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Analysis from the Green Bay Packers coaches film

Originally posted by thl408:
After a Kap 24 yard scramble where GB was playing man coverage, there was a defensive hold on an incomplete pass to Crabs. Then this pass.

49ers: All verticals concept
GB: Cover2 man

The 49ers make this playcall thinking GB would be in zone coverage at the linebacker level since they just got burned with a 24 yard Kap run moments ago. All verticals will attack the deep safties with numbers, in this case 5 WRs. However, this is man coverage underneath, which makes it harder for the playcall to succeed because the man defenders will follow their WRs instead of playing an underdeath zone.

This isn't a long bomb type of route concept. It is designed to be a quick throw, as Kap displays here. If the defender on the WR is in a trail position, then throw it over the top. If the defender is even with, or over the top of the WR, make it a back shoulder throw.



Below: The ball was just snapped. The blue lines show which GB defender is manned up on which 49er. There's a CB with a '?' on his head is because I am unsure of his assignment. It seems like it should be man coverage with the rest of this team mates, but it won't appear that way a split second later. #42 is the safety, Burnett. Notice his spacing between the hash marks and the numbers on the field. Red lines were drawn to help illustrate his distance from the hash marks to the numbers on the field.


Below: Kap hs decided to make the throw in this pic and his arm is about to start his windup. Notice how every CB has their hips turned to run with their WR. Everyone except the CB that had the '?' on his head. He is looking in the backfield. My only guess is that he is the spy to prevent another Kap scramble. He is shown doing the "he's not my guy anymore" tap to Boldin as Boldin runs past him. #42 the safety has now slid closer to the numbers on the field, and farther from VD.

Applying the vertical concept, Kap sees that AJ Hawk is not trailing VD. This means the throw will be a back shoulder throw.


Below: Kap in the middle of his windup. All the CBs are running with their WR, except for the CB on Boldin. This forces the safety to respect Boldin and shade closer to Boldin. My guess is that the CB letting Boldin run by is playing his assignment as the spy on Kap.


Below: The ball is in the air (red arrow) and #42 has taken a couple false steps (even closer to the numbers on the field) making his ability to play the ball that much more difficult. He turns his hips to drive towards the ball.


Below: Every false step #42 took mattered as he barely missed batting the pass down.


The play: All verticals works better against zone underneath coverage because it leaves the underneath defenders covering grass while all the WRs attack the deep safties. Although the playcall isn't perfect against the coverage (man under), because Kap has gashed GB for several big runs GB was not going to play man coverage all around and had one of their CBs assigned to a spy role. That spy forced the saftey (#42) to help play man coverage on Boldin and that is all the space Kap needs to fire a perfect back shoulder throw to VD.


The all verticals (four verticals) concept is relevant to the CAR game as this was what the 49ers were trying to do late in the 4th quarter. We may see it again this Sunday.

Something I noticed on this play and on Kaeps int was Boldin. His lack of speed and his ability to push the defender / safety almost hurt us twice. The defender came off of him on both plays because of his lack of threat or effort. This would've been a pick with a better safety IMO.
[ Edited by sdaddy101269 on Jan 9, 2014 at 12:08 PM ]
What I loved about this game was that every time GB scored, we came right back and scored quickly...until we needed to score slowly. Then I thought, why the hell doesn't Roman dial those calls up early in the game and put the game away early.
The five minute offense drive was one of the glorious drives in recent memory.
Originally posted by Joecool:
What I loved about this game was that every time GB scored, we came right back and scored quickly...until we needed to score slowly. Then I thought, why the hell doesn't Roman dial those calls up early in the game and put the game away early.

that's the entire frustration.

when we need to score quick we do
when we need to run the clock out we do.

how bout we just score quick to start (we move the ball fine in opening possessions just need to get td's) and then string drives together and get points.

if we start that game 14-0

well more pertinent. if we started the carolina game 14-0 like we very well could have... and tack on a field goal that's 17 points.

i think we get it done this time around.
Originally posted by Joecool:
What I loved about this game was that every time GB scored, we came right back and scored quickly...until we needed to score slowly. Then I thought, why the hell doesn't Roman dial those calls up early in the game and put the game away early.

