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2013 Salary Cap Outlook, plus can the 49ers add a big name via Trade (Webzone Exclusive)

Originally posted by crabman82:
i could see maybe a harvin acquired by trade, but for anyone legitly thinking of a wallace, revis type of big time splash shouldnt get their hopes up IMO

Revis isnt going to happen, simply because he wants historic money coming off injury issues. Nobody is going to trade the Jets what they want for a rental guy who will demand cap crippling money.

Wallace and Harvin are both talking a big game about contract demands, but ultimately they will only get what the highest bidder is willing to give, and I dont think its anywhere near Calvin Johnson or Fitz money.

Id give Wallace a nice deal though. He'd fill the Randy Moss role, but instead of being a lazy decoy, hed actually be able to burn defenders and make them pay.

Kap to Wallace....
A 1st for Harvin? . . . . . . . We have needs at the D-line that are more important than WR.
Originally posted by BrianGO:
People don't realize how lucky we have been with our cap. The Bowman deal was insane. We can't expect all of our players to agree to that type of deal.

After next year, Kap will be a 20+ million QB. Don't kid yourselves.
We will be LUCKY to keep Aldon for 12 million.
LUCKY to keep Crabtree for 9 million.

Those are the three players we MUST sign.

That's, at a minimum, 41 million of our cap right there. Think O-line is important? I haven't even talked about Iupati, A Davis. I haven't talked about our safeties. Despite this, people want to keep Alex Smith for 9 million, and go after huge free agents? Reality is beginning to catch up to our team, and people are going to be crying and whining about how "York is cheap" etc pretty soon again, because they don't understand the salary cap situation.

Letting go of:
Goodwin
Akers
Ginn
Goldson
Alex Smith
Rogers
Walker

Will probably be enough to keep the rest of the players we have if we are creative and front load some of the contracts; but going after players like Bowe, Harvin, Revis? That'll happen. In a video game.

I dont think anyone here believes we are keeping Alex, Ginn or Akers...and most are saying Walker and Goodwin are posibilities if we find replacements so acting like we are all crazy is a little silly. Also I have my doubts that Kap pulls 20 mil. thats top 5 in the league money, he has a lot to prove yet to be in that territory. Sure Flacco is asking for it, but only because he has a superbowl win giving him leverage. Making up numbers and talking down to people doesnt make you psychic. I dont think you need to cut half the team to cover the upcomming salaries. I also think you over inflate what some of these guys are going to get and act like they all have to be signed the same year to inflate your point. Goodwin and Whitner could be gone next year, doesnt have to be right now, Goldson could sign for Alex's money and be taken care of, Cowboy and Vernon could restructure to spread their deals out. Rogers could be resigned at a pay cut, Guys could be re-upped a year early which often nets a modest discount if they are happy here...there are a lot of variables at play.
I can't help but laugh at the posts that suggest we cut 5+ starters off the roster. This team isn't in rebuild mode.
Originally posted by BrianGO:
People don't realize how lucky we have been with our cap. The Bowman deal was insane. We can't expect all of our players to agree to that type of deal.

After next year, Kap will be a 20+ million QB. Don't kid yourselves.
We will be LUCKY to keep Aldon for 12 million.
LUCKY to keep Crabtree for 9 million.

Those are the three players we MUST sign.

That's, at a minimum, 41 million of our cap right there. Think O-line is important? I haven't even talked about Iupati, A Davis. I haven't talked about our safeties. Despite this, people want to keep Alex Smith for 9 million, and go after huge free agents? Reality is beginning to catch up to our team, and people are going to be crying and whining about how "York is cheap" etc pretty soon again, because they don't understand the salary cap situation.

Letting go of:
Goodwin
Akers
Ginn
Goldson
Alex Smith
Rogers
Walker

Will probably be enough to keep the rest of the players we have if we are creative and front load some of the contracts; but going after players like Bowe, Harvin, Revis? That'll happen. In a video game.

First let me say, I am not someone who wants us to go after a Bowe, Harvin, or Revis type of guy. I agree that overspending for big name guys isn't the way to build a long-term contender.

That said, you are overestimating what it will cost to retain our guys. Like any fan, you overestimate the value of our guys.... something our FO won't do:

There are only 2 QBs in the league averaging $20M.... Drew Brees and Payton Manning. And both those guys got those contracts after proving that they were the best QBs the the NFL. Then you drop down to guys in the $14-15M range (Brady, E. Manning, and Rivers). Rivers is overpaid, but Brady and Manning have both won superbowls and proven their elite status. Kaep ain't there yet. If he leads us to a super-bowl win next year then yes, maybe we will get a $15M year contract. But still, I don't think a 3rd year QB will get a contract like Brady's. More likely, Kaep falls into the $12-13M category which includes Rothlisberger, Stafford, and Bradford.

