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Week 16: Thoughts after rewatching the game...

Ouch. Rough game. I had to rewatch that one fairly quickly to help get over it. Usually when I rewatch a game, its never quite as good or bad as I remember. This was no different

1) Kaepernick: As you might expect, the "bring back Alex Smith" peeps are out again. We will never know if Alex playing would have made a difference. I for one highly doubt it though as Alex does block on Field Goals or play defense. Kaep did not have a good game, but he wasn't the reason the team lost. He made some good throws, some bad throws and probably should have been intercepted more than he was. He also had issues again with the clock. I really think this has alot to do with the way they always try to snap the ball with very little time on the clock. They try to force the D to declare by doing that, but too often Kaep sees the change he wants to make at the line and then doesn't have enough time to make the change.

Yes, Alex Smith handles this better right now, but again, I don't think this is why they lost. This is just why it looked more ugly at times. Anyway, we can call this one a learning experience. These are the kinds of games that a young QB can really learn from. Remember...Russell Wilsons worst game as a pro came against the Niners in their first meeting. Through 6 games, Wilson had 5 TDs and 6 INTs. Since that game, he's been one of the best QBs in the NFL. This move to Kaep was made with January in mind. Their road may have gotten a bit harder, but this team always responds in a big way. This thing aint over by a longshot.

2) The "Pattern": I noticed this thing after week 6 as I'm sure many other have as well, but I've never mentioned it. Win-Win-Loss-Win-Win-Loss-Win-Win-Tie-Win-Win-Loss-Win-Win-Loss. This pattern would have the Niners lose (can't tie) in the second week of the playoffs. Could be the divisional round or the championship game depending on when happens in the GB-Minn game next week. I'm not saying this is what I predict...just saying that would be the pattern. I hope we break that streak, but its become enough of a pattern to make a mention of it.

3) Fatigue: I think the Niners likely would have lost this game regardless, but don't kid yourself...there was some significant fatigue from the Pats game last night...particularly on D. They were just a step slow all night. I'm not trying to make an excuse...they got beat...but they just didn't have the juice they usually do. It was painful to watch...but I think THEY knew it early on too. Seattle came out like this was the Super Bowl and the Niners were barely awake.

4) Justion Smith: This one has me really nervous. I thought the big deal that was made of losing him in the Pats game was overblown. Last night tho....WOAH. We need him back. That D just isn't the same without him. That plus the fatigue...yikes. We also better start looking for Justins replacement. NOW. If this is a sign of what this team will look like when he retires, then we may not sit at the top of the heap for long. The offense will improve and at some point we may not need to depend so greatly on the D to dominate, but we need to look at drafting his eventual replacement THIS YEAR. When that happens tho, I hope we don't hear in this forum about how the guy is a bust because he can't get any playing time. Sigh.

5) Vernon: I dunno if that hit was legal or not. Goldson was flagged AND fined for a very similar hit last week. It was not helmet to helmet, but he did lead with his head and put his head down. I think it was in fact an illegal hit, but I wouldn't bet anything on it. Rergardless, it took a player we could not afford to lose out of the game. They had something going there. If they score on that drive, Its 14-7. Instead the FG is blocked and its 21-0. HUGE difference. Delanie said they had to move him over to Vernons spot after he was hurt and that made a difference....but losing Vernon is a problem even if he isn't cathcing passes. It hurts them in the run game AND pass game. Defenses don't have to account for him deep. We need him back.

6) Manningham: Man, that sucks. Mario has been a clutch player for them this year. Several weeks ago people were complaining about the Niners first 2 picks. Well, now we can be happy that the Niners made them. James and Jenkins are both going to be on the playoff rosters. James is already contributing. Hopefully Jenkins can as well. I don't want to see Ginn playing WR.

7) Harbaugh/Caroll/Sherman: I've had just about enough of this. I dunno if Harbaugh honked at the bus at the 'stick. Frankly I don't care. I can tell you this though...I CAN'T STAND Richard Sherman. His big beef with Harbaugh is that Harbaugh switched him to DB when he wanted to play WR. Yeah...looks like Harbaugh was WAY off the mark on that one SMDH. That dude had a very good game last night and has turned into a very good player...but he needs to shuit the hell up. I never advocate hurting players, but I have to admit I wouldn't shed a tear if someone took out his knees. I guess I can just enjoy the knowledge that he'll be sitting at home when his team is eliminated from the playoffs. I am really annoyed tho that he was even allowed to play in the game. Its a joke that he'll play 3 fulkl games while appealing his suspension. JOKE. As for Carroll, him being portrayed as having class is another big joke. The guy jumped ship from USC just before they were hit with sanctions. Coincidense? I think not. He just ran up the score last week. This thig is going to get ugly at some point and I hope we see that team again in the playoffs...AT THE 'STICK. That stadium is a crazy homefield advantage. Gratz to them for having that, but the Super Bowl is on a neutral Field...so good luck with that.