Well, we did get screwed on the two holds/grabs on Crabtree on the two early drives. Plus I think the reason we were able to put together scoring drives late as opposed to early is a combination of: A. The defense being worn down and B. Roman setting up plays late in the game by tendencies he showed earlier.
it looked like Quinton Patton was running a post route on that 'All Verticals' play.
  • GORO
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Originally posted by thl408:
^^ Thanks for the kind words, a49fan77. I'm just an average fan as well. I just choose to watch NFL game rewind when the kids go to sleep. I'm going to defer to jonnydel (or anyone else) on this as I am not much versed in Oline/Dline play. I was not aware Broooks had a shaky game versus GB until jonnydel pointed it out. I do agree that I haven't seen much of stunts from Justin and Aldon. Perhaps I'm just not looking for it.


You are not average and what you are doing is appreciated by us all. Jonnydel and you are making us appreciate our coaching staff and players so much more.
johnnydel/NCOMMAND/thl408 outstanding comments ... others with good stuff not mentioned.

Comment: Officiating. I get they don't want to determine games and push philosophy of "just let 'em play" ... but a near discontinuation of all holding (PIs and OL play) calls was a bit much for me. AND THIS DOES MAKE THE OFFICIALS GAME CHANGERS. Not in a single call but in general, what is "cheating" is now changed. Also the fact this works for Seattle and against us, is not lost on me.

Trivia:
Rivals HS rankings 2006:
  • #1 Pocket Passer - Matt Stafford
  • #1 Dual Threat QB - Cam Newton
  • Kap #34 not as Dual Threat but Pocket Passer. He didn't become a "runner" until Nevada made him one.
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Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by Disp:
Originally posted by Ninefan56:
Originally posted by Disp:
Aldon really has become a great run defender. Here are the grades PFF gave the players for the game


Could you explain the grading system I don't know what I am seeing?

Here you go: https://www.profootballfocus.com/about/grading/

Also take it for what it's worth, but PFF says that in 2 of 3 of the games Tukuafu has played in would've been Bruce Millers 2'nd and 3'rd best run blocking graded games of the season.

Thanks for posting that, Disp. I read their grading criteria and there's one big problem I have with it - "We treat players as a number rather than a name and the reputation attached to that name."

This shows a lack of consideration for quality of competition. Because the NFL plays an unbalanced schedule, I feel the need to weigh player grades based on quality of competition as a must. If Iupati pancakes Geno Atkins, he should receive a much higher grade for the play than if he pancakes the third string defensive tackle from the Jaguars. From reading the grading criteria you linked, I don't get a sense of that happening. I'm not asking you to defend PFF, I'm just pointing out something that would seriously validate all of their grading. As it stands right now, I think it's still a nice way to get a sense for how a player did for the season, in a vacuum, but using it to say "Aldon played better than Suggs this season because his score is higher (just as an example)" would be incorrect since they played against different left tackles throughout the season.

What I think they should do is re-adjust all their scores at the end of the season. For example, let's say Okung (LT for SEA) at the end of the year grades out poorly. Then all the head to head matchups that Aldon had with Okung gets downgraded because a lot of DEs beat Okung on the year. It was no special feat to beat Okung this season. If it ends up that that Long (LT for STL) grades high, then all of Aldon's head to head matchups with Long gets a bump in grade because Long played well this season.

I agree, but I'm not sure anyone really has the capability to do that on an individual player basis. I know FootballOutsiders does weighted grades team by team, but I'm not sure it's really possible to break it down by individual player without having differing opinions skewing grades. They'd have to wait until the end of the season to see where everyone ended up grade-wise, and then re-watch and evaluate every game again with that knowledge. Add in players dealing with injuries, and several other variables and I don't know that they could feasibly do it any other way than just using an average baseline and grading players based on that.

Their system is obviously far from perfect, but I think it does a solid job overall.

Edit: Didn't read your last paragraph til I typed this out. Sounds like you're saying the same thing I just wasted 5 minutes typing haha.
[ Edited by Disp on Jan 9, 2014 at 2:31 PM ]
Originally posted by thl408:
Here's the biggest play of the game that is the least talked about. 4th quarter, game tied.

49ers: Basic flood with a bit of a rub
GB: Cover3 zone (Tampa2)

It's a big money down and the 49ers put their big dogs on the same side of the field - Crabs, Boldin (slot), and VD. GB, already gashed for a few big Kap runs, is not going to let that happen again. They go with zone coverage to keep their eyes on Kap.



