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Rationale for letting Goldson, Sopoaga go and not sign other FA's

  • cciowa
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Originally posted by PRIMETIME21:
Originally posted by guillotine31:
Unless your name is Earl Thomas or Eric Berry, you shouldn't get overpaid to play Safety these days. Goldson is in that tier below them, and I can't see anyone paying that much for him if the Cowboys just cut Sensabaugh to save $1mil against the cap.

Paying him $8mil a year in our defense makes no sense. Our D is centered around the front 7 (and more specifically, the LBs). That's where our money will be invested. And I'm glad that's the case.

goldson is better than both of the guys you mention, it will be a slight set back on defense.
not if you improve the pass rush. you can find someone in free agency who is more than respectable and also will not cost you drives with foolish penalties, draft a rookie and the defense does not go backwards in my opinion. no the more i think about it, let him walk, you do not want to risk not siging key players down the road . however we MUST get a better pass rush .
Originally posted by cciowa:
Originally posted by PRIMETIME21:
Originally posted by guillotine31:
Unless your name is Earl Thomas or Eric Berry, you shouldn't get overpaid to play Safety these days. Goldson is in that tier below them, and I can't see anyone paying that much for him if the Cowboys just cut Sensabaugh to save $1mil against the cap.

Paying him $8mil a year in our defense makes no sense. Our D is centered around the front 7 (and more specifically, the LBs). That's where our money will be invested. And I'm glad that's the case.

goldson is better than both of the guys you mention, it will be a slight set back on defense.
not if you improve the pass rush. you can find someone in free agency who is more than respectable and also will not cost you drives with foolish penalties, draft a rookie and the defense does not go backwards in my opinion. no the more i think about it, let him walk, you do not want to risk not siging key players down the road . however we MUST get a better pass rush .

yea i agree we have to do it to sign the people up soon, but i think we will take a slight set back on defense regardless of who we get to replace him, unless its ed reed.
Originally posted by 9erred:
What you FAIL to understand is Paraag has done a great job with cutting down on "dead money" that has to be used towards the cap. By cutting everyone on the above list you would accelerate bonuses into the 2013 season, creating a cap situation where the niners could not sign additional players that would be an upgrade as there would be no money left.

That is why the niners have been doing a lot of 1 or 2 year contracts, when you look at the Rogers and Whitner contracts, you would not gain that much cap space by cutting them.

Thanks red! And that is a great perspective. Do you know what the 2013+ ramifications would be in this scenario? If we cut Rogers/Whitner?
  • Disp
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This is a good article that came out today on Profootballfocus. It puts an expected salary for the players based on their 2012 performance and shows the relative value based on their production:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/04/performance-based-value-san-francisco-49ers/

They estimate Sopoaga's production as deserving $825k salary, Goldson @ $5m, and Whitner @ $1.3M. I don't see any way we'll be able to retain Goldson, and I'd rather try our chances with McBath/Robinson or the draft anyway. Some team is gonna pay him $7 or $8mil. a year, and I think that would really hurt us in the future for a player who really doesn't deserve it imo. Goldson is a top 10 FS, but he'll probably get top 3 money by some desperate team, and we have too many big contracts coming up in the next 2 years to lock in a non-elite player for a lot of money.

While Goldson is solid for the intimidation factor and as a run defender, I just don't think he's an integral part of the defense, and his value to the team just isn't worth close to the type of contract he's looking for.
[ Edited by Disp on Mar 4, 2013 at 12:54 PM ]
Originally posted by Disp:
This is a good article that came out today on Profootballfocus. It puts an expected salary for the players based on their 2012 performance and shows the relative value based on their production:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/04/performance-based-value-san-francisco-49ers/

They estimate Sopoaga's production as deserving $825k salary, Goldson @ $5m, and Whitner @ $1.3M. I don't see any way we'll be able to retain Goldson, and I'd rather try our chances with McBath/Robinson or the draft anyway. Some team is gonna pay him $7 or $8mil. a year, and I think that would really hurt us in the future for a player who really doesn't deserve it imo. Goldson is a top 10 FS, but he'll probably get top 3 money by some desperate team, and we have too many big contracts coming up in the next 2 years to lock in a non-elite player for a lot of money.

This is GREAT and ironically, when I was playing arm-chair GM, this is the EXACT perspective l took when I was considering my bigger-named cuts. Did their production match their salary and can I expect them to be better next year or the year after (e.g. age, upside, injury, etc.)? And did we have anyone waiting to take their spots (e.g. guys training for a whole year/two)? If not, can we (e.g. FA or high draft pick)?

This is why I immediately looked at guys such as Whitner, Rogers, Sopoaga, Goodwin, etc. We've already seen tougher moves made by teams such as the Falcons, etc. Expect many more...including a few from us.
The Niners have to get ready to start spending more on offense. That's where the league is going anyway. Every year there are new rules that make it harder to play defense and every year offenses are getting more and more prolific. They've got a young QB capable of lighting it up on a weekly basis. They've got one of the best if not the best O-line in the league. I bet we're going to see a much more aggressive offense next season.
  • cciowa
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Originally posted by GNielsen:
The Niners have to get ready to start spending more on offense. That's where the league is going anyway. Every year there are new rules that make it harder to play defense and every year offenses are getting more and more prolific. They've got a young QB capable of lighting it up on a weekly basis. They've got one of the best if not the best O-line in the league. I bet we're going to see a much more aggressive offense next season.

i think almost every single concern we have on defense can be handled with a wise draft. i think you are right in that we may have to dip into free agency to improve the wide out thing
Originally posted by mkmasn:
Originally posted by buck:
Apparently, there a couple of teams interested in RJF which means he could get a decent contract and matching playing time.

If so, we would get more than a 7th round comp for him.

If Goldson signs elsewhere, and it seems that he will, it will be a mega contract and should bring us a third round comp.

That's what I see when Baalke says they won't tag Goldson.

This is what I am seeing and reading.
[ Edited by tohara3 on Mar 4, 2013 at 4:58 PM ]
My opinion, the entire secondary is expendable. Overpaying for goldston would be a mistake. He should have taken the contract we posted two seasons ago. We don't have any true ball hawks in the secondary and their production can be replaced through the draft. Finding JS replacement and another pass rusher should be priority along with building a more explosive offense.
  • Disp
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I don't think Brown and Culliver are expendable. Culliver had some bad games towards the end of the year, but he was great for most of the season. Brown has been our best DB though by quite a bit, he just doesn't get much love for some reason.
[ Edited by Disp on Mar 4, 2013 at 4:33 PM ]
  • Garcia
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we have 15 draft picks and can find someone better/cheaper/younger
Originally posted by cciowa:
Originally posted by GNielsen:
The Niners have to get ready to start spending more on offense. That's where the league is going anyway. Every year there are new rules that make it harder to play defense and every year offenses are getting more and more prolific. They've got a young QB capable of lighting it up on a weekly basis. They've got one of the best if not the best O-line in the league. I bet we're going to see a much more aggressive offense next season.

i think almost every single concern we have on defense can be handled with a wise draft. i think you are right in that we may have to dip into free agency to improve the wide out thing

Just one of the big names in FA would have an instant effect. Percy Harvin or Mike Wallace would be perfect. Sadly we tend not to go after the big names with any kind of fervor. Not sure if either of those guys would be #2 or #1 with Crabs.
Originally posted by Disp:
I don't think Brown and Culliver are expendable. Culliver had some bad games towards the end of the year, but he was great for most of the season. Brown has been our best DB though by quite a bit, he just doesn't get much love for some reason.

I agree with this take. Pro Football Focus was also the site that put Culliver right at #1 in their rankings when considering CBs who don't give up first downs or TDs. The kid had a bad Super Bowl, and he occasionally has some breakdowns, but he is legit, and we need to keep him and Brown.

That said, I really want a CB with one of our first 3 picks, and I'm hoping either Trufant or Rhodes slides in the first. You never know.
Reason to let Goldson Walk? Two Words. Compensatory Pick
Originally posted by 9erred:
I know everyone wants to re sign Goldson, Sopoaga, Larry Grant, etc. They also want to cut Carlos Rogers and Whitner. This is the reality.

Rogers- Cannot be cut, becaue he has guaranteed money that would count as dead money, so cap saving is not there.
Whitner- See Rogers above, cannot be cut, cap savings not there

Now if Goldson and Sopoaga walk in free agency, and the niners get their replacements via the draft, Baalke et al will get compensatory selections in 2014.

The highest compensatory for Goldson (assuming he starts and plays all season for someone). 3rd rounder
Sopoaga- 7th rounder
RJF- 7th rounder

Just a little reality, niners will build through the draft.


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