Let's move on to Aldon. No LB in the league averaged $12M in 2013. Nobody. Closest is Demarcus Ware at $11M.. after that Lamar Woodley at $10M, then a few guys at $9M. Maybe in one more year Aldon will be in that category. But right now, he's a bit of a liability in coverage and he depends on playing next to an all-pro DT in order to be productive as a pass rusher. We should be able to get him for $8-9M as long as we don't wait till his contract year.

Next, Crabtree. You are closer on your estimate of Crab. The highest paid WRs are Megatron and Fitzgerald at $18M and $14M respectively. Nobody else in the league comes close to being worth that kind of money. There are some overpaid WRs in this league. You've got Andre Johnson at $9.5M and Sidney Rice at $8.2M. I would expect crabtree to get something in that range. Crabtree has only had one good season. So if we lock him up now, I'd expect something closer to $8-8.5M.

All of my info comes from: http://www.spotrac.com/top-salaries/nfl/average/.
Everyone I recommend using this site over Spotrac, as they are very inaccurate.

http://overthecap.com/
Well Said BLM. And with the way that teams "restructure" contracts constantly, it's silly to get too wrapped up in what's going to happen years down the line. Keeping an eye on next year's number is good sense, but past that there are too many variables. And since super bowl windows dont stay open long, it makes stepping up and trying to sign another impact player a very reasonable move, if you don't have to tear the team apart to achieve it.

Looking at the current roster and cap situation, cutting/trading Alex, Akers, Haralson, Whitner, and Manningham would bring them to about 25 million under the cap. Replacing Akers and Haralson should be very inexpensive, maybe a couple of million total, leaving 23 million to a) re-sign Goldson, b) find a veteran backup QB, c) find a true FS, d) fill a spot on the WR corps, e) re-sign the depth players (Grant, RJF, Gooden, Mcbath)

This assumes that they let Walker, Moss, Soap, Ginn, Davis, Haggans, and Brock test the market, and I don't think any tears would be shed over those guys. Walker or Ginn could be back at reasonable numbers.

So lets assume Grant (1.5), RJF (1.5), Gooden (.75), and McBath (.75) are all back for 4.5 million total, leaving 18.5 million for a) through d). A veteran backup QB should run about 3 million, and Goldson's extension should be flexible enough that they could put a lower number in year 1 if they wanted space. Let's assume he gets a deal around what he made this season (top-5 safety money) which would be 6.5 million in year 1. So we are down to 9 million in space and needing a safety and a WR.

Here is where they can get creative. They can believe in a Safety on the roster, like McBath or Spillman, or find one in the draft, if they want that money to be spent on a big time wideout. Or they can sign a couple of mid level free agents at both spots. Or they can decide that between Jenkins, Williams, and the draft that they can sign a cheaper wideout and spend money on the secondary. Or they can decide to cut Goodwin and/or Rogers to free up more room.

Theres definitely some flexibility in the roster. Personally, the guy I would target that no one seems to talk about is Jairus Byrd. He's probably the best Cover/pass defense safety in the league right now, he'd be a perfect fit with Goldson (allowing him to play the run more), and his cover/ball skills would help negate some of the shaky CB play that goes on. Add in that Safety is a lower-paid spot (but can be hugely impactful), and I think it could be a great value. If he got 5.5 million (1 mil less than Goldson), they'd still have 3+ million to spend on a WR2/3 type even without cutting Goodwin or Rogers.
[ Edited by DarkKnight1680 on Feb 14, 2013 at 10:42 AM ]
^^^^NICE. I personnaly like how that panned out.
Member Milestone: This is post number 1,600 for GNielsen.
Originally posted by TheRatMan13:
I can't help but laugh at the posts that suggest we cut 5+ starters off the roster. This team isn't in rebuild mode.

It's really pretty silly isn't it. Classic Webzone dramatic over-reaction. You tweak a team that was five yards from winning the Superbowl. You don't re-build it. The tweaks will be developing a couple more receivers and especially adding size and depth to the defensive line. Other than that, a corner back here, a safety there to develop, that's it.

The silliest part of it is taking the anchor of one of the best offensive lines in league, Goodwin, and letting him go. WTF?
  • pd24
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AB, does the cut in Brooks pay help the Cap in any way?
Originally posted by DarkKnight1680:
Well Said BLM. And with the way that teams "restructure" contracts constantly, it's silly to get too wrapped up in what's going to happen years down the line. Keeping an eye on next year's number is good sense, but past that there are too many variables. And since super bowl windows dont stay open long, it makes stepping up and trying to sign another impact player a very reasonable move, if you don't have to tear the team apart to achieve it.

