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Pythagorean Standings, Not Adjusted for Strength of Schedule

Here's a look at NFL Pythagorean Win Expectation Standings. This is probably the closest you can get to an objective power ranking. All you would have to do is normalize the Pythagorean scores for opponents' Pythagorean (i.e. strength of schedule). If you wanted to do that:

Football outsiders (will be updated tomorrow) has the 49ers with the 9th toughest schedule through the first 4 weeks. ATL was 26th, Chicago 19th, Baltimore 14th, Minnesota 20th.

We're basically in a three-way tie for the best team in the NFL with the Texans and Bears. Contrary to media fawning over the Atlanta Falcons, they are * not as good as their record...they should have two losses. Chicago no-showed to a rivalry game with the Packers...oops.

This matches with my preseason expectations going into the season: NFC championship game against the Bears, Super Bowl vs. the Texans.


Team /Pythagorean/ W Pct%
Houston Texans 0.872350672 1
San Francisco 49ers 0.865194284 0.8
Chicago Bears 0.85280861 0.8
Atlanta Falcons 0.750472203 1
Minnesota Vikings 0.729238804 0.8
Baltimore Ravens 0.710535953 0.8
New England Patriots 0.710369985 0.6
New York Giants 0.678090489 0.6
Seattle Seahawks 0.619604382 0.6
San Diego Chargers 0.613697583 0.6
Arizona Cardinals 0.608785197 0.8
Denver Broncos 0.59885845 0.4
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.526024611 0.5
St. Louis Rams 0.512471558 0.6
Green Bay Packers 0.505313737 0.4
Miami Dolphins 0.5 0.4
Cincinnati Bengals 0.481345702 0.6
Washington Redskins 0.471123995 0.4
New Orleans Saints 0.447935231 0.2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.438608227 0.25
Detroit Lions 0.422983673 0.25
Indianapolis Colts 0.389503089 0.5
Philadelphia Eagles 0.376359114 0.6
New York Jets 0.331003477 0.5
Dallas Cowboys 0.327835659 0.5
Carolina Panthers 0.325971019 0.2
Cleveland Browns 0.314222935 0
Buffalo Bills 0.279382936 0.4
Kansas City Chiefs 0.263617531 0.2
Oakland Raiders 0.185732412 0.25
Tennessee Titans 0.153274034 0.2
Jacksonville Jaguars 0.143773795 0.2
You hurt my head.
Interesting that Seattle is ranked above the Rams and Cardinals, but lost to both of them and has an equal or worse record.
Originally posted by goldstandard333:
You hurt my head.

Pythagorean is used in Baseball. Here's the formula for the NFL - its simple:

[points scored]^2.37 / ([points scored]^2.37 + [points allowed]^2.37])
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Interesting that Seattle is ranked above the Rams and Cardinals, but lost to both of them and has an equal or worse record.

SEA and ARI are so close that they're basically tied...and you remember how close that game was, right?

Also, there is no strength of schedule here.

** According to Footballoutsiders.com, the Arizona Cardinals have has the 2nd most difficult schedule through 4 weeks. Seattle? 18th. And those schedule differences won't change much this week.

^ so there's your explanation. STL had the 10th toughest schedule.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Interesting that Seattle is ranked above the Rams and Cardinals, but lost to both of them and has an equal or worse record.

SEA and ARI are so close that they're basically tied...and you remember how close that game was, right?

Also, there is no strength of schedule here.

** According to Footballoutsiders.com, the Arizona Cardinals have has the 2nd most difficult schedule through 4 weeks. Seattle? 18th. And those schedule differences won't change much this week.

^ so there's your explanation. STL had the 10th toughest schedule.

Thanks, good stuff.

FWIW, I would say our division would go...

49ers
Rams
Seahawks
Cardinals
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Thanks, good stuff.

FWIW, I would say our division would go...

49ers
Rams
Seahawks
Cardinals

I would put the Cards over the Seahawks because they played the Patriots and Eagles, beating the Pats and destroying the Eagles.

Seattle should have 1 - 2 wins.
Whatever happened to w vs. l
Originally posted by Allx9er:
Whatever happened to w vs. l

See: Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by goldstandard333:
You hurt my head.

Pythagorean is used in Baseball. Here's the formula for the NFL - its simple:

[points scored]^2.37 / ([points scored]^2.37 + [points allowed]^2.37])

In more real world terms: points scored vs. points allowed is usually a better way to measure "who's better?" than just wins and losses. The niners, texans and bears are regularly blowing teams out, which indicates more strength than the falcons' 5-0 record with several very close wins.

A win is a win, some say? Maybe. But against Carolina, the falcons won only because 1) cam newton fumbles for no reason with the game clinching first down in hand; 2) the panthers' idiot coach punts instead of going for it on fourth and short to clinch the win; 3) the panthers' idiot defenders somehow bite on a play action fake with Atlanta needing 70 yards to win with 50 seconds left and no time outs.

In other words, their win was mostly luck/opponent idiocy and not really indicative of future success
Jets are gonna win tonight.
Originally posted by ChazBoner:
Jets are gonna win tonight.

I would be shocked!
  • vaden
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,897
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Interesting that Seattle is ranked above the Rams and Cardinals, but lost to both of them and has an equal or worse record.

I still think Seattle is better, though the Rams may be better later this season if they can finally stay healthy.
  • vaden
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,897
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by Allx9er:
Whatever happened to w vs. l

See: Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks