Originally posted by vaden:
I've seen Brady dominate in blizzards. Bad weather is nothing to him. Conversely, Kaep fumbles routinely in perfect weather.
This point has been a matter of some discussion on Pats boards for several seasons. Brady and Belichick have also both chimed in on it.
'Bad weather' is not a single thing. What really hampers passing offense is wind. Brady is of the opinion that snow actually favors passing over running, because it makes it harder for players to keep their footing - less leverage for o-linemen drive blocking, likewise for pass rushers. There's clearly an element of being used to it at play, as well. The Patriots have put up 59 in a snow game before, though obviously against *much* lesser competition than these Niners. (They also put up 47 on the '08 Cardinals in the snow with Matt Cassel at QB, and that Cards team of course made the Superbowl).
The key factor in this game, I believe, will be how well SF can throw the ball. The 'pound the rock, keep Brady off the field' plan sounds superficially appealing, until you realize the Pats can defend the run MUCH better than the pass. The longest run New England has allowed all year is 23 yards. The converse is that Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Peyton Manning (unsurprisingly), Buttfumble Sanchez, Joe Flacco and Andrew Luck have all been able to put up 300 yard passing games on them. Seattle, who as you know are a running team, managed to beat the Pats in a game where Marshawn Lynch was held to 41 yards.