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What Alex Smith Trade Means Cap Wise (Webzone Exclusive)

http://www.49erswebzone.com/commentary/1095-what-alex-smith-trade-means-cap-wise/
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
http://www.49erswebzone.com/commentary/1095-what-alex-smith-trade-means-cap-wise/

Copyright that $hit !
Ab, have you calculated how much we will need for the draft with the 12 picks and the comp picks? I guess the extra picks won't be that bad since we are picking at the end of the round instead of early like all those past years. Thanks in advance

Edit: Not sure what you are saying about Goldson. You think we will sign him long term to save on the cap. Is that why we aren't tagging him? Personally, I think it would be dumb not to tag him if we don't think we can get a long term deal done. 7.25 is not that much for him... getting rid of Alex saved the money and then some for it. Akers will most likely be gone... Haralson and Goodwin I don't think will be but they could re-negotiate.
[ Edited by Gore_21 on Feb 27, 2013 at 4:58 PM ]
you stole that from me
So AB I guess we found out Alex's value....2nd round pick. I must say I wasn't far off when I proposed that KC would trade a 2nd and 3rd this year for Alex and our 31st overall. We actually make out better this way. Conditional pick next year and the first pick of day 2.

If we cut Haralson and Akers we would save 5.8 mil less the guarenteed money in addition to the 9.75 of Alex. So roughly 16 mil under???
If so where does that put us in terms of FA? I've read the Revis idea....but realistically, considering Baalke and JH, are we gunna invest picks into a trade for a one year rental with a huge number on our cap, not knowing if we can re-work his deal or if he'll stay at seasons end.

I feel we should lock up Dashon and let the Whitner contract expire and hope we draft/develop for the position so we can then lock up Iupati and A. Davis. Not to mention Kaep and Aldon. Who know's what happens with Crab and Vernon.

Thoughts?
Originally posted by Gore_21:
Ab, have you calculated how much we will need for the draft with the 12 picks and the comp picks? I guess the extra picks won't be that bad since we are picking at the end of the round instead of early like all those past years. Thanks in advance

Edit: Not sure what you are saying about Goldson. You think we will sign him long term to save on the cap. Is that why we aren't tagging him? Personally, I think it would be dumb not to tag him if we don't think we can get a long term deal done. 7.25 is not that much for him... getting rid of Alex saved the money and then some for it. Akers will most likely be gone... Haralson and Goodwin I don't think will be but they could re-negotiate.

Usually I say around $5-6M, I will up it to $6.5 million, but likely $5M as we will trade around, and later round picks wont matter much in the calculations when it matters.
Originally posted by suckafree17:
So AB I guess we found out Alex's value....2nd round pick. I must say I wasn't far off when I proposed that KC would trade a 2nd and 3rd this year for Alex and our 31st overall. We actually make out better this way. Conditional pick next year and the first pick of day 2.

If we cut Haralson and Akers we would save 5.8 mil less the guarenteed money in addition to the 9.75 of Alex. So roughly 16 mil under???
If so where does that put us in terms of FA? I've read the Revis idea....but realistically, considering Baalke and JH, are we gunna invest picks into a trade for a one year rental with a huge number on our cap, not knowing if we can re-work his deal or if he'll stay at seasons end.

I feel we should lock up Dashon and let the Whitner contract expire and hope we draft/develop for the position so we can then lock up Iupati and A. Davis. Not to mention Kaep and Aldon. Who know's what happens with Crab and Vernon.

Thoughts?

I admit I was wrong man. I didn't think we would make out this well. Glad I am wrong for once.

Revis is possible now. Possibly pick 31 and 61 would do it. I wouldn't do a 16M a yr deal, if he is willing to front load it for 2013, and then maybe in 2015, but also friendly cap wise, to make it so we can safe guard in case of decline, I am all for it.
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Originally posted by suckafree17:
So AB I guess we found out Alex's value....2nd round pick. I must say I wasn't far off when I proposed that KC would trade a 2nd and 3rd this year for Alex and our 31st overall. We actually make out better this way. Conditional pick next year and the first pick of day 2.

If we cut Haralson and Akers we would save 5.8 mil less the guarenteed money in addition to the 9.75 of Alex. So roughly 16 mil under???
If so where does that put us in terms of FA? I've read the Revis idea....but realistically, considering Baalke and JH, are we gunna invest picks into a trade for a one year rental with a huge number on our cap, not knowing if we can re-work his deal or if he'll stay at seasons end.

I feel we should lock up Dashon and let the Whitner contract expire and hope we draft/develop for the position so we can then lock up Iupati and A. Davis. Not to mention Kaep and Aldon. Who know's what happens with Crab and Vernon.

Thoughts?

I admit I was wrong man. I didn't think we would make out this well. Glad I am wrong for once.

Revis is possible now. Possibly pick 31 and 61 would do it. I wouldn't do a 16M a yr deal, if he is willing to front load it for 2013, and then maybe in 2015, but also friendly cap wise, to make it so we can safe guard in case of decline, I am all for it.


I don't wanna touch him at all. A solid saftey will be around in the early 30s. What FA move would u make??
We made out much better than I thought for sure!
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Originally posted by suckafree17:
So AB I guess we found out Alex's value....2nd round pick. I must say I wasn't far off when I proposed that KC would trade a 2nd and 3rd this year for Alex and our 31st overall. We actually make out better this way. Conditional pick next year and the first pick of day 2.

If we cut Haralson and Akers we would save 5.8 mil less the guarenteed money in addition to the 9.75 of Alex. So roughly 16 mil under???
If so where does that put us in terms of FA? I've read the Revis idea....but realistically, considering Baalke and JH, are we gunna invest picks into a trade for a one year rental with a huge number on our cap, not knowing if we can re-work his deal or if he'll stay at seasons end.

I feel we should lock up Dashon and let the Whitner contract expire and hope we draft/develop for the position so we can then lock up Iupati and A. Davis. Not to mention Kaep and Aldon. Who know's what happens with Crab and Vernon.

Thoughts?

I admit I was wrong man. I didn't think we would make out this well. Glad I am wrong for once.

Revis is possible now. Possibly pick 31 and 61 would do it. I wouldn't do a 16M a yr deal, if he is willing to front load it for 2013, and then maybe in 2015, but also friendly cap wise, to make it so we can safe guard in case of decline, I am all for it.

Using our 31st and 61st to trade for Revis would be freaking dumb as $ell.
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
I admit I was wrong man. I didn't think we would make out this well. Glad I am wrong for once.

Revis is possible now. Possibly pick 31 and 61 would do it. I wouldn't do a 16M a yr deal, if he is willing to front load it for 2013, and then maybe in 2015, but also friendly cap wise, to make it so we can safe guard in case of decline, I am all for it.

Your not the only one "manning up". I have seen multiple people I highly respect their opinion, admitting that thought we would get less. And those who guessed right..... crowing about it. Uneducated lucky guesses are worthless. In every case I have seen, it has been one with lots of zeal for Alex. Their logic is this: Conventional Wisdom was Alex is worth a third or fourth, "but I really like Alex and think he is worth more so I will say ..... a 2nd".

  • That ignores the awful draft for QBs
  • That ignores the awful FA QB market
  • That ignores the key, which was how the GMs feel about the draft and FAs. How many are willing to bid on Alex? That was the key and none of those who predicted right, discussed this main factor. It would be a tough sell to KC that we would keep Alex. And also a tough sell to convince we would trade to Ariz. Negotiations like this are all about leverage. Two teams would have had to be involved, to get this much and that would be the key to a intelligent prediction. I still find it hard to be thinking that was Oakland. The details of this I will find intriguing.

So I for one am more impressed with those who "were wrong" than those who were right.
.... oh yeah Revis. I like the idea of getting him, because I trust Baalke. The man knows value. If we get Revis it will be a good deal. Baalke knows value, hell I wouldn't be surprised if he when he buys a car he negotiates with Car Salesmen and convinces them into selling cars under cost.
  • dj43
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 20,155
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Originally posted by Gore_21:
Ab, have you calculated how much we will need for the draft with the 12 picks and the comp picks? I guess the extra picks won't be that bad since we are picking at the end of the round instead of early like all those past years. Thanks in advance

Edit: Not sure what you are saying about Goldson. You think we will sign him long term to save on the cap. Is that why we aren't tagging him? Personally, I think it would be dumb not to tag him if we don't think we can get a long term deal done. 7.25 is not that much for him... getting rid of Alex saved the money and then some for it. Akers will most likely be gone... Haralson and Goodwin I don't think will be but they could re-negotiate.

Usually I say around $5-6M, I will up it to $6.5 million, but likely $5M as we will trade around, and later round picks wont matter much in the calculations when it matters.

I doubt more than 4 or 5 picks will make the squad this season anyway. Those late picks only change the players on the bottom 1/3 of the roster. They won't have any impact on most games. For that reason, I expect Baalke to package a bunch of them to move up and land 2-3 impact players rather than dumping them on 12+ players, the majority to whom will not make the team anyway.

