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OL Analysis 1st Down Production (Running Log)

Originally posted by BubbaParisMVP:
NCommand,

I haven't been logging in much this season, so I've missed this thread. This is very nicely done! Thank you for taking the time to compile this data. The former ubiquity of "first and eight" has been a huge bugaboo of mine for as I've been on this board, so this is my kind of thread!

Once I review your sources and methods, I'd like to put together a sister thread for "and short" downs. Given the size and power of our O-line and the substantial added weight of our jumbo package, I'd like to know what is going on there, and whether it is as bad as I suspect.

Great thread, I look forward to diving into it when I have the chance.

Thanks so much for the review and comments. I work off the very detailed analysis that Mr.Mcgibblets compiles each and every week on our offensive/defensive production or lack thereof of every single play, snap-by-snap (much like a PFF or FO's). He then provides his own analysis/objective perceptions. Please reference his links in the first post. I will continue to keep this rolling list and provide any analysis and trends I note. I'd highly recommend using his platform and that of Whomeam (pinned on the first page of NinerTalk) where you can SEE every play for yourself via TV and Coaches Film views while comparing notes with Mr.Mcgibblets' analysis. Chances are, you'll be 95%+ in agreement anyhow!

I look forward to your research/analysis! We are doing our best to capture the "big picture" offense here so this added piece that nobody has reviewed yet will be great! Feel free to add here (I can edit the title) or start a new thread.

We've covered drop passes %, OL pass protection (break downs), run blocking, WR/QB assessment, play-calling, game-planning, in-game adjustments, trends such first down production or that we score most of our TD's on first down, the type of passing offense we run (e.g. pass under 3 seconds to a designed WR where the other 10 players play a role in the success of that play; and issues with it when that only-option WR is covered), etc.

We haven't really covered 3rd down %'s as it hasn't been an issue d/t the success on first down (minus the Lions game where where 52% on 1st downs but won that game d/t production on 3rd downs).
Originally posted by tohara3:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Niner_Fan:
It's simple really if you think about it, on first down you just keep getting another first down you never have to worry about third down conversions ever again!

It really is! And believe me, Roman is clearly calling these DESIGNED plays to target weaknesses on 1st downs. We still need to improve more on 3rd down %'s (as Joe alluded to) but at least we aren't in constant 3rd and longs. Now it's just a matter of execution, repetition and consistency.


Agree. Really like the stats showing this every game and will be watching even closer on 1st down during the games to see how we attack a defenses weakness over and over.

Hey, you can even play a drinking game with it...if less than 4 yards are gained on first down, take a shot/drink. LOL!
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by tohara3:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Niner_Fan:
It's simple really if you think about it, on first down you just keep getting another first down you never have to worry about third down conversions ever again!

It really is! And believe me, Roman is clearly calling these DESIGNED plays to target weaknesses on 1st downs. We still need to improve more on 3rd down %'s (as Joe alluded to) but at least we aren't in constant 3rd and longs. Now it's just a matter of execution, repetition and consistency.


Agree. Really like the stats showing this every game and will be watching even closer on 1st down during the games to see how we attack a defenses weakness over and over.

Hey, you can even play a drinking game with it...if less than 4 yards are gained on first down, take a shot/drink. LOL!

Not sure I would make it to the 4th quarter! LOL!
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by tohara3:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Niner_Fan:
It's simple really if you think about it, on first down you just keep getting another first down you never have to worry about third down conversions ever again!

It really is! And believe me, Roman is clearly calling these DESIGNED plays to target weaknesses on 1st downs. We still need to improve more on 3rd down %'s (as Joe alluded to) but at least we aren't in constant 3rd and longs. Now it's just a matter of execution, repetition and consistency.


Agree. Really like the stats showing this every game and will be watching even closer on 1st down during the games to see how we attack a defenses weakness over and over.

Hey, you can even play a drinking game with it...if less than 4 yards are gained on first down, take a shot/drink. LOL!

Not sure I would make it to the 4th quarter! LOL!

Oh come on...last game we only had 9 times out of 33! Take one for the team! Ha
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by BubbaParisMVP:
NCommand,

I haven't been logging in much this season, so I've missed this thread. This is very nicely done! Thank you for taking the time to compile this data. The former ubiquity of "first and eight" has been a huge bugaboo of mine for as I've been on this board, so this is my kind of thread!

Once I review your sources and methods, I'd like to put together a sister thread for "and short" downs. Given the size and power of our O-line and the substantial added weight of our jumbo package, I'd like to know what is going on there, and whether it is as bad as I suspect.

