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Are the Niners better than they were last year?

  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 32,370
Originally posted by jcashen87:
Originally posted by sacniner:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Yeah, we're BETTER in 2012. 107 points allowed through 7 games last year, 100 this year. AND, we allowed a punt return (technically, it was BS) against the Packers, so our defense has allowed 93 points in 7 games.

15% more more defensive points allowed per game through 7 games last year, bro. We're better on D.

And on offense, we scored two special teams TDs vs Seattle last year. So, our offense only scored 5% more points per game last year. That EVAPORATES if David Akers makes the same Field Goal % as last year. 15/17 through 7 games last year, 13/18 this year. ** If Akers had the same FG% through 7 games this year as he did through 7 games last year, offensive points scored would be IDENTICAL -- 165 points through 7 games.

*** We lack consistency.

Dude, your stats don't tell the entire story. Who did we play the first seven games this year and last? Our schedule is much more difficult. What was the context of each game (i.e. garbage time TDs?). Teams actually get up for us this year. When talking football, stats don't always give you the entire picture. That is what you think and it ain't true. There is some color outside of the grey area. Maybe your football bars aren't on point to realize this stuff.

Again, on offense I said we are slightly better. So, what is your point?

And, just to let you know, not saying your stats and numbers are wrong but I don't know if they are completely right cause I have to take your word for it.

hahaha, i think Nick Bradley thought you were saying our offense was worse ebcause of yards per VS QBR, honestly think you guys are going toe to toe for no reason. In fact sac was talking about how our DEFENSE was better for giving up less yards and points etc. Kind of a hostile mis understanding, and to call his post idiotic was just crazy, everyone can make a point and they dont have to sit and collect more exotic stats to do so. just watch the games and you will know what you need too. and focus on points allowed VS points scored mostly.
sac and nick are both good guys, i hope they call a truce
Originally posted by sacniner:
Dude, your stats don't tell the entire story. Who did we play the first seven games this year and last? Our schedule is much more difficult. What was the context of each game (i.e. garbage time TDs?). Teams actually get up for us this year. When talking football, stats don't always give you the entire picture. That is what you think and it ain't true. There is some color outside of the grey area. Maybe your football bars aren't on point to realize this stuff.

Again, on offense I said we are slightly better. So, what is your point?

And, just to let you know, not saying your stats and numbers are wrong but I don't know if they are completely right cause I have to take your word for it.

A good way to refute an argument is just deny empirical data has relevance to the conversation. That's what you're doing.

Yes, out schedule is tougher this year. Adjusted SOS for us so far is .570 -- Adj. SOS factors out games vs. the 49ers. Last year's first 7 games, .506.
- So while it was an easier schedule, we didn't play the dregs of the NFL. Dallas, Cincy, Philly, and Detroit were all good teams last year, Seattle was decent -- we played awful Bucs and Browns teams last year.
Originally posted by jcashen87:
hahaha, i think Nick Bradley thought you were saying our offense was worse ebcause of yards per VS QBR, honestly think you guys are going toe to toe for no reason. In fact sac was talking about how our DEFENSE was better for giving up less yards and points etc. Kind of a hostile mis understanding, and to call his post idiotic was just crazy, everyone can make a point and they dont have to sit and collect more exotic stats to do so. just watch the games and you will know what you need too. and focus on points allowed VS points scored mostly.

Yeah, I take back 'idiotic' -- I thought he was saying that passing yards per game is more important than QB Rating (which would be an idiotic statement).
Originally posted by cciowa:
lucky that lee was able to punt and hold with a broken thumb. sounds like that is ok now. i am sticking my head in the sand about our field goals we have missed. i do not want to face a possible decline by our kicker

umm, do we draft Dustin Hopkins in the third round this year?
Originally posted by jcashen87:
hahaha, i think Nick Bradley thought you were saying our offense was worse ebcause of yards per VS QBR, honestly think you guys are going toe to toe for no reason. In fact sac was talking about how our DEFENSE was better for giving up less yards and points etc. Kind of a hostile mis understanding, and to call his post idiotic was just crazy, everyone can make a point and they dont have to sit and collect more exotic stats to do so. just watch the games and you will know what you need too. and focus on points allowed VS points scored mostly.

Haha, yes, that is what I was concluding as I read through. Relax guys, and thanks for the insights. It was good stuff, but certainly needed no hostility.
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
Originally posted by hondakillerzx:
i think last years niners were a little better. i dont know why but they just were. defense came up with hella turnovers, VD went off, Gore was Gore. this year Gore is still himself, VD has disappeared and we went from having nameless receivers who do nothing to big name receivers who do nothing. defense is still excellent but last years just seemed like it was a little better

Yet one constant remains......

not even gonna disagree with u there man. smith needs to man up and roman needs to start calling some deeper passing routes
Originally posted by hondakillerzx:
not even gonna disagree with u there man. smith needs to man up and roman needs to start calling some deeper passing routes

Teams game-plan for Vernon Davis, and only Moss and Williams get separation.

I call for more screen plays; we don't do nearly enough. We have like 38 running backs on this team, let's do it. It will slow down the pass rush and force safeties to focus on the middle of the field. That should allow someone like Moss to break out.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Teams game-plan for Vernon Davis, and only Moss and Williams get separation.

I call for more screen plays; we don't do nearly enough. We have like 38 running backs on this team, let's do it. It will slow down the pass rush and force safeties to focus on the middle of the field. That should allow someone like Moss to break out.

Plus, our OL have very good ability when getting out deep for downfield blocks.

( gotta kick Goodwin in the arse and get him out there in a more timely fashion sometimes.. but still.. )
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
Plus, our OL have very good ability when getting out deep for downfield blocks.

( gotta kick Goodwin in the arse and get him out there in a more timely fashion sometimes.. but still.. )

Activate LaMichael James if you have to.
I don't think we are better than last year for a few reasons. #1 - it will be next to impossible to reproduce the turnover ratio that we had last year. #2 - reduced pass rush because Aldon is playing every down this year. #3 - Alex Smith who needs his own paragraph below...

Alex, Alex, Alex.... it all boils down to a few faults that have been beat to death already but here we go again. #1 is Consistancy. Seems as if Alex gets into a rhythm only 2-3 drives per game. #2 is Confidence. Even after a strong performance (see the Buffalo game) Alex has a tough time maintaining confidence. It's almost like he has anti-swagger. It's almost impossible for Alex to put the team on his shoulders and carry them to a win. Doubt he'll ever be this type of QB. #3 - Poor decision making when the play breaks down. Alex will never be mistaken for Big Ben in the pocket. When pressured, Alex takes his eyes off his receivers and starts watching the defenders who are chasing him instead of keeping his eyes downfield.

I think we are good enough to make it into the playoffs. I predict we win one playoff game and lose the second one so we won't advance as far as we did last year. Reason? Inconsistant Alex Smith will come back to bite us.
[ Edited by pete98146 on Oct 26, 2012 at 11:58 AM ]
The team is the same, its the opposition's view of us thats changed....the results you see on the field are a direct result of that.

Last year, we were the Cinderella story. Teams took us for granted, and they paid for it (see Eagles). This year, every team comes to play us like they have something to prove. We're THE measuring stick in the NFC (along with the Giants and Packers), and so teams come to play us from whistle to whistle. In terms of defense, not much has dropped off, and this is an attribute to how good our defense is. Offensively, our rushing attack is just as great. STs you cant really judge because the unit is comprised of individual talent, so it looks like a downgrade when Akers isnt making his kicks or when our return game suffers.

