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1st Down Offensive Production (4+ Yards)

Originally posted by aTx49er:
Only a matter of time before it turns into one of those threads.....

Yeah, pretty soon you'll start seeing people fapping over his tattoos and think it's something new when it comes to NFL players. Oh wait, I just checked the Kaep thread, nevermind it's already started.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Lots of talk today on NFL Network re: how good Percy Harvin would be a fit for us re: returning kicks/punts as well as being ideal running out of the Q formations (in the backfield and out on the edges). I feel we have guys that could have been used like this as well with Manningham, Jenkins and Williams but we didn't use them that way. If we did pick him up, I still feel we need a D.Bowe to be paired opposite of Crabtree. Can you imagine the options we'd have esp. if Hunter comes back healthy and with the growth of James. And Gore finished the season 100% healthy. Very nice...would create much chances on first downs.

None of the guys you mentioned have the size to do what Harvin does. Williams comes close but he wasn't even an option due to injury.
Originally posted by Sugar_Rush:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Lots of talk today on NFL Network re: how good Percy Harvin would be a fit for us re: returning kicks/punts as well as being ideal running out of the Q formations (in the backfield and out on the edges). I feel we have guys that could have been used like this as well with Manningham, Jenkins and Williams but we didn't use them that way. If we did pick him up, I still feel we need a D.Bowe to be paired opposite of Crabtree. Can you imagine the options we'd have esp. if Hunter comes back healthy and with the growth of James. And Gore finished the season 100% healthy. Very nice...would create much chances on first downs.

None of the guys you mentioned have the size to do what Harvin does. Williams comes close but he wasn't even an option due to injury.

Harvin is 5'11" and 184.
Manningham is 6'0" and 185
Williams is 5'10" and 186

Kendall Hunter is the biggest of the bunch @ 5'7" and 199! LOL
[ Edited by NCommand on Feb 11, 2013 at 4:09 PM ]
The decline in 1st down production post QB switch definitely came from the running game. OP is right in that probably had to due with Alex being more experienced putting the team in favorable looks, and the injury to Hunter. Both QB's had phenomenal 1st down and 1st quarter passing stats.

3rd down % was roughly the same, both guys hovering around 36% conversion rate. That's where the biggest improvement needs to be made. We were the best 1st down team in the NFL with Alex, and still one of the best when we switched to Kaep. We set ourselves up for quality 3rd downs all year long, yet our 3rd down % was ranked 22nd. Something needs to be done about that.
[ Edited by SofaKing on Feb 11, 2013 at 5:55 PM ]
Originally posted by SofaKing:
The decline in 1st down production post QB switch definitely came from the running game. OP is right in that probably had to due with Alex being more experienced putting the team in favorable looks, and the injury to Hunter. Both QB's had phenomenal 1st down and 1st quarter passing stats.

3rd down % was roughly the same, both guys hovering around 36% conversion rate. That's where the biggest improvement needs to be made. We were the best 1st down team in the NFL with Alex, and still one of the best when we switched to Kaep. We set ourselves up for quality 3rd downs all year long, yet our 3rd down % was ranked 22nd. Something needs to be done about that.

I'm not sure about the first highlight. Going from 62% to 52% is pretty significant. We were neck-and-neck with NE originally but if I remember correctly, there was quite a drop off after that.

That said, 52% of the time you've only got 6 yards to go (or less). That helps a ton b/c again, it opens up the playbook to running OR passing. And I totally agree with you on 3rd downs. That continues to be an issue for us. I'm taking a shot in the dark but I wonder if the first quarter is where we struggle the most. It seems often too that we're a 3 and out team or driving 98 yards for a TD. Rhythm is SO important esp. for a young offense.
[ Edited by NCommand on Feb 15, 2013 at 11:38 AM ]
Command, I don't think that is a shot in the dark. Question is why we can't get off the dime? Actually, when playing competitive golf, I sucked out of the gate, got better and came on gang busters. Is it mental? Probably so, but judicious playcalling would sure as heck help. The original play in SEA game after K.O. was? a 50+ yard pass in the slop and rain. Really, that was our first play from our 15 yd line? Krap, you and i could have done better than that which then set the tone for the entire game. That was our ugliest call of the entire yr until last 4 plays is SB. And roman is out now explaining the "oddity" of those calls. Oddity? How about stupidity?
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Command, I don't think that is a shot in the dark. Question is why we can't get off the dime? Actually, when playing competitive golf, I sucked out of the gate, got better and came on gang busters. Is it mental? Probably so, but judicious playcalling would sure as heck help. The original play in SEA game after K.O. was? a 50+ yard pass in the slop and rain. Really, that was our first play from our 15 yd line? Krap, you and i could have done better than that which then set the tone for the entire game. That was our ugliest call of the entire yr until last 4 plays is SB. And roman is out now explaining the "oddity" of those calls. Oddity? How about stupidity?