Great thread, I look forward to diving into it when I have the chance.

Thanks so much for the review and comments. I work off the very detailed analysis that Mr.Mcgibblets compiles each and every week on our offensive/defensive production or lack thereof of every single play, snap-by-snap (much like a PFF or FO's). He then provides his own analysis/objective perceptions. Please reference his links in the first post. I will continue to keep this rolling list and provide any analysis and trends I note. I'd highly recommend using his platform and that of Whomeam (pinned on the first page of NinerTalk) where you can SEE every play for yourself via TV and Coaches Film views while comparing notes with Mr.Mcgibblets' analysis. Chances are, you'll be 95%+ in agreement anyhow!

I look forward to your research/analysis! We are doing our best to capture the "big picture" offense here so this added piece that nobody has reviewed yet will be great! Feel free to add here (I can edit the title) or start a new thread.

We've covered drop passes %, OL pass protection (break downs), run blocking, WR/QB assessment, play-calling, game-planning, in-game adjustments, trends such first down production or that we score most of our TD's on first down, the type of passing offense we run (e.g. pass under 3 seconds to a designed WR where the other 10 players play a role in the success of that play; and issues with it when that only-option WR is covered), etc.

We haven't really covered 3rd down %'s as it hasn't been an issue d/t the success on first down (minus the Lions game where where 52% on 1st downs but won that game d/t production on 3rd downs).

Football Outsiders does some of what Bubba is talking about. They call it Power Success (success rate on 3rd/4th and short) and Stuffed (% of runs stopped at or before LOS). However, I don't think they separate something like 2nd and short though.
Originally posted by Lobo49er:
Football Outsiders does some of what Bubba is talking about. They call it Power Success (success rate on 3rd/4th and short) and Stuffed (% of runs stopped at or before LOS). However, I don't think they separate something like 2nd and short though.

Nice. I'm assuming we're pretty low in this stat? 3rd and shorts and goal line situations? 4th and short downs?
This is some good stuff to check out, NC...

http://footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2012/film-room-49ers-giants

also good stuff to scroll through and soak up...

http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/splits/_/name/sf/san-francisco-49ers
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
This is some good stuff to check out, NC...

http://footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2012/film-room-49ers-giants

also good stuff to scroll through and soak up...

http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/splits/_/name/sf/san-francisco-49ers

Good stuff and looking out!

But they stole my analysis...LOL

3. First-and-10. The 49ers are averaging 6.8 yards per play on first down, second-best in the NFL, behind Carolina. They rank first in DVOA on this down (42.9%). It's not just because they're running well: Smith is completing 77 percent of his passes and has accumulated 639 of his 1,087 passing yards on first down. His passer rating on first downs is 137.3; on second down it's 87.0, and third down it's 84.2.


Side note: The NY Giants game in the NFCCG was THE reason this thread exists today. So you can BET, I'll be watching extra closely on how we do on 1st downs. The Giants did a great job stuffing us on 1st downs and we had very little production...lead to many 3rd and longs and 1 for 13. This will be a good measure for us and our offense; Giants have excellent coaches and scheme very well. No doubt they are going to cover tight up at the LOS again, be physical and perhaps run blitz 8-9 in between the T's again. Let's see....
[ Edited by NCommand on Oct 11, 2012 at 4:32 PM ]
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
This is some good stuff to check out, NC...

http://footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2012/film-room-49ers-giants

also good stuff to scroll through and soak up...

http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/splits/_/name/sf/san-francisco-49ers

Very good stuff Mac, thanks. Throws in the 21 to 30 yard range are very successful, though it's a small sample. The other site was interesting as well, but I have known for some time that the NYG coaching staff was very good...they beat the niners in the playoffs!
Originally posted by NCommand:
Good stuff and looking out!

But they stole my analysis...LOL

3. First-and-10. The 49ers are averaging 6.8 yards per play on first down, second-best in the NFL, behind Carolina. They rank first in DVOA on this down (42.9%). It's not just because they're running well: Smith is completing 77 percent of his passes and has accumulated 639 of his 1,087 passing yards on first down. His passer rating on first downs is 137.3; on second down it's 87.0, and third down it's 84.2.


Side note: The NY Giants game in the NFCCG was THE reason this thread exists today. So you can BET, I'll be watching extra closely on how we do on 1st downs. The Giants did a great job stuffing us on 1st downs and we had very little production...lead to many 3rd and longs and 1 for 13. This will be a good measure for us and our offense; Giants have excellent coaches and scheme very well. No doubt they are going to cover tight up at the LOS again, be physical and perhaps run blitz 8-9 in between the T's again. Let's see....


It's amazing the Panthers lead that statistic, but it doesn't translate to winning. They're 25th in point differential (-33) and the Niners (+81) lead this category.
Interestingly the seven teams below Carolina in point differential are all in the AFC.
Originally posted by ninerjok:
It's amazing the Panthers lead that statistic, but it doesn't translate to winning. They're 25th in point differential (-33) and the Niners (+81) lead this category.
Interestingly the seven teams below Carolina in point differential are all in the AFC.

That's a good one! I guess that means we're more "efficient" then anyone.
won't be my OL analysis for this short week, but I thought these grades from PFF were worth sharing...

(and if not, too f**king bad)

Anthony D got an appropriately awful grade for last Sunday. 3 sacks... a hit and 6 hurries.

Goodwin in the negative with 5 hurries.

Iupati with a "meh" grade with 1 hit and 1 hurry

Boone with a "meh" grade with 1 sack and 3 hurries

Staley with a "meh" grade with 1 hit and 2 hurries

LD with a poor grade with 1 sack 1 hit and 2 hurries



Alex Smith with his first negative grade of the season.
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
won't be my OL analysis for this short week, but I thought these grades from PFF were worth sharing...

(and if not, too f**king bad)

Anthony D got an appropriately awful grade for last Sunday. 3 sacks... a hit and 6 hurries.

Goodwin in the negative with 5 hurries.

Iupati with a "meh" grade with 1 hit and 1 hurry

Boone with a "meh" grade with 1 sack and 3 hurries

Staley with a "meh" grade with 1 hit and 2 hurries

LD with a poor grade with 1 sack 1 hit and 2 hurries



Alex Smith with his first negative grade of the season.

Correlation perhaps? How about Eli and his OL? LMAO

No rush but this was my benchmark game to see how much we learned from the NFCCG. I'm VERY curious to see how we did on first down production this week (including the SeaHawks game).

Go Giants...that's San Francisco Giants!
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
won't be my OL analysis for this short week, but I thought these grades from PFF were worth sharing...

(and if not, too f**king bad)

Anthony D got an appropriately awful grade for last Sunday. 3 sacks... a hit and 6 hurries.

Goodwin in the negative with 5 hurries.

Iupati with a "meh" grade with 1 hit and 1 hurry

Boone with a "meh" grade with 1 sack and 3 hurries

Staley with a "meh" grade with 1 hit and 2 hurries

LD with a poor grade with 1 sack 1 hit and 2 hurries



Alex Smith with his first negative grade of the season.

Correlation perhaps? How about Eli and his OL? LMAO

No rush but this was my benchmark game to see how much we learned from the NFCCG. I'm VERY curious to see how we did on first down production this week (including the SeaHawks game).

Go Giants...that's San Francisco Giants!

LOL! Correlation sensation I would think! Even though "they're" back, we should all know that this is a team game. Can't understand the lack of carries for Gore and many other aspects of the game. Hope this is just a bump in the road...OK...a boulder in the road; just don't want to see them derailed. I really don't expect much on Thursday night--just too much of a jarring blow to absorb and overcome. But if they do well then it will really show character!
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
won't be my OL analysis for this short week, but I thought these grades from PFF were worth sharing...

(and if not, too f**king bad)

Anthony D got an appropriately awful grade for last Sunday. 3 sacks... a hit and 6 hurries.

Goodwin in the negative with 5 hurries.

Iupati with a "meh" grade with 1 hit and 1 hurry

Boone with a "meh" grade with 1 sack and 3 hurries

Staley with a "meh" grade with 1 hit and 2 hurries

LD with a poor grade with 1 sack 1 hit and 2 hurries



Alex Smith with his first negative grade of the season.

Correlation perhaps? How about Eli and his OL? LMAO

No rush but this was my benchmark game to see how much we learned from the NFCCG. I'm VERY curious to see how we did on first down production this week (including the SeaHawks game).

Go Giants...that's San Francisco Giants!

LOL! Correlation sensation I would think! Even though "they're" back, we should all know that this is a team game. Can't understand the lack of carries for Gore and many other aspects of the game. Hope this is just a bump in the road...OK...a boulder in the road; just don't want to see them derailed. I really don't expect much on Thursday night--just too much of a jarring blow to absorb and overcome. But if they do well then it will really show character!

I like the must-win mentality! We drafted "character" so lets see it tomorrow night!