood concept. Kerley ran a hitch-out, so his route was still the intermediate route - no vertical route threatened from this formation. Also, we didn't run any run action fake on that play. Again, you see it's the divide+flood.

PA fake - this time the RB didn't move for the fake because of a blitz p/up assignment. But Gabs still carries out the fake - guess where the ball is going....anyone??? I bet Marcus Cooper knows.....

Look out how they're playing the other routes, they're expecting them. Peterson has no fear of an underneath route, the safeties are jumping on the post and Marcus Cooper is sitting flat footed on the out route - he knows it's coming and baits Gabs. When Kerley starts his break, he looks open. But Cooper knew this route was coming and was ready to drive on it.

He drives to under-cut the route.

The throw was a little behind Kerley, but not much. I don't think it would've mattered anyway. Cooper saw the route coming the whole way. It was the same play, out of the same formation, the 3rd time and there was only ever 1 variation that never threatened deep. Once he saw that PA fake on the throw, he knew where it was going and he knew the route that was coming.

This was a HUGE point in the game. We were down 21-14 at this point and had just stopped Arizona. To me, this is on Kelly the whole way. You can't be that predictable in your formations. If I could catch this watching film. You better believe these guys did when it's their job.....

Oct 11, 2016 at 3:51 PM

jonnydel
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Originally posted by Overkill:

Originally posted by jonnydel:
As far as our offense goes, we still struggled to get a consistent effort from our running game. We still have far too many runs for 2 yards or less and far too many negative runs.

I was not a Chip Kelly fan before he got here, and I'm not ready to give up on him after a few games. But when you talk about effort in the run game, OL not getting to the second level, etc - isn't at least part of that scheme? Just from a fan's point of view, our rushing attack looks pretty basic. Everyone has to execute on every play in any offense, but it seems like there's less room for error when the playbook is simpler.

I think so. It was also a reason I wasn't real high on Tiller in this scheme. This is a scheme that works best if you have fast guards. Tiller has struggled on outside zones/sweeps and it's what has made it difficult for us to run between the tackles. Some it is predictability. Like I showed above. When we're in certain formations, we tend to run 75-80% of the time and it's the same run each time.

Oct 11, 2016 at 3:55 PM

jonnydel
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Posts: 9,410

Well, sadly, this may be all I have time and ability to post this evening. I just got a text from Verizon stating that my new Note S7(the one that was supposed to be fixed...) that Samsung is completely recalling all of them due to, "safety concerns" and that I need to turn it back in immediately for a replacement phone of a different model. That means, since I live in a small town, that I'll be making a 2-3 hour round-trip drive to a verizon store to get a new phone....

Oct 11, 2016 at 5:07 PM

Dsoto87
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Johnny can you speak more about Rashard Robinsons skill set? Hes been a bright spot the past few games but has he been a beneficiary of bad wr/qb play or is he legit? Can you speak to his technique and decision making?

Oct 11, 2016 at 9:38 PM

thl408
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Posts: 33,298

Originally posted by jonnydel:
Wanted to show the last INT and how I put it on Kelly. To do that, you're going to have to bear with me as there's going to be a lot of pics.

Don't let the flip of the play fool you. Same formation, just flipped. This will be the 4th pass run out of this formation with Kerley in that inside spot. The next time they threw this formation it was still a flood concept. Kerley ran a hitch-out, so his route was still the intermediate route - no vertical route threatened from this formation. Also, we didn't run any run action fake on that play. Again, you see it's the divide+flood.

This was a HUGE point in the game. We were down 21-14 at this point and had just stopped Arizona. To me, this is on Kelly the whole way. You can't be that predictable in your formations. If I could catch this watching film. You better believe these guys did when it's their job.....

Good cut ups to show the lead up to the INT. To increase the chances of pulling this off it has to be up tempo, in the middle of a drive. Not sure how those plays were run, but by the 4th quarter ARI had to have broken down that play because it was one of the few plays that worked for the 49ers. 49ers pushed their luck running it this many times. I think there's less formations with 11 personnel (1rb/1te) compared to 12 (1rb/2te). You can split another TE out wide. Can't put a WR inline to block.

Oct 11, 2016 at 9:47 PM

#10

SofaKing
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Posts: 27,442

Originally posted by jonnydel:
I was taking my wife to one of her regular OB/GYN checkups as she's about 5 months pregnant with our first baby. Normally, she has those appointments on a Monday, but since it was a holiday, they were close and our appointment was for later this morning.

Congrats on the baby, jonnydel! That is great news.

Now back to football lol

Originally posted by jonnydel:
D-line - Our D-line has been getting dominated. I think anyone can see that. It's gonna be a long season and I know we have injuries, but still. If our O-line didn't get a pass last year, I'm not giving our D-line one this year.

This has been the most surprising and disappointing development of the season for me. After investing a Top 10 pick in Buckner, in addition to the continued development of Dial and AA, the assumption was that this would be a better unit than last year. The unit has somehow regressed.

What happened? Was Ian Williams that crucial to the d-line, or is it more scheme? Injuries have surely taken a toll, as mentioned with Ian Williams. AA and Buckner are banged up too, but it doesn't explain how poorly they've played as a unit. We missing Tomsula?

Oct 11, 2016 at 9:48 PM

#11

thl408
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Posts: 33,298

First 49er offensive play.
Spot versus zone coverage (idk what)

Blue jumps the Curl. Target is to the Corner. Gab throws it as if he's expecting Celek to run the red path. Celek will run the yellow path which is correct.

Nice throw Babbert. Not a good way to start the game.

Oct 11, 2016 at 9:49 PM

#12

D0PEMAN
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Is it just me... or do we run every single play out of the shotgun?

Oct 11, 2016 at 10:11 PM

#13

thl408
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Posts: 33,298

Originally posted by D0PEMAN:
Is it just me... or do we run every single play out of the shotgun?

That's Chip being Chip.

Oct 11, 2016 at 10:22 PM

#14

thl408
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Posts: 33,298

Originally posted by Dsoto87:
Johnny can you speak more about Rashard Robinsons skill set? Hes been a bright spot the past few games but has he been a beneficiary of bad wr/qb play or is he legit? Can you speak to his technique and decision making?

I'll show two of his plays where he can be seen from the broadcast cam. It's hard to show anything clear from the all22 of player technique.

Press bump and run vs 6'3" Floyd. The ball is already snapped and RR's feet aren't set. He will recover, but I doubt he's being taught to do this. Feet should be parallel to LoS or close to parallel.

RR smacks Floyd right in the chest and holds it. Floyd can't RR off him.

Robinson getting physical with a big bodied WR. Floyd's slant is defeated. Target went somewhere else (Tartt with a nice pass break up).