Quantifying the Explosive Play

But Kaep has Tattoos

Originally posted by HornedToad10:

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by HornedToad10:
It's funny what stats say with small sample sizes. At this point there isn't enough info on Kaep to conclusively say either way. Take Alex's first 3 games of the season and he'd look alot better. Or throw out Giants and Seahawaks and he looks alot better. We'll see what Kaep settles into after ~10-16 games to get a much better idea of what to expect in future. Cam Newton was absolutely dynamic for the first 5 games then fell apart. Alex looked like one of the top QB's in the league the first ~5 games this year and then started struggling.

I think we need more sample points before we can say much about stats yet. I think Kaep looks great, but don't think it's as open and shut as being presented.

Actually, Kaepernicks first three games are better than Smith's first three games

I actually meant he'd look better than he does in this comparison, not better than Kaep. My point stands regardless, we don't have enough data to make any conclusions, just that Kaep is looking very good and hopefully continues to get better. Alex has been better than he gets credit for though, IMO.

I'm only getting into this because the whole premise of this thread is based on statistics - an oft misapplied, misunderstood, and misinterpreted subject, to say the least.

When it comes to sample size, anything over 30 events is rather strong. Since the OP is using a "play" as an event, and has hundreds of events, we do indeed have more than a sufficient sample size. If, however, you are suggesting that an event should be an entire game, then we will need to wait 2 more seasons with CK as the starter to get to the magic "30" minimum sample size needed to do a strong comparison between CK and AS based on games started.

Awesome thread, thanks.

Originally posted by Lobo49er:

I'm only getting into this because the whole premise of this thread is based on statistics - an oft misapplied, misunderstood, and misinterpreted subject, to say the least.

When it comes to sample size, anything over 30 events is rather strong. Since the OP is using a "play" as an event, and has hundreds of events, we do indeed have more than a sufficient sample size. If, however, you are suggesting that an event should be an entire game, then we will need to wait 2 more seasons with CK as the starter to get to the magic "30" minimum sample size needed to do a strong comparison between CK and AS based on games started.

Awesome thread, thanks.

A game is a group of events.

Originally posted by nickbradley:
A game is a group of events.

I agree; again, really nice thread.

Great post

My head hurts after reading that, good post.

Kaep is hard to predict. Alex can be gameplanned for, the Giants coaches know him well. I'm sure coaches around the league are concerned a ittle more about our passing attack.

Originally posted by LottOfDefense:
My head hurts after reading that, good post.

Mine too! But great post.

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by SFTifoso:
So you're telling me that when a defense is gassed, and they have the opposing team in a 3rd and long situation, and then that team proceeds to convert on a 20 or 30 yard play, it doesn't affect the defense in any way, shape, or form?

Well technically the empirical studies have shown that a turnover doesn't change the momentum.

But the same principle should apply to big plays

SFTifoso, I think what you're referring to in this particular situation is player "morale." We have to be careful about the term "momentum" because when you use that term in a specifically statistical sense, Nickbradley is correct (like the result of one coin flip not effecting the next). However, I think what you are correctly referring to is the fact that when a defense gets stabbed by a QB who is able to extend plays and convert on a crucial 3rd-and-long, it can and will often psychologically demoralize a defense.

Originally posted by goldrush49:

Kaep is hard to predict. Alex can be gameplanned for, the Giants coaches know him well. I'm sure coaches around the league are concerned a ittle more about our passing attack.

Agree. They know on 3rd & long we are actually gonna try to get it & not settle to punt everytime and depend on the defense.

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by GORO:
The 49er Offense under Harbaugh picks it's shots when they go deep. So Alex has had big chunks of yardage, but he is really bad on third downs, he seems content to take a sack then to throw under durress.

Kaepernick will have more long yardage plays converted because he is willing and mentally he believes a Qb should be like Favre. So by season end we can compare their stats and see the difference.

Um, Alex Smith was godawful on third and 4th down. His EPA/play on 3rd and 4th down? NEGATIVE -0.05, a total of NEGATIVE 3.72. Kaepernick: 0.6 EPA/play, for a total of 16.39.

Strange data point: Alex Smith is better than Kaepernick on SECOND DOWN. Wierd?

All the little data anomalies will work themselves out in the next few weeks.