8) Aldon: I don't quite know what to make of his play the last few weeks. Its easy to say that is drop in production is directly related to Justin not being in there, but I think that may be to simplistic. I think it has more to do with 2 slick tracks, Bradys ability to get rid of the ball quickly and that tempo which has Aldon GASSED, Fran Tarn...err....Russell Wilson, and the Seahawks running the ball ALOT with a big lead. I think he'll be fine, but sadly I think the record might be beyond his grasp. I tink he'll fall just short, just as he did with the rookie record.

9) The NFC West: I think the jokes are over. This division is ROUGH. Just ask the Patriots. I really hate the Seahawks and I hate to say it, but they are here to stay. The Niners had better find a way to beat that team in Seattle or they are going to be thorn in our collective sides for years to come.

10) Lets just chill out a bit: Embarassing loss. No doubt. I was all gloomy after the game too. We need to bounce back here. The Seahawks are a good team, but they aren't THAT good. Put this game in a different field and put Justin Smith in the game and it's a whole different story. If we win this week we still have a chance at the bye and even if we don't get it, that playoff game will be at home. Teams have taken much tought roads to the Super Bowl. Thisd ain't the end peeps...it's juys a bump in the road.


EDIT: ANYONE KNOW HOW TO PM THE MODS IN ORDER TO ASK TIS BE MADE OFFICIAL? THEY ASKED ME TO DO SO, BUT CAN'T FIGURE OUT HOW.
[ Edited by Marvin49 on Dec 24, 2012 at 10:55 AM ]
The injuries are what concerns me with the 49ers and the Seahwaks will never win anything if they can't win on the road.
[ Edited by SanFranFanfrmVa on Dec 24, 2012 at 10:57 AM ]
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Ouch. Rough game. I had to rewatch that one fairly quickly to help get over it. Usually when I rewatch a game, its never quite as good or bad as I remember. This was no different

1) Kaepernick: As you might expect, the "bring back Alex Smith" peeps are out again. We will never know if Alex playing would have made a difference. I for one highly doubt it though as Alex does block on Field Goals or play defense. Kaep did not have a good game, but he wasn't the reason the team lost. He made some good throws, some bad throws and probably should have been intersepted more than he was. He also has issues again with the clock. I really think this has alot to do with the way they always try to snap the ball with very little time on the clock. They try to force the D to declare by doing that, but too often Kaep sees the change he wants to make at the line and then doesn't have enough time to make the change.

Yes, Alex Smith handles this better right now, but again, I don't think this is why they lost. This is just why it looked more ugly at times. Anyway, we can call this one a learning experience. These are the kinds of games that a young QB can really learn from. Remember...Russell Wilsons worst game as a pro came against the Niners in their first meeting. Through 6 games, Wilson had 5 TDs and 6 INTs. Since that game, he's been one of the best QBs in the NFL. This move to Kaep was made with January in mind. Their road may have gotten a bit harder, but this team always responds in a big way. This thing aint over by a longshot.

2) The "Pattern": I noticed this thing after week 6 as I'm sure many other have as well, but I've never mentioned it. Win-Win-Loss-Win-Win-Loss-Win-Win-Tie-Win-Win-Loss-Win-Win-Loss. This pattern would have the Niners lose (can't tie) in the second week of the playoffs. Could be the divisional round or the championship game depending on when happens in the GB-Minn game next week. I'm not saying this is what I predict...just saying that would be the pattern. I hope we break that streak, but its become enough of a pattern to make a mention of it.

3) Fatigue: I think the Niners likely would have lost tis game regardless, but don't kid yourself...there was some significant fatigue from the Pats game last night...particularly on D. They were just a step slow all night. I'm not trying to make an excuse...they got beat...but they just didn't have the juice they usually do. It was painful to watch...but I think THEY knew it early on too. Seattle came out like this was the Super Bowl and the Niners were barely awake.

4) Justion Smith: This one has me really nervous. I thought the big deal that was made of losing him in the Pats game was overblown. Last night tho....WOAH. We need him back. That D just isn't the same without him. That plus the fatigue...yikes. We also better start looking for Justins replacement. NOW. If this is a sign of what this team will look like when he retires, then we may not sit at the top of the heap for long. The offense will improve and at some point we may not need to depend so greatly on the D to dominate, but we need to look at drafting his eventual replacement THIS YEAR. When that happens tho, I hope we don't hear in this forum about how the guy is a bust because he can't get any playing time. Sigh.

5) Vernon: I dunno if that hit was legal or not. Goldson was flagged AND fined for a very similar hit last week. It was not helmet to helmet, but he did lead with his head and put his head down. I think it was in fact an illegal hit, but I wouldn't bet anything on it. Rergardless, it took a player we could not afford to lose out of the game. They had something going there. If they score on that drive, Its 14-7. Instead the FG is blocked and its 21-0. HUGE difference. Delanie said they had to move him over to Vernons spot after he was hurt and that made a difference....but losing Vernon is a problem even if he isn't cathcing passes. It hurts them in the run game AND pass game. Defenses don't have to account for him deep. We need him back.

6) Manningham: Man, that sucks. Mario has been a clutch player for them this year. Several weeks ago peoploe were complaining about the Niners first 2 picks. Well, now we can be happy that the Niners made them. James and Jenkins are both going to be on the playoff rosters. James is already contributing. Hopefully Jenkins can as well. I don't want to see Ginn playing WR.

7) Harbaugh/Caroll/Sherman: I've had just about enough of this. I dunno if Harbaugh honked at the bus at the 'stick. Frankly I don't care. I can tell you this though...I CAN'T STAND Richard Sherman. His big beef with Harbaugh is that Harbaugh switched him to DB when he wanted to play WR. Yeah...looks like Harbaugh was WAY off the mark on that one SMDH. That dude had a very good game last night and has turned into a very good player...but he needs to shuit the hell up. I never advocate hurting players, but I have to admit I wouldn't shed a tear if someone took out his knees. I guess I can just enjoy the knowledge that he'll be sitting at home when his team is eliminated from the playoffs. I am really annoyed tho that he was even allowed to play in the game. Its a joke that he'll play 3 fulkl games while appealing his suspension. JOKE. As for Carroll, him being portrayed as having class is another big joke. The guy jumped ship from USC just before they were hit with sanctions. Coincidense? I think not. He just ran up the score last week. This thig is going to get ugly at some point and I hope we see that team again in the playoffs...AT THE 'STICK. That stadium is a crazy homefield advantage. Gratz to them for having that, but the Super Bowl is on a neutral Field...so good luck with that.

8) Aldon: I don't quite know what to make of his play the last few weeks. Its easy to say that is drop in production is directly related to Justin not being in there, but I think that may be to simplistic. I think it has more to do with 2 slick tracks, Bradys ability to get rid of the ball quickly and that tempo which has Aldon GASSED, Fran Tarn...err....Russell Wilson, and the Seahawks running the ball ALOT with a big lead. I think he'll be fine, but sadly I think the record might be beyond his grasp. I tink he'll fall just short, just as he did with the rookie record.

9) The NFC West: I think the jokes are over. This division is ROUGH. Just ask the Patriots. I really hate the Seahawks and I hate to say it, but they are here to stay. The Niners had better find a way to beat that team in Seattle or they are going to be thorn in our collective sides for years to come.

10) Lets just chill out a bit: Embarassing loss. No doubt. I was all gloomy after the game too. We need to bounce back here. The Seahawks are a good team, but they aren't THAT good. Put this game in a different field and put Justin Smith in the game and it's a whole different story. If we win this week we still have a chance at the bye and even if we don't get it, that playoff game will be at home. Teams have taken much tought roads to the Super Bowl. Thisd ain't the end peeps...it's juys a bump in the road.


EDIT: ANYONE KNOW HOW TO PM THE MODS IN ORDER TO ASK TIS BE MADE OFFICIAL? THEY ASKED ME TO DO SO, BUT CAN'T FIGURE OUT HOW.

marvin--i respect your views and look forward to your post game threads...as far as the analysis of the qb that you usually lead off with, in a related manner do you have any thoughts on whether the Niners changed their offensive philosphy when they made the qb switch ---it seems they have drifted away from the power running game with gore following miller's lead blocks or getting wham blocks from walker and boone'iupati and more to this read option, diamond formation stuff--it seems to me at best the qb play itself has been a wash (with a loss of smith's experience) while the team has really weakened its core strength, the running game
I think, even through the playoffs (unless we play SEA) Kaep has seen the worst or best, how you want to look at it, in terms of defenses and environments. The next stage for him will be uphill.
Couldn't agree more on four. Hopefully Baalke finds us a good five technique in April.
We were humiliated. Week 16 is not the time for CK to be having "learning experiences" when we want to make a Super Bowl run. This change should never have been made until next year. There's not a snowballs chance in Hades that we make it through back to back ferocious playoff crowds in Green Bay and Atlanta with Kaepernick at the helm. I just don't see it.

