There are 172 users in the forums

Remember
Not a member? Register Now!

OL Analysis 1st Down Production (Running Log)

NY Jets game is up...see first page for the running log!
Now that we have four games up do you see improvement or stagnation? I have noticed that a lot of games this year start out slow, lots of back and forth and then in the adjustments made at half time then the scores go up radically. Houston has probably been the most consistent team so far in the sense of steadily scoring in each quarter. It seems like in our games it seems that the goal is to wear away on you until the fourth quarter and then we score in a burst and then pound with the ground game.
Originally posted by Ninefan56:
Now that we have four games up do you see improvement or stagnation? I have noticed that a lot of games this year start out slow, lots of back and forth and then in the adjustments made at half time then the scores go up radically. Houston has probably been the most consistent team so far in the sense of steadily scoring in each quarter. It seems like in our games it seems that the goal is to wear away on you until the fourth quarter and then we score in a burst and then pound with the ground game.

Huge improvement on 1st down production. HUGE. Anytime you are gaining 4+ yards or more on 1st down 72%, 52%, 61% & 66% of the time you are putting yourself in position to open up the playbook on 2nd and 3rd downs. You are also controlling the clock by moving the chains. It also reduces the importance of the 3rd down %'s b/c you are moving up and down the field...drive fails? You're still in position to kick a FG or pin a team deep.

And this is a monumental improvement from the NFCCG and last year, in general.

But here is where I see the biggest improvement. It's the overall production on 1st downs...for instance, look at half of the first down production in the Jets game. Not only did we have 35 first down chances (huge), we had enormous gains on half of them: 17, 13, 26, 11, 9, 23, 8, 12, 12, 12, 25, 13 & 9.

Dink-and-dunk WCO passing game? I think not!

Now, I don't know about you but this is pretty remarkable for only 1.25 years in the WCO (it takes three years to install) and we are doing this w/o any real deep packages installed and two new starting WR's.

Naturally, we still have areas we need to become more efficient in but this is very encouraging.
[ Edited by NCommand on Oct 2, 2012 at 7:12 PM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Huge improvement on 1st down production. HUGE. Anytime you are gaining 4+ yards or more on 1st down 72%, 52%, 61% & 66% of the time you are putting yourself in position to open up the playbook on 2nd and 3rd downs. You are also controlling the clock by moving the chains. It also reduces the importance of the 3rd down %'s b/c you are moving up and down the field...drive fails? You're still in position to kick a FG or pin a team deep.

And this is a monumental improvement from the NFCCG and last year, in general.

But here is where I see the biggest improvement. It's the overall production on 1st downs...for instance, look at half of the first down production in the Jets game. Not only did we have 35 first down chances (huge), we had enormous gains on half of them: 17, 13, 26, 11, 9, 23, 8, 12, 12, 12, 25, 13 & 9.

Dink-and-dunk WCO passing game? I think not!

Now, I don't know about you but this is pretty remarkable for only 1.25 years in the WCO (it takes three years to install) and we are doing this w/o any real deep packages installed and two new starting WR's.

Naturally, we still have areas we need to become more efficient in but this is very encouraging.

Thanks for referring back to the other thread, I'd missed the update. I noticed that penalties seem way down for our O's movement before the snap or off-sides. This will really help the third down situations.
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Thanks for referring back to the other thread, I'd missed the update. I noticed that penalties seem way down for our O's movement before the snap or off-sides. This will really help the third down situations.

You're right! That was a huge issue last year and they always seemed to be at the most inopportune time. Thanks for your review. One of the things Alex does have control on is pre snap reads and the control to roll with it or kill the play (e.g. change the play from pass to run or from run to pass out of a formation pre snap). Alex has become a master at this. Some of the big plays noted above are RUNS on 1st down b/c of Alex checking out of a pass play to the correct play catching the defense off-guard. That is another element the haters are ignoring; the I.Q. it takes to lead HaRoman's offense. And that he is already an "expert" after just one year. I agree with Alex though...I still think he has a ways to go (more to learn).
[ Edited by NCommand on Oct 3, 2012 at 7:44 AM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Ninefan56:
Now that we have four games up do you see improvement or stagnation? I have noticed that a lot of games this year start out slow, lots of back and forth and then in the adjustments made at half time then the scores go up radically. Houston has probably been the most consistent team so far in the sense of steadily scoring in each quarter. It seems like in our games it seems that the goal is to wear away on you until the fourth quarter and then we score in a burst and then pound with the ground game.

Huge improvement on 1st down production. HUGE. Anytime you are gaining 4+ yards or more on 1st down 72%, 52%, 61% & 66% of the time you are putting yourself in position to open up the playbook on 2nd and 3rd downs. You are also controlling the clock by moving the chains. It also reduces the importance of the 3rd down %'s b/c you are moving up and down the field...drive fails? You're still in position to kick a FG or pin a team deep.

