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FootballOutsiders: 'Dewey Defeats DVOA!' (Vikings Didn't really outplay 49e

Acording to FootballOutsiders.com, the 49ers had a better VOA score than the Vikings on Friday, yet lost...the third "Dewey Defeats DVOA" this year. The Vikings won because they were able to make timely dump-off passes to Rudolph and (in particular) Harvin at the right time to convert third downs. Its a Flukish performance that is unlikely to be repeated.


Its probable that if Ponder doesn't complete that TD pass of his back foot while scrambling on the opening drive, the 49ers run the ball more because they're not down by 7 points, and probably win.



http://footballoutsiders.com/any-given-sunday/2012/any-given-sunday-vikings-over-49ers
Id really like to believe all this, but I hate the 49ers so much right now. Laying an egg on Sunday the way they did does not inspire any confidence from me what so ever. Thats a team we should have taken care of, and I dont believe in flukes. We just got beat up, and freaking deserved it.
I agree with this. IT was flukey. we would whip them 99 out of 100 times. im over it, lets kill the jets
Biggest fluke win of the year. We are still the best team in the NFL with the best defense!
Doesn't matter in the real world. Parcells had it right - "You are what your record says you are."

I thing we are THE BEST team in football but we have to prove it every single week. We need to go out every week and thoroughly beat the living hell out of everyone we play in all 4 phases of the game: Offense, Defense Special Teams and Coaching.

That means we need to start running the score up every single chance we get.
I think we have been and still are susceptible to the kinds of screen passes they ran to Harvin all day. Not related... the jury is still out on Aldon dropping out in coverage too IMO. Seems kind of lost at times. Could have gotten a little deeper on the 1st Rudolph TD to help out.

Tighten it up defense.

http://footballoutsiders.com/any-given-sunday/2012/any-given-sunday-vikings-over-49ers

I seriously don't know what some people see when they watch the games. oldman and some others, I'm sure you try very hard on your play by play but some things you say regarding Alex and your vision of what you see him do or must go through compared to other QB's is questioning:

From the article above:

Bill Barnwell called this game a case of the Vikings "out Niner-ing the Niners," and while that rings true to me in some ways, the Vikings also have an offensive philosophy in the passing game that the 49ers are not really built to stop.

Call of the Game
Minnesota faced fourth-and-goal from the 1 with 7:25 left in the first quarter. Many a head coach would be content to take the three and start the game with a lead, but Leslie Frazier would have none of it. He sent Christian Ponder out, called a play-action bootleg, and despite the fact that Dashon Goldson was barreling down on Ponder, Ponder sent a strike to Kyle Rudolph for seven.

"Adrian Peterson's presence and Ponder's own natural running ability allows Minnesota to run a lot of play-action."

"Right now, though, the passing portion of this offense is built on finding the first or second read, and putting the ball in Harvin's hands."


They rely heavily on Harvin and Ponder's ability to run. It wasn't just a "lucky" game by Ponder. That's what he does.
[ Edited by Joecool on Sep 26, 2012 at 9:38 AM ]
Originally posted by Kronos2560:
Id really like to believe all this, but I hate the 49ers so much right now. Laying an egg on Sunday the way they did does not inspire any confidence from me what so ever. Thats a team we should have taken care of, and I dont believe in flukes. We just got beat up, and freaking deserved it.

lol dude take it easy it was just one game. That's the first time I can remember the team looking like that and it came before a highly-anticipated week in Youngstown which would be followed by a game against the ESPN Jets. Even great teams lose and have off-days; performances like the one in Minnesota have been the exception not the rule (plus it's Week 3!) so I wouldn't get too worried yet. If we go 2-3/2-4 alarm bells will start ringing but right now they had a bad game in the first week they've ever been considered the hands-down best team in the NFL.

Remember, we weren't considered a "top-tier" team until we beat the Saints and that was only 5 games ago. This is a young team that is still learning and a smart coaching staff that absolutely despises losing; don't worry bro we got Harbaugh & Co.
[ Edited by foreign49er on Sep 26, 2012 at 9:40 AM ]
Originally posted by niners_guy:
I think we have been and still are susceptible to the kinds of screen passes they ran to Harvin all day. Not related... the jury is still out on Aldon dropping out in coverage too IMO. Seems kind of lost at times. Could have gotten a little deeper on the 1st Rudolph TD to help out.

Tighten it up defense.

We are not susceptible. It's our strategy to allow it. We take away the deep ball and call a teams patience to be a bluff. However, it is different when you are dealing with a QB that can run AND won't force it deep. Our defense philosphy can be stretched horizontally if a team is patient enough.
Originally posted by Kronos2560:
Id really like to believe all this, but I hate the 49ers so much right now. Laying an egg on Sunday the way they did does not inspire any confidence from me what so ever. Thats a team we should have taken care of, and I dont believe in flukes. We just got beat up, and freaking deserved it.


