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Are the Niners better than they were last year?

We are worse. Our special teams is horrific. Alex has regressed to his rookie year level. I see no playoff wins for this team at the present rate. Now of course things can change over time and come together. Cutting all our special teams aces so we could keep guys on the roster who never dress was a mistake. Not sure what is up with Alex lately. He was better last year. I expected better still this year with 2 years in the system.
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
We are worse. Our special teams is horrific. Alex has regressed to his rookie year level. I see no playoff wins for this team at the present rate. Now of course things can change over time and come together. Cutting all our special teams aces so we could keep guys on the roster who never dress was a mistake. Not sure what is up with Alex lately. He was better last year. I expected better still this year with 2 years in the system.

This is unreal. I just can not believe you could possibly be serious with a post like this.
Yes - We're much better than last year.

However, we aren't getting 'random' events to go our way. We have regressed to the mean with fumble recoveries and field goals.

** We are also far less consistent - this is a fact. In 2011, according to Footballoutsiders.com, we were the fourth most consistent team on offense, defense, and special teams combined. This year? 30th! On Defense we've dropped from 9th to 22nd in consistency. On Offense, 16th to 31st in consistency.

This INCONSISTENCY has been offset by *massive gains in actual performance:
- Offense -- 13th in passing and 24th in rushing in 2011, 11th in passing and #1 (by a mile) in rushing in 2012. Pass Offense went from 15.3% in 2011 to 19.2% in 2012. Rush offense went from a paltry -7.3% in 2011 to 30% in 2012! I'm looking at Alex Boone as the difference-maker.
- Defense -- 6th in pass D and 2nd in rush D in 2011, 6th in Pass D in 2011 and 5th in run D in 2012. Our pass Defense is actually "twice as good" measured as DVOA (-7.6% in 2011 to -13.8% in 2012), but the rest of the league is better too. Run Defense is Almost the same in DVOA (- 24.5% in 2012, -26% in 2011).
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
We are worse. Our special teams is horrific. Alex has regressed to his rookie year level. I see no playoff wins for this team at the present rate. Now of course things can change over time and come together. Cutting all our special teams aces so we could keep guys on the roster who never dress was a mistake. Not sure what is up with Alex lately. He was better last year. I expected better still this year with 2 years in the system.

I expect better after 32,000 posts.
I think SD made a good point. We were good last year obviously, but we had the ball bounce our way more. As has been well documented in the offseason, our TO rate had to decrease. Also, (keeping fingers crossed) we were really lucky on the injury front. This year, we have remained pretty healthy. But, our TO rate has decreased. And our sack rate. Although, our defense is just as good. And our offense is slightly better than the end of last year. Our run game has got even better and our passing game has gotten slightly better IMO (still needs to improve on a consistent basis).

Our special teams is not as good in every aspect. But, overall, I think we are better this year. This question cannot truly be answered until after the playoffs. For me, this year, it's basically super bowl or bust. I won't be truly happy unless we win the super bowl. How is that for lofty expectations?
Originally posted by WookieOftheYear:

Thanks for posting. Kind of what I thought. Our defnese is allowing less yards, with less sacks. They are blitzing a lot less this year I think and keeping more in coverage. And, if you are giving up less points and less yards you can't argue with that formula.
Originally posted by sacniner:
I think SD made a good point. We were good last year obviously, but we had the ball bounce our way more. As has been well documented in the offseason, our TO rate had to decrease. Also, (keeping fingers crossed) we were really lucky on the injury front. This year, we have remained pretty healthy. But, our TO rate has decreased. And our sack rate. Although, our defense is just as good. And our offense is slightly better than the end of last year. Our run game has got even better and our passing game has gotten slightly better IMO (still needs to improve on a consistent basis).

Our special teams is not as good in every aspect. But, overall, I think we are better this year. This question cannot truly be answered until after the playoffs. For me, this year, it's basically super bowl or bust. I won't be truly happy unless we win the super bowl. How is that for lofty expectations?

noooo!

Last year, our opponents' QB rating was 73.6. Through 7 games of 2012? 73.6.

We're just rushing fewer guys, sitting in nickel. less sacks, but so what?
Originally posted by nickbradley:
noooo!

Last year, our opponents' QB rating was 73.6. Through 7 games of 2012? 73.6.

We're just rushing fewer guys, sitting in nickel. less sacks, but so what?

F*ck QB rating. Very misleading. Look at yards per game and points per game, it's down. I think our defense is as good as last years, even with fewer sacks. I love sacks a lot, especially in those crucial moments. But, just cause we have less sacks doesn't mean that we are worse on defense. Maybe opposing QB rating would be higher if we blitz more?

I for one knew that Carlos Rogers had a career year last year, and while he is still good, he would never have that type of year again. It's not bad to have some help back there for the CBs....
Originally posted by sacniner:
Thanks for posting. Kind of what I thought. Our defnese is allowing less yards, with less sacks. They are blitzing a lot less this year I think and keeping more in coverage. And, if you are giving up less points and less yards you can't argue with that formula.

Identical opposing QB rating (2012 vs. ALL of 2011). 73.6.

30% fewer sacks per passing play, same result.
Originally posted by sacniner:
F*ck QB rating. Very misleading. Look at yards per game and points per game, it's down. I think our defense is as good as last years, even with fewer sacks. I love sacks a lot, especially in those crucial moments. But, just cause we have less sacks doesn't mean that we are worse on defense. Maybe opposing QB rating would be higher if we blitz more?

I for one knew that Carlos Rogers had a career year last year, and while he is still good, he would never have that type of year again. It's not bad to have some help back there for the CBs....

Idiotic.

Do you know that we're the best rushing team in over 25 years??? and you want to look at how many passing yards we have? Alex Smith is throwing for 14% more yards per attempt and we're rushing for 31% more yards per carry!!!
  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 24,158
we know for a fact our special teams coverage units are much much worse than last year. i still quibble a bit about our pass protection at times and i have issues with the coaching at times. we got outcoached in two losses and with the supposed wonder boys we have as coaches, that should not happen. i have some mild concerns about a back up outside linebacker but overall no real b***hes other than the special teams. tough tough scedule 5-2 in first place is ok with me
More reality:

Offensive points per drive: 1.93 in 2011, 2.19 in 2012. 13.5% increase
Defensive pts allowed/drive: 1.19 in 2011, 1.28 in 2012. 7.5% increase
** Net pts per drive: 0.74 in 2011, 0.92 in 2012. 24.3% INCREASE

Field position - why special teams matter:

Offensive starting field position: 33.4 yard line in 2011 (best in NFL), 28.75 yard line in 2012 (8th). 14% decrease
Defensive starting field position: 24 yard line in 2011 (best in NFL), 26.4 yard line (10th). 10% increase
Net starting field position: 9.4 yards better than opponent (best in NFL by far -- New England a distant 2nd at 4.9), 2.38 in 2012 (still 10th)

*** we had super-human field position in 2011. Perhaps the best in NFL history.

**** We had the best net field position since at least 1997 -- I don't have records before that. The next closest team? the 2000 Ravens at 8.06.

***** since our 2011 special teams were the best in NFL history (perhaps by a considerable distance), I'm not too concerned that we're back in top 10.
Originally posted by cciowa:
we know for a fact our special teams coverage units are much much worse than last year. i still quibble a bit about our pass protection at times and i have issues with the coaching at times. we got outcoached in two losses and with the supposed wonder boys we have as coaches, that should not happen. i have some mild concerns about a back up outside linebacker but overall no real b***hes other than the special teams. tough tough scedule 5-2 in first place is ok with me

We're still the 10th best in field position.
Defense is better. Our points per game allowed 7 games in is lower than last year. This year: 14.3: las year 15.3.

Our offense may have gotten worse:
2011 ppg: 26.7 (this includes the ST and Defensive TD's)
2012 ppg: 23.6