Now, the REAL issue (and what determines whether or not we're an upgrade or downgrade from last year) is our offensive attack. Has Alex Smith regressed ? No, not at all. Its just that teams respect him more, and are daring him to pass. And this is where we have to differentiate between "regression" and "hit his ceiling". Alex has NOT regressed; he has reached his ceiling. We've known this his entire career, it was just that some of us were hoping that he would be a lot more once he was in a comfortable system.

Unfortunately for us (and him), Alex is basically a glorified game manager. I wouldnt put him in the same category as Jon Kitna or Kyle Orton, but he's basically a Brad Johnson of the NFL. Will do enough not to let you lose, but not enough to help you win. In between, some miraculous games cancelled out by an equal amount of horrible games.

So the real question to answer here is........can you sustain a DYNASTY with this caliber of quarterbacking. Well, history tells us NO....wait, correction....a RESOUNDING NO ! Every great dynasty in the NFL has been led by a HOF QB. Every great franchise in the history of the NFL that had a chance to be a dynasty (see Ravens 00s / Bucs 00s) was not.

I know a lot us have always HOPED that Alex could be a lot more, but he just isnt. And for the short term (this season), this is fine. But if we do not want to waste the talent on this roster in the long run, it would be best if we parted ways with him at seasons end.
  • Silky
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 10,297
I think that the Giants game has left a sour taste in peoples mouths so everyone is thinking the 2011 team is better. IMO the 2012 offense is better than 2011 offense, but the 2011 defense is better than 2012 defense. Obviously the 2011 ST is better than 2012 ST, but by the end of the year we will be talking about how much better this 2012 team is than 2011
Originally posted by pete98146:
I don't think we are better than last year for a few reasons. #1 - it will be next to impossible to reproduce the turnover ratio that we had last year. #2 - reduced pass rush because Aldon is playing every down this year. #3 - Alex Smith who needs his own paragraph below...

Alex, Alex, Alex.... it all boils down to a few faults that have been beat to death already but here we go again. #1 is Consistancy. Seems as if Alex gets into a rhythm only 2-3 drives per game. #2 is Confidence. Even after a strong performance (see the Buffalo game) Alex has a tough time maintaining confidence. It's almost like he has anti-swagger. It's almost impossible for Alex to put the team on his shoulders and carry them to a win. Doubt he'll ever be this type of QB. #3 - Poor decision making when the play breaks down. Alex will never be mistaken for Big Ben in the pocket. When pressured, Alex takes his eyes off his receivers and starts watching the defenders who are chasing him instead of keeping his eyes downfield.

I think we are good enough to make it into the playoffs. I predict we win one playoff game and lose the second one so we won't advance as far as we did last year. Reason? Inconsistant Alex Smith will come back to bite us.

We've more than offset the 'reversion to the mean' with turnovers by running the ball like gangbusters. We're the best in the NFL by far, and one of the best teams in modern NFL history at running. Last year, we were middling at best.

Just calm down, take a breath, and remember that we're a run-and-defense team, not a pass-first team. We're more like the 90s Cowboys and the 80s Redskins than the 80s and 90s 49ers...
Originally posted by Ninefan56:
We are winning games and overcoming other teams and our own mistakes. Good enough for me.

problem is that' we're making more mistakes this year..............
Originally posted by ApatheticIAm:
I think that the Giants game has left a sour taste in peoples mouths so everyone is thinking the 2011 team is better. IMO the 2012 offense is better than 2011 offense, but the 2011 defense is better than 2012 defense. Obviously the 2011 ST is better than 2012 ST, but by the end of the year we will be talking about how much better this 2012 team is than 2011

The 2011 defense wasn't any better than this year's. Exclude the non-offensive TDs, and we allowed 107 points through 7 games in 2011, but 93 in 2012. 15.3 points per game vs. 13.3 points per game. Opponent QB rating through 7 games is the same as it was through all of 2011.

*** through the first 7 games of 2011, we allowed an opponent QB rating of 80. 73.6 this year.
[ Edited by nickbradley on Oct 26, 2012 at 12:40 PM ]