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Really? 7.2 Wins?

  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 26,910
Originally posted by WildBill:
Then how do you explain some of the games where the defense failed-even in games we won?

To say no film will help is incorrect. We are creatures of habits and tendencies. You just have to find it. does a guy do this when you do that, does the defense does this when you do that? You look at film, see how they are playing in the games thencompare how they are playing in the game with you and adjust. You here about it from all the great players from Ray Lewis to P Willis, to Ronnie Lott, they all study film and then some. Jerry studied a lot also, he didn't just work it on the hill, he worked in the film room with Walsh-why do you think he got the best of Dieon and not vice versa.
no defense is perfect but ours is as close as you can get. sure they will have some bumps in the road but they always make plays when they need to. i think a better group of wide outs and the second year in our offense and all the work alex did in the off season will keep that defense on the sidelines a bit more and a bit more refreshed. oh and the reason we had success vs deon is cuz we ran sweeps at him and he was afraid to tackle. oh when anyone talks about film , i have nightmares of the former guy here who thought he was a coach its simple, we just keep doing those little things well. sure the other team will study us in the off season like one would study a bug under a microscope but i am sure our defensive coaches and players are not setting around playing checkers this off season, they are working on some new things to but like i said we execute the basics well, avoid major mistakes and major injuries, our defense is top two
Keep in mind when talking about film. Teams aren't just looking at what their opponent's tendancies are but their own as well. To try and curb some of the "tells" that other teams may pick up on or how to use that "tell" as a "bluff" etc.

Computers can crunch numbers and make all kinds of predictions but it can't account for the "human" aspect and the chaos that creates.
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Hmm, I would say you would need a lot more evidence than anecdotal dreams of becoming some extreme version of the Packers or Patriots or Saints. First and foremost the league itself has been engineered for parity based on high scoring contests. Look at the most recent world champs and how they got to the Super Bowl - it wasn't a string of blowouts during the regular season that got them there. They got hot at the right time and won games first against teams they should beat and then pulled off a couple of key wins against closely matched opponents and finally a rare upset. String those wins together and you have a winning teamed headed into the playoffs.

What I found interesting about the FO article was that NO team had more than something like 8.4 wins on average. Interesting. Furthermore, it's not clearly established what a teams baseline performance would be in order to predict performance over the next few games and over a season. So did we see a baseline performance of both special teams, offense and defense? Was it the average? Was it the high point? It's impossible to predict a teams performance accurately or even generally because simply there isn't enough data. Any performance data prior to the Harbaugh regime can't possibly be part of a credible data set in the analysis. Furthermore what other important aspect doesn't this statistical analysis miss? New players. New schemes. Health.

There is a trend more credible than this analysis; good organizations seem to consistently put a better product on the field in many cases despite the variable impact of new players/lost players, schemes (or coaches) and health. Those teams always find themselves competitive, making it easier to ride a wave of fortune or weather a wave of bad luck. It starts with a FO that understand what type of players the HC needs and the HC finding a staff that teaches players how to execute and scheme that maximizes those players talents while minimizing their weaknesses. Of course players with more talent have less weaknesses and that certainly plays a part.

I think the Niners will win more than 7.1 games because I have more faith that this team will be even better prepared (on offense) on game days than all the teams in their division - even with them "gunning" for the 49ers.

Good post. I found the bolded part to be interesting as well.

The reason for this is FO's belief that, eventually, teams will gravitate back towards the mean. In a typical normal season, the worst team will have about 2 wins, while the best will have about 14. Their calculations make every team gravitate toward 8 wins, and as a result, only 4 teams are projected to get 10 wins. In addition, the lowest win total is around 5 wins. Not to mention, their predictions are based entirely on last season's metrics, only adjusting for the new schedule and a few obvious personnel changes (ex. Manning to Denver). Very flawed way to analyze football IMO.
[ Edited by SofaKing on Jul 19, 2012 at 6:29 PM ]
I do believe that they will certainly take step back record wise... I'm thinking 10-6... but they still win the West. No one else in the NFC West is that much improved... MAYBE the Seahawks because of their D. Maybe.
I can't wait to see the .2 win. I wonder who it will be against? Is that supposed to be a win by a safety?
Originally posted by danimal:
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by danimal:
I agree with them 100%.

First off, the fact that the Niners appeared in the NFC Championship game last season is not nearly enough to rest your hat on. This forum really amazes me. All I have heard over the last decade about other teams is how much they suck, and when they make it to the Championship game or even the Super Bowl(Seahawks cough, Cardinals cough) is how much of a flluke it was and how they won't repeat. AND YOU WERE RIGHT, they pretty much did suck and they did NOT repeat.

Now its our turn and somehow and for some magical reason it's different. Take the homer glasses off and listen to what Football Outsiders is saying.

They are saying we won far too many close games last season and statistically that almost never carries over to the next season.

Odds are the Niners won't be over performing again next season and further yet they may lose a majority of the close games that Championship caliber squads avoid but the Niners seem to always play for.

Too many close games, The D and ST must came back to earth at some point, and Alex Smith is well....Alex Smith

I'm sorry, but there is no way we only win 7 games. Too much talent, and good coaching. Even in 2010 we managed 6 wins, and that season was a complete train-wreck.

Perhaps I'm delusional, but don't good teams typically win close games? You just can't say "If you take away most of their close wins, they wouldn't make the playoffs." Well no s**t. If you take away most of the close wins from any good team, they probably don't make the playoffs. That's like saying if you took away most of Barry Sanders big runs, his stats weren't that great.

The point is, this team is stacked with talent and did nothing but improve during the off-season. All 11 starters return on D, improved offense, great special teams, continuity, and top-notch coaching. What's not to like?


good teams blow out their opponents typically. That is how you get out of "one hit wonder" "fluke" status. Statistical analysis shows that teams generally don't have winning records, 2 seasons in a row....when asked to play in close contests at a higher than average rate

Anybody who thinks this season hinges on the Defense is off their rocker....you better look at the Offense for once and ask....where is our 21-0 jump starts??

Agreed...AS had better be lights out this year. I would have to say a high percent of Niner winning football this year is on his shoulders. The FO has given him all the missing pieces this year, and he has the "legendary' 2nd year in the same Offense, and Harbaugh for the 2nd year, to boot..

So QB Smith, buckle up, hit the WRs in stride, spread the rock around and score, and score often. Then let the D dismantle teams as they try to catch up. If not, anyone care to guess who's head falls at the end of the season?

Gonna be a hellasious season!

NINERS!!
[ Edited by Bali-Niner on Jul 19, 2012 at 10:06 PM ]
They predict 2012 regression to the mean based on the trend established over the four seasons prior to 2011. It does not take into account that over those four seasons we had possibly the worst coaching staff in the league and now we have one of the strongest. 2011 is the start of a new mean.
[ Edited by SonocoNinerFan on Jul 19, 2012 at 10:14 PM ]
If, If, If...my aunt had balz she'd be my uncle. The comment that we had such miraculous minor injuries is a joke. At end of season our receiving corps was craps, vernon, kyle, frank....and that includes a RB and TE. We had no other receivers, unless I forgot someone. Somebody is guilty of faulty statistics. We got decimated by losses to guys who could catch the ball. Delanie, morgan, ginn, to name but 3. Also we lost our PR in ginn. Also we had an OL less good than this one. Where is that stuff, and i am just doing this off my head with one read on this article. Also we had a 3 yr catastrophe OL in chilo. Where was that in the stats. At end of yr alex had virtually nobody to throw to. This stuff is bs. Give me half an hour and I will debunk it some more. I believe it was written. I don't believe it is factual. Also are COY and GM of yr both going to fall on their faces? Probably not. Will teams be gunning for us? sure. Great article...for a dart board.
Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
They predict 2012 regression to the mean based on the trend established over the four seasons prior to 2011. It does not take into account that over those four seasons we had possibly the worst coaching staff in the league and now we have one of the strongest. 2011 is the start of a new mean.

