Pythagorean Standings, Not Adjusted for Strength of Schedule

Pythagorean trends are very powerful. If you overperform your Pythagorean, you underperform it the next year, and vice Versa.

The biggest overperformer past year was the packers.

underperformers? Vikings and Dolphins. MIN should have went 6-10 last year. Theyve improved, and will now (on average) win 2 or 3 more games than they should in 2012. So they'll go 10-6 or something like that

Forgot to say that the chiefs were the biggest overperformer if you look at the ratio of wins to Pythagorean.

They should have went 3-13 last year. They will this year.

Neat stat, you going to do this each week or is there a column somewhere that does this weekly?

Originally posted by izrath:
Neat stat, you going to do this each week or is there a column somewhere that does this weekly?

I could, sure.

Originally posted by nickbradley:
I could, sure.

Thread, watched.

Originally posted by nickbradley:
Pythagorean is used in Baseball. Here's the formula for the NFL - its simple:

[points scored]^2.37 / ([points scored]^2.37 + [points allowed]^2.37])

If it's that simple, I don't think it's telling me much at all.

How, for instance, does this statistic account for running up the score?

Or let's say we played a team with a really good field goal kicker....and eventhough the defense forced a fourth down, the kicker was able to nail some longshot FGs. Or what if our DBs got hit with some bad PI penalties that put the defense into a goalline situation and they gave up some points...

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by izrath:
Neat stat, you going to do this each week or is there a column somewhere that does this weekly?

I could, sure.

I love it. What I do is I take the median between Pythagorean and Jeff Sagarin computer ratings to get a true gauge of power rankings.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm