Originally posted by OldJoe:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
I admit I was wrong man. I didn't think we would make out this well. Glad I am wrong for once.
Revis is possible now. Possibly pick 31 and 61 would do it. I wouldn't do a 16M a yr deal, if he is willing to front load it for 2013, and then maybe in 2015, but also friendly cap wise, to make it so we can safe guard in case of decline, I am all for it.
Your not the only one "manning up". I have seen multiple people I highly respect their opinion, admitting that thought we would get less. And those who guessed right..... crowing about it. Uneducated lucky guesses are worthless. In every case I have seen, it has been one with lots of zeal for Alex. Their logic is this: Conventional Wisdom was Alex is worth a third or fourth, "but I really like Alex and think he is worth more so I will say ..... a 2nd".
- That ignores the awful draft for QBs
- That ignores the awful FA QB market
- That ignores the key, which was how the GMs feel about the draft and FAs. How many are willing to bid on Alex? That was the key and none of those who predicted right, discussed this main factor. It would be a tough sell to KC that we would keep Alex. And also a tough sell to convince we would trade to Ariz. Negotiations like this are all about leverage. Two teams would have had to be involved, to get this much and that would be the key to a intelligent prediction. I still find it hard to be thinking that was Oakland. The details of this I will find intriguing.
So I for one am more impressed with those who "were wrong" than those who were right.
Recognizing leverage is just as important in predicting a trade as pure talent evaluation. In my view, Alex Smith proved in the past 2.5 years that he was a top 10 QB in this league. That is not based solely on stats but also in the success of running plays where he made adjustments along with an outstanding record of protecting the football. Now throw in what Seattle gave up for Flynn and AZ for Kolb and the Smith price was not all that difficult to predict.
One other point that plays into this; you mentioned the poor FA market. You are correct in noting that but that plays in a different way than you are suggesting. Specifically, There are many teams that would like to improve their QB situation but recognize their current guy is just as good as anybody else out there so they are hanging onto them. This league is still lacking in overall QB depth. There are at least 8 teams that would jump at the chance to sign someone better but there isn't anyone out there. Hence, Alex Smith becomes even more valuable.
Yes, I was one of those gloating but I feel justified in my long-held prediction that Alex Smith was worth more than just a 3rd or 4th round pick. I like him but he is also a very good QB.