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49ers offense would benefit from mathematics

  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,929
So, based on this, if it is 4th and 5 (or less), go for it if you are on your own 45 or better. This would assume an average offense and an average defense. Since the 49ers have a poor short yardage offense, and a great defense (and a great punter), the numbers would shift more towards punting the ball. I imagine if you did the same analysis for college football, it would more strongly indicate going for it on 4th down.

As for the Bills, last I heard they had an above average offense, and they have an awful defense as we saw ourselves.
Originally posted by fryet:
So, based on this, if it is 4th and 5 (or less), go for it if you are on your own 45 or better. This would assume an average offense and an average defense. Since the 49ers have a poor short yardage offense, and a great defense (and a great punter), the numbers would shift more towards punting the ball. I imagine if you did the same analysis for college football, it would more strongly indicate going for it on 4th down.

As for the Bills, last I heard they had an above average offense, and they have an awful defense as we saw ourselves.

Still, all these number change if you plan on always going for it, you change your play calling on all 3 previous downs, you no longer have to average 3.34 yards per play, you only need 2.25....
This flies in the face of Harbaugh's philosophy of gaining field position. If you fail on the 45 you give your opponent a very short field and a great shot at a FG with minimal yards gained. It also assumes 4th and short...or should they go on 4th and ten, after a first down holding penalty? With Lee as our punter it makes sense to use field position to pin the team back to their own ten so they have 90 yards to gain for a TD. Is that factored in anywhere?

Seems very theoretical set of stats...or better said, limited stats to create a theory.
Who needs math? We just improved at QB.

This passing game has gone from an efficient Hill to an intimidating Mountain!
Yes. NFL offenses, in aggregate, do not go for it on 4th down enough.

however, something that will calm down the zone is that the quality of your defense is also factored in, I.e. teams with crappy defenses should go for it more than the 49ers should
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Yes. NFL offenses, in aggregate, do not go for it on 4th down enough.

however, something that will calm down the zone is that the quality of your defense is also factored in, I.e. teams with crappy defenses should go for it more than the 49ers should

Not sure what one has to do with the other. If your defense is good, that means they are more likely to get a stop, and it won't matter as much if you fail on 4th down. Either way, it allows for more points to be scored, which is the point of an offense.
I don't think any offense should assume 4th and goal in the redzone should be an automatic FG attempt. Only the men on the field know for sure if it's the right thing to "GO FOR IT".