LOL. As to your first point, I certainly think it's a combination of things starting with poor game plans that not targeting the oppositions weaknesses (properly, if at all) initially and perhaps, playing it safe while we ascertain what/how the defense is playing us as well us being a young offense.

Like in golf, if you've got a lot of experience, you aren't going to put yourself in bad positions right out of the gate off the tee. And as you warm up and get into a rhythm it gets rolling and you can have a great round overall. But if you're green, you might shoot yourself in the foot and really struggle and then try to make for it at the end and wonder what your final score would have been if you played a little more cautiously/smarter to start.

I have many concerns/questions myself about Roman but must keep perspective in that he is green too. He now has to help this team build an offensive foundation (whatever that is) and build on it with formations and utilizing the personnel we have to their best. I just hope he learns that the smoke-and-mirrors can sometimes hurt you more than anything and I esp. hope he learns from all his mistakes in 2012 (esp. in the playoffs). It was great experience.
[ Edited by NCommand on Feb 15, 2013 at 11:48 AM ]
Yup, It was, and lest we forget, flacco and john harbaugh had to make 5 trips to postseason to get the SB ring. Well, they got it, but looking at the FAs they have and the money they won't have after signing flacco, the ravens are not a team I would want to be on the next half dozen yrs. The 9ers? Well, they look poised to win it all and keep at it, no matter how hard it is to repeat. I just like what i see, and especially since we are bringing 2 new Dls, 2 new OLs, 2 new DBs, and 8 new WRs into camp. IF we go with that many I figure we will have 3 left by the end of the season.
Originally posted by NCommand:
I'm not sure about the first highlight. Going from 62% to 52% is pretty significant. We were neck-and-neck with NE originally but if I remember correctly, there was quite a drop off after that.

That said, 52% of the time you've only got 6 yards to go (or less). That helps a ton b/c again, it opens up the playbook to running OR passing. And I totally agree with you on 3rd downs. That continues to be an issue for us. I'm taking a shot in the dark but I wonder if the first quarter is where we struggle the most. It seems often too that we're a 3 and out team or driving 98 yards for a TD. Rhythm is SO important esp. for a young offense.

One thing you may want to look at is this same stat in 2011, i don't know the actual numbers but I'm guessing we were pretty horrible. And it seemed like the play calling to start 2012 was a reaction to our deficiencies in 2011. Last offseason there were multiple articles stating that over the offseason the coaching staff placed a large emphasis on 1st down playcalling to avoid 2nd and 3rd and longs. Seemed like they had found Alex's comfortable plays and called those on 1st down to maximize his success.

Insert a new QB and everything goes back to square one in terms of trying to maximize the success of the QB. Add in CK's fondness for going deep and it makes sense that the safer underneath plays were replaced with higher risk higher reward plays. For example, in the first 8 games it would be interesting to see the average yardage of the routes that were being ran compared to those of the last ten games. This isnt intended to knock any QB, but to show that the coaches most likely changed their entire philosophy mid season. A QB who is great throwin underneath should have a higher % than a QB who is more apt to throw downfield, and the game plans should be molded to what each excels at.
Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by NCommand:
I'm not sure about the first highlight. Going from 62% to 52% is pretty significant. We were neck-and-neck with NE originally but if I remember correctly, there was quite a drop off after that.

That said, 52% of the time you've only got 6 yards to go (or less). That helps a ton b/c again, it opens up the playbook to running OR passing. And I totally agree with you on 3rd downs. That continues to be an issue for us. I'm taking a shot in the dark but I wonder if the first quarter is where we struggle the most. It seems often too that we're a 3 and out team or driving 98 yards for a TD. Rhythm is SO important esp. for a young offense.

One thing you may want to look at is this same stat in 2011, i don't know the actual numbers but I'm guessing we were pretty horrible. And it seemed like the play calling to start 2012 was a reaction to our deficiencies in 2011. Last offseason there were multiple articles stating that over the offseason the coaching staff placed a large emphasis on 1st down playcalling to avoid 2nd and 3rd and longs. Seemed like they had found Alex's comfortable plays and called those on 1st down to maximize his success.

Insert a new QB and everything goes back to square one in terms of trying to maximize the success of the QB. Add in CK's fondness for going deep and it makes sense that the safer underneath plays were replaced with higher risk higher reward plays. For example, in the first 8 games it would be interesting to see the average yardage of the routes that were being ran compared to those of the last ten games. This isnt intended to knock any QB, but to show that the coaches most likely changed their entire philosophy mid season. A QB who is great throwin underneath should have a higher % than a QB who is more apt to throw downfield, and the game plans should be molded to what each excels at.