Below: The depth at which Boldin and Crabs run their routes is critical. Both to get a rub element in case it's man coverage and to ensure that they run past the first down marker. VD is running a clear out to occupy the saftey(s) on that side of the field. Notice how Crabs breaks on his route right after Boldin has stopped on his route. If there was a CB playing man coverage on Crabs, that CB should get picked by Boldin (or the CB manned on Boldin). It's not man coverage, it's zone. So now the flood concept comes into play. Both #31 (House) and #33 (Hyde) think that Boldin is their current assignment. The safeties are occupied by a streaking VD.


Below: Kap has issues of his own. Iupati has lost leverage and will be giving up the pressure.


Below: Same time, different view. Kap squeezes through to escape pressure.


Below: Once Kap escapes, the CBs on that side of the field are frozen in their tracks as they fear the scramble. #33 (blue circle) is not going to let Kap scramble. However, in doing so, he isn't covering anyone. Crabs finds the soft spot in the zone.


Below: Kap throwing on the run.


Below: It's not the best throw and Crabs has to adjust his body.


Kap showing off his escape-ability and ability to throw on the run. Crabs showing hands and body control. Solid playcall to work the zone coverage. 49ers earn their money on this down.



Actually, it looks like Crabs took a couple steps to the right when Kaep was in his throwing motion. He then turns back back to his left to catch the ball. You can clearly see it in the 2nd gif from the bottom.
[ Edited by kronik on Jan 9, 2014 at 3:09 PM ]
johnnyD, thanks for all your thoughts and observations here. They are very helpful and insightful. Great guns, thanks.
Originally posted by five1oh:
it looked like Quinton Patton was running a post route on that 'All Verticals' play.

you mean crabtree?
jonnydel, thl408, et al: I don't know if Dilfer's comments about Kaepernick being a 1-read QB have been discussed at length here, and I don't know if you guys hold Grant Cohn's articles (Santa Rosa Press Democrat) with as much skepticism as I do, but I just saw something interesting in Cohn's blog. He says:

"Trent Dilfer, who played for Shula when Shula was the Buccaneers' offensive coordinator from 1996 to 1999 and currently is an analyst for ESPN, recently told a Bay Area radio station there are no progressions in the 49ers' passing game. "They're calling a play for a defense, for a player and, if that play is called wrong, that second, third, fourth option isn't going to get the ball very often. They don't have the type of offensive structure and Colin isn't the type of quarterback that there are five eligible receivers and anyone can get the ball."

This style of passing offense allows coaches to do most of the thinking, and it makes quarterback, the most difficult position in sports, much easier to play: Just fire the ball to the primary receiver if he's open and, if he's covered, run for your life.

When the 49ers' passing game is clicking and Kaepernick is hitting wide-open receiver after wide-open receiver, that means Greg Roman is guessing correctly. He's calling plays designed to get one player open against the type of coverage he expects the opposing team to use on that play. When Roman guesses incorrectly, you don't see Kaepernick reset his feet and find his second and third targets. There are no second and third targets. Those guys are decoys clearing space. When Roman guesses incorrectly, Kaepernick has to flip the ball to a running back in the flat, or scramble, or get sacked."


I just have much difficulty buying that Roman is guessing defenses and structuring Colin with 1 read depending upon the defense Roman guessed. That seems impossible and contradictory to posts you guys have put up showing Colin reading the field of play.

What are Dilfer and Cohn possibly alluding to and do you guys see any merit in their "analysis" of CK7, Roman, and the offensive structure?

http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2014/01/inside-the-49ers/it-comes-to-pass-for-49ers-panthers/
[ Edited by Adusoron on Jan 9, 2014 at 7:00 PM ]
Originally posted by Adusoron:
jonnydel, thl408, et al: I don't know if Dilfer's comments about Kaepernick being a 1-read QB have been discussed at length here, and I don't know if you guys hold Grant Cohn's articles (Santa Rosa Press Democrat) with as much skepticism as I do, but I just saw something interesting in Cohn's blog. He says:

"Trent Dilfer, who played for Shula when Shula was the Buccaneers' offensive coordinator from 1996 to 1999 and currently is an analyst for ESPN, recently told a Bay Area radio station there are no progressions in the 49ers' passing game. "They're calling a play for a defense, for a player and, if that play is called wrong, that second, third, fourth option isn't going to get the ball very often. They don't have the type of offensive structure and Colin isn't the type of quarterback that there are five eligible receivers and anyone can get the ball."