they arent taking into account the additions of moss, manningham, james, that all 11 starters on defense are returning, etc.

lets say we traded and got tom brady, it seems they would dismiss that and just stick with their "a quick turnaround to 13-3 means they will regress to 7 or so games the next year" theory.
what these stat geeks and other nfl fans in denial need to understand is that we are for real. it wasn't by luck or anomaly that we got already one of the best NFL head coaching staffs right outta college off a lockout shortened offseason with an unsettled qb position all while jettisoning clements spikes lawson baas etc, etc, etc. Jimmy took alex smith and got 14 wins from him all while going out east to beat DET, CIN, PHI, WAS, and lost to BAL primarily because of 1 day to prepare. Then we fielded arguably the NFL's top defense in points allowed and turnovers forced best run defense by far along with yielding the NFL best special teams and sending 7? players to honolulu. we played consistently all year long and never lost a game by more than 7 points aside from that no chance to win game at BAL unlike the NYG who got hot and got lucky down the stretch and we still had to fumble the game away for them to win thus preventing our 6th Lombardi. Now all of a sudden some other squad out west is gonna prevent us from winning the division. the only games that stand out to me to be different from last year is that we gotta play NE and GB. well NE and GB are one dimensional and we don't have to play PIT DAL PHI CIN and BAL this season so don't give me that easy schedule crap. we already beat NYG NO DET last year. we beat a lot of teams last season on the road against all odds with a rookie coach and no offseason. despite everything we were in each and every game, took no games off all year and made everyone earn the few wins we yielded. we were the truth last year then we bring back the defense and add explosive playmakers to the offense with a real offseason to get better and go in knowing the plays and what coach expects. hell i expect an even better team. maybe not 13 wins but definitely a good team with a chance to win it all this season. and btw, harbaugh is here and we have the right guy in charge to be competitive on NE BAL PIT PHI NYG NO level from here on out. i don't need a stat sheet to tell me this
[ Edited by Pillbusta on Jul 19, 2012 at 11:48 PM ]
Those stats are skewed
Why?
Because singletary and Nolan lost us games!!!
There is no escape... we must forfeit the season now, keep our players fresh, there is no hope... THE BEAST NEVER LIES!!! @_@


gentlemen...please...

Based on game simulations last season, weren't we predicted to win 5 games?...didn't we nearly triple that number? The simulations don't take in to account offseason additions, by the way. It's based on last seasons numbers. We shouldn't have to replicate the special teams touchdowns and turnover ratio with the new crop of talent.

We're essentially debating the equivalent of someone starting a Madden franchise and simulating the season...
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
If, If, If...my aunt had balz she'd be my uncle. The comment that we had such miraculous minor injuries is a joke. At end of season our receiving corps was craps, vernon, kyle, frank....and that includes a RB and TE. We had no other receivers, unless I forgot someone. Somebody is guilty of faulty statistics. We got decimated by losses to guys who could catch the ball. Delanie, morgan, ginn, to name but 3. Also we lost our PR in ginn. Also we had an OL less good than this one. Where is that stuff, and i am just doing this off my head with one read on this article. Also we had a 3 yr catastrophe OL in chilo. Where was that in the stats. At end of yr alex had virtually nobody to throw to. This stuff is bs. Give me half an hour and I will debunk it some more. I believe it was written. I don't believe it is factual. Also are COY and GM of yr both going to fall on their faces? Probably not. Will teams be gunning for us? sure. Great article...for a dart board.

I don't believe we will regress to 7 or 8 wins. However, if you read the article by Kevin Lynch who talked to the person of FO, he said nothing about being lucky in so far as injuries go to the offense, it was about the defense not suffering any catostrophic injuries on defense. Yes Willis was out for a couple of games, but it wasn't catostophic. They didn't take into account the offense except that Alex threw and incredibly low amount of int. and rarely turned the ball over and that they don't expect those kind of numbers again, as for the numbers they felt the D and special teams played as high as any team can play in the league and that it is hard for any team (even the Ravens and Steelers on D) to keep that up which is true. they are not saying that they won't be a good D, but the numbers aren't possible since the level of the competition and the offenses are supposed to be better and in theory they are right. The special teams, Ackers had 44 FGs! That is incredible in the history of the game period. Especially in Candlestick with the winds. Then there is Andy Lee, his Net yds punting is incredile to, his net is what some average before the return. Will we have the same success covering with the change in personell on ST coverage this year? Will his punts get hung up in the air at candlestick. Will Ginn be just as good or will he make mistakes (he has had bad years where he fumbles on returns you know) in candlestick etc.