Cant disagree with this at all! I've been to every game at the Metrodome since Garcia and Owens and have yet to see this team win. In fact I've never seen the 49ers win period. I've been to a dozen games and they lost every single one!!!! Sick of it! I go up there this year expecting to not only win but win big and the Niners as you put it layed a huge fat b***h egg right at midfield. Couldn't afford the packers tickets but didn't care because this was the year I was finally going to see a W. Got a huge letdown instead as usual!
Originally posted by Joecool:
I seriously don't know what some people see when they watch the games. oldman and some others, I'm sure you try very hard on your play by play but some things you say regarding Alex and your vision of what you see him do or must go through compared to other QB's is questioning:

From the article above:

Quote:
Bill Barnwell called this game a case of the Vikings "out Niner-ing the Niners," and while that rings true to me in some ways, the Vikings also have an offensive philosophy in the passing game that the 49ers are not really built to stop.

Call of the Game
Minnesota faced fourth-and-goal from the 1 with 7:25 left in the first quarter. Many a head coach would be content to take the three and start the game with a lead, but Leslie Frazier would have none of it. He sent Christian Ponder out, called a play-action bootleg, and despite the fact that Dashon Goldson was barreling down on Ponder, Ponder sent a strike to Kyle Rudolph for seven.

"Adrian Peterson's presence and Ponder's own natural running ability allows Minnesota to run a lot of play-action."

"Right now, though, the passing portion of this offense is built on finding the first or second read, and putting the ball in Harvin's hands."


They rely heavily on Harvin and Ponder's ability to run. It wasn't just a "lucky" game by Ponder. That's what he does.

Ponder was "lucky" Whitner dropped that INT
Originally posted by boast:
Originally posted by Joecool:
I seriously don't know what some people see when they watch the games. oldman and some others, I'm sure you try very hard on your play by play but some things you say regarding Alex and your vision of what you see him do or must go through compared to other QB's is questioning:

From the article above:

Quote:
Bill Barnwell called this game a case of the Vikings "out Niner-ing the Niners," and while that rings true to me in some ways, the Vikings also have an offensive philosophy in the passing game that the 49ers are not really built to stop.

Call of the Game
Minnesota faced fourth-and-goal from the 1 with 7:25 left in the first quarter. Many a head coach would be content to take the three and start the game with a lead, but Leslie Frazier would have none of it. He sent Christian Ponder out, called a play-action bootleg, and despite the fact that Dashon Goldson was barreling down on Ponder, Ponder sent a strike to Kyle Rudolph for seven.

"Adrian Peterson's presence and Ponder's own natural running ability allows Minnesota to run a lot of play-action."

"Right now, though, the passing portion of this offense is built on finding the first or second read, and putting the ball in Harvin's hands."


They rely heavily on Harvin and Ponder's ability to run. It wasn't just a "lucky" game by Ponder. That's what he does.

Ponder was "lucky" Whitner dropped that INT

Yes, but you are comparing one play to a multiple of good plays he made happen. I will take what he does more of than one possible mistake.

He also has 4TD and 0 INT for the year.
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by boast:
Originally posted by Joecool:
I seriously don't know what some people see when they watch the games. oldman and some others, I'm sure you try very hard on your play by play but some things you say regarding Alex and your vision of what you see him do or must go through compared to other QB's is questioning:

From the article above:

<blockquote class="quote">
Quote:
Bill Barnwell called this game a case of the Vikings "out Niner-ing the Niners," and while that rings true to me in some ways, the Vikings also have an offensive philosophy in the passing game that the 49ers are not really built to stop.

Call of the Game
Minnesota faced fourth-and-goal from the 1 with 7:25 left in the first quarter. Many a head coach would be content to take the three and start the game with a lead, but Leslie Frazier would have none of it. He sent Christian Ponder out, called a play-action bootleg, and despite the fact that Dashon Goldson was barreling down on Ponder, Ponder sent a strike to Kyle Rudolph for seven.

"Adrian Peterson's presence and Ponder's own natural running ability allows Minnesota to run a lot of play-action."

"Right now, though, the passing portion of this offense is built on finding the first or second read, and putting the ball in Harvin's hands."


They rely heavily on Harvin and Ponder's ability to run. It wasn't just a "lucky" game by Ponder. That's what he does.

Ponder was "lucky" Whitner dropped that INT

Yes, but you are comparing one play to a multiple of good plays he made happen. I will take what he does more of than one possible mistake.

He also has 4TD and 0 INT for the year.
one play can change the outcome of the game.
Originally posted by Joecool:
Yes, but you are comparing one play to a multiple of good plays he made happen. I will take what he does more of than one possible mistake.

He also has 4TD and 0 INT for the year.

Sooner or later those throws he makes are gonna come back to bite him. Those 2 fadeaways passes aint gonna work all the time
Originally posted by WookieOftheYear:
I agree with this. IT was flukey. we would whip them 99 out of 100 times. im over it, lets kill the jets

This.

They played like it was the superbowl. niners played like it was in the bag.
BAD RECIPE IN THE NFL.