As to Revis, I'm not sure he is worth what he is asking, particularly coming off a serious injury. However, if he is willing to make a cap friendly deal for 2013, he could solve a major need. I would invest a 2nd and a 3rd to get him. The Jets get the chance for two players on a roster that is devoid of serious talent and get rid of a guy who doesn't want to be there anyway.
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Originally posted by Gore_21:
Ab, have you calculated how much we will need for the draft with the 12 picks and the comp picks? I guess the extra picks won't be that bad since we are picking at the end of the round instead of early like all those past years. Thanks in advance

Edit: Not sure what you are saying about Goldson. You think we will sign him long term to save on the cap. Is that why we aren't tagging him? Personally, I think it would be dumb not to tag him if we don't think we can get a long term deal done. 7.25 is not that much for him... getting rid of Alex saved the money and then some for it. Akers will most likely be gone... Haralson and Goodwin I don't think will be but they could re-negotiate.

Usually I say around $5-6M, I will up it to $6.5 million, but likely $5M as we will trade around, and later round picks wont matter much in the calculations when it matters.

I doubt more than 4 or 5 picks will make the squad this season anyway. Those late picks only change the players on the bottom 1/3 of the roster. They won't have any impact on most games. For that reason, I expect Baalke to package a bunch of them to move up and land 2-3 impact players rather than dumping them on 12+ players, the majority to whom will not make the team anyway.

As to Revis, I'm not sure he is worth what he is asking, particularly coming off a serious injury. However, if he is willing to make a cap friendly deal for 2013, he could solve a major need. I would invest a 2nd and a 3rd to get him. The Jets get the chance for two players on a roster that is devoid of serious talent and get rid of a guy who doesn't want to be there anyway.

There is no doubt in my mind that 5-6 max rookies on 53 man this year. Also agree with Revis, I think there is no doubt Baalke will not do a deal that will hurt the teams cap, unlike others like NYJ, Oakland, New Orleans, pittsrbugh, Dallas and Carolina to name the top 6 terrible cap situations this year.
  • dj43
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 20,155
Originally posted by OldJoe:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
I admit I was wrong man. I didn't think we would make out this well. Glad I am wrong for once.

Revis is possible now. Possibly pick 31 and 61 would do it. I wouldn't do a 16M a yr deal, if he is willing to front load it for 2013, and then maybe in 2015, but also friendly cap wise, to make it so we can safe guard in case of decline, I am all for it.

Your not the only one "manning up". I have seen multiple people I highly respect their opinion, admitting that thought we would get less. And those who guessed right..... crowing about it. Uneducated lucky guesses are worthless. In every case I have seen, it has been one with lots of zeal for Alex. Their logic is this: Conventional Wisdom was Alex is worth a third or fourth, "but I really like Alex and think he is worth more so I will say ..... a 2nd".

  • That ignores the awful draft for QBs
  • That ignores the awful FA QB market
  • That ignores the key, which was how the GMs feel about the draft and FAs. How many are willing to bid on Alex? That was the key and none of those who predicted right, discussed this main factor. It would be a tough sell to KC that we would keep Alex. And also a tough sell to convince we would trade to Ariz. Negotiations like this are all about leverage. Two teams would have had to be involved, to get this much and that would be the key to a intelligent prediction. I still find it hard to be thinking that was Oakland. The details of this I will find intriguing.

So I for one am more impressed with those who "were wrong" than those who were right.

Recognizing leverage is just as important in predicting a trade as pure talent evaluation. In my view, Alex Smith proved in the past 2.5 years that he was a top 10 QB in this league. That is not based solely on stats but also in the success of running plays where he made adjustments along with an outstanding record of protecting the football. Now throw in what Seattle gave up for Flynn and AZ for Kolb and the Smith price was not all that difficult to predict.

One other point that plays into this; you mentioned the poor FA market. You are correct in noting that but that plays in a different way than you are suggesting. Specifically, There are many teams that would like to improve their QB situation but recognize their current guy is just as good as anybody else out there so they are hanging onto them. This league is still lacking in overall QB depth. There are at least 8 teams that would jump at the chance to sign someone better but there isn't anyone out there. Hence, Alex Smith becomes even more valuable.

Yes, I was one of those gloating but I feel justified in my long-held prediction that Alex Smith was worth more than just a 3rd or 4th round pick. I like him but he is also a very good QB.