They are not also really taking into account the previous 4 years of the niners just the last two. What they were taking into account was the league trend of 26 of 29 teams that went from 7-9 or worst to double digit wins, averaged a loss of 4 more game the next season. In that regard there average should be in this case 9-7 not seven and nine. Maybe that is where the other stats come in. Still

If anything they did not take into account the possible improvement on offense, which, if the D and ST slides back a little will need to ramp it up. However, like I said, so what if we don't win the amount of games as we did last year or the D and ST doesn't play like last year. It is about gelling at the right moment like the giants did in their last 2 SB victories, like the niners did with young in the last SB appearance. After all look at what happened to the packers and patriots - almost undefeated then left short of the trophies. I rather we improve and win it all than try to match our stats of last year.

Can someone please tell me what is it about the Seahawks that compels "experts" to think they'll win every year? 7.2 with Seattle? My goodness, they must really hate this team. Just imagine what'll happen if/when we win the SB again.

Anyway, I must admit as a fan this type of stuff, while not surprising, just burns me up. But I (and we) also have to keep it in perspective. We just went through YEARS of meritocracy and under achievement. How many people thought the Pats were just "lucky" when they had their 1st winning season under Bill Parcells? It took Belichick and a SB to cement them as a true power. We won't get these people's respect until we, not just beat, but run up the score on the Pats, Packers, et. al, then win the SB. It's just that simple (then again look at how they treat the Giants).

Now, having said that, as for the "prognosticators": (form http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2012/07/inside-the-49ers/football-outsiders-projects-the-niners-to-win-7-2-games/)

"The 49ers actually won 2.2 more games in 2011 than they should have accord­ing to Estimated Wins. Since 1991, that discrepancy translates to about two more losses the following sea­son. The 49ers outperformed their Estimated Wins number due in part to a fabulous 7-2 record in close games. We've found that a team's record in close games almost never carries over from one season to the next, so the 49ers can't expect to win as many games in 2012 without getting out to some bigger leads. . . . Although Alex Smith has posted a better-than-average interception rate in each of the past two seasons, his 1.1-percent rate from 2011 is unsustainable…Only 5.4 percent of 49ers offensive drives ended in a turnover, the lowest figure in our drive stats data that goes back to 1997. 23.9 percent of 49ers drives ended in a field goal, the highest figure since 1997."

This is just sicking!! First, the 49ers didn't really outperform. In years past they haven't performed up to the talent on the team due to horrible coaching and poor choice of coaches. I find it interesting that teams like the Chargers, Seahawks, Eagles, Jets and Cowgirls year after year seem to "disappoint" and "underachieve" in the experts eye yet still get their blessings as favorites as SB attendees, only to "disappoint" the experts and "underachieve" yet again. Second, what they don't understand about those close wins is that we, for once since Walsh, actually had a coaching staff with a clue, a plan, and knows how to use the given roster talent in relations to what they want to offensively achieve. When you look at those close wins it's pretty clear those teams were out-coached. Finally, Alex Smith's INT rate is, I agree, unsustainable. Now I didn't buy the full article, but fro what I did read from the link above it seems that they didn't take how the coaching staff handled Alex last season that contributed to that INT rate. This season the coaching staff is gonna open the playbook to Alex and give him complete responsibility. So naturally he'll get more INT's.

Bottom line, 7.2 is a gross disrespect to the team and the coaching staff. And I'm sure this will serve as motivational tools by JH & Co. These people shut the f__k up with a SB win.