This style of passing offense allows coaches to do most of the thinking, and it makes quarterback, the most difficult position in sports, much easier to play: Just fire the ball to the primary receiver if he's open and, if he's covered, run for your life.

When the 49ers' passing game is clicking and Kaepernick is hitting wide-open receiver after wide-open receiver, that means Greg Roman is guessing correctly. He's calling plays designed to get one player open against the type of coverage he expects the opposing team to use on that play. When Roman guesses incorrectly, you don't see Kaepernick reset his feet and find his second and third targets. There are no second and third targets. Those guys are decoys clearing space. When Roman guesses incorrectly, Kaepernick has to flip the ball to a running back in the flat, or scramble, or get sacked."


I just have much difficulty buying that Roman is guessing defenses and structuring Colin with 1 read depending upon the defense Roman guessed. That seems impossible and contradictory to posts you guys have put up showing Colin reading the field of play.

What are Dilfer and Cohn possibly alluding to and do you guys see any merit in their "analysis" of CK7, Roman, and the offensive structure?

http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2014/01/inside-the-49ers/it-comes-to-pass-for-49ers-panthers/

I also have a hard time buying that. There is some truth to Kap going through limited progressions, but this notion that every time there is a completion it's because Roman made the perfect guess is absurd. There is no such thing as a zero progression offense, or a one-read offense. There are certainly primary receivers/options, but one read just isn't sustainable in an NFL game, let alone an entire season.

The playcall does not end with Roman. The QB has to approach the line, read the defense, and make the final calls to put the offense in the ideal position to attack the defense. That's why whether it was AS or Kap at QB, the same issues persist. Milking the playclock, burning timoutes, delay of games, inconsistencies in the passing game, redzone failures......these happen because the offense is micro-managed pre-snap. It's not a passing game based on rhythm and scanning the field while dropping back. It's a passing game based on the QB doing all the right things pre-snap.
[ Edited by SofaKing on Jan 9, 2014 at 7:22 PM ]
Originally posted by Adusoron:
jonnydel, thl408, et al: I don't know if Dilfer's comments about Kaepernick being a 1-read QB have been discussed at length here, and I don't know if you guys hold Grant Cohn's articles (Santa Rosa Press Democrat) with as much skepticism as I do, but I just saw something interesting in Cohn's blog. He says:

"Trent Dilfer, who played for Shula when Shula was the Buccaneers' offensive coordinator from 1996 to 1999 and currently is an analyst for ESPN, recently told a Bay Area radio station there are no progressions in the 49ers' passing game. "They're calling a play for a defense, for a player and, if that play is called wrong, that second, third, fourth option isn't going to get the ball very often. They don't have the type of offensive structure and Colin isn't the type of quarterback that there are five eligible receivers and anyone can get the ball."

This style of passing offense allows coaches to do most of the thinking, and it makes quarterback, the most difficult position in sports, much easier to play: Just fire the ball to the primary receiver if he's open and, if he's covered, run for your life.

When the 49ers' passing game is clicking and Kaepernick is hitting wide-open receiver after wide-open receiver, that means Greg Roman is guessing correctly. He's calling plays designed to get one player open against the type of coverage he expects the opposing team to use on that play. When Roman guesses incorrectly, you don't see Kaepernick reset his feet and find his second and third targets. There are no second and third targets. Those guys are decoys clearing space. When Roman guesses incorrectly, Kaepernick has to flip the ball to a running back in the flat, or scramble, or get sacked."


I just have much difficulty buying that Roman is guessing defenses and structuring Colin with 1 read depending upon the defense Roman guessed. That seems impossible and contradictory to posts you guys have put up showing Colin reading the field of play.

What are Dilfer and Cohn possibly alluding to and do you guys see any merit in their "analysis" of CK7, Roman, and the offensive structure?

http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2014/01/inside-the-49ers/it-comes-to-pass-for-49ers-panthers/

Grant Cohn is a kid who loves to make things up as he goes. The important thing for him is getting people to read his crap.