I know, it's all opinion, but that is my gut feeling. I love my team to death and it frustrates me like no other to have to sit here and feel like we made a mistake that is going to cost us at the very least a deep run into the post-season.
Thanks Marvin. It's very hard to think about last night. I'm trying not to let it get to me to bad or that $h!t a$$ team wins again! I really hope the Niners will be ok. But i really have my doubts now. If this season is gonna finish better. The football gods will let us win and Vikes win next sunday. Time will tell. Go NINERS!
[ Edited by PA49ersfan on Dec 24, 2012 at 11:14 AM ]
Originally posted by Marvin49:

7) Harbaugh/Caroll/Sherman: I've had just about enough of this. I dunno if Harbaugh honked at the bus at the 'stick. Frankly I don't care. I can tell you this though...I CAN'T STAND Richard Sherman. His big beef with Harbaugh is that Harbaugh switched him to DB when he wanted to play WR. Yeah...looks like Harbaugh was WAY off the mark on that one SMDH. That dude had a very good game last night and has turned into a very good player...but he needs to shuit the hell up. I never advocate hurting players, but I have to admit I wouldn't shed a tear if someone took out his knees. I guess I can just enjoy the knowledge that he'll be sitting at home when his team is eliminated from the playoffs. I am really annoyed tho that he was even allowed to play in the game. Its a joke that he'll play 3 fulkl games while appealing his suspension. JOKE. As for Carroll, him being portrayed as having class is another big joke. The guy jumped ship from USC just before they were hit with sanctions. Coincidense? I think not. He just ran up the score last week. This thig is going to get ugly at some point and I hope we see that team again in the playoffs...AT THE 'STICK. That stadium is a crazy homefield advantage. Gratz to them for having that, but the Super Bowl is on a neutral Field...so good luck with that.




REALLY

is that what it's about?

yes harbaugh can be an a*s. but carroll is worse. in no way was ditching USC a coincidence.
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*** Seahawks had their way with us on third downs and that's why we lost. Carlos Rogers had his worst game.

Aldon Smith I didnot expect him to sack Brady the way he gets the ball out quickly. In this game he had opportunities to get a sack, but Wilson found ways to escape. sure Justin not being there to help on the stunt hurts but against Seahawks they were not going to do that move, cause Wilson would run outside if the end commits inside.

Lamichael James was the only bright spot! Kaepernick had issues but still is the best Qb and all these road games will help them in the play offs because they will have to travel if they are going to win a Championship!
Marv, great comments as always. I am surpised however that you didn't think the loss of Justin Smith wasn't going to have this effect. Since Lynch has run well against the team in the past I figured he was going to well exceed 100yds with Cowboy out and Wilson at QB. I wasn't surprised at all by the loss or by the butt kicking we got up there.
Especially when you consider our defense played a game and a half against NE. Add in the poor blocking on the field goal that resulted in a td and it got ugly early.
Only a little surprised with Kaep, but I also thought he would struggle against that D and the noise. First time he had that look in his eye that he was overmatched.
I'm fairly sure Alex playing wouldn't have made a lot of difference although he wouldn't have been as rattled and maybe the game would have been closer. We will never know.
I didn't feel good about the change but Kaep has played well enough up to now to warrent it.
Anybody who thought Seattle wasn't this good hasn't been watching their games lately ie. going into Chicago and beating the Bears and putting up 50 points in back to back games even though they were against weak teams.
The injuries have me really concerned as well.
Keeping my fingers crossed for the post season.
Im not gonna over analyze this game Im just gonna say they wanted it more than our guys did.
Originally posted by susweel:
Im not gonna over analyze this game Im just gonna say they wanted it more than our guys did.

pretty much.
I wonder if it would have made a difference if our defense started the game. The defense is the heart of this team and they can set the tone. By the time the defense saw the field, they were backed up on their own 35.

But instead, the offense starts the game and they go 3 straight incomplete passes, then punt and get a 15 yard penalty
Marvin, I would have understood if you had just felt like skipping this game, but your post was one of the longest and best you have written. Not much to disagree with. Your analysis of Kaep versus Alex is totally reasonable. I think the D was tired and the blocked FG was partly bad luck. The WWLWWL pattern is mostly coincidence, like the old idea that the stock market would go up in years where the NFC won the SB. Or maybe it was the AFC. Anyway, it was totally predictive for >20 years, then not so much.
Originally posted by ClassicNiner:
Marvin, I would have understood if you had just felt like skipping this game, but your post was one of the longest and best you have written. Not much to disagree with. Your analysis of Kaep versus Alex is totally reasonable. I think the D was tired and the blocked FG was partly bad luck. The WWLWWL pattern is mostly coincidence, like the old idea that the stock market would go up in years where the NFC won the SB. Or maybe it was the AFC. Anyway, it was totally predictive for >20 years, then not so much.

we usually run the ball less every third game also (minus 2nd rams game).......i've been wondering if that's by design to let the RB's rest....... i dunno.