And this is a monumental improvement from the NFCCG and last year, in general.

But here is where I see the biggest improvement. It's the overall production on 1st downs...for instance, look at half of the first down production in the Jets game. Not only did we have 35 first down chances (huge), we had enormous gains on half of them: 17, 13, 26, 11, 9, 23, 8, 12, 12, 12, 25, 13 & 9.

Dink-and-dunk WCO passing game? I think not!

Now, I don't know about you but this is pretty remarkable for only 1.25 years in the WCO (it takes three years to install) and we are doing this w/o any real deep packages installed and two new starting WR's.

Naturally, we still have areas we need to become more efficient in but this is very encouraging.

LOL! Not only are our coaches going against the grain in terms of the philosophy of offense, they are going against the grain in terms of which down is the most important.

It would be interesting to see the overall percentages of teams that convert 3rd downs. Anything under 40 is NOT a favorable percentage. Maybe we are valuing 1st down as the most important down to convert 1st downs.

Mind blown.
It's simple really if you think about it, on first down you just keep getting another first down you never have to worry about third down conversions ever again!
Originally posted by Niner_Fan:
It's simple really if you think about it, on first down you just keep getting another first down you never have to worry about third down conversions ever again!

It really is! And believe me, Roman is clearly calling these DESIGNED plays to target weaknesses on 1st downs. We still need to improve more on 3rd down %'s (as Joe alluded to) but at least we aren't in constant 3rd and longs. Now it's just a matter of execution, repetition and consistency.
[ Edited by NCommand on Oct 3, 2012 at 3:24 PM ]
Bills game analysis up with link
[ Edited by NCommand on Oct 9, 2012 at 1:52 PM ]
^^ Streamlined this info for you (see top of page 1). It should be easier to follow now and you can refer to the links for detailed information on every down, including 3rd downs.^^

I think you all will be very happy with the production we are putting up on 1st downs and the TYPE of production as well. It's been very impressive.

Go Niners!
[ Edited by NCommand on Oct 9, 2012 at 1:26 PM ]
Originally posted by Joecool:
LOL! Not only are our coaches going against the grain in terms of the philosophy of offense, they are going against the grain in terms of which down is the most important.

It would be interesting to see the overall percentages of teams that convert 3rd downs. Anything under 40 is NOT a favorable percentage. Maybe we are valuing 1st down as the most important down to convert 1st downs.

Mind blown.

LOL...just saw this! Only you Joe...but yeah, you're right!
Totals % of 4+ Yards on 1st Down:
Game 1 (Green Bay) = 13 out of 18 = 72%
Game 2 (Detroit) = 15 out of 29 = 52%
Game 3 (Minnesota) = 17 out of 28 = 61%
Game 4 (New YorkJ) = 23 out of 35 = 66%
Game 5 (Buffalo) = 24 out of 33 = 73%

Very cool stat to keep up with.. thanks for doing this, NC.
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
Totals % of 4+ Yards on 1st Down:
Game 1 (Green Bay) = 13 out of 18 = 72%
Game 2 (Detroit) = 15 out of 29 = 52%
Game 3 (Minnesota) = 17 out of 28 = 61%
Game 4 (New YorkJ) = 23 out of 35 = 66%
Game 5 (Buffalo) = 24 out of 33 = 73%

Very cool stat to keep up with.. thanks for doing this, NC.

Couldn't do it w/o you, man! My pleasure...will be interesting to see how we continue on this tear.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Niner_Fan:
It's simple really if you think about it, on first down you just keep getting another first down you never have to worry about third down conversions ever again!

It really is! And believe me, Roman is clearly calling these DESIGNED plays to target weaknesses on 1st downs. We still need to improve more on 3rd down %'s (as Joe alluded to) but at least we aren't in constant 3rd and longs. Now it's just a matter of execution, repetition and consistency.


Agree. Really like the stats showing this every game and will be watching even closer on 1st down during the games to see how we attack a defenses weakness over and over.
NCommand,

I haven't been logging in much this season, so I've missed this thread. This is very nicely done! Thank you for taking the time to compile this data. The former ubiquity of "first and eight" has been a huge bugaboo of mine for as I've been on this board, so this is my kind of thread!

Once I review your sources and methods, I'd like to put together a sister thread for "and short" downs. Given the size and power of our O-line and the substantial added weight of our jumbo package, I'd like to know what is going on there, and whether it is as bad as I suspect.

Great thread, I look forward to diving into it when I have the chance.
[ Edited by BubbaParisMVP on Oct 10, 2012 at 12:47 AM ]