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Return to the mean

I remember all last off season all I heard was the niners would return to the mean. AKA they played over there heads and would be lucky to make this playoffs. Outside the lines article was made into a big deal about the niners being not nearly as good as they seemed. This year I hear only the opposite. The niners are the best according to the talking heads.

I personally would rather be behind in the court of public opinion rather than ahead. I think we are good but have alot of hard work to go...

Is it better or worse to be the projected favorites...
Project us for last place please. On paper champions never win anything. Just ask the Eagles.
It was Football Outsiders who wrote a lengthy article on the 49ers "returning to the mean". Classic case of relying waaaay too much on statistics.

The whole thing was flawed logic. They predicted the 49ers would have 7 or 8 wins, but using that method their predicted league high was 10 wins, and the league low was 4 wins. That's impossible. There is more parody now than ever, but not THAT much. Their formula made every team gravitate toward 8 wins. There were a few 12 and 13 win teams, as well as 2 and 3 win teams. Just like any other year. The parody in the NFL really doesn't kick in until the playoffs. That's when anyone has a shot.
[ Edited by SofaKing on May 4, 2013 at 11:50 PM ]
Football Outsiders said we'd go 8-8...dumbasses
Of course, they don't do the same for the seahags....
  • CRUD
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Our offense is still too dependent on the defense. I'm glad Kaep replaced Smith but he needs to work on some things as does Roman, both are great talents but I want to see more domination on offense where we're not depending on turnovers or rare breakout running plays by Kaep. More pocket presence and better passing plays out of the playbook. I think we'll get that with Kaep having more experience and a full off season with the addition of Boldin.
[ Edited by CRUD on May 5, 2013 at 12:12 AM ]
Originally posted by CRUD:
Our offense is still too dependent on the defense. I'm glad Kaep replaced Smith but he needs to work on some things as does Roman, both are great talents but I want to see more domination on offense where we're not depending on turnovers or rare breakout running plays by Kaep. More pocket presence and better passing plays out of the playbook. I think we'll get that with Kaep having more experience and a full off season with the addition of Boldin.

Not saying there is no room for improvement, there always is, But towards the end of the season it was our defense that was strugaling. In the playoffs our D, on average, gave up around thirty points a game. The argument could be easily made that our offense in fact did the bailing out of the defense and our abysmal ST's.
  • CRUD
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Originally posted by KegBert:
Not saying there is no room for improvement, there always is, But towards the end of the season it was our defense that was strugaling. In the playoffs our D, on average, gave up around thirty points a game. The argument could be easily made that our offense in fact did the bailing out of the defense and our abysmal ST's.

The Green Bay game ya, offense broke out but it was mostly Kaep running. The Patriots game was great as well but our offense was too hit or miss in the long run (in other games). I know we can't score 40 points a game but I'd like to see it happen I'm a spoiled fan from the 80's and 90's, yes, but I can't help but feel our passing plays are sub par. I think Roman has most of the work to do. Kaep will be alright if we can design some better plays. Gore is going to tear it up so for me the ball is in Romans court so to speak.
Originally posted by SofaKing:
It was Football Outsiders who wrote a lengthy article on the 49ers "returning to the mean". Classic case of relying waaaay too much on statistics.

The whole thing was flawed logic. They predicted the 49ers would have 7 or 8 wins, but using that method their predicted league high was 10 wins, and the league low was 4 wins. That's impossible. There is more parody now than ever, but not THAT much. Their formula made every team gravitate toward 8 wins. There were a few 12 and 13 win teams, as well as 2 and 3 win teams. Just like any other year. The parody in the NFL really doesn't kick in until the playoffs. That's when anyone has a shot.

* parity
Originally posted by ninermedic:
Originally posted by SofaKing:
It was Football Outsiders who wrote a lengthy article on the 49ers "returning to the mean". Classic case of relying waaaay too much on statistics.

The whole thing was flawed logic. They predicted the 49ers would have 7 or 8 wins, but using that method their predicted league high was 10 wins, and the league low was 4 wins. That's impossible. There is more parody now than ever, but not THAT much. Their formula made every team gravitate toward 8 wins. There were a few 12 and 13 win teams, as well as 2 and 3 win teams. Just like any other year. The parody in the NFL really doesn't kick in until the playoffs. That's when anyone has a shot.

* parity

yep
They aren't predicting the Niners as the best---it's the Shehawks. Consensus off season NFC West Champ for the last 2 years.
Originally posted by CRUD:
Originally posted by KegBert:
Not saying there is no room for improvement, there always is, But towards the end of the season it was our defense that was strugaling. In the playoffs our D, on average, gave up around thirty points a game. The argument could be easily made that our offense in fact did the bailing out of the defense and our abysmal ST's.

The Green Bay game ya, offense broke out but it was mostly Kaep running. The Patriots game was great as well but our offense was too hit or miss in the long run (in other games). I know we can't score 40 points a game but I'd like to see it happen I'm a spoiled fan from the 80's and 90's, yes, but I can't help but feel our passing plays are sub par. I think Roman has most of the work to do. Kaep will be alright if we can design some better plays. Gore is going to tear it up so for me the ball is in Romans court so to speak.

Agreed. I do believe we need to call some better plays at certain times and I think he will with Kaepernick at the helm this season! So ready for the season to start!
Kick em in the chins.....
Actually, the Niners had a lot of "back to the mean" hits last year and still almost won it all. The kicker, on his own, accounted for at least two games that could have been wins but were not. They had some very timely injuries that they had to overcome. If anything, one might expect a little luck coming their way this next season.
Football Outsiders said 8-8.

I'd take that bet. I'd bet 2K that we do better than 8-8 - no matter what the odds are.