Looking at the current roster and cap situation, cutting/trading Alex, Akers, Haralson, Whitner, and Manningham would bring them to about 25 million under the cap. Replacing Akers and Haralson should be very inexpensive, maybe a couple of million total, leaving 23 million to a) re-sign Goldson, b) find a veteran backup QB, c) find a true FS, d) fill a spot on the WR corps, e) re-sign the depth players (Grant, RJF, Gooden, Mcbath)

This assumes that they let Walker, Moss, Soap, Ginn, Davis, Haggans, and Brock test the market, and I don't think any tears would be shed over those guys Walker or Ginn could be back at reasonable numbers.

So lets assume Grant (1.5), RJF (1.5), Gooden (.75), and McBath (.75) are all back for 4.5 million total, leaving 18.5 million for a) through d). A veteran backup QB should run about 3 million, and Goldson's extension should be flexible enough that they could put a lower number in year 1 if they wanted space. Let's assume he gets a deal around what he made this season (top-5 safety money) which would be 6.5 million in year 1. So we are down to 9 million in space and needing a safety and a WR.

Here is where they can get creative. They can believe in a Safety on the roster, like McBath or Spillman, or find one in the draft, if they want that money to be spent on a big time wideout. Or they can sign a couple of mid level free agents at both spots. Or they can decide that between Jenkins, Williams, and the draft that they can sign a cheaper wideout and spend money on the secondary. Or they can decide to cut Goodwin and/or Rogers to free up more room.

Theres definitely some flexibility in the roster. Personally, the guy I would target that no one seems to talk about is Jairus Byrd. He's probably the best Cover/pass defense safety in the league right now, he'd be a perfect fit with Goldson (allowing him to play the run more), and his cover/ball skills would help negate some of the shaky CB play that goes on. Add in that Safety is a lower-paid spot (but can be hugely impactful), and I think it could be a great value. If he got 5.5 million (1 mil less that Goldson), they'd still have 3+ million to spend on a WR2/3 type even without cutting Goodwin or Rogers.

I should point out that I didn't account for the rookie class here, but in reality there will likely only be 2-4 players from the rookie class who end up in the top 51, and they will likely have to displace existing players. So assume maybe 2 million extra for the top 2 picks displacing less valuable guys, but those kinds of savings could easily be found by restructuring a deal or 2.
[ Edited by DarkKnight1680 on Feb 14, 2013 at 10:43 AM ]
Whitner and Manningham aren't going anywhere. And it would be very foolish to get rid of the anchor of one of the best offensive lines in the league. They're not foolish, so Goodwin is not going anywhere either. Yes, they may let Harlyson go, Alex Smith is of course not staying and Akers is absolutely gone.
Originally posted by GNielsen:
Whitner and Manningham aren't going anywhere. And it would be very foolish to get rid of the anchor of one of the best offensive lines in the league. They're not foolish, so Goodwin is not going anywhere either. Yes, they may let Harlyson go, Alex Smith is of course not staying and Akers is absolutely gone.

I agree on Goodwin unless they truly believe in Kilgore or Looney or someone in the 1st round of the draft. Whitner and Manningham, I don't know why you're so confident. Both make significant amounts of money, and Manningham is coming off a huge knee injury while Whitner is atrocious in coverage on a team that is more than good enough against the run to trade his production out for a pass-focused safety.

If the Alex-for-Kaep switch has taught us anything, its that everyone's job is up for grabs, whether its due to injury (Mario) or perceived production being far worse than actual production (Whitner). Donte gave up more TDs in coverage than any other safety in the league according to the advanced metrics. He needs to go. Byrd, on the other hand, gave up 0 TDs this season.
I seem to recall that Manningham was pretty productive before he got injured. I his knee hasn't healed, all bets are off. As far as Whitner is concerned, I'm not sure he missed coverage as much as some people think. For example, the defensive call in the Super Bowl was for Whitner to go up and back the guy covering Boldin, not for him to go with Smith, but everyone seems to be blaming Whitner for the Jones catch. Culliver was the one who screwed up that one along with a bunch of other screwups. Culliver wasn't supposed to let Jones get behind him. Then, having let him get behind him, Culliver totally botched finding the ball in the air as he did so many times this season. But, the other reason I think Whitner is staying is because I don't see a lot of safeties around. There are a couple stud safeties in the draft, but I think the first two or three picks are going to be d-linemen.
typo: "IF his knee hasn't healed..."