I wholeheartedly agree. Like you noted, this wasn't meant to be a QB comparison per se but a critical stat that was affected by the aforementioned and an area we as an offense need to improve upon going forward. You are 100% in saying the first down production was a major focus in the offseason as Alex stated himself and the goal was clearly accomplished. That said, we had the chemistry between he and VD, Gore was fresh and balanced with Hunter who was tearing it up, we had more weapons in Manningham & Williams, etc. and we had a clear identity. Mid-season everything changed completely. So the goal this off season will be to get this back up around 60+%. Add some more weapons and get Hunter, Manningham, Williams back, insert Jenkins, Lockette and many more, work on your chemistry with VD, etc. and define what our offense is. Create the identity and master it. Continue to grow and we'll get there. This down will open up the playbook on 2nd and 3rd down and with the added weapons (including CK's legs), I'm expecting us to be close to the top not only on 1st down but as a direct result, 3rd downs as well.
Thinly veiled QB thread again. I like Alex as a person. No one has more character and integrity in the NFL. But this Smith slobbering......ugggghhhh

Smith facts:
  • He was the second coming of Steve DeBerg not Joe Montana (my prediction game #3 of Alex's)
  • SF gave him more than he gave back. He never earned the monies paid to him. He was paid the level to win several SBs ... not .500 ball.
  • His Career game is last year against in the playoffs New Orleans. This game didn't define him, it was his career game.
  • He will only be in a SuperBowl game as a backup (another prediction of mine - I still stand by).
  • He needs the perfect situation to have any success. Perfect QB coach, OC and Offensive Line. That was this year. Wasn't as good as Kaps year though so ..... bye.....
  • True Niner fans of all colors, are over Smith. Done. Those who still mourn his loss and his replacement (never his ample mediocre play). Can you really call them Niner fans???? Smith leaves to another team does anyone still believe the Smith faction will disappear? I think it is fair to call their Niner loyalties in question. Smith the Cardinal/Chief/Brown is still your hero?
[ Edited by OldJoe on Feb 20, 2013 at 7:47 PM ]
Originally posted by OldJoe:
Thinly veiled QB thread again. I like Alex as a person. No one has more character and integrity in the NFL. But this Smith slobbering......ugggghhhh

Smith facts:
  • He was the second coming of Steve DeBerg not Joe Montana (my prediction game #3 of Alex's)
  • SF gave him more than he gave back. He never earned the monies paid to him. He was paid the level to win several SBs ... not .500 ball.
  • His Career game is last year against in the playoffs New Orleans. This game didn't define him, it was his career game.
  • He will only be in a SuperBowl game as a backup (another prediction of mine - I still stand by).
  • He needs the perfect situation to have any success. Perfect QB coach, OC and Offensive Line. That was this year. Wasn't as good as Kaps year though so ..... bye.....
  • True Niner fans of all colors, are over Smith. Done. Those who still mourn his loss and his replacement (never his ample mediocre play). Can you really call them Niner fans???? Smith leaves to another team does anyone still believe the Smith faction will disappear? I think it is fair to call their Niner loyalties in question. Smith the Cardinal/Chief/Brown is still your hero?
You did see how the 2011 season ended right?
Originally posted by OldJoe:
Thinly veiled QB thread again.

Not at all. First down production of 4+ yards is a direct result of the QB (run or pass or calling the correct pre-snap reads and audibles), the RB or the WR gaining these yards and putting us in position to keep the playbook open on 2nd and 3rd downs and increasing the likelihood of converting more 3rd downs (or making them irrelevant).
Excellent thread, NC. I agree with that vast majority of your posts, and only wish to expound somewhat on them. With a full off season for CK to prep as the starter, he will get a LOT more comfortable with leading the team. The chemistry is already developing (see: receivers going to ATL to work with him) and the playbook will be molded to his strengths. I have no doubt that this being his first year as the #1, and the coaching staff going in to their 3rd year, the 1st down/3rd down efficiency will improve, probably to what they were at the start of this season. That 4-6 yds on 1st down is tremendous. 2nd and short/3rd and short leaves the playbook wide open. This is also just a W.A.G., but I believe we won't see the Q formation as much as people think next year. Yes, it allows the majority of our playbook to be used, but, I also feel the league will be looking for that formation. CK has shown he can play out of pretty much any formation and be successful, and I'm fairly certain the coaching staff is smart enough to know that.

FWIW IMHO TIFWII
[ Edited by Beeker on Feb 21, 2013 at 3:02 PM ]